Gregmal

This has gotten very interesting again. Different situation than before but now you more or less have what I consider a partial SPAC, with "other" assets that I think are unique, well managed, and poised to do well in any type of economic scenario. I believe they've already said if they can't find anything to buy they will just do a special dividend. I added more this morning. Back into top 5 for FRP!

Cronos is a total POS. But it's one of the big names and the cost is obviously much lower than CGC or TLRY. These desperation moves are so obvious. I don't know how you get a GROUP of high paid executives together and come to a consensus that THIS is a good use of corporate resources. At least when PEP bought SODA or KO bought GMCR they pretended to have a plan... What's funny is that when it fails, rather than curb it, they'll buy it out completely just to bury it privately...

Except for the stock rocketing 60% higher two days after the post. Again, it would appear to me, on this board, nailing it is buying some value investor consensus stock and riding it into oblivion as you all feed into each other’s biases...like there is shame in making money on a trade... to rich. Again, not on a value board? Go talk Tesla or FNMA.

I will say: "Wow!" This episode reminds me of when we watch the TV show that displays home-made videos and that ends up showing the "best of" consisting of a series of "fails" and a conclusion with a "success". With that last "success", one never knows if this was the only take and some ability is often involved but I always say Wow! (with mixed feelings). But it's good entertainment. I didn't see your post but will comment and then I'm done on this name. The comment is somewhat tongue in cheek but if it brings you entertainment, great. I can't imagine that's not at least partially why we're all here. On MDXG. The first idea was something I found interesting enough to decide it worth designating capital to within the parameters of what I allow myself to speculate with. The second time things came around the specific stock was the same, the setup quite different, the information available- slightly different, and the capital available, larger... As such, I looked at the idea and felt after the market adjusts to the new information, that I still think there is a worthwhile place for me to take what is IMO a well adjusted roll of the dice. There is a pretty good chance technically that 1-1.3 was part of the deadcat bounce and this is under $1 shortly. I FULLY EXPECT TO LOSE MY ENTIRE INVESTMENT AND SO SHOULD ANYONE ENTERING THIS TRADE. Consensus everywhere is that this is a 0 because it is a fraud. (IMO fraud does not necessarily mean zero, but w/e) I am ok with the risk here, and at the least thought worthwhile discussion could potentially emerge as it does elsewhere around ideas, but apparently not. I mean seriously, WTF is with the whiny and hostile attitude alwaysdrawing? I didn't see you losing your shit on all those "chumps" pumping FNMA even though it's clearly worthless... I've been amazed frankly, at how many super sensitive p**** exist out there. Everyone gets offended by everything. Especially when it comes to politics and investments ideas, everyone gets so butthurt that someone else might have a different opinion. What's that famous Berkowitz saying? To most here, you'd think it was "Follow the crowds"...

Daytrading fraudulent pink sheets stocks is not the way I would try to compound wealth. The stock popped and you were "right" but it's down a lot since then, and will continue to go lower. Good luck on your trade. I don't disagree. Trading has just as much to do with sentiment and probability as it does with the actually vehicle. See SharperDinegaan's BTC trading last year. You can flip a bag of shit if the entry is right and you have your target in site. I won't lie though, my core positions are concentrated, and boring... so there a little bit of an entertainment value here for me too. I'm aware of all the traditional value investor no-no's I'm doing, but its my money, it's an irrelevant amount, and to be fair, the way a lot of great investors have spent trying to compound wealth, ie sitting on huge piles of cash for the past decade, hasn't exactly been a winning strategy either. Trade how you feel, but pumping a fraudulent penny stock by posting to a value investing forum (or any forum) is not within the spirit of this board (in my opinion). I only contributed to this thread at all because I think it's important that people know that there are serious issues going on with this security--financials need to be restated back to 2012, CEO/CFO/C-Suite execs fired for fraud, Auditor resigned with no new auditor named (and no disclosure yet of any disagreements with management), layoffs, liquidity issues, no current disclosure of cash or share count, allegations of channel stuffing, de-listing without disclosure of the reason, etc. This name is simply un-investable as a long idea. If I were an admin, I would lock this thread. This is simply not a viable investment idea for people who were not previously involved in this name. Well, I’m not quite sure where the animosity is coming from but a couple things. I’ve been completely transparent about what is essentially just my opinion. Pumping? Lol come on man, that’s ridiculous. Second, this is something you state matter of factly, is fraudulent. Whereas I’ve straightout said, I don’t know. But this is also a value idea on a couple other higher end places, including VIC. So, my apologies to anyone I’ve offended. To think I need to apologize for discussing what is at the least, an interesting situation, is absurd. The community imo is useful for two things, idea generation, and entertainment. And yet it’s anazing to see how many people get their panties twisted because they see a political opinion they disagree with or an investments discussion that no one forces them to read. Perhaps I’m better off wallowing underwater on shit like JD, FNMA, FFH and SHLD because it’s what everyone else is doing...

