Gregmal

Has there ever been a positive turn around story? I haven't heard of one. The reason there is not is because there is no incentive and the people in positions of power only react in in a reflexive manner to issues. There is no upside and all downside for the town officials and politicians. The problems are largely because they have it too good. So to fix them they have to remove the punch bowl from not only their office, but from the offices of all their colleagues as well. Which again is a very unpopular thing to do. So instead, they just milk it for all it is worth and then pass the problem to the next in line. Thats why these things never get fixed. The only half assed efforts to "do something" are raising taxes...

I use Maven on the Gig side, not car sharing. I think it's a good service. If they can't make money renting their Chevy Bolt to me at $290 a week, I don't know what else to say. I dont doubt that there is potential here; I dont think any company goes into a venture knowing its a bad idea but does it anyway. My point was moreso to highlight just another example of how a company takes on a riskier venture rather than just keeping it simple and buying back stock.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gms-car-sharing-business-to-end-service-in-eight-of-its-17-north-american-cities-11558382917 Oh just another example of ambitious managements shunning boring old share repurchases to pursue some unnecessary business venture that ultimately incinerates capital...

Yup, the scoundrels pounce. It amazes me how many people think they will print money "investing alongside" these type of companies. The same applies to the logic bending narratives with BRK and Warren doing all these benevolent things just to be an amazing person and make shareholders rich. Dudes who produce outsized returns do it because they maximize what they can extract from an investment. Not because they make everybody super rich by passing around free lunch tickets. These types of guys/groups almost never act in the interest of ALL shareholders.

GOOG

Big fan of the preferred. Pays monthly and yields just under 10%.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share. Plus you have to pay short term capital gain tax, and tie up the cash in the account until put is expired. Like Warren said, if you like the stock, just buy it. Eating like a chicken yet shitting like an elephant... Not my cup of tea.

There seemed to be plenty of optimism about new ad units being released. Could that explain the price jump? I was going to buy more this morning but decided to buy something else once GOOG jumped. Yea I had an order ready to go right before the close yesterday as 1120 seemed excessive. I ultimately convinced myself to hold off because I'd deployed a fair amount of cash elsewhere recently and todays move is what I get for being a pussy. Google I find tends to overreact often. More times than not it is to the downside but there is no reason to be buying a stock like this on a +4% day.

MPC is quite interesting from a value POV. Their cash flows that can be used for buybacks or dividends exceed their earnings due to the cash stream from the MLPs. Twas the toast of the town, best of breed, sector champion maybe a year ago...now its poo poo. I don't see much that has changed to warrant such sentiment shift.

I can't figure out how to make money with CRSP and EDIT but found the following useful as it covers (the basics) the playing field. https://www.cbinsights.com/research/what-is-crispr/ Thanks. Its tough, and really nobody knows for certain with anything in these fields, but its also something very unique and for me at least, a worthwhile speculative allocation. There are winner take all elements to this and of the three public options, I've only really been able to determine a couple things for sure. CRSP will be first to market, EDIT has the strongest and most diverse patent portfolio and will be second to market, and NTLA is basically behind everyone in both cases.

More CLF, CRSP, EDIT, AAL, started MPC, bid in for CTO

CLF calls

Part of the key to the first part is who you do business with. Most people have no shot to get the IPOs you want. This is why taking the placement and selling at the open works. Typically the stuff you do have access to, speaking in terms of the normal retail investor, is the crap passed over by all the bigger boys, and stuff you dont want to touch. This strategy, unless you have an in, will purely come down to judgment calls.

You sound like a Jehovah's Witness spreading the Value Investing word, with the caps and all. Such dogmatic thinking won't do you any good. I'd advise you to get off your high horse. And if you don't approve making money one way or another, how about you leave this thread alone instead of bitching about us being sinners? I enjoy making money very much and approve of it. Good luck with your strategy of getting long term wealthy, by speculatively participating in "hot ipos" at the top of a ten year bull market. What could possibly go wrong :) Buying the IPO and selling at the open? What could go wrong? Probably very little. I mean even if this goes down immediately, lets say 10%... if capital is properly allocated, is that really such a big deal? Thats probably the worst case scenario and highly unlikely. But the beauty of the market is that very soon we will see who is right and who is wrong, and if there really is so much to be scared of out there.

