Spekulatius

Yes, I am too. Teflon market, nothing sticks. It wouldn’t touch the stock with a ten foot pole.

The interesting thing I learned here is that hospitals would not use the new antibiotics as a first line, because genetics are cheaper and they want to save them up as second line defense, in case the first line antibiotics don’t work because of resistance. That’s a tough nut to crack and needs to be rightened with incentives for the developer, otherwise it’s hard to make these drugs commercially viable. My wife works in dialysis in ER’s and she often also gives antibiotics as IV’s and hospital often go for the generic stuff. She has seen only 3 different ones applied so far. She also thinks there is a whole lot of inertia with doctors or even hospitals.

1) I think multiples in Europe have compressed over the years. They were quite richly valued in early 2000’s and valuations have come down. 2) Overall, quality is lower, as measured by ROIC. Demographics are worse, but with export oriented economies, that’s not necessarily a restriction to growth. 3) There is less of a shareholder culture in Europe. most Europeans hold no or very little stock and there is no 401k equivalent. Large buyers like this tend to create a steady bid and that. is missing in Europe. 4) I recently looked at some very LT performance numbers and based on memory, since the DAX was created in 1990, the index is up by about 7.8x, which is quite similar to SP500, so over the longer term, at least the German index has performed equivalent. That said, it outperformed in the 1990 and underperformed since the GFC. It’s similar to emerging markets and I think the correlation is no coincidence. 5) The financial sector is permanently impaired . Banks, but also life insurers etc. are impaired by a combination of negative interest rates and competition.

^ Another thing for my bucket list. Probably worthwhile to visit before it gets on the radar door for international tourism.

I find it interesting that so many people use leverage 10 years into a bull market. I was aggressive up to 2012, then again in late 2015 and at the end of 2018 but now I try to keep a healthy amount of cash to be able to pounce whenever I see some great setups.

So with WPC, ORI and MCY, you are bullish on property insurers? ORI looks interesting based on valuation metrics. I have owned MCY before ( a long time ago) when it traded at book value. I used to have my car and property insurance with them when I lived in CA.

That’s exactly what the crux of wisdom is. Get an umbrella policy is ~ to your assets and you should be ok. Actually most are Ok with $2M umbrella policy because attorneys won’t know your assets in most cases and go for the easy settlement first.

The notion that a PhD teaches nothing is laughable. There are many, many things that you can only learn in a PhD (Machine learning, for example). Lot’s of people will sell you on the idea that you can learn these things without a PhD (again, Machine Learning), but that’s a nonsense. Some things take years of study and practice in an environment with constant feedback from skilled practitioners, and that’s a PhD program. I tend to agree that you don’t learn much useful in an MBA program, but the course content isn’t really the point of them. I have a PhD and the only thing a PhD teaches you is how to teach yourself. That’s actually what my Doctor father (that’s what it’s called in Germany) told me and it had been true. It was worth it for me, but only because I didn’t have to pay for it - in fact I was being paid during the time was was working on my PhD ( albeit little). Unless you get into academia, it’s probably not a good payoff.

This is probably #1 for me as well. His speech at the University of Florida in 1998 was particularly instructive: For this little nugget of wisdom, I am eternally grateful. His speech at the University of Florida in 1998 was one of his best. Just this timeless excerpt: https://www.tilsonfunds.com/BuffettUofFloridaspeech.pdf I am on my second pint of microbrew now and for a totally unrelated reason also bumping long forgotten threads.

LOL My atheist grandma was supposedly on her deathbed and the catholic run hospital sent a priest to for the last rites. My grandma became furious and noticed that this “ alter Bock” wore a wig amongst all thing. She chased him out swearing in her Berlin accent from her bed calling him out. She lived on for another decade. she is my family hero. Mine are: 1) Stay healthy enough to enjoy good wine and beer 2) Survive another year 3) go to 1) again and repeat as long as possible

Excellent article on Boeing’s recent history and how it came about the 737 max. I recall the merger with MDD. I even had some shares back then. It’s also interesting how well Airbus has done and it seems that they will become the market share leader now. https://qz.com/1776080/how-the-mcdonnell-douglas-boeing-merger-led-to-the-737-max-crisis/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

