Gregmal

100% correct observation wescobrk. While all the value investor fanboys often quote things about "the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term", very few actually get it. At least not in any sort of useful way and that is why they underperform greatly. Unsophisticated investors(generally speaking) are unknowingly the voting machine. Sophisticated investors, largely think and convince themselves they are the weighing machine because they bust out the calculators and spreadsheets and run DCF analysis and all that mumbo jumbo. The unsophisticated tread water until the tide goes out, and the weighing machine crowd sits around underperforming, clueless as to why. The real opportunities are when the two converge; aka a catalyst. Others call it timing. If you are looking to short Peloton, wait til theres a catalyst. Until then you'll just ride the wave of the voting machine; which if I had to guess, is probably up, short term.

Sold small PLCE position from yesterday. Not looking to make anything retail a core position, so Ill just take 6% in 24 hours and call it a day.

I definitely have a short bias towards this, however agree. Specifically with the Citron short endorsement the other day. What most dont realize is that the more exposed these things become to the premature short attacks, the more resilient they become to them, and ultimately, the longer they stay elevated and/or become prone to rip hard the other way.

Which will then become the crescendo; the blow off top; the euphoric rally that signals the end is near!

While GME is definitely challenged, the H2 2008 comparison is laughable. Pretty much everyone was having a liquidity crisis at that point in time.

Started a small position in PLCE under 55. May write it up later... Interesting company in an interesting space. Yes...retail

CLF assumed a large amount of debt and pension liabilities with AKS.

closed for $1.5 in a half hour

shorted some EVER

No background on that. Serious or sarcasm? Dead serious. Israeli small cap that rolled up the space through low risk bolt on acquisitions. 10 bagger in like 5 years until IFF bought them.

Yea Im in between here. One, I do like LG and this is a combo jockey bet for me. I really wish this was the same type of setup just in another sector...I hate commodity type businesses and all the variables one needs to account for with them. But CLF has/had tremendous FCF, a large DTA, and somewhat of a pure play aspect to it. At least prior to the AKS deal. So I loved everything, other than these being an IO company who's end market is like 70% auto. But there were things that balanced that out for me. Over time, the cash flow should crush the debt and a repurchase would have been able to significantly cut the share count. The large short interest would also be rocket fuel. Then IO came back down to earth. LG is a great leader and stand up man, but I also happened to notice some inconsistencies and probably things Id consider outright lies which I dont like. Now, taking on AKS, a company I ve always disliked, changed the thesis a bit for me. Yes, if it is a jockey bet, and a move like this is pure LG; you cant be that shocked by it. But I also think talking about an EBITDA ratio that relies on TTM, which was likely encompassing significantly higher prices than you'll realize NTM, is misleading and potentially hazardous. I cant even count how many well intentioned acquisitions Ive seen completely fuck up companies. So that changes my risk tolerance here and although it still could very well be a savvy move, I'm not really looking to be rocking a 5%+ position if there are that many things than can go wrong. I am still long a reasonable position though, currently ~4%.

Oh Frutarom...what a gem that was. Those guys were some of the best I've ever seen at rolling up companies.

Exited BLUE trade from Friday and trimmed a bit more CLF

Lots of insider buying at Cliff's since the deal. Also, Mesabi just filed for arbitration against Cliff's subsidiary Northshore Mining. The subject matter likely relates to how they've been recognizing the DR Grade pellets being stored for HBI. It also explains the somewhat increased expenses incurred by the trust the last few Qs. So, the amount in question isn't really material for Cliff's but can sizably bolster future MSB payouts, which have already been rolling in around 90c even with the poor IO market conditions. We should get another 85-90c or so announced in January and Im anticipating something at least around 90c again in April. But these now become the FLOOR for whats received. Arbitration rulings could lift that, and reading the tea leaves, my guess is if the issue relates to when payments are recognized, Mesabi is saying it should be paid now, vs Northshore saying later(as in Q1/2) we will get a major increase anyway. Or LG could just do his thing and offer to buy Mesabi...

So, summarizing, at least how I interpret the last maybe half dozen posts... depending upon the preference for inputs, DD is sandwiched within a range of being considered an average but nothing special business trading reasonably cheap, to a modestly undervalued, great business with some financial levers to pull.... As this summary then gets thrown onto the dart board of "everything else", I think that on a relative basis it's not a bad place to be especially given where a lot of the rest of the market is. Which is why I have a little bit of cash there. But would be waiting for lower prices to put on something of larger size.

PureCycle Now derisked with Phase I concluding in the next year, phase II overlap starting in the summer, almost $2B in eventual asset value, a debt free balance sheet, no question about profitability, and earnings that should compound impressively for the next decade at least...all taking place in a top MSA, 4 miles from DIA...

