Spekulatius

I don’t think Brexit is a huge risk, as it is in both the EU (Airbus) and the UK‘s interest to keep the supply chain intact. As for getting acquired, one has to consider that RR is a strategic asset for Britain and the government has a veto in important matters via a golden share. So, I don’t think that an acquisition by PE is in the cards. My big concern is that in the case RR‘s future looks financially shaky, the government is going to facilitate a capital raise and doing what’s best for the UK, shareholder value be damned.

I think part of the answer for the battery may be that that peak power is only needed during takeoff or in emergencies, so maybe not much stored energy is needed if a hybrid tech is used. Otherwise it’s correct that the power density of batteries is way too low to completely replace kerosene powered jet engines. Kclarkin is correct that the A350 is a competitor to the larger 787 and not the 737 max. In any case, they are not affected by the 737 max disaster, unlike GE potentially.

The stock has trended down (after the Valueact representative left the board and they presumable started to sell down their position) and I have added a bit to my position, it don’t have the cojones to make this a major bet. they will announce their 2019 results on February 28 and so far every earnings announcement has been an disappointment. I am particularly concerned about the FCF numbers , as those were very weak for the half year results and I think rating agencies have them under the microscope. Then there is concern about further deterioration of the Trent 1000 and of course any news with problem with the Trent XWB engine (their largest program) would be a killer. That said, this trades at 0.8x revenues and if they can turn this around, it should beantworte at least 2x the still growing revenues at some point. So I think we are looking st least at a 2 bagger plus organic growth if they turn this around. Also the Boeing woes are a tailwind for RR, since they are sole supplier for the A350 and their largest product. The A350 is the main competitor to Boeing’s 737 max and I expect it will do very well.

It’s true that building in Texas is comparably easy, which holds housing prices down, but I think that may change for two reasons that are probably somewhat related: 1) demographics are changing and Texas become “bluer” and at some point attitudes towards zoning etc will become more like in California. 2j The expansion is space has its limit with the millennial generation that can exist any more if there isn’t a Chipotle and Starbucks within two blocks from the home. That will cause some housing to become much more desirable and limit the spread. I would think any of the above would show in a city like Austin first, DFW area second and Houston probably last. Anyways, I think it would be a multi decade trend and then there is some back wind from the Texas economy doing better than average too. I think any bet on the Texas economy in the long run may be a good one.

Corporate debt/ Pretax ratio would be a better measure since interest is paid from $. Since the tax rates are at a historic low, using post tax numbers does skew the ratio a bit. but overall, the point is valid.

Almost any recession is closely related or caused by a credit even. The 2001 recession was not just the aftermath of a dot Comrades move forward! Bubble, there were a lot of telecom and independent power producers going bankrupt (Global Crossing, Worldcom, Mirant, Enron, - El Paso and Williams almost went bankrupt) The GFC was centered around the financial system, but eventually the credit crunch hit the whole economy. I think it is reasonable to assume that the next recession will also be related or caused by a credit event.

The unit currently generates 900M Euro on EBIT, but there are probably some overhead costs on a generally corporate level that would need to be out back into the unit. A 20B Euro price would be fairly rich a 15B Euro price might be OK for a competitor with synergies. This business is like an annuity, I can see why a pension fund might like it.

Same here. Price action looks very weak. I think we will get mid fifty prices in a general stock market correction. I did notice some smaller insider sales (Breen etc) at the end of last year. Edit : also added a bit of LBTYK.

In the US, the customer protecting antitrust stopped working in the. 1980’s under Reagan. They haven’t done much since then. Telecom and Media is different. In Europe , the telecom companies were state run and TV was state sponsored (and generally free except a smallish “tax”). Private TV came on the scene in the 80’s, but they could not charge consumers for it, it was only advertising supported. Both changed over time but both telecom and TV pricing started at a way lower base pricing and it has been that way ever since. There are some disadvantages to this. My brother for example lives in a rural village (in german context) and he does not have access to reasonable broadband, even though he needs it for his job. He actually gets it via a microwave transmitter, which can be iffy and speeds are only slightly better than ADSL. The US has this issue too in rural communities, but at least there is funding mechanism to encourage better connectivity (connect America sponsernd by the FCC) but nothing like this in Germany and it doesn’t seem like anybody cares either. He would gladly pay the equivalent of $50 for broadband if he had the option. I second Notsowise toast to CHTR’s and CMCSA’s customers.

$50 after all fees and taxes and that being non-promotional pricing? Who's your provider? I am paying $80 for 20MB/s non-promotional with fees/taxes. And the cheapest 12 months promotional is $39.99 which goes up to undisclosed sum after 12 months AND that's before fees/taxes. (Edit: I see there is currently one $29.99 promo offer that was not there last time I looked. That might go to $50 non-promo before taxes, who knows.) My provider is Verizon FIOS for 100MB broadband only.. Price for the same service was exactly the same in Long Island with the same provider. I think it is a promotional rate for 1 year, but it is easily extended with a phone call.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise. While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run... All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials. For sure, with regard to the sentiment, but 2019 was yet another record year for auto sales(in $ figures). The problem is they are terrible allocators. E&P companies are probably better peers than the malls. They make tons of money in good years but give none of it back to shareholders because dumb career industry folks run the companies based on out dated and inefficient theories for "what you're supposed to do". Then during the bad years... shit gets ugly. As my bearishness on the overall market has grown, GM has started to bother me more. If this is how they perform in a record market, I probably dont want to be around for when things stop going perfectly. How would you run GM better? Large buybacks may not be the best course of action because the stock really didn’t move. In a way it would be wasted. GM will bleed probably bleed $10B+ In cash during a recession because they would need to spent on new models and because the industry is in transition on electrification and self driving cars. There isn’t an easy way out, the business is a value trap. If I had to buy one stock, it would be FCAU. They are winning market share in trucks and the merger with Peugeot will fix their ailing European business hopefully.