By mitigated, I meant: - no foreseeable route schedules or flight volumes will be impacted as they had a mitigation plan in place. Indeed they expect an increase in bookings and revenue this quarter. - the impact of the 737 MAX not making schedule is a 4-6% operating cost increase. They have negotiated one settlement with boeing on financial compensation to offset this, and have future talks teed up. Issues like this are temporary if you are a buy-and-hold 3-5-10 year kind of investor. What are the consequences, if this bird never flies again? LUV would need to change their plain procurement and costs would probably be permanently higher be sure now they would need to fly multiple aircraft rather than one. Also, in the case, that the 737 max does not fly again, I expect Boeing to restructure and possibly declare bankruptcy. The main reason ai think so is because they loaded up their supply chain with unsold planes and are probably liable for inventory not just in their possession, but also for their suppliers. This scenario isn’t that likely, but I think it is way higher then the probabilities assigned by Mr Market currently. The fact is that Boeing designed an aerodynamically unsound plane with that is stabilized by shoddy software. They can fix the software, but does it make the plane sound? What would happen if a other bird falls from the sky after the FAA approves it to fly again? LUV uses only Boeing planes, so they are tied to the mast, so to speak.

Hilti used to be a public company and traded on the Swiss exchange. Trumpf is a Family owned business with a very long term focus. They developed their own photonics Technology for their lasers (the modules are build in NJ/US) in order to control the whole value chain. I don’t think they are likely to sell out. Well, BRK could buy IPGP. ;) Yes, that would be a great company for Buffet to look at. I am guessing there are folks within Berkshire’s operations that understand IPGP’s market position and moat. I have no idea if IPGP’s board would entertain a sale - the company is still founder driven to some extent.

Yeah, the market seems very much like 1999 now. I think there is a generation of investors at work that is either on autopilot using ETF’s and index funds or driven by narratives rather than fundamental valuations. Great business/CEO, great product, high customer retention, but outlandish valuations and operating losses shock no one. I also note that more and more fund managers and CEO note how important it is to “tell a story”. While good communication always has value, I would like the numbers do most of the talking. I do agree it could go on for a while, but generally speaking it’s time to worry when nobody else does.

I'd bet they gonna be acquired. But quite possibly way below current price. And possibly out of BK. So no investment angle. I bet you are right. If someone wants to contest ILMN’s market position, acquiring PACB on the cheap would be one way to do so.

Now I remember that Chuck Akre was in the “Invest like the best podcast”, where he explained his three legged stool approach and how they came about AMT. As I recall, they had a position before the stock declined substantially, which they used to average up in. http://investorfieldguide.com/akre/

5:0 (FTC vote against the merger ) is a pretty clear score in a soccer match and this is no different here. I don’t think this merger is going to happen. PACB’s board need’s plan B and that means a merger with another partner, even if they pay less. Its official. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17738247-illumina-and-pacific-biosciences-announce-termination-of-merger-agreement Interesting how they basically get to an agreement with the UK regulators, and then our own regulators bizarrely, after presenting zero previously, kill the thing.... oh well. I got in at 6, got out at 5.40, had the timeline spot on, even the resolution in the UK, and then got burned by the regulators I completely underestimated. Cant win em all. In this market it'll probably be at $7 in a few days anyway... I sold out lower than the $5.05 the stock was trading at AH after the merger was cancelled. I guess they have a bit of cash to burn though as a consideration from ILMN before things get problematic. This business isn’t really worth anything as a going concern, imo.

Hilti used to be a public company and traded on the Swiss exchange. Trumpf is a Family owned business with a very long term focus. They developed their own photonics Technology for their lasers (the modules are build in NJ/US) in order to control the whole value chain. I don’t think they are likely to sell out.

How is the 737 max issue mitigated? LUV is basically a single aircraft airline and their low cost position is partly build around this. If this bird never flies or is impaired in terms of resale, what is going to be their upgrade path?

I have various accounts and my overall estimate is close to 30% return. Stock picking was so so, but some trading around (DD, CTVA, NOW, AMZN etc) really helped. The setup this year was pretty good with the decline in fall 2018, similar to 2015. If I could settle this year for an 8% return, I would take it.