Adam Jonas, the guy who put a $125-$250 per target on Tesla when it was a $30 stock apparently thinks this is worth $22.... Its a tempting short(and eventual zero IMO) but could also continue to rip shorter term. It seemed everyone and their mother was hugely negative on this and rightfully so. However there is enough of a bridge between now and when they will have to produce anything sort of meaningful, where meaningless shit will move the pps. I'm stalking this for sure, but hoping to avoid all the whipsawing that probably takes place in between.

If you like this you should just look at Mesabi Trust. Straight forward and no shenanigans.

Epic stuff here. Bravo Mr. English.... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4310971-ezcorp-inc-ezpw-ceo-stuart-grimshaw-on-q4-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript

Yea I'd say if history is any indication, we're due for a little turbulence. Its rather easy to see where he is coming from when you have remarks describing the market gains as "house money" and "room to play"...and he still has other people to blame as well, in fact more than ever currently...so I'd be surprised if there isn't a modest temper tantrum on the horizon.

I’m no expert but I do know and consider friends, several very prominent people in the NYC restaurant space. 10% is the consensus but that’s apparently a number my guy says is low because the minimum wage increase is a torpedo that most haven’t yet accounted for. I would think Detroit is a very different market though.

They’re not.

Bought a few shares of BLUE after hours. Not sure why the company would post great news Friday after the close, but its an opportunity for me to make money, so I'll take it.

Property managers IMO arent worth much unless they are versatile. Its a low barrier to entry, low skill job. Really, the best property managers are just really good with relationships and very organized. But for rentals its hard because of the model. Everyone takes % of rent when really you'd see much more value if it was done on an hourly or per job rate. But they need to get paid when they're not doing anything..... Its like the handyman thing. My GC/friend will swing by and replace a valve on his way home. He'll charge me cost for parts plus like $30 an hour...Whereas any plumber/HVAC company will charge minimum $125 to show up and then labor plus part markup. Whereas a property manager, would get the notification a valve needs to be replaced on the water heater and hire a company(which btw you have no idea if theyre worth THEIR rates either), and on a pass through basis, you are double paying for every problem to be fixed. The above example cost me $40 vs probably north of $300 with the property manager/HVAC pro scenario. Shit like this almost always happens in one form or another. I agree 100% if you're mortgaging and renting you shouldn't be looking to make money right now. Ive even made offers where I would be losing a few bucks for a while, just depends on what you're trying to accomplish. Something else hugely helpful in my scenario(although definitely be careful) is condo/townhouse HOA communities. I can offer to buy a property without even viewing it, knowing that the only big material cost in a unit is the HVAC. Tell me the age of the furnace and condenser and I'm able to make an offer on the spot. Everything outside, from the roof to the decks is an HOA responsibility. So if you're in a good area your HOA fees act as a barrier to entry, and you also kind of get the pass through property manager benefit. In a simple way...just buy good properties and try to match up costs of carry with rental income. +/- a few bucks isn't a big deal just make sure the mortgage gets paid every month. If you do it long enough you're guaranteed to own the asset eventually. You also have the add on(non monetary benefit) of building relationships with the people you rent to, and often get to know you're helping someone out. Providing them a place to live and make memories. The returns are much lower than playing the stock market, but it's much safer, less time consuming, and many times you actually feel like you're creating something positive in the community vs just flipping pieces of paper to other money whores.

I actually just got through Halt and Catch Fire after your recommendation. Me getting through a TV series is a feat in and of itself. Overall I liked this show. Seasons 1 and 3 were great. Season 1 in particular was amazing. Season 2 was terrible IMO. Basically a frat house with daytime drama and relationship bs. Season 4 kinda sucked as well IMO. After a while, you also kind of just roll your eyes at how the story continues to push ahead. First these guys stole the IBM product, and would've/could've/should've been the ones to create the Mac. Then, they basically developed Ebay. Next they invent Google. Like I wasn't around that environment and dont know what it was like in that space; maybe everyone in SV was really all on the cusp of creating the same things...but I dont buy it. Keep it grounded in reality. You dont need to have Joe McMillan stare off into the distance, and dramatically deliver a "what if...we took.......(insert major tech them that emerged half a decade later)" in EVERY SEASON. Glad you (partially) enjoyed it. I still haven't finished season 1, but so far I like it. Got side-tracked with other things (Barry, Succession, Killing Eve -- all enjoyable so far). Yea my critique reading what I wrote sounds harsher than it is meant to be. I did enjoy this series quite a bit. I thought season one was terrific. It really, and genuinely, did a good job of portraying the corporate roller coaster, the trials and tribulations of people trying to make it, then need to be fearless and relentless in your pursuit and even the necessity to operate in some grey areas. The small fish trying to make it in a big pond. It also really showed how far IBM has fallen but also how people during that era saw the writing on the wall with them before everyone else did. Similar to what people in the 80's thought of GM.