Gregmal

All combined probably somewhere mid-high teens. Don't care enough to tally everything up, never really have. To me the idea of talking about your returns on the internet is useless. It's like talking about your dick size in high school. Everyone likes to, but it only matters once you take the leap and can prove it with action. Anyhow, I typically run very concentrated and MSG, HTL had solid years. Went into year, and exited year with FRP Holdings as top 5 position, but spent 80% of the year not in the top 5, which kind of highlights the type of year it was. Trading was were one needed to be this year to really get alpha. GM and CTO continue to be perpetual disappointments.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/28/el-erian-hold-the-fed-accountable-for-its-messaging-not-rate-hike.html This sums it up. I don't disagree with the hike, but the communication sucks and is tone deaf. Which IMO is Powell's way of trying to play politics and stick it to Trump....Which is more or less a "way to go asshole, stick it to Trump at the expense of the rest of the country"...

Hopefully not. Pushback and coherent critiques are the most useful posts on this board. I know there seems to be some kind of quasi-feud with some here vs other forums, but the main reason I find VIC much more productive is because people are dicks and cut your throat analysis/logic wise. Which for me at least, is the greatest gift because it challenges my thesis. Here, let's face it, a lot of people don't contribute shit, some basically just add meaningless tidbits of already out there analysis, and some indeed give pushback. I like the later. Look at the MDXG or FB threads...People take offense to pushback or differing opinions. They even get mad at disagreement. LOL ok, enjoy your thesis drift while I make money. Cheers...

Long time favorite MSG. Whether Silver Lake gets serious w/ Dolan or not, it won't matter. With split occurring and $1B cash heading to the entertainment company, this leaves the sports teams and other assets floating at about a $4B valuation. Which won't last long. $325(~7.5B total asset value) is probably my worst case y/e target.

I think Trump needs to own his mistakes. The Fed can own theirs, if it comes to that. Also, where the the conspiracy if a Fed chair elected by Trump raises the interest rates? He could have just kept Janet Yellen, if he likes the low interest rate policy? Anyways, I see this correction more like the one in 1987. back then, we had rising interest rates, a fairly strong economy, the Regan tax cuts buffing the economy and a considerable stock market rout they in the end meant very little for the real economy. Spot on. Trump hated Yellen and handpicked Powell. I really can't explain how he would make those decisions then, with the expectations that things would be any different than they are now.

LOL at the bold and x100. So true.

Yup, by the time everyone starts talking about it, it’s already too late.

Merry Christmas all! This is a great place with some great people. Enjoy the holidays folks.

This is getting insane. You'd think we are in the midst of some massive crisis. Or that every listed company in the US is cooking it's books... I know Tepper basically just declared the Fed Put dead, but all the writing on the wall, at least to me, seems to indicate that with a little more pain, a lot of folks are going to start looking to resurrect it.

As long as those tax rates stay in place, yes the increased value is "permanent." However, I'm talking about GDP growth. Cutting taxes gives a boost to GDP growth (not GDP level) that is transitory. Which I agree in macro terms is important, but when I look at specific portfolio companies, it really isn't. If I own FRP, and their income consists of lease revenue, interest income, and cash from the rock pits... let's say all of this stays the same, just to keep things simple. At 22% tax rate the company is now significantly more valuable, even with the same figures as last year, when paying 35%. You can look at different figures, but simplistically, you should be throwing a multiple onto that incremental income, and the value of the company should be higher. The markets right now in a lot of cases are saying the opposite. People have essentially fabricated the recession narrative out of nothing, and what I'm saying is that even if it were true(to the extent that is reasonable, ie not a crisis) it doesn't in many, many instances, with a lot of companies, support lower equity prices.

Agreed. Right now Mr. Market is very pessimistic. Why? Not really sure. The stock market's ability to predict the future is less than stellar. The bond market, with 10 year US yields at 2.79%, does not look overly fussed (and I think the bond market is a much better predictor than the stock market of what may be going on in the general economy). Perhaps the ending and reversing of QE is having a much, much bigger impact on financial assets (especially the stock market) than most understand or recognize. Perhaps the current sell off in stocks has little to do with trade wars or slowing economies. I actually think the biggest catalyst for the current sell off the fact that nobody really has a good explanation for it. Fear of the unknown and also don't underestimated the significance of the time of year. No not Christmas but month 3 of the quarter. I highly doubt this continues with S&P components popping earnings out every other day. It's just a weird convergence of events and news flow IMO. Nothing more.

