Spekulatius

I am thinking that lower density areas that do well in this epidemic might do well in terms of housing because older folks (who tend to have money), might want to move there. Buy a cabin in the woods in upstate NY or Vermont or maybe around Flagstaff in AZ. Good hospital nearby a strong plus. People might look at COVID-19 maps rather than school districts (which don’t matter since kids are out of the house). I know similar things have occurred after the two wildfire season in CA. Thoughts?

My wife works as an RN on dialysis exclusively and she now sees a lot of patients with renal issues that need dialysis. Could it be that COVID-19 causes renal failure?

Some of the restaurants are doing a good staying. One Korean place close to my work sends out email promotions, gave out toilet paper rolls with each pickup/delivery and also started to offer meal kids (bake/fry at home ) for families. I am not really that keen on pickup (because of pot. Exposure) and even restaurant food delivered may carry some risk (disinfect containers etc.), so we don’t do that any more and delivery options are limited here in the boonies anyways. We we are cooking 100% at home and spending $400 on Costco food runs. I know others who do the same. We even have after hours “cheers” party via FaceTime where we salute each other with out drinks. I can do this for a couple of month, but long term it surely sucks.

Cheers: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemicallef/2020/04/04/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-upending-the-alcoholic-beverage-industry/#3a5bcf0b4b0b

If it’s a public safety issue, the the state can absolutely shut this business down. This deli owner affects the live of other people even those that don’t frequent his deli. He is unlikely to compensate for any damages or halte issue he may cause.

Yes, I watched this a while ago. I am a bit of a WW1 nerd. Got fascinated with it when my dad showed me a pic of my great grandfather in front of a huge artillery piece in a desolate landscape somewhere in France. If you want a literal description of a soldiers view of WW1, read Ernst Jüngers book “ In Stahlgewittern” (Storm of steel), which you can download as freeware if look around.

Wasn't that the Great Recession? Tru. I mixed up Great Depression and Great Recession. I do think that the coming recession could be worse than the Great Recession.

Always beware of self-congratulatory praise but policy action in the right direction can make a significant difference: https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/portugal-quicker-to-take-action-than-italy-spain-and-uk/53552 However, urban population rate is somewhat higher in Spain and it appears (looking at evolving data, SARS and others) that the density of international traffic (travel and trade) matters. The % of direct trade with China is higher in Spain. What many people in this forum and in other places forget is that for a complex system (social, economic and biology) there will always be many contributing factors that are in many cases closely intertwined. The above example and COVID-19 related deaths due to other pre-existing conditions are good examples. That should not make us interpret that some of these measures being prescribed by experts (such as imposing shelter-in-place early) are not effective. In-fact, by imposing shelter-in-place early on in the pandemic affects other variables described above in a positive way. It becomes less likely that international travelers will go to a region where there is such shelter imposed, trade to that regions will go down as well, etc. So the argument of what is the *real* cause and effect is not always helpful, there will be many. The goal should be to come up with as short a list of policy prescriptions as possible that will address most of these factors. I agree. I do think that Portugal and Spain are quite similar, as is Italy and Spain in terms of socioeconomic factors somit is reasonable to look at those comps.It makes more sense than to compare the USA to Europe for example of even more so Montana with Florida. I do think that there are a lot of interesting experiments going on soon where different counties try different things. For example it will be interesting if Sweden can keep their economy partially open or hat happens when Denmark opens their kindergarten after eastern. However, just because Sweden managed to avoid a shutdowns doesn’t mean that a shutdown in Italy or XYZ was a bad idea just point out one example. Also, just comparing a Shelter I place here in MA doesn’t really compare with a similar thing in Europe. Even if it’s called the same, the details can be quite different. For example, Austria has been way more stringent then Germany and certainly the US (at least compared to where I live). So that will explain some differences in outcome as well.

In my circle a lot of people have pulled back spending and longer term plans to do so. The reason is two fold - right now it is really hard to actually spent money except for necessities and maybe work from home stuff and utilities and the second one is that the economic numbers are so bad (unemployment etc) that it is only prudent to reduce spending, since it is impossible to know if one still has a job in two month and getting a new one is going to be quite a challenge. I do not think we will have a Great Recession though, but we probably have a worse recession than 2008/2009 with the duration being the question.

