Gregmal

Sounds good.

Found this https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/at-orient-express-the-board-holds-all-the-cards/ Gives a good background. Orient Express was old name of company.

The company has a very unique little history. Long story short, the board members from it's original spin off about two decades ago held all the voting rights. They've faced legal battles and proxy fights galore. They even rejected a $60 a share bid IIRC, back in 2006 or so. All things considered, I have a hard time seeing this turn out as value destructive for LVMH.

I thought the same things when I heard the news. I've been an admirer of LVMH for a while, but don't own it. This is a beautiful move IMO with many potential synergies. Belmond IMO has historically been mismanaged, but LVMH here is picking up a bunch of trophy assets it can use to sell it's trophy products.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3417016-lvmh-buy-hotel-group-belmond-3_2b $25 a share

Out at 1.65. As they say here, Cheers!

BV generally is an accounting metric vs NAV is fair market value.

If you're into water rights, check out PCYO...

Anyone else own this? The announcement yesterday IMO is somewhat of a game changer and the start of what I expect to be a catalyst rich, 3 year stretch for Boustead. https://www.fool.sg/2018/12/11/boustead-projects-ltd-more-than-doubles-its-order-book-with-latest-contract-win/ 2018 was ho hum, but the shares trade at a 40%+ discount to NAV, maybe more. They are evaluating a potential REIT conversion for 2020, and are now getting traction in the right places as the RE market in Singapore has IMO evened out. Very high insider ownership, and from my understanding, they seem to exhibit an approach that places the interests of shareholders first. It's worth mentioning that this was more or less a spin off that got thrown out with the bath water. I don't own many non-US RE plays, but this one is unique. As usual, I am a bit lazy when it comes to littering my writeups with superfluous detail and financial metrics; I assume one reading this is privvy the same information I have, but there is enough out there that one interested can find it.

Silver Lake keeps buying, #metoo https://seekingalpha.com/filing/4263971

Basically this. All those turds who have been wrong for years, if not longer now get to gloat about being in the consensus but at the end of the day, you can't talk the economy into a recession, and barring one, there's a lot of companies out there that are very enticing right now. Sometimes the market goes stupid. Everyone thinks 2019 will be a lost year. If those predictions bear the same accuracy as one's we've heard from underperformers and analysts for the past decade, 2019 will turn out to be decent...Think with your brain, not your ears. I'd also add that the Wall St crowd's obsession with the boogey man called "recession" is kinda stupid as well. Maybe companies that are operating at record profitability this year, earn 5% less next year... SO WHAT? What does Wall St say? Give em a 7x multiple.... Sheer stupidity.

Just look at what Berkshire owns...

You don't get K-1s from REITs. The experience for a US investor owning REITs is like that of owning any other "normal" business. The REIT itself generlaly just doesn't pay taxes as long as it follows IRS rules. Hmm.... Thank you for letting me know. I wish other MLPs are like this, where dividends are not taxed twice, and no K-1 headaches to worry about! Do you know if REITs tend to go up in a bear market like Utilities? I noticed a lot of REITs, Utilities, Gold miners going up lately. It depends what type, and it is not always the case, but generally speaking, yes. REIT's that own, say, triple net properties with investment grade tenants are more or less bonds, and reacts in similar fashion during times of duress.

It might sound simple, but it's kind of a non factor for me. Here's why. There are plenty of examples I am sure we can all relate to, where we've observed a combination of: businesses we like with managements we dont produce surprising results that were good. Businesses we like, with management groups we like, produce bad results. So taking this into consideration, I am more inclined to base my confidence on the track record of the Bakers and their extreme consideration for creating per share value, rather than my confidence/understanding/2 cents on what they are doing to get there. That is not to say one should never care/question the above, but it isn't as though these guys are betting the ranch on anything crazy. They've shown me they are very serious about not making a bad decision with this capital, and as such, I think if they've identified something that they deem worthy, I say, go get em boys. There's plenty of businesses both public and private run by great, knowledgeable people, whom operate in businesses outside of my circle of competence, that I'd happily give some money to. Investing in great people is IMO equally as important as investing in a great business. It's important to let great minds just do their thing without interference or second guessing. I think this is one of Buffett's bigger themes too when you look at how he handles acquired companies.

Yes, just to touch on what others have said I'll clarify and add a few things. I don't think JOE is a GREAT investment right now, although I did just take a small position. I agree RIGHT NOW it'd need it to lose a few more dollars off the share price. Berkowitz and his fund may create pressure, but the same thing as Winters and CTO, I could care less about this because it's a short term technical issue that if nothing else, may create an even better entry for long term minded shareholders. Minto is a big name 55+ community developer and the Margaritaville concept has been a huge success so far. Getting things together, even if it is not off the ground yet, is a big deal. It will bring people to the area, and also give the area tons of publicity and free promotion. So, in summary, I still think this one is 3-5 years away. But if the price is good enough I'm fine starting to buy sooner and then just waiting it out.

