Spekulatius

^ I think it is pretty likely that we get a crisis in Euro land when this is over, with Italy and to a lesser degree Spain as a hotspot.Not sure hat is going to happen, but it’s probably not too pleasant. It is also unclear how the Chinese US relationship develops. Probably not for the better especially if it turn out that China as the origin of this disaster comes out as a relative winner. Countries will internalize more things hey seem important for security. not sure what rabbit holes this leads u down to, but it doesn’t sound bullish for global trade. As for the COVID-19 virus, once we develop a vaccine, the best thing we can do is to give it to anyone on earth, even enemies like North Korea and Iran. The reason is simple - the chances of it mutating into something that makes the vaccine inefficient is much higher if it survives in considerable quantity inhuman hosts. Less throws of a dice - less chances of a dangerous mutation. Right now the threat or MERS, SARS and COVID-19 seems to come from bats that serve as a reservoir as it doesn’t make them sick and then it jumps species twice where the second jump is from some animal household animal to humans. This takes some chain of mutations, but appears to occur every couple of years, which is bad enough as is. If the virus keeps a human reservoir however, I think those mutations will probably happen every year or so with the consequence that we get super flu waves due to only partly effective vaccines that are multiples deadlier than the flu we get every year. Maybe to much speculation on my part, it would be great to hear Bill Gates opinion on this topic as he clearly thinks about these issues.

Also, Peter Attia thread on the hypoxia/hemoglobinopathy theory: The hemoglobin binding notion is very unlikely IMO. For one, Covid does not infect RBCs (where hemoglobin is). And for another, there is a very easy explanation for hypoxia in these patients: ARDS. Occam's razor is useful here. And let's not forget that the vast majority of "in silico" computational binding studies are very low utility and certainly not predictive, even weaker than in vitro studies (which is itself inferior to in vivo and then in situ). Bill Gates in the video posted by Liberty doesn’t believe it works either. He mentioned it looks good in the lab, so they surely have looked into this. Personally, if I get COVID-19, I would ask my doc to give it a try. It’s not like there are many other options and I don’t have or existing conditions the would make it dangerous for me to use. More upside than downside I think.

Austria did a random study using PCR tests ( somit would capture those that overcome the infection already) and they have a 0.33% infection rate estimate for their population: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html

My thinking is that this will be pushed until it doesn’t work and then we get the Wile E Coyote moment. The bailouts in 2009 didn’t really work out too badly for the taxpayer, so it’s not surprise that actors now try to do more and go way deep into the mud (junk bonds). The next step is probably buying equity ETF. That would be the ultimate Fed backstop.

Well, I don’t really understand MMT they well but I do know that managing the Fed, the banking and inflation is basically a confidence game. Coming from Germany, I have read about the inflationary periods after WW1 and We2 and more over the stories about the inflation after WW1 (my grandparents were small kids then but they remember People running to stores after they got their paycheck because was worth less the next day etc) They saw money becoming worthless twice. That’s why they would rather take a recession than endure inflation. I think it transferred other to the next generation pretty well too. My thinking is that when we discover the limits of all this, meaning that people lose the confidence in the currency, it will be all over and require a hard and painful reset. Not something I look forward too but I think I will see this day coming as each intervention seem to be multiples larger arger than the last one with not all that much of a long term effect.

Welcome to the new "free market" economic model: where bankruptcies are a thing of the past! They would be stupid not to to ask for it in the current environment. Has anyone asking for a bailout been rejected?

you may already have If only I could've gotten a test at any point, we'd know. Someday government will actually address the problem that's leading to the economic problems. Until then, regardless of orders from governors, folks aren't going to spend money. That's the crux of all the "open the economy talk". There are 8 states with no stay at home orders right now. Spending still fell off a cliff in South Dakota just like everywhere else. SD small businesses are even getting larger bailouts than middle class workers in NYC, despite 'not being affected'. I don't even understand what epidemiologists you guys are blaming for the stay at home orders. Not one of them has any actual authority. It's this weird boogeyman. Aren't you supposed to be upset at Trump/governors? As long as the virus is around, you can open up all you want ,but not many people will go, except those they watch Fox News maybe. People will go to work, perhaps wearing masks and with precautions (which is what Imam doing right now) and than GTFH (Get the fuck home). Right now, the government should really get everything moving to get a humongous Testing capability installed everywhere. - in every drug store or larger work place, schools etc. That is the only way avoid flying blind and getting data (people with symptoms 1-2weeks after the fact and after they infected a bunch of others. Until this is in place the social distancing will be with us and every activity or business that involves larger groups can’t really operate without severe limitation or not all.