I personally find this whole thing to be hilarious. It's gotten so out of hand, and it's turned a lot of otherwise sensible people into clueless idiots. The stories and headlines, the emotional crap, the complete reversals in sentiment. Oh goodness. It's like everyone sits around bitching about valuations and begging for a pullbacks and then they get the most no brainer one possible and they don't know what to do with themselves...and these are just the people who call themselves investors! -Nothing changes but a .25% rate hike. So what? -The economy is still strong, but indeed shows potential signs of slowing a bit, so what? -The Fed has ALREADY basically said they fucked up and will cater to the market, if you read between the lines. These guys were out giving interviews and trying to say the right things A DAY AFTER they raised rates and saw the reaction! -The market turns the screws on Trump, I guarantee you we get a China deal next year; he needs good news. -The biggest farce I see is people saying "one time boost from tax cuts". WTF do people come up with this stuff? The tax rates don't go back up next year! How in the world is it a "one time boost" when in perpetuity companies will be keeping 40% more of their profits? And oh yea, the "boost" we saw this year? Where, S&P has responded to this increase in corporate profitability by posting -10%! -I've spoken to probably a half dozen CEO's and CFO's over the past two weeks, and maybe it's just particular to the companies Im invested in, but NONE have seen any reason to be have a different outlook or expectation that you had 6 months ago. Overall I think we just had a convergence of kind of one off events that tripped people out and caused contagious panic. First real year of widespread tax loss selling, no Santa rally on WS, massive fund liquidations and wind downs, minor softness in numbers plus super duper scary headlines and fear mongering. Fear that the Fed is going to crush the economy. People are just running with the crowds right now and have convinced themselves of something that doesn't exist. A stupid but true reality is once people started seeing turbulence, many likely just dumped shit and figured they'll pick back up after the holidays-on the institutional side there is definitely a lot of this type of stuff. I will be buying next week because I believe once the big boys get back from holiday in January things should get back on track. This downturn if anything has just given well run companies the opportunity to suck up A TON of their own shares and spring load next years numbers. Which in any case shouldn't be bad, especially at these new valuations. For example. I will be adding to MSG. If you can get to $5B on the Knicks, and add back the cash, you currently have a NEGATIVE EV! And then still have billions in other assets. There's plenty of others like this now. How does any of the shit all the pundits are "concerned" about all of a sudden effect my investments? It doesn't.... As such, I'm a buyer all the way down, screw the naysayers. There were people calling another 20% downside in the S&P when it hit 675 during the crisis. We are no where near a crisis, despite all the crazy things people are now saying that seem to be 100% reactionary to the market decline, and 0% based in what's really going on in the US.

Regular people are always retardedly reactionary. They don't care about privacy when it's convenient. Three years later when it becomes a hot topic, they are outraged. Not good for FB. Disclosure: I own Tencent and GOOG.

I wouldn't be surprised. Powell is a complete hack though. I rarely agree with Jim Cramer but he nailed this whole thing. It's one thing to hike as expected. It's another to come in completely tone deaf, after talking about being data dependent, and then push some aggressive rate hike agenda that is totally data independent. What an idiot. Kevin O'Leary gave a good sound bite on this too.

I think Dalal and Viking are spot on. I'd add that it's amusing watch this whole shit show play out. The really, really, really, smart money sat on the sidelines bitching about the Fed forever. Then, they eventually capitulate, and now they whine that there is no more easy money left... Poor really, really, really smart guys. The economy is fine. Not robust but not terrible. Stocks, if you know what you're looking for, are very cheap and have favorable conditions and a significantly lower tax rate. That's not to say the nerds with the computer programs and algos won't cause havoc from time to time, or the really smart guys throw taper tantrums like today, but the sensible investor should do well going forward.

Zuck and Co sold their souls to Wall Street following the IPO disaster just like Pearson did at VRX. They knew what the money machine wanted and it wasn't necessarily illegal(same as jacking up drug prices) but is highly unethical and now this sort of behavior is frowned upon and as such, FB will continue to sit in the penalty box.

I personally value the Garden at cost of renovations, so more or less $1B. You also have the air rights, and a nice little collection of other venues. I like the spin coming up H1 of next year because it should highlight this.

https://nypost.com/2018/12/17/how-much-itd-take-for-james-dolan-to-think-about-selling-knicks/

I find it utterly hilarious how this whole "the market is expensive" rhetoric is basically an advertising product/built in excuse for poorly performing money managers. The same managers who tell you not to pay attention to the indexes anyway... Ironic.

I don't disagree with the bold. The thing for me at least, is I already own a bunch of these "won't lose money" positions. The things is, eventually they need to make money. At the stage of the game KEWL is at(and same can be said for JOE and the like) the only way to make money is through aggressive share repurchases. This takes advantage of the discount arb. Then "down the line" when valuations are more favorable, you've already spring loaded your returns by wiping out large portions of the shares. Companies trading at these supposed valuations have no business paying dividends. So essentially, summarizing the above, in order to make money here, you need to have stellar yet unconventional capital allocation take place to really make it worth your while. So in other words, you're making a bet on Cornwall Capital(or whoever makes the decisions).

First, we've seen a ton of the land type companies come down a lot lately. In another thread pupil mentioned JOE trading at it's lowest levels in decades. From what I see out there, raw land is quite popular. Big land holding companies, right now, not so such. The second thing, and most significant to KEWL IMO is the strategic review. A large piece of the mystique around companies like this, or SHLD, or TPL, or JOE, is the simplistic, but nonetheless sexy exercise of day dreaming about "all the hidden assets/OMG a gazillion acres x a bazillion dollar per acre" bull cases. If you've followed these long enough you know they rarely happen that way, but that mystique does somewhat find it's way into the share price. The second you run a credible strategic review, and find out a real number, the bubble bursts and all that mystic goes away(Where KEWL is at now). From there, the company either stays stuck in the mud, or needs to reinvent itself and find a way to get a different valuation.

