Spekulatius

^ Yes, UHAL’s Management certainly has a LT focus, but they are just not good operators. The cost issues are persistent and their operating results have peaked 5 years ago, despite the business growing substantially since. Self storage buildout is a huge gamble, as they are taking on substantial debt. I calculated that they need another ~1.5B-2B to build out the properties they have acquired so far and they are still acquiring more. This yer there is going to be a bit more than $800M in self storage Capex, which means that the binge is going to last another 24 month at least. I could look past many things, but the huge and growing debt load concerns me. If they can’t make money in this economy, what will happen if we hit a soft patch or even a downturn?

The Disclosure Statement has most of the useful info. Starting on p. 318 you get financial projections and capital structure. The company has about $2.7b in debt and $1.4b in cash. 70mn shares outstanding and 7mn in warrants. https://cases.primeclerk.com/weatherford/Home-DocketInfo?DocAttribute=4658&DocAttrName=CLASS10SOLICITATIONMATERIALS Thanks. looks like the EV is about $4.06B (70M shares x $28 + $2.5B debt - $400M Cash). Note that the projections are from July 2919 and pretty stale. It’s does sound reasonably cheap for $900M in EBITDA also I have noticed in other bankruptcy dockets that these projects tend to be a bit on the optimistic side and additional costs become due once the company becomes public again.

UHAL Q4 2019 results are a disaster. Both rental and self storage results are weak. I calculate that their self storage revenue/ sqft is down ~2.5% YoY (~17% growth in sqft, 14% growth in revenues). They added ~$150M in debt last quarter alone it seems and cash is a bit down too. They simply can’t fill all that self storage space they are building and overall markets are soft, based on what other operators are communicating and still mire supply hitting the market.

I sold part of my GOOG position. I switched the remainder from GOOG into GOOGL and gained ~4$/ share and voting rights. I noticed that the voting shares trade at a discount to non voting shares despite having pretty much the same liquidity. Strange.

I wonder if Mr market is waking up to the fact that this is a company with challenging looking financials trading for $140 and earning $5.3 this year and. It much more next year. I guess it’s cheap relative to Netflix, but it’s quite expensive relative to its own history. Disney’s cable channels are struggling mightily and the ARPU of their streaming accounts is way lower than for cable. I do get the narrative about the flywheel of Disney brands, entertainment properties and DTC, but it’s going to take years until they can lap the effects of cable cutting.

I am more interested in the stock than the warrants. Where can I find the current financials? I guess the filing is here, but it doesn’t contain current financials. It’s just details how everyone else, but shareholders get paid : https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1603923/000110465919073841/0001104659-19-073841-index.htm

It was merely for entertainment lol by no means was I saying that Tesla is 100% correlated. If the chart has any value at all it would be found in the investor sentiment completely absent of fundamentals. A Tilray chart would probably fit the bill well too. I guess it was for entertainment only, but with everything that pertains to Tesla, one can never tell. ;D

There is no reason, why the stock of the South Sea Company and Tesla should follow a similar trajectory. The correlation we are seeing is a result of cherry-picking one stock out of many stock and timeframes. i most cases the correlation falls apart once it is posted.

With a party that exuberant, I wonder what the hangover feels like.?

When organic growth isn’t present, nothing else matters generally. It is the one factor that rules them all, imo.

I bought some PSX today. My rationale is that this is really a diversified midstream, basics chemical , marketing and refining company that is trading for a refining business multiple. The glut in NG and crude supplies is a headwind rather than a tailwind for them. Strong FCF supports a rising dividend and share buybacks. since the spinoff from COP, they reduced sharecount from ~630M shares to 445M shares now, so it is a cannibal as well. They had a weak quarter and missed earnings due to more refinery turnarounds and weaker chemical business earnings. I think next quarter will be stronger at least for refining earnings.

775k in Corporate expenses and ~1.4M in equity. Ouch!

PSX and KAR

I surrender.?

I lived in Long Island a few years ago, so I am familiar with the Shoprite and Fairway stores. The Shoprite stores where I lived where pretty drab and we rarely wen there, going to a close by Costco, a family Supermarkt and Trade Joe instead. I felt those Shoprite will become competitive roadkill sooner or later. What Gregmal describes as try Village owned Shoprite sounds much more upscale and viable. I also knew one of the suburban Fairway store and it was a pretty nice store. We liked going there, even if it was a little out of the way. I don’t know if this store is problem child for this chain , but in any case it is not amongst the stores that Village supermarkets is going to acquire. it seems that Village is going after Fairways crown je well stores and I would think that this will end up being to their benefit.

