Gregmal

Or, they wanted to give the market a way (and time) to digest the info and react appropriately. Personally, I think it’s kind of shitty to release significant in the middle of a market day when someone may have a limit sell or buy order, and the person on the other end of the trade reads a filing and does a back of the envelope calculation quicker than them. So I guess they had no choice then but to pick July 3, after market close?.... Couldn't have waited til December 24 closing bell I guess. You know, to really, really give people time to digest? Something like this is as deliberate as it gets, and shouldn't be to anyone's surprise. All this company has done is throw in turd after turd, burn shareholder money, and then make excuses and spin shit off like its all just fine and merry and things are ok. What a disaster. It is amazing the amount slander people ignorantly throw around. What day was the transaction? What day was SEC required filing? Do you know the rules? Probably not. So you are slandering them for deliberately following SEC rules. Pathetic. I get being upset about performance or the price of the sale that is fair game but attacking character when you are completely in the wrong is disgusting. A company I am involved with made a filing today too. Why? Because it was legally due on Friday and the office is closed on Friday and Thursday is a holiday. SYTE's filing was due today. Oftentimes lawyers are still finishing up details on documents that have to get reviewed before submission. All these people have done is make boneheaded at best, and self serving at worst, moves and then make excuses or just shrug it off as "we tried and it didn't work". Most material events must be reported within 3 days. I find it hard to believe that the ONLY time, any filing could have occurred was after the close on July 3. Why not before the market open when people are paying attention? I've even spoke with management teams that request closing of transactions get delayed/moved up a few days so that it can be reported and recorded at a more appropriate time, ie able to be discussed during an earnings call, or lumped into a quarter or calendar year in which it was figured into guidance. Its a real feat to destroy capital like this, in a real estate transaction, in such a short period of time. I don't even think I could do this if I tried to. This deal saves $200K per quarter? How much would they have saved having never done this transaction, which if you read back, many here questioned to begin with(some even for the exact same reasons cited as why it had to be sold).... Where is the accountability? This should be liquidated immediately.

Or, they wanted to give the market a way (and time) to digest the info and react appropriately. Personally, I think it’s kind of shitty to release significant in the middle of a market day when someone may have a limit sell or buy order, and the person on the other end of the trade reads a filing and does a back of the envelope calculation quicker than them. So I guess they had no choice then but to pick July 3, after market close?.... Couldn't have waited til December 24 closing bell I guess. You know, to really, really give people time to digest? Something like this is as deliberate as it gets, and shouldn't be to anyone's surprise. All this company has done is throw in turd after turd, burn shareholder money, and then make excuses and spin shit off like its all just fine and merry and things are ok. What a disaster.

Indeed, happy 4th and Happy Birthday! Proud to be an American, although not everyone is. Notice, not surprisingly, lefties are just fair-weather/bandwagon Americans... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/07/02/american-pride-falls-45-gallup-poll-all-time-low/1636428001/

LOL outside of the US most of the world still runs on manual transmission diesel vehicles. Its taken the US decades to even get together the half assed EV network we have now.

Does this narrative explain his recent results? Or did his recent results create this narrative? He has a highly concentrated portfolio. Could be just variance, which investors have a tendency to explain. Lowe's, Starbucks, Chipotle, HHC, QSR, these all have a common theme to them which is much more consistent with where he has had success prior. Not exactly small caps either. Much different than the profiles of JCP, VRX, PAH, HLF, etc. Basically stuff that is either highly complex, loaded with debt, or dependent on fixing major structural problems.

The thing everyone keeps missing is that it isn't hard to give away something at less than cost. Especially something nice. They've got a long, long way to go to start actually making money(not fudging their figures with credits, deferring vendor payments and phantom gains), and then an even longer way to go from there to justify their value as an auto company...Not really the smartest bet.

Ackman actually, quite admirably, acknowledged he made some mistakes, did some soul searching and then was active about making the changes he needed to(mainly shutting up, stopping with the TV appearances every 2 days and focusing on research), and seems to have gotten back to basics and is investing in his circle of competence. Not like some others, such as Einhorn who still refuses to admit he is wrong and keeps making the same mistakes, or Tilson who just gave up. Kudos to Bill

$10 Sept calls on OSTK

Gregmal - between BX and HHC you're killing it. Sold FPF and bought back TLT puts. Thanks Lance Thanks. HHC was just a lucky timing thing on a gut feeling. BX is a longer term position for me and proof patience pays off. Now if only GM can follow suit... I am getting a little bearish though...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3475334-kellogg-seen-vegetarian-sleeper The Street is waking up!