Don't forget pissing away money on Lyft, Maven, and probably Cruise. While Ive long liked Cruise, it is hard now not to view it through the tainted lens of Softbank being the main reason it's considered a home run... All the car companies except Tesla have been trading like junk for the last 12 month almost without exception. that includes Europe, and to a to a lesser degree Japan. They are like the c malls of the industrials.

I checked out SKY‘s broadband pricing and it’s 27 GBP ($35) for 60MB/s Speed. I pay $50 for 100MB/s (in two different locations the price was the same, so I think it’s a pretty good estimate for US pricing) so while the UK is a bit cheaper, it’s not terribly so. SKY I think is the low cost competitor - they are using their own network and the Last mile from BT (for wholesale prices set by the government). Sky can also bundle TV and now cell phone via MVNO. I think that’s Comcast play that thy want to provide broadband and TV in Europe and that why they bought SKY. Perhaps they will be a buyer for Liberty assets if regulators allow so. If we estimate SKY‘s priding $40 to account for the different speeds, I think it’s a reasonable pricing that ought to allow a decent profit for broadband providers in the UK.

I noticed the same thing. It shows how people are starting think about it, even though it obviously has no value because it isn't printed on green paper with pictures of good (i.e. dead) politicians on it. It’s gold for millennials. It’s also a solution if you need to launder money, live in Country with Capital controls and a crappy currency (which typically go hand in hand) and want to transfer you wealth. It might have its limitations, but if you need to move money under the nose from a government, than its the way to go.

This is all true to some extend, but as I mentioned before , most Germans don’t own stock and the unemployment rate is 3.2%, which is full employment and then some. The unrest in the populace, which will eventually eventually Merkels removal (imo) is related to I immigration policy etc and not to economic issues.

I posted a comment on this article today: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314926-atento-deserves-your-attention I think this week's selling is coming from RSU's issued 30 months ago that vested on Jan 2. Last year it was a similar story and the stock declined 14% in 5 days following the vesting of RSUs on a lot of volume and this year it's also down about 14% on significant volume in the 4 days since vesting. Last year ATTO bounced back 13% the following week. Not sure if we'll see a replay but it's a reasonable speculation. Thanks good comment. It does seem selling on no news and typically I don’t think that indiscriminate sellers are that well informed.

$100 in NYC or $50 elsewhere. I agree it’s an inevitable expense, like utilities. What really surprises me is the fact that people think they are being overcharged for high speed broadband and that it is expensive. I think this is just carryover from the days when cable was raping everyone, they are conditioned to believe that cable is always a rip-off. To me 60-80 bucks for 100-200 mbps, and all the utility that comes with it is a bargain. In my house you have at least 15-20 man hours of use on a weekday and much more than that on weekends or days off. Cable t.v was/is a rip-off (and it's mostly the content producers doing the the ripping off) but fixed broadband offers tremendous value imo. I agree it is a good value, but so is the Aspirin pill that saves me the headache forma day. It’s a user perceived value vs cost thing. I do agree with scorpioncapital that broadband / cable more profitable in the US than virtually anywhere else. I have great success with my investment in broadband in the US, but so far any investment elsewhere (US, Latin America , Asia) has been a failure so far. I still have great hope for Megacable, which has a decent LT track record so far.

$100 in NYC or $50 elsewhere. I agree it’s an inevitable expense, like utilities.

Bought some ATTO as a rebound play.

My largest issue with Schouw is that the fish food is a business with commodity like characteristics. If not for that, I think I would buy a position as well. Management clearly had a long term focus and appears to be fair to minority shareholders.

The US is a lot Europe in terms of economic diversity - in Europe you have Munich and Luxembourg on one side and Greece and Southern Italy on the other. In the US you have the Rich areas like the Bay Area and NYC and poor areas like Kentucky and Mississippi etc. You just have more cultural glue to hold the US together compared with Europe.

Tequila (CUERVO.MX) Artificial body parts and organs Space Technology Housing in Texas

If only they were. I cannot sell or buy ASFI anymore even though I just hold 100 shares worth $1000 .. Admittedly I had a larger position in the past but even then I wasn’t close to owning 1% which would be 65k shares - a position worth a few hundred k and three weeks of trading volume .. Margin rates can be negotiated. Just threaten to leave for lower margin rates at IB and see how your broker respond. They may not exactly match IB‘s rate but probably close enough. A bunch of CoBF people have previously tried to persuade me that IB is the best thing since the sliced bread. Now I'm gonna gloat and say "I told you so". 8) No, I'm gonna say: "Sorry you guys are having these issues". :'( The margin rates are too good to move away from. I only know how to buy and sell equities. I haven't even explored 99.9% of the tools being offered.

Seems positive on a first look. Lower speed capped to inflation, higher speed pricing unregulated, certainty for 5 years rather than 3 years.

There are either more idiots than shares or more shares than idiots. For now, it’s clear in which condition we are. Elon should really issue shares and take advantage of the reflexivity.