I noticed already a restaurant that we used for takeout being shuttered.. Website is gone too, I think it’s done for good. I agree with Jurgis that the social distancing is starting to become a habitual reflex. It will probably take some time to get rid of it too.

It's essential to question the decisions taken during this outbreak but some of the variables are a result of historical path-dependency or previous decisions that have built on over time. With the next item on the headlines, it's possible that the driven off character will come back galloping. When comparing UK and Ireland, much is in common including genetics but there were critical different variables: -median age, higher in UK -% of older individuals, much higher in UK -degree of urbanization, higher in UK In my (our) country, there are significant regional differences and tough questions need to be asked but, in my province, the % of older people living in chronic-care institutions is very different (much higher) from the rest of the country. This trend is a result of decisions taken over many years. Crises should not be wasted as they often are, to various degrees. The more striking comparison is Portugal vs Spain where Portugal looks way better right now, despite a similar socioeconomic profile and Spain having a better health care system.

Watched this one at home, no theatre's for the time being. Somehow only cost me $0.99. It’s not really a war film in a sense, seems more like a crossover of a road movie and the Odyssee in a WW1 setting. Great settings but also a lot of stuff that doesn’t make logical sense. It’s a masterpiece with some faults. Definitely worthwhile watching.

Yeah, I was looking at this model as well. Vintage look is cool. Helps with social distancing too.

My rule of thumb is that I stop looking at equity when I can get hold of bonds of the same name at <50c on the dollar. At 30c on the dollar, the bonds have become basically equity and the stock has become a far out of the money call option. I heard that during BK, even if you are a (minority) bond holder, you can still be robbed by the big holders by not allowing you participate. Have that happened to you before? No, I never went down with the ship buying bonds. I did buy junky bonds before, but I typically play just below investment grade (BB/BB+). This one ( AMC bonds ) would be too iffy for me.

My rule of thumb is that I stop looking at equity when I can get hold of bonds of the same name at <50c on the dollar. At 30c on the dollar, the bonds have become basically equity and the stock has become a far out of the money call option.

Yeah, I agree with Viking. They should really get an army of contact tracers and testing facilities installed as quickly as possible. Any outbreak will just totally undermine the economy if we start up and get large scale outbreaks again. Outbreaks will happen, so it is important get people confident that can be squashed quickly. Sounds like each state will have to figure out on their own how to do it, unless Trump provides a credible framework. Just uttering 10x in each WH briefing “ we have to open the economy “ is not going to do so. I actually agree we need to open it come May, but it is critical that it is done right.

Big fan of Belgian beers - Chimay and Leffers a value option. Some local breweries make awesome variants of the belgian originals. I miss going to the craft beer places All of our beers are sours ... but sadly it either takes decades to mutate the yeast to Belgian levels; or you have to referment multiple times, over 20+ months, at volume losses of 50%+ The yeast spores are also highly resistant to deep cleaning, so sour's production is typically an either/or thing. 2 years from now, a number of craft brewers will have some extremely good sours available, but in very limited supply. Hard to find a master brewer today, who isn't putting a stash away somewhere. Then there are the gretzky brewers who can make pomegranate .... while the rest of us mere mortals are stuck with raspberry, peach, and blackberry! SD I am not a big fan of the source, but they gained quite some following and some breweries specialize on them . They are very hard to get right, as I understand it. I do like the Belgian Whitbeer (which is a yeasty summer beer every one every in a while .Some microbreweries do homedeliver as the state relaxed the laws around this, allowing these guys to stay in business better I hope most of them survive as checking them out is something I look forward to whentjisasll goes back to the new normal.