This is true. However, the initial commentary seemed more political than anything else, and while we would all like to think tha tthe general public is thoughtful and discerning it's just not reality. I think that the last election is more than enough to prove that point. Amongst my friend group (mid 30s) this is starting to bubble up as a topic whenever conversation turns to deficits and medicare, etc. Young people are just future old people. The boomers were the free spirit revolutionaries in their times with the summer of love and the anti-war movement and all the drugs and rock and roll experimentation with the long hair and bell bottoms and all that. Now they're decried as the old ossified establishment. The wheels keep turning. People are people ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The boomers had more fun than the Millennials will ever have. If the Millennials want to change the world, they need to stop voting for grandpas to begin with.

Regarding microdroplets transmission in enclosed environments, the Chinese turned off all air circulation systems during the quarantine in buildings. Likely due to experiences with SARS.

Some conflicting data - France and Spain are not doing well. Spain is actually worse than Italy right now. Spain and France both habe BCG vaccination.Also, Portugal, which has no BCG vaccination and is poorer does much better than Spain, it’s direct and richer neighbor which does have BCG vaccination. So quite a few countries run counter this trend eventhough they are otherwise comparable. Reading the article it looks like Spain had it between 1965-1981 and Portugal had it between 1965-2017 — which seems consistent with the latter doing better? True, misread it, although this means that that the difference only applies to those under 40, which don’t tend to get hit that hard. Spain is also doing worse than Italy right now. There could be a lot of factors and it’s likely more than one.

^ I would say that NYC is still different than SF or LA in that most people use public transportation in NYC which is not to the same extend the case in SF or LA. If you ever took the subway or the LIRR (in my case) in NYC you knows how got of a transmission vector this might be. Boston also has significant public transportation for commute and is a hot spot as well. Likely other reasons like SF being really proactive (shelter in place on February 25) or perhaps the warmer weather might be factor too. That’s the thing with exponential growth models , a couple of seemingly small factors can make a huge difference in the end.

If a company does any work in the medical or related to the medical field , it’s essential. Same with Military. A lot of manufacturing business are open. I actually don’t know of any larger manufacturing business in my circle that is shut down. Stuff like semiconductors, semi equipment, Optics or even suppliers thereoff are all operating.

Some conflicting data - France and Spain are not doing well. Spain is actually worse than Italy right now. Spain and France both habe BCG vaccination.Also, Portugal, which has no BCG vaccination and is poorer does much better than Spain, it’s direct and richer neighbor which does have BCG vaccination. So quite a few countries run counter this trend eventhough they are otherwise comparable.

It is interesting to see how different some countries are doing they seem comparable. For example, Portugal was long considered a backwater relative to Spain and they have a similar mediterran culture, but Portugal has competently handled this crisis (early lockdowns which citizens actually followed )while Spain did not. This article in German but with some Google translation you can figure out what’s written there: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/corona-krise-wie-portugal-es-schafft-vom-virus-nicht-dahingerafft-zu-werden-a-41a9c2a2-ef73-4ee7-8c44-5b3cfa1fbc4e On the other hand France looks pretty bad and it looks like they have dropped the ball on testing too. A lot of lessons will be learned on this hopefully.

As has been pointed out above - working from home is terrible if you are starting out. How are you going to learn how to conduct yourself, get trained or get to know your colleagues. It’s also hard for a supervisor to get to know you. I would say a mix of working from home and a Wework like office setup, that is designed to encourage communication and teamwork ought to be something they might work well. As for myself, I am senior engineer/ project manager and support special projects (design stage) and also manufacturing. I could (and have ) worked 80% from home and 20% on site. Started to do that in March when the crisis broke out without real issues , until the company I worked for put the hammer down on individual work arrange and told all engineer that we need to be on site. I spoke with engineering managers of other companies in comparable field and they do this very differently. Oh well.

