Gregmal

Whoa. On first glance this actually looks like a very interesting idea. Will look further at this. Thanks for the writeup. Quick couple questions. 1) Doesn't selling to a leasing company cut out a potentially more profitable avenue for the business? Is this relationship by choice? IE have they debated leasing or is this just not as attractive/economical an avenue to pursue? 2) The recycled plastic space is from my experience, 75% salesmanship and 25% product quality. I take it there is definitely key man risk here, but outside of this, do these guys have a big sales team or is this mainly a company built on industry relationships? 3) Given the price discrepancy with wood vs plastic, how do they convince companies to make the switch? I would think if the payback period is about 5 years, that is a tough sell to bigger companies running on typically tight budgets. Otherwise it does seem, especially with the 10 year Miller relationship, that once companies switch over, business is sticky. I'm just curious how these guys get better penetration into the market.

I will probably get lambasted for it but I like Merlo. There are certainly faults (overpaying for acquisitions being the foremost) but I think the very long term vision for CVS's role in the future of healthcare is ahead of most others. They are more diversified and vertically integrated now and while they are not as good at retailing at Walgreens, that is becoming a smaller component of the business. Given the breadth of the businesses now I think his key role is making sure the people running the 3 businesses are the best out there. Again though, this is an oligopoly right now with huge tailwinds so hopefully it is becoming a business that can overcome weak management even if that's the case. Thanks. Yea I kind of agree with this. From the outside this kind of seems like a business that is good enough to negate the effects of a less than stellar manager. I'm trying to hunker down and determine whether this outside view is concrete enough to base an investment on it. I agree WBA is better at the retail end of things but frankly dont think this will be too much of an advantage for too long. There are only so many places where you can charge $2.50 of a 2-liter of soda or 30% more on grab and go products that are much cheaper at other stores or online. So I see that advantage eventually going away. I think CVS decided to give this up when they stopped selling cigarettes. My ideal scenario is they take this year to smooth things out, pay down some debt, and then just spit out cash like a broken ATM. We will see.

In the event of the LP issue, from what I've heard, it may or may not be more time and cost productive(vs doing it yourself or paying your accountant) to just report the income on federal, and then have the states send you a notice and just pay it then plus whatever incremental interest charge/fine you'd get on $10 or $50 or whatever.

This has gotten interesting IMO. All that was already discussed here aside, I think potentially having $10B in FCF during their "transition" year is pretty impressive. Shorter term debt maturities aren't overwhelming and should easily be covered by FCF in excess of payout. My question to those that follow; what do you guys think of management?

After much debate, some of which spirited, some of which informative, and some of which just rehashing of already knowns, I felt ok enough about this to buy some exposure to this and some financials I liked, through BRK back in January. My main concern then, was the fact that they are sorely lacking the ability to innovate; which is what made them the company they are today. A credit card is not innovation. At least they will make some money off of it though. Thats AAPL to me. Not a melting ice cube, but a glacier. Solid fundamentally with a big enough base that it'll be OK. But not to be confused with something extraordinary anymore.

Yup. I don't get the appeal; in college getting a ton of wings and a quarter keg for a Thursday night was fun, but other than that I haven't ever known people, let alone entire families who just have wings for dinner. This definitely isn't a Europe biz IMO. I've never really understood where their customers come from entirely, so I've never been comfortable owning it(I briefly, and unsuccessfully shorted it a while ago). I mean going even further I would say(without doing much research) that their customers are predominantly males. I've never known women to jump at the chance to get all dirty chowing down on wings like barbarians. This really isn't the type of food you quick order on your lunch break either... My understanding is that initially, Roark and a bunch of pre-IPO guys wanted out fast. That was the basis for many of the special dividends. IIRC Roark finally blew out around $29. That seemed to be holding the stock back. Now its nearly tripled. Nevertheless, I see aspects of what makes this biz unique. I see areas where they can improve. I dont see much international growth. There are enough companies I understand and offer compelling return profiles that make this an FYE story for me.

I would agree with the above just from my local observations. There are not many big names in the space they operate. They do have great brand power and have been clever with endorsements. However the food is mediocre, their prices are very high, and when I want wings, I prefer local competitors. Nevertheless, in terms of name recognition and scale, when someone wants wings, these guys will always be the first ones to pop up. I also would not give a ton of credibility to the VIC write-ups. If you are wrong for a little while; sure, it may just be a case of the market being a voting machine in the short term. When you are wrong for years, or in the case of WING, a half decade, you are clearly missing something. Many people didn't get DPZ until it was too obvious either. Granted, these are different business models, but this isn't just a no brainer short because a bunch of hedge fund guys dont understand it. Its been quite incredible watching this being called some outrageously valued no brainer short back in the teens, only to watch it go to $75 and issue a shit ton of special dividends as well. Total home run if you've gotten this one right.

FRPH

This is now a multi bagger from the 8K heard 'round the world that many called the worst they'd ever seen and claimed was the death knell. For myself, unfortunately I did not have the discipline to see this through entirely. But just goes to show following the crowd can be dangerous and blind people to opportunities. I mean at one point this was priced as though bankruptcy and judgments/penalties were known and appeals were exhausted when anyone with an understanding of the legal process knows at best, it would be 6-12 months before any of that even starts to occur.

I like the cautionary tale you are telling, but I wouldn't have chosen those tickers to support the narrative. Plus, I can think of other cases I am more skeptical of, but I won't name them. On the other hand even if you had chosen BH (which has had a lot more time to play out than some of these examples), there would be someone out there who would want to disagree. I don't know how that one slipped my mind. Although there, I feel its crossed a line and he doesn't even try to hide the ridiculous antics. Whereas here and with PDH, the managers seem honest, but nonetheless still seem to want to run up steep mountains that are covered in ice...and there seems to be plenty of shareholders who say "here take my money" good luck!

