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Everything posted by Jurgis
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SPACs as Cash Alternative with Upside Optionality
Jurgis replied to shamelesscloner's topic in Strategies
So far still possible to pick up 2-4% in couple of days across the spectrum of noname SPACs with 2-4% downside only (i.e. buying at 10.20-10.40 range). I'm not holding for warrants/deals even. If it runs up, I just sell. Might not be the best tactic, but I don't want to end up with huge position in SPACs if market decides to nosedive. And holding somewhere in 10.80-11 range has a larger downside even if you bought at 10.20-10.40. FWIW. Pretty annoying to put in a gaggle of orders. And Fido insists of sending me paper stacks of prospectuses. I'm gonna get buried in paper... ::) I wonder if there's a way to get them to stop... (They also pay up to $8 on each for postage...) -
Or Satya Nadella taking over Microsoft. ::)
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When you watch his early videos, you realize, he is a very rational deep value investor. He apparently bought several deep value positions like Teck, CWH , RFP, Alcoa and a bunch of other commodity in March. Some of those were ten baggers. GME was just one of those things with a skewed risk reward back then. So I think he would usually sell out, it this is in fact a very atypical situation in terms of the publicity he got. That's also a very good question to ask. He got 13M in cash. Yeah, he can liquidate the rest for 20M yesterday or 7M today. But really is it better to go out with positive publicity or with "screw everyone I'm rich now"? On yet another hand, nobody ever gets out on top. So CoBF is yet again Monday Morning quarterbacking telling DFV when to get out at the top two days after the fact. I'm sure if he listened to local experts, he would have sold his position maybe at 500K, maybe at 1M tops. ::) The pothead in the big short went out at the top. Gave a big fuck you to everyone (everyone!) and then moved to a Caribbean island to chill and smoke pot. Now I'm not anywhere close to a fan of pot, but that guy's my hero. He didn't make it in the movie of course. I'd probably taken 20M too. But I'd never gotten to 20M on such investment so ./shrug. And for a young guy publicity/reputation might be more beneficial. 8)
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When you watch his early videos, you realize, he is a very rational deep value investor. He apparently bought several deep value positions like Teck, CWH , RFP, Alcoa and a bunch of other commodity in March. Some of those were ten baggers. GME was just one of those things with a skewed risk reward back then. So I think he would usually sell out, it this is in fact a very atypical situation in terms of the publicity he got. That's also a very good question to ask. He got 13M in cash. Yeah, he can liquidate the rest for 20M yesterday or 7M today. But really is it better to go out with positive publicity or with "screw everyone I'm rich now"? On yet another hand, nobody ever gets out on top. So CoBF is yet again Monday Morning quarterbacking telling DFV when to get out at the top two days after the fact. I'm sure if he listened to local experts, he would have sold his position maybe at 500K, maybe at 1M tops. ::)
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Well, yes, it's 13M loss. But if he did not have ? to hodl, he would have never made it to 13M+ that he also took of the table. So ./shrug , you can't tell him howz to playz dis.
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Actually there is somewhat cheap labor from Eastern Europe in all of these countries.
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Hopefully Bill has learned to short carefully...
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Unfortunately this thread's topic thesis is killing relatives without any discounts. :(
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Efficient markets is God and WSB is his prophit!
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South Korea ETF is possibly not much better bottom to now compared to some other buys bottom to now. There is Turkey ETF too, but I have no clue if it's cheap/attractive or if it contains very different businesses to what Pabrai bought on Turkey market.
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Quicken is likely enough. Haven't used Sharesight. Not sure how easy it will be to ingest your data into Quicken or Sharesight - depends on what accounts you have and what else you want to get in. Quicken IRRs may be broken in certain corner cases. They have been in the past. I think they fixed most of the issues, not sure if all of them. I don't care about exact IRRs anymore to bother digging deep. No clue about Sharesight IRRs.
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How to make money from this crash - Lessons from 2008
Jurgis replied to ukvalueinvestment's topic in General Discussion
From what I see, there are no mutual funds or ETFs tracking Wilshire Equal-Weight 4500 :'( -
It is very possible to have instant (in human time scale, in computer time scale obviously it won't be 'instant' but would take a few microseconds) settlement even today, the reason it is not like that is netting, netting is the concept that you don't have to change the ledger every time a trade is done and if in the mean time offsetting transactions occur you don't need to register them at all, netting is done to lower the cost of trading since millions of transactions can be netted and there would be only one lump some of money transferred between the brokers instead of millions of cash payments for really small sums. Thanks for the response. From a computing/distributed systems perspective I agree near real time is possible. But still a very hard problem. We know how to build these systems in practice but in reality it’s hard to build them correctly. But not saying it can’t be done. But I think daily or bi daily settlement gets us much better visibility. Less intrusive of a change. And firms can still net or batch, just more often. I am sure they can deal with that. I guessing that netting happens on a daily basis today but the lag to settle the netted transactions is T+2. Reducing the 2 to T+(EOD-T) would be a big step. The problem isn't on the stock side, the problem is on the cash side. Cash has to move from one party to the other an the cash rec departments at most FIs are just crap. IIRC isn't ACH or whatever the companies use for cash transfer still at T+2 or T+3? Edit: IDK, maybe some Fincos have something faster to settle cash.
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Jurgis, you seem like an awesome guy to have a few drinks of single malt whiskey with Sometime. Some time. 8)
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I am also supporting the WSB crowd. I might lose a couple of Gs but I hope something good comes out of this. As the WSB crowd likes to say ? ?. Ah shucks, you guys are making me bawl :'( in sympathy... #games ? #moon ? It's a bit cold to moon people, but solidarity rulez! ?
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Especially since both Chamath and Elon would be like #games #moon !
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While some of us in Boston were twiddling with our ... pencils... ... dis dude ... Oh well. ::) That's why we are still on CoBF
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Hold on. I am totally WSB stupid. I finally realized why RH is restricting GM shares. Cause clearly some WSBers mistype their GME orders. Makes total sense now. Carry on. Nothing to see here.
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LOLMFAO. You can buy 1 f*ing share of GM per day. ROTFLMFAO This is epic RobinHood please IPO soon. I want to buy 1 share of your stonk. I also want to have your babies. ::) Democratizing finance one share at a time. Do they (still) allow to buy partial shares? What if I wanted to buy just 0.1 of NOK share? Asking for a friend. ::)
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LOLMFAO. You can buy 1 f*ing share of GM per day. ROTFLMFAO This is epic RobinHood please IPO soon. I want to buy 1 share of your stonk. I also want to have your babies. ::)
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It's not clear that majority of squeezed stocks could go BK. PLTR definitely not, NOK likely not, SLV likely not, Corsair likely not. Thanks. And thoughts on BB probability or sequence of events to go to BK? I was planning to look at BB financials sometime. Will post if/when I do. 8)
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It's not clear that majority of squeezed stocks could go BK. PLTR definitely not, NOK likely not, SLV likely not, Corsair likely not.
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Would you rather follow Kardashians or WSBs? ::)
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Definitely. Everyone should switch to the one or two remaining full service brokers asap to be treated as a client and charged $50 per trade of commissions. Do it right now KKTHXOK. Or move to Canada and use one of the bank brokerages our Canadian friends rave about.
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+1 I hope if they don't sell they have a better answer than "we believe in the future of the company" But what if BB really gets installed in every car and stonk goes TSLA sometime late 2021 or 2022? ::) 8) :o