Jurgis

Even the largest growth stocks (FAANMG) are not "absurdly overpriced". Some of them are actually somewhat cheap. FB. GOOGL. I could make a buy case for most of FAANMG. Real estate? Depends on location(s). A lot of US RE is comparable to or way cheaper than Europe or Canada or Australia (AFAIK).

Good piece. Reminds me of the John Gilmore quote "The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it". I think eventually the same will happen here and Apple will adapt or not. IMO that quote has not been true for quite a time now. :-\ I disagree. What do you consider successful censorship on the Internet? Both Apple and Google app stores and overall mobile ecosystems. Amazon Kindle ecosystem. Facebook and most other social networks. The fact that you can route around means exactly zero when 90-99% of users won't and you won't be able to reach them. IMO the quote would be true only if some majority of users routed around the censorship. Edit: Per CoBF rules I don't touch the political side and mention only mostly commercial censorship.

Good piece. Reminds me of the John Gilmore quote "The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it". I think eventually the same will happen here and Apple will adapt or not. IMO that quote has not been true for quite a time now. :-\

Yeah, I can imagine having kids as customers is a pain in the neck for e-companies. But still big business. I wonder if Apple could do something extra for validation/authentication, but it's likely most good/feasible solutions are children law privacy nightmares.

It makes a lot of sense for Apple to acquire Roblox. Roblox is operating in the grey area of the Apple store ecosystem. Apple would face a huge pushback if it banned Roblox from its Apple store. However, if it does not ban Roblox from the store, it will face pushback from other game platform companies that are not allowed on the Apple store. Acquiring Roblox would be a perfect solution that resolves this. Also it would put Apple into a moaty brandy family friendly ecosystem that IMO matches Apple's brand and company culture. I am going to predict that Apple won't buy Roblox though ( https://finpredictions.com/questions/will-apple-or-another-company-acquire-roblox-end-2021/ ), since Roblox is likely to be very expensive and Apple is quite conservative with acquisitions. Plus Apple infrequently acquires software or gaming companies.

This is like LOLZ wtfpwn stupid outside money dudes... ::)

Problem of buying SPACs at 80-90% value during the crash is that usually you can buy other stocks at the time that are way cheaper. Sure, SPACs may be "cash good" and not risky, but you're still likely leaving a lot of money on the table. Unless you lever, but then it's not that "not risky" anymore. Personally, if we crash now, I will very likely sell the SPACs at 80-90% value rather than buy more.

Not sure about the BTC online transactions, but BTC ATMs have a huge buy/sell spread. Something like 20% or so. ::)

I sure hope he doesn't understand supply and demand and its effect on prices and he tries. Supply and demand? Pffft. That's some first level thinking. Elon playz some seriouz 4D chezz Tesla market cap ~= BTC market cap. Offer Tesla shares for BTC and boom done.

If Elon plays this right, he could buy almost all BTC. ?????

Yeah, that’s my question too. For me gold looks like a better bet, especially in a scenario where interest rates are artificially held back and inflation runs hot, like some have alluded to may happen. So, I keep buying small chunks of IAU in one account where I have the most cash (and IRA account). I sort of regard it as a cash alternative knowing too well that it can develop downside volatility in a choppy market. Guys, he's buying TLT for deflation/falling rates scenario, not for inflation/rising rates... ::) He actually explicitly said:

Thanks for insight @patience_and_focus @cameronfen - good question, but I don't know more than what's available publicly. 23andMe could also provide the services that ActX provides: https://www.actx.com/

Not to derail the discussion on ARKK, but Ballinvarosig, your mention of Cathie Wood describing herself as a “deep-value investor” reminded me of this interview I just listened to with Chamath Palihapitiya where he says almost the exact same thing to describe his investing style. Not sure that I agree, but what do I know?:) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/invest-like-the-best/id1154105909?i=1000507423983 I too am a derp-value investor.

I want this Where do you live Jurgis? I know a guy in the SF Bay Area who can make this happen Thanks. First I need ? to do it... ::) 8)

Did the Labcorp Pixel at home Covid test: https://www.pixel.labcorp.com/ Just FYI as a possibility for people in US experiencing symptoms.

I want this

Edit: I think Spek is referring to this: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1804591/000095010321001779/dp145636_ex9902.htm ................. Yeah, the DNA testing revenues is not why you would buy this. $199 or $99 a non-repeatable pop does not multibillion business make. The value is in the genetic info library they collect. If I was them (or another DNA testing startup I have looked at), I'd do the tests for free and capitalize on the data. So there's no "pivot to therapeutics" - genetic info use for therapeutics IS the only business that makes sense. Not saying that it's cheap here. The right question to ask though is what that genetic info store worth for the right applications. Edit: I see they are also planning to sell subscriptions. This might be OK revenue source too although I wonder what exactly they plan to deliver via subscription. Right now as a customer I'd be annoyed if they subscription-gated my reports.