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation? I just buy long out of the money puts. Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts? Mostly I buy longer dated stuff--Jan 2021. I have some shorter dates on this name too, but mostly I'm in Jan 2021 $100s/$120s The spreads on those puts is something to behold. Bid and ask are 2x apart (order of magnitude).

No, I'd say just kill them all. They gonna die anyway. A lot of problems solved. The risk group is probably 1/3 of the population depending on how it is defined.

The EU is going to have some serious issues going forward. Italy economy has been weak and is hard hit by this crisis. the Northern nations don’t want to be on the hook for them, understandably, imo: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-fails-agree-virus-response-073133148.html Related to this somewhat is the interesting factoid that the median Italian is quite wealthy. I believe this is due to high homeownership and thriving grey economy. Perhaps the Italians should kick in before asking their neighbors to do so? At least that’s one view: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter... Lol, Galileo. Galileo's investments in Gamestop and Tailored Brands need the Church to listen! Galileo may be suffering from an acute case of incentive caused bias (Even Newton wasn't immune to the whims of the South Sea Company)... But yes, what Pres Cuomo is already planning...a strategic reopening. No matter who they are, consider them talking their own book.

Exhibits A and B for my point. Not to worry too much about the fools of randomness as the key concern for those who take this seriously was that policy makers would be among these people. Thankfully, we have seen the vast majority--even those that dragged their feet--take it seriously when reality became impossible to ignore. Even the guy calling it a "hoax" just a month ago now claims he was on board the serious person train the whole time! As policy makers have largely understood seriousness (though some variation depending on where you live), the systemic threat is reduced. Those who continue to minimize the threat confine a large part of the consequences of their views (ignorance) to themselves which is the appropriate outcome. TL;DR: don't waste time on the fools of randomness--I certainly will not. i watched a 45 minute documentary of what actually happened in Wuhan, China. It was a health and economic disaster. And then the disaster played out again in Iran and Italy. This was not a Hollywood movie. Not fake news. Yes, people it really happened :-) - Thanks for posting. Very interesting documentary and well worth watching. It quite demonstrates the drastic measures that China used after they botched the early containment.

One day after Trump/Fauci talked about mask, I saw people wearing mask at work in hallways. note that we operate clean room and grey rooms where people are wearing masks, but they usually removed them when they step out. Not any more! Goes to show that messaging from leadership is important!

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter... It’s not a matter if, It’s a matter how. Do a controlled burn and make sure it not spreading into a wildfire. That’s a going to be the game. The vaccine is going to be too late to save us

Totally immaterial. Even if hydroxychloroquine became a treatment the impact to Sanofis bottom line would be immaterial due to this substance being a generic. Then on top of this, Sanofi is a small position of this funds portfolio.

New York Presbyterian is the best hospital in the country. you probably dont know it. I know 3 MDs who admit/practice there who tell me that plaq/z-pack is very effective. not 100%, but extremely effective. ditto with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax. so what is your problem with a little truth, spek? does it upset your cosmology? give me an effing break I do understand that some people are using it, but it it isn’t Trumps job to decide. Soon enough idiots will start to take it because they hear about the wonder drug in Fox News. I don’t think it is smart for Trump to give medical advice.

I also wonder if the high stress environment that these doctors and nurses work under in and epidemic plays a role. Working with this protective equipment is tiring by itself and it is easy to get dehydrated because you may be sweating and it isn’t possible to drink, because you have to degown and gown up again (which can take 20 min) which you may not have. Details I know from talking to my wife who know has to deal with this as well now sometimes and believe me if you do this for weeks and work double shifts, it’s going to wear even healthy people out, which makes them more susceptible to the virus, I think. And yes, I think continued viral exposure may well be the main factor. Anyways, I hoarded quite a bit of Gatorade on last shopping trip, both for my wife but also if one of us should get infected as cheap insurance.