Spekulatius

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast. lower tax coast? What is that? CA? ::) Also, data? My house in CA was taxed at 1.25% of purchase value plus an inflation adjustment. I paid about 4K in taxes for my house. I bought a house for a lower value in LI. Tax was 11k. It was considered low because the proper owner fought the taxes otherwise they would be 12.5k. My house in MA is taxed 1.8% of fair market value (it cost a bit more) - 10k. So yes, the RE taxes in CA are lower, especially if you are in the house for a long time, because of Proposition 13 and a lower tax rate. Of course adjusted for the enormous prices in the Bay are you may pay more in absolute $.

In general, I agree (there are shades, but in general you are right). I'm afraid that with the attitude in this thread small businesses should not expect much (anything?) from investors either. Government help it is! Buying shares or participating in an secondary offering or a downround of a startup is anonymous. Giving a vulture loan to a business in dire straits is not and it pretty much hand on. Same than being a slumlord for example. It’s two different things. I don’t think there is something wrong with either one necessarily (your CC Company will happily rip you off with 20%+% interest rates) but dealing with individuals is high touch and you could get yelled at or worse.

I have a good sized property but I still think that parking would be an issue.

A lot of things will not go back to normal until we have a a vaccine. Sport, air travel, Cruise lines, concerts are examples. These sectors are looking at a long winter. Some sports are probably going to be plaid in empty stadiums for TV only. Takes away some fun and atmosphere but its better than nothing.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.

The best argument for facemasks, of any kind, regardless of their filtration efficacy, is that they stop people from unconsciously touching their face. Was listening to a doctor from NY being interviewed on the radio and he said the vast majority of community spread cases (as in not family members) came from a person touching their face rather than breathing in droplets. If you're in close proximity to someone with the virus for a prolonged amount of time, yes the aerosolized virus is an issue. However, for the majority of people who are not exposed to infected people more than in passing, a simple mask coupled with an awareness to not touch your face will reduce your risk significantly. Masks do two things. - they protect the person who is wearing them and in protect everyone else around a pot. Infected person too. The Virus main mechanism of transmission is droplets which occur when talking or coughing. A mask will capture most of those, if an infected wears them protecting her people around. Even an imperfect mask should be a filter and dramatically reduce the amount of drops and their reach, both coming and as well as coming out.

Skilled workers shouldn’t be a problem. I do agree it’s the idea time to do infrastructure, with resources being idle otherwise. That’s how the Golden Gate bridge and the Hoover damn was build during the Great Depression.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.

Yes, it seem that Washington state is under control for now. Hopefully it stays that way. Sometimes it actually is good to be hit first. I also think in Washington’s case, the governor did a good job, but I think part of it is just luck too. Social distancing is rally hard in NYC as well, it’s way easier in less densely populated areas. The other worrying hotspots are Florida, New Orleans and I believe Washington DC as well.

It will be interesting to see how it works. Something they works in one country, may not work in another. Sweden has a good health care system and the people in general are way healthier than most other countries including the US (much lower rates for asthma and obesity compared to the US or Germany example) While they are taking some risk, the Swedes are also considered responsible so if the government brings the hammer down, they will probably see pretty good compliance. I think a lot can be learned how each country approaches this and how they do, but it is difficult to compare this directly and conclude what works in one country will work in another as well without adjustments. Italy and Spain are socioeconomic and cultural similar and have a similar outcome in this epidemic for example.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know... Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes. Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so. Maybe if you get a camera crew he will show up at Elmhurst? Everyone looks forward to Coronacrisis season two this fall?

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I think it is crucial to keep the timeline to reopen the economy as short as possible and in order for that to happen, new infection rates will need to come down. Well now pretty much the consensus seems to be that it'll be a recession. But consider that this is a moving average. A couple of weeks ago most ppl thought we weren't even gonna go in a recession. I was probably among them. Now I don't see how we don't even get a normal recession even under the best circumstances when we open. A drop in durable goods. Think about it, you went through a layoff, it's a freaking virus, you don't know if it comes back again or not, whether you get laid off again or not. Are you gonna go out and buy a new car or washing machine? My guess is that for a lot the answer is no. So a recession. I'd like to add that we recently haven't been doing very well with the recessions. So let's say that the best case scenario is we have a 2001. Sure! But honestly 2001 didn't feel that freaking good. There is no way we are going to avoid a recession. The Economic numbers this quarter and next will probably be the worst on record. Futures down 1.4% so far. Not too bad.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know... Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes. Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so.

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate :o Literally his words.

What news from Europe has been "not so good"? Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe? What stat in particular doesn't look good? Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly. I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break. What are you guys talking about? I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now. No more growth at all? Seriously? The numbers of newly infected/day has been stagnant at ~6k people daily in Italy for example. That actually is progress. Spain is still get worse, but the rate of growth has leveled off. Not great by any means but better then exponential growth.

Interesting example of news Priorities for a NYC newspaper at a day when POTUS thing was about sealing of the great NYC area:

So, my wife went to work out one of the three hospital she’s works for yesterday and they told her that the surgical mask shall be worn for 5 shifts before getting discarded. This is a surgical mask, not even the better N95’s that are handed out as PPE. Unbelievable!. If you ever worn a surgical mask (I Have worn similar ones in clean rooms) , you know it’s not going last 5 shifts. This particular hospital is just at the beginning as first patients just rolled in the newly rigged up Covid floor (it’s correctly named droplet control floor but everyone calls it the former). Her boss told her at the beginning not work without proper PPE which is provided by the hospital. She doesn’t work technically fo the hospital since she is working for a company which is a contractor for specialty care (dialysis). Things are awfully tight when it’s just beginning. I don’t like the choices she has to make.

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I think it is crucial to keep the timeline to reopen the economy as short as possible and in order for that to happen, new infection rates will need to come down.

What news from Europe has been "not so good"? Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe? What stat in particular doesn't look good? Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly. I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break.

We have got a couple more hours until the futures open - anyone want to make a guess which way? I think it’s down, possibly limit down. Those who still work on Wall Street are probably in their helicopters or stretch limos and get out.

I agree. The “it’s just a flu” crowd should be thinning out by now. 100-200k dead dead is higher than the number in the model I posted.

Holy cow. Makes it real. This is gonna scare everyone working on Wall Street He was 56 and in good health.

For defense companies, the pensions are paid by the tax payers. The costs are rolled into the contracts.

Earnings are tomorrow after the close, actually :) I wouldn’t be too optimistic for this “essential” business: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/27/business/gamestop-employees-wrap-your-hands-plastic-bags-go-back-work/?s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending