Spekulatius

It's mostly due to historic reasons (WWI -> WWII -> Bretton Woods) and the fact that at least so far the USA is willing to cover the costs of having a reserve currency (the benefits are mostly political). There is no alternative in sight. There's no other country that would accept this burden. Same with foreign countries buying USA debt. Having the dominant reserve currency is a blessing and a curse at the same time. In a time of Crisis, it is a huge blessing. I am quite concerned about a few countries defaulting if the liabilities form the COVID-19 crisis get too expensive ( Italy, Mexico? Brazil). We in the US can borrow almost as much as we want, without any problems, at least no in the short run.

I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea. True, they are on an exponential trend now (just checked). Maybe they were just covering it up while they mulled over deciding what to do w the Olympics. That’s my suspicion too. We will find out. You can cover up 1000‘s of cases in a Country of this size, but when it goes to 10k or 100k cases, then Cover ups don’t work any more.

I am not in Architecture, but the outfits I was working for use Solidworks and sometimes Unigraphics.

Kasparov couldn't be more wrong. OPEC+ is a cartel. Everyone knows that OPEC+ is a cartel. Trump's tweet is nonsense and ill-advised, but there isn't anything criminal about the US President asking the largest OPEC+ members to reduce oil production in the face of a worldwide glut and historically weak demand. It‘s Ok to ask, but does anyone believe what Trump tweeted is actually real? He has duped the markets before...

I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea.

Yea, Greg - Trump should have taken that Bill DeBlasio approach - keep Chinatown open and tell everyone to ride the subway WEEKS AFTER January 31st. Now THAT is real leadership saving thousands of lives in NYC! “The Facts Are Reassuring,” De Blasio Says on March 2 “The facts are reassuring,” the New York mayor said during a March 2 press conference alongside New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. De Blasio added: “We have a lot of information now, information that is actually showing us things that should give us more reason to stay calm and go about our lives” normally. “Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” de Blasio told his Twitter followers on March 3, no more than two weeks before likening the outbreak to a type of world war that required nationalizing industries. Nothing to worry about in NYC - but if it changes, we can blame it on the President De Blasio has been shown to be incompetent. Cuomo and Newsom and Inslee have acted competent. I am no fan of Newsom, but in this matter he has acted responsibly.

Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment. throwing inventive means you dont have a clue Spek. I put you in the Dalal pile I am honored to be in his pile.

Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment.

It is obvious that you have never worn a mask. Besides, a mask wouldn’t suffice , you would need to desanitize every touch surface and wear PPE. Think hospital setting and even that doesn’t work as many infections from healthcare workers show. Constant exposure is very hard to mitigate.

Any post-lockdown plans will surely involve mass serological testing of those who are vulnerable and isolating those who test negative, while the rest of us will take care of herd immunity. there's no other way. agreed. but this should have been the "lockdown" plan as well. establish "health census" for underlying conditions and elderly and confine the mitigation resources to them. all of these epidemiologists are using stupid assumptions as to what our health objective should be. it should NOT be reducing infections among the entire population. it should be reducing infections of a targeted population. you need someone with common sense to tell the epidemiologists what to model. Specifically what assumption/parameter do you believe is being widely used and incorrect? Again, your entire assumption is dependent on everyone non-elderly getting CV such that we have herd immunity. Herd immunity generally starts at ~80% of the population. Further, it's not been shown that immunity is long lasting or prevents repeat illness. Many epidemiologists have cautioned that this may not be the case. 29% of the US population is >55 years old. https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D ~5% of kids are raised by grandparents (this ignores all kids raised by older parents) 20% of the households in the US are multigenerational. Unless one wants to cull the herd, Herd immunity isn’t going to work in such a setting.

NY may be the worst now, but I am not sure it remains that way. I think Florida maybe similar and perhaps some states like Lousiana (New Orleans) and Texas who stayed too long with the “it‘s just a flu” mantra will pay the piper too. This will roll through all states without fail.

Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL. I generally don‘t buy the directly affected Company, But the collateral damage. These stocks may be down less, but typically their exposure to the calamity in question is way less, making them a better risk reward. In terms of the current situation, Imam not sure that airlines hotel are a good buy currently. It seems that most airlines are probably zeros in a prolonged scenario and hotels may at least have raise capital to survive.

You think people are going to stop going out for a year and a half? People who wants to avoid getting COVID, yes. I absolutely feel like any recovery will be very muted, especially with travel and entertainment and any activity regarding larger groups until a vaccine is available. Given the timelines for a vaccine (at best 12 month from now), I think a lot of hotel business, Restaurants and most airlines are going to be zeros.

Doing fine myself. Outperforming the sucky index so far, which really doesn’t mean much. My main worry worry is that wife works in a relatively High risk position in ICU as a nurse and now started to get Covid19 patients. Hospital is short on PPE; hopefully that will get resolved. I hope that the Health care System holds up and can take care of the patients. We live on the border of NH and we still see a lot of complacent people all around, including at my work. I am quite worried about this becoming a depression and destroying wealth and the social fabric on a massive scale. The unemployment numbers that economists have been throwing around are mindboggling. My sense is the depth will pale the GFC and the damage to the economy might make recovery very difficult. see this in no way being priced in and it is a big worry, once we got over the epidemic itself.

I have no opinion right now. I don’t buy it back and quite frankly, unless a business is absolutely bulletproof, I am inclined to just wait a couple of month and see what the fundamental looks like post Covid-19. Let face it, at $70, this wasn’t really cheap. It was only cheap relative to very bloated comps. It will be interesting to see how they hold up in a recession. I would particular look at retaining pricing power.

It’s not anti dumping be sure the Saudis and the Russians still make a profit. Anyways, the tariff would just be a tax on consumers since the US also exports crude. Adjacent industries (petrochemicals, refineries) probably would need to close because they are not cost competitive.

You can argue that if you are dealing with a stranger, there is no bad offer. An offer is just that, and the solicitor isn’t obliged to take it. You could argue that the worst of is no offer, not a terrible high interest or cheap one. Same Opi you. Are a lowball bid on a stock that gets filled , because someone gets a margin call. It gets a bit more difficult if there is a social construct around it like the solicitor is a friend or even someone from the same town or it’s Deal with a community bank. Then there is an issue, both moral and reputational for both sides.

Overvalued, imo. Planes that aren’t flying don’t need spare parts. Heicos business will be down, perhaps for years and the valuation in no way reflects that.

How much did they sink in LV and London so far? Hopefully that these things will never get build. They were a bad idea when the economy was going great and they sure aren’t a good idea now.

The Virus might go into the Brain too. It would explain a lot.

So, if the bank automatically defers three months of loan payments, does that mean that it can pretend that everything is okay, and not crank up the provision for credit losses? Whereas, if clients approach the bank individually and ask for a deferment, or if they just fail to pay without any previous conversation, that would require pumping up both the specific and general components of PCL? Just trying to understand what game the bank is playing, and why. SJ The game is called extend and pretend. Apparently government approved.

Mc Kinsey presentation , comprehensive, economic viewpoint: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/risk/our%20insights/covid%2019%20implications%20for%20business/covid%2019%20march%2025/covid-19-facts-and-insights-march-25-v3.ashx

The coming quarter will suck for FB ad revenues and GOOG’s for that matter, because people are not buying much and man business are not advertising. Ad revenues tend to scale with GNP and if GNP is going to be down 20% a quarter, FB and GOOG are taking a hit, even if they increase market share a little. I do agree that user engagement is way up for FB.

The problem with empty stadiums is loss of ticket revenues. This is particularly acute for Hockey which doesn't get much TV money. Ticket sales are around 70% of NHL revenue. At that level they probably can't cover expenses with empty stadiums. But even for the mighty NFL ticket sales are still around 40% of revenue. Can you actually operate at these level? As far as I know a lot of these teams don't actually make a lot of money. Some revenue is better than no revenues. Players will need to take pay cuts.

The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first.