Some people look to find opportunities to make money in the markets. Others look to show off their "value investor" badge. I consider my strategy to have a value approach, but take the first 100 times out of 100. Finding "value" is just as much about identifying mispricings or instances where there is a mathematical edge, as it is about buying some shitty business below intrinsic value and then waiting 5 years for it to do something. I don't gamble. But I know someone who on occasion bets sports. They guy's logic is "this line makes zero sense"... and to my knowledge, the games he bets, which is probably just a handful a year, he nails. Not my cup of tea, but if one can make it work, that's great for them. To each their own. Same as merger plays. If you run it 100 times, and you come out net positive, you may be on to something.. Re: IPO's Ive never seen or gotten notification at IB despite being signed up for a while. Would imagine if they do have availability it is for good reason, and not likely something worth getting into.

Good show. I liked it but yes, very dark and almost satirical. Was surprised to see Will Ferrell's team did this.

Little bit of CWH. Purely a bounce trade. The business can be fixed and there is definitely enough hedgefund bagholders in this that I would not at all be surprised to see someone file a 13D on Lemonis; if nothing else, but for the free publicity.

Good points. Just curious, "I am beginning to notice that a surprising number of high quality companies are trading at big discounts to NAV." Which high-quality ones are you referring to/interested in? Thank you. VNO depending on the cap used for office space is pretty wildly undervalued, HHC supposedly trades at a massive discount, Griffin Industrial trades well below, FRP Holdings probably $20 per share below, Consolidated Tomoka $30 per share, Washington Prime trades 10 football fields away from the asset value...Probably a few more but these conditions have me wondering if the market at then moment is just planning to perpetually discount these things, much like we've seen in other sectors like auto and airlines. Which means they may not be as attractive as I've previously thought.

Just thought I'd bring up, as it may be useful for bigger picture context, or maybe not... I occasionally spend time reading old write ups, older annual reports, or just tangential info relating to companies I follow; There was a time before this was spun out, where the HHC assets were largely considered the "bad" assets. Yes this was an odd time but the reasons I think they were viewed as such had to do with where the economy and RE markets were. Which if nothing else, highlights the various waves of market cycles and how far we've come. Maybe also where we are in the cycle. Who knows. I am noticing that RE is starting to get broad stroked "cheap" treatment. Just like how every auto trades at 5-6x, I am beginning to notice that a surprising number of high quality companies are trading at big discounts to NAV. Personally I prefer this not occur; as it could mean we are in for a longer dull period until the perception of what's causing this widespread sentiment changes. Much easier to change a few things with one company to get a better valuation than have to have an entire sector have something change.

Can't do that if you don't have any! ;) Going to school with Bill Ackman was his best call...

Awhile ago I recall him touting HHC as one of his "retirement" stocks. Can see why he isn't touting that anymore...

Tilson has effectively monetized the concept of "value investing". He has made a pretty penny selling it to others, despite not really having made much money using it. Ironic.

Dont know the new short thesis. Dont really think there is one outside of the new conditions persisting/worsening. I did find it interesting that for the first time in years, I did not see this at Costco anymore. At least not the one by me.

CLF Goncalves asked the operator if there was someone waiting in the question queue named Matthew Korn, "he calls himself an analyst and he works for Goldman Sachs." The operator replied that Matthew Korn was not waiting to ask a question, which prompted Goncalves to call out Korn. "If you're on the call it is still 10:42. Why don't you ask a freaking question? I'll be happy to answer." Once the Q&A portion concluded, Goncalves called out Korn once more, "Mathew Korn from Goldman Sachs, you can run but you can't hide. I will see you at the Goldman Sachs conference soon." Goncalves instructed Korn to "bring the guy from the commodities desk" with him. "It's going to be bad, but its going to be worse if you're by yourself," Goncalves concluded. This is just one. The guy is a bull in a China shop.

I will preface my statement with the disclaimer that I hate management teams that don't appreciate their own mortality. TPL is/was a monster, with or without them. So I've been massively turned off by the credit they want to give themselves for the performance. I also dont like the degree to which they move forward with hostility, towards the company's largest shareholder; all while they themselves own little stock. At the same time, to me it appears the dissident wants to orchestrate a conversion of sorts; again, I liked this how it was. Water rights? I've looked at quite a few companies in this space; and its just a very tough, capital intensive business. I dont like that they are now speculating on new land purchases. If it aint broke, dont fix it. TPL was a gem. It's literally gone full cycle. From off the radar under appreciated, to.. well, something those with and those without vested interested are fighting over... all trying to push something that I am not sure I agree with. Just my 2c. I'd love to offer upside/downside for you. But my thesis never really relied on that if that makes sense. This was just a great place to be, in a dynamic set of off the radar assets that had optionality. Now to me, the optionality is limited because of the risks that this gets fucked up. I think the easy money has been made and while I still appreciate what this is, I can't really say that what its become is what I appreciated it for.