This is an interesting quote from this article. I can’t say I follow this advice. My buys and sells are mostly based on valuation with perhaps a short term focus on momentum (letting winners run). I also tend to sell if a stock goes up substantially without change in corroborating news or fundamentals. Sometimes, it pays, and sometimes I leave money on the table, especially in bull markets. When markets seesaw and volatility is high, the buying /selling works very well. Also, if not selling based on fundamentals, what other guidelines is one using? Every single time I have sold a great business for valuation reasons I've regretted it. I think the alternative option is to hold great businesses as long as they're great. I have seen both. To some extend, I was playing the 1999/2000 tech bubble and I really didn’t regret anything I sold back then. Many would have lost 90% back. Even with great companies like MSFT, which did. put out good numbers all along, the multiple regression caused substantial losses that took a decade to make up. Current examples are a bunch or SAAS companies or even something like DIS. While I agree thwt DIS has great assets, I do wonder if the stock surge of ~30% has overextended the stock. The streaming competition is going to be tough and DIS estimates thwt it will take a few years to just break even. Then the cash machine ESPN is becoming a wasting assets. So what we have is a stock that may not have any earnings growth for a couple of years, yet trades at ~27x earnings ($5.2 earnings estimate for 2020), which is far above it’s historical range. I‘d rather own FOX or CMCSA Right now at far lower valuations and that’s indeed where I swapped proceeds from DIS sales into. This may turnout out to be a mistake, but I think it is a value approach and protects downside. I think a lot folks that talk about great business here have not really experience when the multiple compression bear raises its ugly head.

I have two bets that are a good risk reward: 1) DD, stock hasn’t budged despite value unlock of the nutraceutical business 2) MEGACPO.MX - relatively cheap mexican cable co. Low debt and owner operated. I think this will do well, if the Mexican economy does better.

This is an interesting quote from this article. I can’t say I follow this advice. My buys and sells are mostly based on valuation with perhaps a short term focus on momentum (letting winners run). I also tend to sell if a stock goes up substantially without change in corroborating news or fundamentals. Sometimes, it pays, and sometimes I leave money on the table, especially in bull markets. When markets seesaw and volatility is high, the buying /selling works very well. Also, if not selling based on fundamentals, what other guidelines is one using?

"They are endless money pits" - Scotty Kilmer If you want reliable, no-brainer cars and you like the design, I would go with Toyota. Most of the Hondas are great as well. Recent Mazdas are great value for money, reliable almost as the Toyotas, have very nice design(I love them). Also consider Hyundai/Kia - very good value/features etc.. If you are willing to spend more or want more premuim brands, check out Lexus/Acura/Genesis. Especially Genesis can be a great value second hand. Avoid anything German, specially premium German(Mercedes/BMW/Audi), unless you really like them. Also better avoid anything with CVT or Dual Clutch transmissions. They tend to have many problmes and are expensive to repair. Do you have any specific models in mind? What is your budget? Willing to buy second hand? Size/shape(passenger/SUV?). I wouldn’t trust Scotty Miller. I think he may be paid by Toyota. Toyota is very good at marketing it’s crappy cars through self media. I remember one day Scotty said his son bought a new Toyota Tacoma and expected to keep it for decades. If you check Consumer reports or other car review channels, you can see that the new Tacoma is one of the least reliable pickup truck on market. Its highest end TRD PRO off road trim is also a complete joke. Search for a YouTube video for Honda Ridgeline base model driving into Death Valley Race Track, with a Tacoma TRD as the support vehicle and see what happened. The Tacoma’s all four suspension exploded after 6 miles while the Ridgeline base model made it back in the end with tiny leaks in one suspension. Scotty Kilmer has a video out there “Why not to buy a new Toyota Camry”, so if he is paid by Toyota, he doing a bad job promoting the brand. Anyways, I have never heard of him before and I am surprised anyone would take your tube opinions as a gospel?

You get what you pay for here :o. Linealdin’s posts never looked like pump and dump to me. I don’t think he owes this board anything. Perhaps he is just taking a break, has changed his opinion on this stock or just moved on for other reasons.