Haven't people been saying this since basically 2011? Why this time? The recovery has been extremely slow and shallow, unlike traditional recoveries, and we've had a bunch of corrections and sector bear markets since (I was just noticing today that the DJ Diversified Industrials is down over 33% from peak) and international markets are already in bear declines, yet everybody seems to talk like it's been only up and to the right since 2009 so we must be getting close to some big thing... You could be right, but it seems hard to time the market like that. I'd rather own good companies that can benefit from dislocation and let them cleverly deploy capital if things go south, and otherwise keep creating value if they don't. But that's just what I'm comfortable with. Liberty, buying great companies when they are on sale and holding them for the long term is a proven winning strategy. I applaud those who are able to execute that strategy. I have, for the most part, been able to ignore ‘macro’ for the past 5 years and it has worked out very well. Having said that, i have been getting more cautious as the year has gone on. The biggest single reason is liquidity. Back when the Fed initiated QE it had a large positive impact on the stock market. Today we have the opposite going on; the Fed is trying to unwind QE. It makes sense to me that it will have a negative impact on the stock market. The Fed is also raising interest rates quite quickly and this is/will also negatively impact the stock market. If the Fed next week backs of future rate hikes and/or slows QE unwind i may become more constructive on stocks moving forward. However, if the Fed raises rates next week and sticks with 3 forecasted rate increases next year and sticks with QE unwind i think stocks will sell off more. In the last 5 years zero interest rates has resulted in pretty much everyone levering up. When the next global recession happens i think there is a good chance it will be as bad as 2008. Europe is a mess and they have no ammo to deal with a recession; their banks are also a mess so there is a very real possible trigger. Japan is also a mess. China is a wild card; they spent like drunken sailors back in 2008 and 2009 but i am not sure they can do the same thing again. Canada has a housing bubble waiting to pop. Of all the regions, i like the US the most but if Europe or Japan or China contract i think it will hit the US as well. There is much too much complacency right now. People have been conditioned by the past 8 years of slow but steady growth. But it has been juiced by an explosion in cheap debt. Now maybe the economies of the world can keep growing debt and continue the party. The only thing i am sure of is we will be getting a recession. When? No idea. All i know is when it hits i do not want to be fully invested in stocks (or bonds yielding +2%). Cash will be king. What will the trigger be (that will be ‘the cause’ of the next recession). No idea. But it will be pretty obvious after the fact. Buffett’s line about we will see who has been swimming naked once the the tide goes out. If i had to guess i would say debt will be the trigger. Here in Canada we have a housing bubble waiting to pop. In the US it sounds like corporate debt is a likely trigger. In Europe the banks are not in great shape (i.e. DB or Italian banks). These things tend to get started in one area and then they morph and get ugly. Viking I love your thought process and rationale and it resonates with me. I do have a few things hopefully you'd care to expand on. 1. Maybe the Canada housing bubble is obvious. I kind of agree. But isn't part of the bubble process widespread euphoria and enthusiasm? I've hardly seen that in the Canadian housing market, especially over the past 3 years. Almost everyone I know is negative there. 2. Why does the next recession need to be a replica if not worse of the GFC? There's plenty of reasons we could have a recession that pales in comparison to 2009. I think 2009 was a once in a lifetime series of events... I mean almost everyone was asleep at the wheel. Whereas the past decade there have been scores of people hoarding cash and waiting for the first 2% decline to scream about the next big one. Recency bias at it's best IMO

Haven't people been saying this since basically 2011? Why this time? The recovery has been extremely slow and shallow, unlike traditional recoveries, and we've had a bunch of corrections and sector bear markets since (I was just noticing today that the DJ Diversified Industrials is down over 33% from peak) and international markets are already in bear declines, yet everybody seems to talk like it's been only up and to the right since 2009 so we must be getting close to some big thing... You could be right, but it seems hard to time the market like that. I'd rather own good companies that can benefit from dislocation and let them cleverly deploy capital if things go south, and otherwise keep creating value if they don't. But that's just what I'm comfortable with. This is spot on. Not to say I didn't find Vikings thoughts to be compelling as well. But I'm in complete agreement that there's great companies everywhere and if you keep a few on the radar you're better suited just building into them. Find something in your wheelhouse and then just play it through the cycles.

Personally I've thought for a while that some things were frothy, and other, not. The froth has by and large been coming out of the market in phases, since about 2015. The big tech names are IMO the last leg of the correction back to more reasonable valuations. That said, this is just another example of why I think indexes are useless. I've heard a million times from people "how could stocks be cheap, SPY is flat for the year", which is a great summation of index mania and the laziness exhibited by most investors when it comes to individual stocks. It is my believe that we are in the beginning stages of a period where fundamental value investors will clean house.

Rumor comes out, blue chip stock loses 10%. Company says rumor is fabricated. Stock still down 10%. Welcome to the current stock market.