Trimming some CLF and probably BX too. What an under the radar monster BX has been this year. Even prior to the conversion announcement.

Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks. Why MSG over MSGN or vice versa? I own both. MSG is a top 5 position for me. With over $1B net cash you are basically paying for the Knicks here, and getting the Rangers, Rockettes/Radio City Music Hall, The Garden, and the Entertainment biz for free. The lower it goes the easier it becomes to plow money in. Under the $6B market cap number, there really isn't a better risk adjusted security out there. These are one of a kind assets that always do well over time. Pick any decades and then scale out. The returns on sports teams are insane. Even the mediocre ones. Here you own the best in both sports. MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSG is a buy and hold forever. MSGN you'll have to trade to get your returns. I get that Knicks is a more famous club and has much better fan base in NY area regardless of its dismal performance on court. But why do you think Knicks is worth more than $5b while Nets was sold for $2.3b last year? I've lived in the NY/NJ area my whole life. I am a Devils fan, and used to root for the Nets when they played in NJ. I can only tell you that the difference between the Giants and the Jets, the Yankees and the Mets, Rangers and Islanders/Devils, and Knicks vs Nets, is very substantial. Its not even close. Its like the Lakers and Clippers except the Nets are even less relevant(although maybe now a bit more so) and play in a poorly constructed, but newly built arena under a long term lease. One is iconic, playing in the worlds most famous arena, the other is the red headed step child.

MSGN is the entity the bears the most direct risk from continued sub declines, correct? Specifically, distributors pay MSGN a fee per subscriber, while MSGN pays MSG a fixed (and escalating) fee for the Knicks/Rangers media rights. On the other hand, MSGN seems to be the most immediate beneficiary of increasingly legalized sports betting. With respect to MSG, how do you feel about the Spheres? Yes, that is accurate. My take, and what's kind of been the case for the past couple years, is the pros and cons kind of negate themselves and while I expect the declines to continue, they should be moderate. Whereas if you get any number of things, such as the gambling, or a deep playoff run, stand alone streaming options, or say, the Knicks landing a decent player, you have some nice upside. If all else remains equal, at a single digit multiple, you'll make some money if nothing changes. I also think it is a when, not if scenario in which we see Dolan sell this. He doesn't want the cable company and my 2c is that the Disney/Fox RSN transaction needed to occur first. That is clearing up soon, at which point I think Jimmy pulls the trigger here. The spheres I don't care for. I like adding real estate/venues. I like the JV structure. I dont like the amount of capital it will require. That said, I am glad they are spinning that off. I would be supremely pissed if they levered up the sports teams to build new venues with unproven economics.

Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks. Why MSG over MSGN or vice versa? I own both. MSG is a top 5 position for me. With over $1B net cash you are basically paying for the Knicks here, and getting the Rangers, Rockettes/Radio City Music Hall, The Garden, and the Entertainment biz for free. The lower it goes the easier it becomes to plow money in. Under the $6B market cap number, there really isn't a better risk adjusted security out there. These are one of a kind assets that always do well over time. Pick any decades and then scale out. The returns on sports teams are insane. Even the mediocre ones. Here you own the best in both sports. MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSG is a buy and hold forever. MSGN you'll have to trade to get your returns.

Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks.

How did you get a 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda for $4.79? To be fair, they are sliders, so its probably equivalent to maybe 4 real burgers. But the secret sauce... Shoprite manager's specials. Typically stuff that's expiration date is within 48 hours. These are normally $6.99. Buy yourself a deep freezer, and take advantage of near term expirations and holidays. Value investor lifestyle lol. You should have seen my wife's face when I came home with 15 3-4lb slabs of corned beef a day after St. Patty's Day. $1.49 a pound for meat thats typically $6-$8 per lb. My son loves hot dogs... 4th of July sales I'll probably buy a dozen packs of Sabretts for $2 per that normally run $5.49 each. Greg, That's amateur stuff, have you ever bought 10 pounds of mussels just trucked in from PEI for $11? Or a five pound box of portabello mushrooms for $9.99? The freshest stuff you can get. It makes Costco shopping look like chumps. As a seafood junky, that sounds amazing. I'd need another deep freezer for sure! Also just reminded me of another nice get around. Need a quick getaway? Take an hour and a half flight to Bermuda with the wife for the weekend. There each of you can purchase 2 bottles of anything your want(and bring home with you) at the duty free. Last time I snagged a 1L(not the 750ml they typically sell here) at Glenlivet 18 for $79 and a Jamieson 18 year limited reserve for $75. You can also get some Cuban cigars for dirt. Although I am not sure if it's legal to bring those back. When I went it wasn't but all you have to do is buy a box of $5 garbage and sub them out and you're good.

