Gregmal
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Everything posted by Gregmal
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https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17385447-markel-issues-statement-markel-catco It's amazing how many people piss away great jobs or just generally speaking make irrational decisions because they can't keep their genitals covered. Bezos dumping his wife and half the Amazon empire for a grade A Hollywood skank is the big story right now, but stuff like this happens all the time and it's mind boggling. That said the supply of young to middle aged single women in Bermuda is rather limited...
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Unless we're all going to present audited trading reports, then boasting of returns is useless. Comments can be verified though. So yea...
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+1. It’s also probably not a bad time to put (back) on some macro hedges (SPX puts and the like) if you’re so inclined. But generally speaking, the US is set up in a way that ensures that almost all bad macro events end up being temporary, so if you’re invested in high quality companies and your investment horizon is long enough it’s probably perfectly fine to ignore them. Even if the trade negotiations with China go wrong and end up causing a huge recession, no big deal, it just means Trump will lost the election in 2020 and the tariffs will be taken down by his successor. Agree with everything including the bold. Also like Spekulatius said above with GS. For a split second, you had things that were absurdly cheap. That typically corrects quickly. When it does, you rebalance. You basically got 10-20% moves in anything you could throw a dart at. The next 10% I don't think will be that quick or easy. But it will come.
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"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." -Wayne Gretzky
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Same thing as before... When stocks are cheap, ignore the noise.
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I think it all just comes back to focusing on quality stuff. Spekulatius if I remember, was positive on FDX. I don't own it but had the same views. Not too long ago its trading at what? 14x? Nothing really changes, sentiment shifts, fed hikes 25bp. Uhm, now its a 9x??? Sign me up! Either I get it at a depressed multiple and keep buying more. Or, something statistically extraordinary has to happen, IE earnings need to contract like 35%, to justify the current price... These sort of things to me should be common sense for people buying individual names. Myself, I'm not even a huge BRK fanboy, but banks fell like 30%+(BRK is a very safe way to play high quality financials), BRK is a smart capital allocator, insider buying below $200 plus BRK buyback, low PE/P/B in historical context. Do I need to know anything else to pull the trigger at $195???
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IDK, I say it with the same common sense conviction I had a month ago; the sky doesn't fall for no reason. So when something like that looks like its occurring you just go to the information available and in that case nothing changed. Easy as that.
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I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued. An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.
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Well, to provide you with some modest pushback, very few of the things you listed, actually have anything to do with value investing specifically. They could apply to any strategy and deal more or less with your own temperament when it comes to handling draw-downs. Investing isnt life though, so if it takes up an excessively large portion of your mental space, and you are not comfortable with this, then I applaud you deciding to cut ties.
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I really like this the more I look into it. No position yet, what I need to get a better grasp on is the stickiness of their market position. Otherwise this kind of seems like its potentially a mini IAC type of company in China... Its hard to argue against the cash and equivalents aspect of the SOTP. The question really comes down to what is the catalyst? I don't see one short term.
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I love India, and there is so much money to be made investing there. That said, I have not yet found an efficient way to capitalize on this. I'll be eagerly listening to those with ideas.
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Are normal 60 year olds worth billions, directly or indirectly? Even if so, does someone representing a hair over 7%(1/14) of potential votes really impact things that much? Like I said, you guys either wrote off something you should've cared about because of your own biases, or, are now giving it more weight than it deserves because of your own biases... Carry one now.
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Don't be insulting. You do not know the politics of the people in this thread. Some of them may be conservatives, some of them might not be. This, however, is hardly an issue of one view point vs another on a particular issue. The extremes of both ends of the political spectrum seem to attract wingnuts in spectacular numbers. If Howie had just thrown a few bucks at this like a normal 60 year-old rich guy, this wouldn't even raise an eyebrow. However, Howie's activist behaviour calls into question whether he might be among the extreme, which leads a pragmatic BRK shareholder to question whether he is one of the tin-foil hat whack-jobs or whether he's a normal rich guy with a really weird hobby. So, which is it? Frankly, I don't give a damn about his politics or whether he's a racist; life's far too short to fuss about others' political views or to fuss about whether others are racist. I just have concerns about whether he's a whack-job, particularly given his annointed role of protecting BRK's special culture after WEB and Charlie kick the bucket. SJ Sorry but if Howies political leanings are this much of a shock to you, you failed in your due diligence. It’s much more likely that you disagree politically, but need an outlet more mainstream than pretending to be a hack like EliG. Howard was never qualified, but personally I think it’s ok because Warren built the company and deserves some semblance of a legacy protector. It blows my mind that clowns who shun other investments because of dual class shares or majority board positions whine now about WB having ONE nepotistic director. LOL, shut up. You don't get it. You cannot seem to see past basic political tribalism. My side is good the other side is bad, always and everywhere, end of story. I wish you the best of luck on making a few bucks. cheers SJ Uhm, yea, I don't get it.... You guys forever have been smitten by Warren and the BRK "culture". Howie has never been deserving of his board seat; ANYWHERE. Regardless of where he leans politically. Now, it comes out he has some far right leaning hobbies and its "Oh, I need to evaluate. Oh, we need answers!!!!" And to me, it's like. "Oh the COBF crowd missed the forest for the trees again. Go figure..."
