Jurgis

Spekulatius mentioned this on another thread, but posting it here too for posterity: https://lillianli.substack.com/p/alibaba-from-growth-to-value

I also subscribed to their daily trade notification - thanks for a pointer. And I also see that they are buying a lot of slower growing old companies. E.g. NVS, Roche, etc in ARKG and CAT, DE, LMT, NXPI, etc in ARKQ. This of course lowers the valuation of their holdings, but also hits the expected growth of the holdings. We'll have to see how it's gonna ultimately play out. Just pretty clear that ARK funds are no longer holding just high-growth revolutionary companies.

It wasn't four days. And the guy's name was Jack Ma. ::) Cats taste like rabbits, I have heard. At least that’s what my grandpa told me, based on his culinarily experiences in WW2. OT. My step-grandpa was in Gulag and told that cats taste like crap. Dogs taste better. I think that's mostly true. Carnivore meat is supposedly not tasty and that's one of the reasons it's not eaten. Humans on the other hand...

It wasn't four days. And the guy's name was Jack Ma. ::)

I have another related and somewhat obscure USA tax question. 8) Following situation: US person invests in Canadian SPV as an LP. SPV in question invests its funds into a startup. The startup is not controlled by SPV and is not a subsidiary of SPV. US person is minority of LPs, so I don't think this would be "US controlled company". Questions: 1. Would this be considered a PFIC? 2. Would this be considered something that is even worse than a PFIC from tax standpoint? 3. Any other (tax) issues, caveats, nasties for the said US person? As before, I'm not asking for tax evasion advice - I'm interested in the fully-compliant above-board rules.

My INTC :D My VMW :'( Or maybe it's the other way round.

Tsk... you outed me... ::) Instead of 2K leaps, I decided to go with 4K March options. YOLO! Dang, I was just going to post this. Coulda shoulda. You posted it first, but I'm gonna go one-up you and buy more $2K leaps.

Dang, I was just going to post this. Coulda shoulda. You posted it first, but I'm gonna go one-up you and buy more $2K leaps.

You should either keep existing 401k or convert it into personal 401k. If you convert it to traditional IRA, backdoor contributions would become complicated and not tax efficient.

Thanks. Makes sense. 8)

Why would COVID hurt the growth of a mobile operator or Internet provider? I'd think that COVID should have resulted in higher growth since everyone uses mobile/Internet more. Is this purely the issue of LatAm currencies tanking? TBH, I stopped following LILA a while ago. ::)

MetaCritic score 86. Steam reviews: Mostly Positive (about 300K reviews). This is on PC. I have not played the game. I have no position in OTGLY.

Not necessarily much. Joint ventures frequently don't work out. There's usually not a lot of support from parent companies. And the structure is not necessarily beneficial for getting the take up. Edit: Also IMO Haven had a wide and not very clear mandate. One way to make JVs work is to have a narrow mandate and forcibly transfer the business to JV. E.g. if BRK/JPM/AMZN would have forcefully transferred the medical insurance/benefits of all their employees to Haven, then Haven would have had heft and a real mandate to minimize costs and to maximize benefits to work with.

As predicted: https://havenhealthcare.com/

Yes, that capitalist paradise of USA taxes the gain on principal residence. Although there's a pretty large margin that is not taxed, so it affects (very?) few. I'm surprised that our "socialist" Canadian neighbors think that https://www.irs.gov/faqs/capital-gains-losses-and-sale-of-home

Barron's had a positive article on Yelp: https://www.barrons.com/articles/yelp-stock-deserves-a-positive-review-51608836323 After which the stock popped 15% or so. Looking at FCF, the stock seems cheap if we can assume at least a modest 7% growth. OTOH, their growth has been dropping before Covid and it's unclear how much growth will resume after Covid. Barron's claim that Yelp now has majority of revenues from non-restaurant home-and-local services. This is likely why 2020 results are not bad. Still not sure if they can hold/sustain/grow these revenues. There's clearly competition from ANGI - although personally I don't think much of ANGI's reviews but then I don't think much of Yelp's reviews either. :-\ Barron's claim that Yelp is looking to monetize more of the home-and-local services. If this works out, it could provide the growth. In general and looking at this thread, I'm skeptical about the company and its management. It seems that they had a brand and a moat and if they did not squander it, then at least they did not manage it well. Seems similar to TRIP, where the brand and moat and value seems to be there but the company continuously underperforms goals and expectations. I should go through the numbers to figure out the large difference between income and OCF/FCF. Anyone has done recent work on this or has thoughts/input? 8)

Assuming we can trust the reported numbers, the shares are rather cheap. Morningstar predicts 22% growth for coming 5 years. Even at lower growth, the shares are attractive. OTOH, I would not dismiss the potential of antitrust penalties that could negatively affect the business and the share price. IMO it's a real risk, but it's to be seen how significant the penalties are. I doubt that Ant Financial will be allowed to IPO soon, but that does not necessarily kill the bullish narrative for BABA. For fun and posterity, I also made predictions on stock price ( https://finpredictions.com/questions/what-will-be-alibaba-stock-price-june-30th-2021/ ) and Ant IPO ( https://finpredictions.com/questions/will-ant-group-have-ipo-june-30th-2021/ ). Disclosure: At this time I have a position in BABA.

Really classy behavior here Picasso. Personal attacks and insults. Way to go. ::)

Looking at their sales, it looks that 2020 Q2 (Jan-March) already showed sales drop mostly pre-Covid. So I wonder how much 2020 revenue drop is due to Covid and how much is just poor sales?

IAC up ~14% on Vimeo spinoff news. Was planning to swap (more) ANGI for IAC, coulda shoulda. Now I'm thinking of swapping IAC for ANGI (going the other direction). In other news:

AOL meet TimeWarner. 8)

Impressions on the teas in my latest order: - Kenyan Tinderet - I like it. Not sure it's better than cheaper black tea that I can buy online - Tie Kwan Yin - it's pretty good Oolong tea. I'm not that much of a fan of oolong though, so probably won't reorder - Gyokuro Yamashiro - Japanese green tea. I liked it. It's expensive though. - Yuzu Matcha - I think I like it. - Strawberry Moringa - they put one bag for free into my order. It's not that bad, but has somewhat artificial taste. I've had way better strawberry flavored teas from UK and Lithuania.

I have a feeling at some point there's gonna be a deluge of unwanted second-hand RVs and the companies will crash. The timing might be tough though. (And I don't short).

That's the problem for most near-term bear theses on Intel: AMD simply does not have production to take Intel's market share. It's possible that things will change in couple years, but adding 5nm capacity on the Intel production size is not gonna happen in months. Disclosure: I have some Intel. Longer term the situation is not great.

Those shares were loaded into the launch vehicle and failed to launch into orbit. OT disclosure: I sold most my SPAC warrants recently, including FSR, VVNT, IPOB, IPOC, and too long to list. I may or may not buy/sell/etc. these or any other SPAC shares or warrants as vehicles are launched or not. ::)