Trimmed FRPH into that late day spike north of $55.

small starter in AYR.A

How did you get a 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda for $4.79? To be fair, they are sliders, so its probably equivalent to maybe 4 real burgers. But the secret sauce... Shoprite manager's specials. Typically stuff that's expiration date is within 48 hours. These are normally $6.99. Buy yourself a deep freezer, and take advantage of near term expirations and holidays. Value investor lifestyle lol. You should have seen my wife's face when I came home with 15 3-4lb slabs of corned beef a day after St. Patty's Day. $1.49 a pound for meat thats typically $6-$8 per lb. My son loves hot dogs... 4th of July sales I'll probably buy a dozen packs of Sabretts for $2 per that normally run $5.49 each.

I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

I didn't really pay much attention to AGN, what did Billy Boy do? I don’t recall exactly every detail, but more or less...He pitched Mike Pearson on having VRX buy AGN, with the agreement that he would first go out and buy a 10% position(along with having VRX buy some time too which I believe he finagled a profit share agreement on). He then built the entire position using OTC calls so his capital outlay to acquire 10% of a $60B company was only like a couple hundred million. Upon announcing the deal he more or less made 100% on his money in a few weeks. Until of course he had to give it all back in an SEC settlement. Well, “supposedly” he did those things. One of the ballsiest things I’ve ever seen.

Yea lets not forget the stunt Billy Boy pulled with AGN. Certainly not out of the question, and IMO more likely than not his own interests figured into this. This has nothing to do with HHC fundamentally though. Outside of the fact shareholder just got their next 3 years worth of returns in one day.

Same here. That went well. I pushed the sell button on this one a little too quickly this morning, which was an unforced error. That said, it's hard to complain about the results for a position I held less than 48 hours. I thought it was a little too cheap in the mid $90s, but I'm not nearly as bullish on HHC as some of this forum are. I also sold my small Bayer position this morning. Yea I bought this thinking if I could get a quick bounce to $100 I'd be thrilled. Did a little better than that, but not much. Dont care. Like you, I am not as hot on this as others, although that isn't to say I don't like it. When you trade, you have to follow your rules and be disciplined. While theres always remorse when something keeps soaring, you have to remember that pigs get slaughtered. I dont really ever sell my core holdings, and I trade on margin, so staying within the parameters I set for myself entering a trade, is a must.

HHC

Seth Klarman, one among many underperforming value investors, with a denigrating and condescending tone around his remarks, called Bitcoin a "trading sardine". In fact here is what he had to say: "There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters in Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and the price of a can of sardines soared. One day a buyer decided to treat himself to an expensive meal and actually opened a can and started eating. He immediately became ill and told the seller the sardines were no good. The seller said, 'You don't understand. These are not eating sardines, they are trading sardines.' Like sardine traders, many financial-market participants are attracted to speculation, never bothering to taste the sardines they are trading. ... trading in and of itself can be exciting and, as long as the market is rising, lucrative. But essentially it is speculating, not investing. You may find a buyer at a higher price — a greater fool — or you may not, in which case you yourself are the greater fool." Meanwhile, yesterday, Klarman got a life raft when Abbvie decided to acquire Allergan, a position he found to be more to his liking. Nevertheless, on his "value investment", Mr. Klarman is still said to have lost over $100M as his basis was significantly higher than the acquisition price. Prior to the acquisition, Mr. Klarman was likely down 30-40% on his AGN position. What I find hilarious is the premise that "OMG DONT BUY THIS ITS SPECULATIVE, ITS FOR MORONS, ITS A MANIA, YOU MIGHT LOSE BIG!!!!", when these guys then go and end up suffering the exact fate they snidely predict others will, buying "their own" type of investments! They underperform, then they need to make excuses why they are missing things. SO they disparage the people that are making money rather than say, "I didn't see that way to make money".They play the "sound and responsible fiduciary" card, but as a money manager, your job is to make money, not be a fiduciary. Give me all your money and I'll buy 30 acres and bury it in a fortified compound and have it guarded by people with AK-47's all day.. I'm not raising capital on that despite being a great fiduciary. Make money, or shut up. A good money manager is fine waiting for things, but also needs to be able to see what is working and what is not and how to capitalize on what is working. Sure there are a lot of idiots buying Bitcoin, and Tesla, and Beyond Meat. Figure out how to make money off the idiots.... Not sit there and whine and make excuses and disparage those who are actually making money...