Publicity is reflexivity. I'm likely gonna add this to my sig.

I mean, they're just investigating, no judgement is made yet. But I get your point, of all the shady crap that goes on, this is the one they decide to delve into... Remember the good old days, when the SEC were literally handed a full blown case into a hundred billion dollar ponzi scheme, and did absolutely nothing with it? If they did not investigate, there would be an outcry that they are not investigating... ::)

23andMe ( https://www.23andme.com ) DNA testing company going public through SPAC. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1804591/000095010321001779/dp145636_ex9901.htm 23andMe, Inc., a leading consumer genetics and research company, and VG Acquisition Corp. (NYSE: VGAC), a special purpose acquisition company sponsored by Virgin Group, announced today that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement. Upon completion of the transaction, estimated in the second calendar quarter of 2021, VGAC will change its New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) ticker symbol, and the combined company’s securities will trade under the ticker symbol “ME”. IMO it's an interesting company in an interesting space. They have some issues with revenue. They have tons of genetic data. Just FYI. Disclaimer: I have done DNA test(s) through 23andMe and I have filled out way too many of their questionnaires in the name of science . They say I'm in the top 1% of their customers in terms of info provided. ::) I may hold shares or warrants in VGAC and ME when it's renamed. Do your own DD. 8)

I hold IAC in a non-taxable account, so I'm considering selling with an eye toward re-buying after the Vimeo spin in the event Peridot is right and the post-spin IAC declines by alot more than $5 billion. The obvious alternative is to do nothing, and if Vimeo jumps after its IPO, sell it then. If I was holding IAC in a taxable account I don't think I'd sell yet. Selling almost anything in taxable account is usually wrong choice. 8) Majority of my holdings are in non-taxable accounts, so taxes don't get into the decisions.

I think that most of the parts are not that great (including ANGI) and therefore I'd rather not pay over SoTP especially with some of the parts (Vimeo) inflated. But I've been consistently undervaluing this. And I still hold largish position. So ./shrug. I would not buy here. I probably should sell some, but possibly won't FWIW.

The problem I have with noname SPACs is that they stay noname for a long time. CCAC was trading around 10.4 2 months ago and it has gone nowhere dince. It got up to 11 ish today but it was trading at 10.5 yesterday (Considered long in the SPAC land). I know I'm deviating from the original value based thesis, which is to buy into SPACs close to NAV and wait for the deal announcement pop but there is another play here if you want to improve your returns but it also increases your risks a little. If you were to break down the behaviour of a SPAC, it is simply a function of: (i) how fast it is likely to merge and (ii) how attractive the target is. Like what Greg has said, SPACs have embedded time value and actually increases in value as the deadline approaches since the chances for a deal becomes higher. Branded SPACs come out of the gate at a higher price because of higher perceived (ii) but increases in a lot value faster because their perceived (i) is a lot shorter. This is aided by the hype that their holders (Typical robinhood, Reddit, stocktwits people) would build around these SPACs with their speculations and rumours. While my CCAC has gone up by 3-4%, QELL (a slightly more branded SPAC) that I had bought for 10.8 at about the same time has gone up to 13-14. IPOD and IPOF are both going for 15, 16 when they were 10, 12 two months ago. Heck, if I were to sell QELL today, it would give me an even better return that most of the noname deal-announced SPACs that I had. The good thing is I didn't even have to stick around and wait for the deal announcement if I don't want to. Ironically, just like investment, sometimes it pays to pay a little more for "quality". If you can find a branded SPAC that can goes for 10% premium or less, I would say go for it. Ronchong, it sounds like you're optimizing for FOMO, whereas Jurgis is optimizing for downside protection. Be careful that you don't drift higher and higher from the floor riding the wave of SPAC euphoria. Well said @shamelesscloner. 8) @Ronchong - yeah, your approach may work fine. I am a bit concerned that we are getting to the late innings of the SPAC game and that there might be a reckoning at some point. I may even pull out from the "can't lose" strategy of buying at 1-2% over $10. It's possible though that I'm early in my skepticism. Chamath vehicles are clearly popular and attractive at the right price. Anyway, I've done SPCE warrants, VVNT warrants, NKLA warrants, IPOB, IPOC warrants. Sold all of those at huge % gains (not huge absolute sums, since I don't have ? to buy big and hodl). Still have a bunch of small warrant positions in various "interesting" SPACs, most at double/triple digit % gains. I just don't think it's as attractive SPACe ;D as it has been. Peace and ?

I only exponentially invest with money managers who exponentially expound the exponent of my capital.

How do you go broke buying GME calls? Gradually, then suddenly. ::)