Why don't you like MLPs? Is it just the tax implications or are there other issues? I prefer c-Corp over MLP mostly due to ease of dealing with them (no K-1). Energy and even midstream is cyclical and volatile, so one can benefit from buying and selling at the “right time “. MLP are a pain in the butt when dealing with partial sales, distribution recapture etc. Also, 60% + of my assets are in tax deferred accounts, which are no-go for MLP (UBTI concern). I would consider an MLP (and indeed own one) for a long term holding only, preferably something I never intend to sell. I think only EPD is really of high enough quality and even there are rumbling about converting to a c-Corp.

Nice plug from Vitaliy Katsenelson for Bollore. It’s exactly what lead me to this and eventually OTEL.PA https://contrarianedge.com/bollore-streaming-music-cash-flows/

I own some WMB, which I consider undervalued, despite the noise around bankruptcies impacting their G&P operations. I like EPD, but I don’t like dealing with MLP, unless I absolutely have to and I am willing to make a larger and long term commitment. For me PSX is the most interesting as their midstream and chemical business becomes a larger part of their cash stream, yet it still is largely valued as a refiner. it has the Buffet seal of approval (despite the fact that he exited) and their share buybacks truly identify it as a cannibal. In the CC, they mentioned that thy have ~900M annual EBITDA thwt could be dropped down into their MLP. Do this at 10x EBITDA while the stock trades at 7x and we are talking about serious value accreditation.

They are in the 50s. I am very sorry to hear that what seems only mildly uncomforting from our perspective so far, is taking lives.

Cap rates have moved up since 3 years ago. I think That alone accounts for most differences. if you like to see private market values on real estate, sign up on with some of the reale estate platforms to see the deal flow and the current valuation. I have just gotten a deal presented from Real estate mogul for a B grocery anchored open air shopping center with some hair for a close to 10% unleavened cap rates. I don’t think these sort of deals existed at the same cap rates years ago. And perhaps they may not be a deal at all, if the shopping mall deteriorates. Anyway, I kind of like SRG in a sense that it is basically a developer and can develop properties that may be valuable in the future, rather than those that worked well in the last. But I would guess for sure that the Exit valuation after a project is completed is closer to 7-8% rather than the ~6% that were thrown around in the past, with obvious impact on SRG NAV. I am not sure if above numbers are correct in absolute terms, but I think they are correct directionally

I am a big fan of Focused compounding podcast, so I think it is an advantage in terms of being a great marketing tool. The letter strikes me as odd (Sorry Andrew and Geoff as I know they follow the forums here 8)). It is very humble and al, they but what is the purpose of this? Of course, I would expect being able to speak to management if I owned 17% of something. The bigger question is what are they seeing in this stock. iit May be somewhat cheap-ish,but I don’t see that much of a margin of safety there. PRKA just acquired a new business in the boonies in Texas (100 miles from Austin) for a significant part of their market cap adding a new park to their existing 2. The last acquisition in Missouri in 2008 didn’t work out. Also, they paid 20c for their open market purchases and 26c (30% more) for the bulk of their position in a privately negotiated transaction., so they paid a significant premium. How can they exit this? How permanent is their capital? If I were LP, I would be very concerned, as this stake ought to be a substantial part of their fund. Is this Yolo microcap investing?

^ Based on what are you guys buying these stocks and how are you finding those? Look for low price to book and excess cash? I scroll around the the Japan exchange website from time to time and find plenty of cheap looking stocks, but most of them are cigar buts in a sense that nothing much happens and the share price bounces around allow decent exits from time to time. There seem to be some transformational stories, but I haven’t been able to latch onto those before the crowds do? I only own a bit of 4624.T (Isamu Paint) now and poking around some others like 3001.T (real estate Transformation, there is a VIC writeup if I remember correctly) etc. The money is really in transformational stories and I feel like I am at an information disadvantage here.

Interesting report, pulled from the Q4 2019 reddit hedge fund letter vintage: https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/euh/eulerhermes_com/erd/publications/pdf/20200122theviewretail.pdf

Probably down at move the needle. For news to move the stock, low float is paramount. I thought Berry’s earnings were OK, but it seems that low resin prices aren't their friend. All the chemicals are hurting and polyethylene prices are in the tank. I don’t think it’s a sell supply glut either - considering that chemical are canaries in the coal mine I don’t think the economy will do that great, at least not the manufacturing sector.

Bought some odds and ends and a starter in FRA.DE (Frankfurt Airport)