Spekulatius

A lot of people angling for Darwin awards here.

Sigh...we humans are our own worst enemy. It might be a wise decision if further market erosion would impact his retirement plans and he can live with what he got at this point. Plus he got out on a strong up day, so there is that.

As long as you have flare ups of substantial size anywhere in the country nobody will want to travel with an airplane, stay in a hotel and possibly not even go to a restaurant. Forget foreign travel where you may just spent a vacation in quarantine. We will be couch potatoes for a while. I think that will tear until spring/ summer next year and then slowly get back to normal. Getting back to work will happen much sooner. I think probably 2 month from now tops. People get used to wearing face masks, gloves and keep some distance. It’s going to become a habit. Now where do we get the mask and enough gloves. LOL.

The bill will have a lot of garbage in it regardless of who wrote it. In like the a German system better where the largest party write the bill together in committees and then do a formality vote. Germany pushed though their stimulus bill, we are in here for a period of public haggling before every party got their share of pork in order to vote on this. That public haggling is pretty much part of the process. TARP in late 2008 was just the same thing. Tell me about it Spek - time is of the essence - remember? I mean this thing has exponential growth, day by day. So let's hold the country HOSTAGE while we take our time and stuff it full of the "Green New Deal" and Identity Politics legislation. Now that is a serious partner in the war on VC. Be proud of those democrats. There is enough money to fight the Virus directly, that’s not the issue. The bill is about dealing with the economic fallout. I am not condoning delays, but they are a consequence of the existing system to write partisan bills and then get hashed out a compromise in public. It could be done differently but it isn’t.

If you invest in an asset that unlevered returns less than 1% you have to make it up through leverage and eventually will believe that cash is trash. I have entertained investing in real estate directly, but the cash returns really needed a lot of leverage to make them work. I actually think that the deals you get with public Reits are way better than most single property deals or syndicate deals that I have seen.

I think some southern states, especially Florida may get hit hard next. We have also seen the videos with the spring breakers and even last weeks the beaches were crowded as nothing has happened. perhaps the warmer weather helps, but I don’t think it’s as much of a factor for than people think. Lot’s of old people there as well, this could easily become Italy.

Had some Woodchuck cider as a starter and I am now sipping Sonoma county Cabernet. I’m well stocked and can last probably 2 month. Plus I get a shipment from my Finger lake wine club early April. If you like wine, wine clubs are great way to support a winery by the way. Mine allows to customize shipments and shipping is only $5, plus I get a 20% discount.

The bill will have a lot of garbage in it regardless of who wrote it. In like the a German system better where the largest party write the bill together in committees and then do a formality vote. Germany pushed though their stimulus bill, we are in here for a period of public haggling before every party got their share of pork in order to vote on this. That public haggling is pretty much part of the process. TARP in late 2008 was just the same thing.

Fair enough. What's your take on the Democrat's reluctance to support the stimulus bill? What do you expect of them? A revised bill is expected. I mean c’mon - did anyone really suspect that some reps draft a bill basically overnight for a blank check worth a couple of trillions and everyone else just bursts out in joy and signs this? It’s going to get negotiated and a compromise is going to get signed. TARP was similar and took a couple of weeks to get through. I think this one is going through quicker even though it is severely timed larger in size.

I know that a huge part of the population can’t handle a $800 emergency, but I am surprised they so many real estate investors can’t handle on or two skipped rent payments. I mean we are like 3 weeks into this.

Spring/Summer 2021 would be my guess. When you say this won't be over until Spring/Summer 2021, what do you define as over? Most of the population is vaccinated and there are no more significant flare ups of COVID-19.

The problem with investing based on fundamental right now is that we have no clue what the fundamental are looking like right now, much less in the future. We can anchor on past valuations but that is a poor guide when the ground shift beneath our feet. It seems to me more like an environment where a trader or macro investor does well. There will be a time when the bleak fundamental become clearer and most likely thats a better time for fundamental value investing.