Its commendable just the same as Sanjeev's honesty is with PDH. But at the same time, these are terrible investments made by people and supported by investors, who should know better. From the company managements perspective(insert SYTE/PDH/BOMN/whatever in there) its freaking awesome. Its like the week long fantasy camp where for 10 days and $10,000 a few middle age dudes get to go participate in spring training with the Yankees. Living out their dream because they have the resources to make it happen. Fine. Worst case you have a great job; get to be "the man" and get funded for a few years, basically being able to do whatever you want. These are basically "I wanna be Buffett too" ventures. And like I said, its cool and all, but I think it says a lot about the shareholders "wanting to believe" rather than thinking with their heads. I mean, I look at people who invest in get rich quick schemes, and "the next time thing" story stocks(like OTC marijuana stocks right now) as a certain type of sucker. These type of stocks aren't scams like those are, but they are basically sucker stocks from more sophisticated folks. Buffett is basically a fairytale, or the exception to the rule. People need to stop touting him as the reason why the impossible is possible from mere mortals. Or using his story as an excuse to make bad investments.

IdK but anyone investing in something like this gets what they deserve. They are visible as POS’s (at best) from a mile away. At worst it’s wishful gambling on a needle in a haystack endeavor. I’ve been pretty critical of all of these “projects” that are present on websites like this, and frankly, cant see why anyone would invest in something like this. Did anyone really think they’d hit a moonshot buying HVAC businesses? I mean come on... There’s so many easy places to make money and yet it seems so many intelligent yet capable folks on places like this spend so much time debating arbitrary nonsense like estimating BRKs intrinsic value to the nearest ten thousandth of a decimal, to on the other end, weaving together overly optimistic pictures of nonexistent dots, trying to justify a crap investment.

I would agree that the above seems to be most likely. However if there was ever a case that could be brought against a management/BOD for breach of fiduciary duties, this would be it. My understanding is that in addition to poor disclosure, there may even be outright lies here relating to the "strategic evaluation". You can't say there weren't adequate offers when you may have refused to let people even bid. Should be another interesting story to watch play out, and heck, maybe invest in.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/phi-inc-takes-action-to-address-maturing-debt-strengthen-its-liquidity-and-balance-sheet-and-position-the-company-for-long-term-success-300813039.html Quick summary- management totally f*** shareholders... However there seems to be value here, especially in the bonds.

I admittedly know nothing current(from within the past quarter or two) regarding economics; this one is strictly in the no touch category for me. But, has SD ever demonstrated that they can sustainably profit from drilling their locations? I ask this not to be a jerk but my understanding of the Mississippi Lime, and pretty much all of their previous endeavors, plus the trusts they spun out, all demonstrate that this is a total crap shoot, at best. The decline rates are way higher than industry standard, and it seems they just remain committed to pouring money into the assets they have rather than cutting bait and liquidating/selling themselves.

The CEO letter was quite peculiar, but he's always been that way. Frankly, I am not shocked by the poor results given the ridiculous allegations that made national headlines in October and November. This was a bit of a fad, but it also has it's niche and is still a premier brand. Adding to gfp's comments, I have never bought this is a grocery store. I buy it at Costco. I go through maybe 8-10 cans a day. I did notice Costco blatantly ripped them off about 6 months ago. I tried the Costco and its mediocre but then, quite surprisingly, Ive noticed lately La Croix completely changed their Costco pack from the traditional flavors. I still buy it, but not sure if that's the case for everyone. I would think we see some stabilization in sales. Sparkling water is a growing market, La Croix can lose share and still grow revs. Bottom line though, IMO is that the only real upside catalyst at the moment is the CEO putting the company up for sale. Which, if he truly feels an injustice occurred, might be the best way to prove the naysayers wrong.

If there is a deal that would get through, Netherlands and Korea would probably have the best odds, combination wise, IMO.

Back over $100 now. Not bad from the August deal break. Spectacular IRR if you were buying low 80's and under a couple months ago. Rumor now Samsung wants it. FD: Took 25% off at $101.

So basically there are elements of truth in stereotypes? The liberals must be outraged!

In other tax related news, Bryce Harper wanted to go to the Giants, but passed because of the atrocious tax burden California politicians are imposing upon residents. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/aoc-effect-california-high-taxes-235930772.html

Any way they can steal from people they will

I typically buy a few shares if I have any interest in following. I have specific accounts for specific types of investments as well, that way keeping tabs on them and their peers is easier.

Can you share you thoughts on this? Personally, in terms of how I am positioning, I think as you get closer to a US/China deal, you are going to want to be less overweight US. I have been massively overweight, so I am in the process of reducing exposure. For a long time I have been seeking a good India play. Xiaomi is dominant in India and growing like a weed. In terms of the business, after looking into it further I believe it is largely unappreciated and not well understood. The core business IMO is not really the smartphones but the advertising and services. Lei Jun is an impressive fellow, and Shun Wei Capital(their investing arm) seems to be positioning for dominance in the IOT/AI markets. Where better to be than India/China with a free call option(eventually) on the US? To me, this has the potential to be a mini-Softbank/Tencent. Very long run way.

1810.HK

I wonder if Dalal will chime in and tell us how Tesla has more dead EV customers than BMW, Jaguar, and GM have total EV customers combined. And that he's still eating popcorn.