One of my favorite wineries Scherrer Winery sent out an email last Saturday saying many of their wholesale accounts couldn't meet their commitments (for obvious reasons). Solution - he offered the wine to his mailing list for half price and free shipping. He was swamped with orders and quickly sold out of several wines, though there is still some left. https://scherrerwinery.com/ What a creative and quick response by Fred. This is ready to drink wine of older vintages, the stuff that would go on restaurant wine lists now. I can't wait to crack a bottle of the 2013 Russian River Valley Pinot. Got to try these guys one day. I drove past this winery a few times when I lived in the area but never tried their product. I do like the Russian River wines, it’s a good area for Pinot Noirs I think. I just ordered some from Kenwood Vineyards ( I know it’s corporate now, but i lived closed to their vineyard and have been drinking it now for 20 years so it’s friend with my liver now. https://kenwoodvineyards.com/shop/six-ridges-spring-sale (Doesn’t even need membership) I am also member with Buttonwood Grove. Visited the vineyard when we went a trip to the finger lakes and started to like their whites: https://www.buttonwoodgrove.com/ End of shameless plugs.

Muscleman mentioned in this thread that his relative died from what seemed like a relapse ore reinfection, but it is hard to know. I think there are 3 distinct strains of COVI around it is possible they immunity to one strain does not guarantee immunity to the other. However, my understanding is that Coronaviruses don’t enough to overcome immunity. It’s all speculation Fauci was asked the same thing on Thursday if I remember correctly and he gave an evasive answer because there is no way of knowing.

Rest of China had a lockdown too that was more stringent than in Europe or the US. Population is wearing masks and companies go to great length to avoid infection at the work place (I mentioned before that they shut down air circulation systems in factories /offices and vent with fresh air. They possibly are very good at contact tracing too (Big brother state). I also think that the Chinese government is lying about cases to some extend. Now if it were a full fledged epidemics, lying doesn’t work, but a few dozen unreported cases or even death here and there to avoid public unrest seem to be plausible, If not likely... Interesting. So did the rest of China do physical distancing / lockdown like what we are doing in Canada/USA/Europe? I know Wuhan was shut and just opened a few days ago. It seems pretty amazing China managed to keep the rest of the country operating. I think so different parts of China did different things. Some had strict curfews in place. The info I got was from Folks here who work for an US high tech company with operations in China. They try to actively learn from their chinese colleagues how to deal with this specifically at the work place.

Rest of China had a lockdown too that was more stringent than in Europe or the US. Population is wearing masks and companies go to great length to avoid infection at the work place (I mentioned before that they shut down air circulation systems in factories /offices and vent with fresh air. They possibly are very good at contact tracing too (Big brother state). I also think that the Chinese government is lying about cases to some extend. Now if it were a full fledged epidemics, lying doesn’t work, but a few dozen unreported cases orevendeath here and there to avoid public unrest seem to be plausible, If not likely...

I think it is very unlikely that the current government messes with anything related to housing right now that risk are wheels may be coming off. Now if they are forced to due to a very clear court decision they ist change think I can’t think that setting FNM/FRE free from a politicians point of view. Focus is elsewhere for month if not years and there is serious risk to the housing market. No position.

Forest Trump talking medicine: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1248698754556923904?s=21 I am sorry if it sounds reasonable to you.

Yeah, it's clear that they were giving out inaccurate information. The real question I wonder about is whether they were doing that because they're corrupt or because they knew that if they gave out accurate information, China would screw them, potentially making their response even worse. Did they choose the lesser of two evils, or are they just bad? Across all of this, the one definitive lesson to be learned is that the CCP is a big problem and big western nations ought to distance themselves from China, even if it costs money. It's a shame that America isn't in position right now to step up and take international leadership in doing that. The simplest explanation is the best imo and they are just bad and kept regurgating what China told them. WHOhas good People and probably incompetent ones. Let’s also remember Dr Carlo Urbani, a WHO Doctor who probably prevented a SARS epidemic in 2003 and paid for it with his life. Also, let’s face it a nation like the USA doesn’t rely on the WHO. The US has its own boots on the ground and knew about the virus early January if not earlier. They sure have people and informants their as well Aswath ing social media

Big fan of Belgian beers - Chimay and Leffers a value option. Some local breweries make awesome variants of the belgian originals. I miss going to the craft beer places