I think another pretty neat way to look at this is as follows; Back a year ago or whatever, when we were pretty much sitting around these same levels... had everyone plugged the ~$360M warehouse sale figure into your NAV calcs, what would have been your thoughts? First thought would probably be, that's too optimistic.

Yea I don't mind what Bruce is doing here. It's hard to really put a ton of faith into a 10-15 year hold, but if it's possible to be super optimistic about something over that time frame, this is it. What Minto has done for Daytona is huge. I thought the panhandle was on the cusp before the crisis, and I kind of feel like it's getting back there now. But it needs time. Too many people have hyped themselves into these types of stories with the "I want to believe" crap. Florida is a contagion state as far as development goes. JOE's land is probably the last area of decent quality, vastly undeveloped RE. If you build it, they will come. In the meantime, simplifying the company and buying back a ton of stock is a great way to springload this. It's what I wish CTO would have done, but unfortunately those guys don't have a clue or a care when it comes to things like that. If somehow you could merge FRP, CTO, and JOE, I would love that company.

Gregmal - have Bruce/Fairholme been buying? Thank you. By my estimates, he's taken out something like 10% of the shares outstanding YTD. By the start of 2020 I don't think it is unreasonable for there to be about 50M shares outstanding, should the price stay within 10-15% of here.

It's surprising to me how many miss the mark with all of this, but there is a simple, and easy explanation as to why no one can compete with Tesla when making an electric car. THERE'S NO REASON TO! So far, with decades of efforts, and some minor sorts of miracles for Tesla, NO ONE has demonstrated that you can consistently make money selling electric cars! So if you are Ford, or GM, or BMW, why the heck would you put serious effort into this venture, when you can simply do what you do best and stuff more money into your pockets than you know what to do with? Dalal is right that all the efforts so far have been half assed metoo projects. Part of the reason I detest the big corporate culture that mandates making it look like you are trying when everyone knows you aren't. It's the same reason Altria just incinerated $2B on Cronos. Shareholders of these companies pay a big price for the illusion of effort. But make no mistake, once someone lays out the road map, and demonstrates how to make serious money on EV's, that's where all the effort will go, and the products available will get significantly better. Until then, everyone is basically just letting Tesla do it's thing. As a result, Tesla has a super premium brand, and is by default, where EVERYONE who wants an EV goes. And yet, despite this, Tesla has been able to string together what? a couple of quarters in its history where at best, there are still accounting related questions as to it's profitability. While at the same time all the others with failure EV products make billions? No duh they don't have viable competitors yet, there is no reason. Tesla's only hope is that when and if making EV is massively profitable, they can maintain the headstart they've been given.

Perhaps it's just my preference but I think given the dominant position of their social media platforms, there is a huge runway for them to plug in small investments and create value through their ecosystem. People pay a premium for FB adds because of their reach. Tencent can do the same, while integrating their own investment portfolio products and services. Maybe an ultra bullish dream but picture Facebook's platform integrated with an Amazon like product range, in house.

Not sure if anyone still follows this but I finally took a starter position here. I still think it needs to shed another $2 or so to fully compensate one for the risk investing in this "swamp", but with Minto happening, and the rest of Florida again rocking, I think 3-5 years from now this has the potential to be a really exciting situation. At the current price, as long as Bruce keeps eating into the share count, I think it's worth waiting around for either a quick snap back to $16 or less optimally, Florida to get back to full bobble mode.

https://nypost.com/2018/12/07/chinese-company-offers-5-2b-for-louisville-slugger-owner/ Hardly a needle mover, but I love the breadth of their investments. They are literally in everything.

Yea the bulk of those definitely pre-date my obsession with investing.

Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. It seems AAPL got a whole lot more popular(especially around here) once Warren capitulated and bought in big. You'd think there wasn't even a bear case anymore the past year, which is odd because there was the entire way up when Icahn owned it. Just my lazy guess, but Buffett's buying spree probably put $50 a share on this that wouldn't have been there otherwise... There were people here joyfully buying AAPL way before Buffett got into it. I foolishly wasn't one of them. But in the past even if I wasn't a believer in Apple, I came close to buying a few times just because it was so damn cheap. Of course a stamp from Buffett would move the thesis. Berkshire has never made a mistake with this much capital. I'd venture out to say and Buffett will agree that the Buffett buying spree happened because that extra $50 or more per share should have been there. Wasn't referring to anyone specific in the above. Just an observation. The growth slowdown is obviously nothing new. It just seemed that this worry became less relevant in the past year, coinciding with Buffett buying and the stock going on a tear. I'm a younger dude, but I've never seen Warren fly into a position like he did with this one. I find it interesting to observe from afar.

Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. It seems AAPL got a whole lot more popular(especially around here) once Warren capitulated and bought in big. You'd think there wasn't even a bear case anymore the past year, which is odd because there was the entire way up when Icahn owned it. Just my lazy guess, but Buffett's buying spree probably put $50 a share on this that wouldn't have been there otherwise...