Of course Trump will make that choice! - he is the evil Donald Trump and is a mass murderer. He should have been impeached long ago. While the economy gets destroyed - you guys with good jobs could give 2 shits about Joe/Mary Sixpack that lost jobs and live paycheck to paycheck. Like Trump, they are just greedy money grubbers! Screw 'em. So, yeah - NO debate needed on Trump attempting to save the economy - you guys got it all figured out! You guys are a joke! I didn’t state what choice he is going to pick, but you did.

Anyone else cracking open a brew (or else) while working from the “home office”? Discuss!

Spring/Summer 2021 would be my guess.

Lack of buyers , some forced selling. It’s the Wild West out there. Act accordingly and have your revolver loaded and ready to shoot. According to my rough calculation the buyer @1025 bought LAACZ at an unlevered cap rate of ~20%. Of course the earnings may go down somewhat, but it is really really difficult to see a scenario where this isn’t a good deal. Up 77% today to $1822 #feelsbadman for the forced seller yesterday. Crazy. Best performing name in my portfolio for the day. I think between LAACZ longs and the Public Storage puts that are up 17x or whatever, I may actually be net zero on my storage investments this year. Well it was the worst performing name in my portfolio yesterday and the best performing today.

I wouldn‘t put much credence in any valuation that is more than 3 weeks old right now.

Lack of buyers , some forced selling. It’s the Wild West out there. Act accordingly and have your revolver loaded and ready to shoot. According to my rough calculation the buyer @1025 bought LAACZ at an unlevered cap rate of ~20%. Of course the earnings may go down somewhat, but it is really really difficult to see a scenario where this isn’t a good deal. Up 77% today to $1822 #feelsbadman for the forced seller yesterday. Crazy.

If this takes long enough the movie industry will just release movie to view at home. If one studio breaks the mold and it‘s a success, others will follow and from then on, the industry would be forever changed. I would guess that movie theatre‘s will still exist, but there will be far fewer of the, and they will be like entertainment hubs with various activities of choice.

This isn't politics. This is a public health issue, and not a theoretical one. The person in charge is incompetent to deal with it. If you want to pretend this is politics, fine, but it isn't. I don't care he's right or left, blue or red, purple or orange. if he was acting rationally and competently in the face of the COVID19 threat, I'd applaud, but he's not, so I'm explaining why I think that is. Now stay civil or get out. LOL Let me know if you think this political: 1. Hillary's a narcissistic personality disorder and likely a sociopath. 2. Biden's not intellectually capable. They were/are the Trump alternative. Can we stick with criticizing the strategy and skip questioning the motivation? Why are you wasting everyone's time trying to derail this thread with unrelated things? By understanding how someone thinks and what motivates them, you can make predictions about what decisions they will make. Trump is currently the president. It's very important to understand how he thinks in this life or death situation with huge economic and institutional impacts on the US and the world. Those who pretend that he's a normal person have been wrong about him at every turn exactly because they don't realize how he thinks and what motivates him. I am pretty sure if it’s the choice is between his re-election and 500k dead, I know what he is going to pick. Telltale sign will be Fauci resigning.

Great resource about Coronavirus from Michael Lin: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZaiDO87me4puBte-8VytcSRtpQ3PVpkK/view?usp=drivesdk

What you are describing is essentially the danish plan - a 3 month paid timeout for the economy.

I kind of wonder a bit of people are going to consider if they want to live in urban vs suburban environments in the future. Above is how my “ backyard” looks this morning. Looks pretty good to me, considering we have basically pandemonium going on outside. And I still live close enough to civilization to have a decently paid job (so far).

Not only that, but politicians and particularly health & safety politicians seem to have some difficulty understanding the populace. One example: yesterday our mayor in Denver communicates a "stay-in-place" order; the exceptions being essential industries and going out for groceries & medicine. Then he says, "oh by the way, liquor stores and recreational marijuana are not essential industries - so they will be closing tomorrow". So of course, the entire damn city floods every liquor and weed store to stock up. Lines around the block, social distancing be damned. Now I'm not sure I could design a better way to transmit a virus if I tried... Then of course 3 hours later he has to re-classify liquor/weed stores as essential industries. I mean, c'mon. LOL, the public clearly demonstrated what they consider essential. Liquor stores are open where I live too.

I think Fauci is going to resign very soon.