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Don't be insulting. You do not know the politics of the people in this thread. Some of them may be conservatives, some of them might not be. This, however, is hardly an issue of one view point vs another on a particular issue. The extremes of both ends of the political spectrum seem to attract wingnuts in spectacular numbers. If Howie had just thrown a few bucks at this like a normal 60 year-old rich guy, this wouldn't even raise an eyebrow. However, Howie's activist behaviour calls into question whether he might be among the extreme, which leads a pragmatic BRK shareholder to question whether he is one of the tin-foil hat whack-jobs or whether he's a normal rich guy with a really weird hobby. So, which is it? Frankly, I don't give a damn about his politics or whether he's a racist; life's far too short to fuss about others' political views or to fuss about whether others are racist. I just have concerns about whether he's a whack-job, particularly given his annointed role of protecting BRK's special culture after WEB and Charlie kick the bucket. SJ Sorry but if Howies political leanings are this much of a shock to you, you failed in your due diligence. It’s much more likely that you disagree politically, but need an outlet more mainstream than pretending to be a hack like EliG. Howard was never qualified, but personally I think it’s ok because Warren built the company and deserves some semblance of a legacy protector. It blows my mind that clowns who shun other investments because of dual class shares or majority board positions whine now about WB having ONE nepotistic director. LOL, shut up.
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Warrens son has been associated with BRK forever. Warrens son supports protecting the borders. Liberals are outraged. Now there’s a problem at Berkshire. LOL.
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The Buffetts have always been very patriotic. Warren is always talking about how great America is. Only recently have liberal loonies tried to slant patriotism as something unsavory. It's disgusting.
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I don’t really see how this is anything more than a classic example of “rich guy with a weird hobby”....
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If I was lazy and didn't want to be thorough with my due diligence? Sure. But in that case I'd be better off buying an index fund. If I'm willing to do the work and do my own deep dive, it is entirely irrelevant.
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Welcome to COBF. This stuff happens all the time. It's head scratching. So many self proclaimed "investors" regularly get hung up on totally irrelevant details, fabricate issues, and almost always look for excuses to miss the forest for the trees.
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https://seekingalpha.com/news/3422387-gm-plus-6-percent-hiking-guidance $6B FCF... $7 EPS. Peak auto bro...
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This is simple. Excuse me for not using charts or presenting detailed analysis, but SD can effectively, and simply be summed at as this. SD for the better part of its existance, was a perpetual piece of shit and f***ed every shareholder that touched it. Now, it is simply a mediocre, melting ice cube that trades below its likely NAV. Thats not enough to get people interested. Especially after December's sell off.
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For me, this community is for two things, entertainment, and idea generation/buffering. So in regards to the later, my only concern is making MU-KNEE..... let the truth and the info available take me to where I need to be to make it. I open and welcome any and all ideas and info, it is on me to decipher it and either put it to use or discard it. Lets not worry about judging peoples character on an anonymous Internet forum/community. In a twisted sense, the most honest or transparent folks will be the ones getting assassinated while the opaque(not with standing John Hjorth who I am guessing really is John Hjorth) play judge and jury. Eric used his real name, google him, judge him, execute him. Anonymous poster never gets ridiculed.... If Eric likes pursuing teenagers, thats his prerogative. Doesn't mean he can't provide value to an investing community... Also doesn't mean he doesn't have a side to the story. Frankly I could care less.
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Are you a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. investor?
Gregmal replied to John Hjorth's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
After much thought, over quite a long time, I purchased a small position today. To me, the key man risks are outweighed by the sheer quantity of great businesses that run independently, and will IMO eventually be spun off. BRK trades at a discount to these, and IMO the current price, is kind of at the upper end of the "cheap" range. Not slam dunk, but with an IB account, only having to put up ~20% of capital in a margin account, it should either outperform the carry cost, or keep dropping, which will further skew my future expected returns and allow me to add into it with greater size. -
I don't know. I think you nailed it in the other thread. Sometimes, the pendulum just swings too far. Nothing concrete or scientific about it. Just supply and demand compressed over short periods of time, and noticeable to the keen observer. And in this instance, amplified by December's unusual events.
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Barclay's online savings account. Currently 2.2%