Daytrading fraudulent pink sheets stocks is not the way I would try to compound wealth. The stock popped and you were "right" but it's down a lot since then, and will continue to go lower. Good luck on your trade. I don't disagree. Trading has just as much to do with sentiment and probability as it does with the actually vehicle. See SharperDinegaan's BTC trading last year. You can flip a bag of shit if the entry is right and you have your target in site. I won't lie though, my core positions are concentrated, and boring... so there a little bit of an entertainment value here for me too. I'm aware of all the traditional value investor no-no's I'm doing, but its my money, it's an irrelevant amount, and to be fair, the way a lot of great investors have spent trying to compound wealth, ie sitting on huge piles of cash for the past decade, hasn't exactly been a winning strategy either.

cc: Bagholder Quotes Well, I nailed it once, so I'm probably a little more eager to try it again. Oh well.

Well, I like to live dangerously so I got in here again at 1.25 with a very, very tiny position. For records sake, I do not think this situation at all resembles the one I started the thread with. Yesterday's announcement is single and specific, rather than the multi-pronged clusterfuck that happened in early November. So from here I expect it to just kind of float. No massive snap back. But I do think this has to be the last shoe to drop before we get finality. The audit will take time, but EY was only doing 17+18. They'll need to be replaced although there is definitely a good chance they don't even end up releasing anything. All in all, the audit IMO is make or break and will probably cost 10-20M. I expect a good chunk to be off-set by FCF but essentially, I think the big risk is the shareholder lawsuits. Those I can't see being resolved until both the audits and the criminal investigations take place. I don't think the gov puts this company away, and if the restated financials are not atrocious, this thing flies and I would assume the capital markets open up as an option to fund any future payouts. Whereas, any positives, even finding a new CEO or at this point even a little short covering I think get you a good hop. At the same time there are plenty of high quality companies available, at very cheap prices, so I kind of ask myself WTF I'm doing here with this. But it's only 15 basis points so let's roll the dice.

Maybe not what you're looking for, but most(here, not generally speaking) can probably get a no interest for 12-18 month credit card with a 25-50K limit. Send 25K to a related Paypal account as payment for services. This works around the cash advance fee. You pay about 3% to paypal. Send the proceeds to a bank account. Wire to brokerage account. You can then also margin this money further if desired. After 12-18 months worst case do a balance transfer to another 0 interest promo card. I'm not advocating this either, but if you are looking to leverage your investments with borrowed money...

He just can't let go.... https://seekingalpha.com/news/3414932-lampert-takes-final-stab-sears

These are still pretty much all grossly overvalued. That's not to say there isn't a risk fledgling tobacco and alcohol companies don't incinerate a few billion dollars here or there to try to create the appearance they are innovating...

To me at least, it just seemed that at that given point, you had a pendulum swing that more or less stuffed so much negative into such a short time frame, that simply no news would swing things back to the middle. These events, all occurring in rapid succession, plus what to me seems to be at least to the plausibility that the business could be real, made this kind of an easy opportunity. With a 2 day bounce of around 60% that proved to be the case. So definitely more lucky than good, but finding setups like this, where there are multiple ways to win, is something that I have found sensible and profitable. A few years back Deutsche got walloped and there was a big overreact, just waiting for the pendulum to swing back again worked out. This one is stickier but if you manage your allocations there is nothing wrong with speculating. Worst case is always zero. No big deal.

https://nypost.com/2018/12/04/the-sleazy-truth-behind-maxims-1-a-vote-model-contest/

I agree. The market has gotten filled with stupid participants. By stupid I mean day traders, high frequency, algo's, etf's, etc. Participants void of a fundamental perspective and as such there is a lot of value available. All bodes well for the patient investor with the ability to hold for more than a few weeks/months.

Glad to see this worked out for those that stayed with this.

Good stuff. I've been also looking at the branch off's, such as what's been in the news lately with gene editing and as a result, companies like CRSP, EDIT, PTLA. I am not invested in any of those but want to kind of better grasp this space and opportunity. As Mark Cuban once said on Shark Tank to justify a rather unorthodox investment he made, "there's not too many opportunities that walk through those doors where I can make a billion dollars. This is one"... I think the same kind of rationale applies to the above. While unlikely, the potential is truly massive.

Why would one quarter of data suggest a thesis is broken? Can you point to something more enduring (and concerning) suggesting the company's competitive position is actually eroding? It’s not one quarter, it’s a string of quarters. There is no evidence that the often cited “flywheel” is actually happening. A stable gross margins is bad news, because the gross margin should have increased with the changes in merchandise and increasing service revenue, but it doesn’t. The gap to Alibaba is widening, not getting smaller. The thesis IMO was flawed to begin with. This is a classic value investor investment. They want to own AMZN or BABA but are too cheap to pay up for quality so a second rate knock off version like JD with enough of an optically pleasing fundamental profile fits the bill. But at the end of the day it will always be priced at a discount to BABA and for good reason. Better off just paying for quality...

All I'd say is that you don't HAVE TO do anything. Don't let them boss you around. That's bullshit. If they are being difficult then you are wasting your time negotiating in good faith. I'll leave you an example. I've been invested in a company that has kind of had a history of shareholder neglect. Over the past several years, this company has been disingenuously egging on it's largest shareholder, largely because the shareholder feels they aren't doing their jobs. There have been multiple proxy fights, and a whole bunch of other nonsense. The entire time, management has been boasting about wanting to buy back the activist shareholder's position in the company. After several years of poor results, the shareholder finally said "ok, make me an offer". What did they do? They made a below market offer and then put out a presentation accusing the shareholder of being desperate and looking for greenmail...Typical scumbag move. So my advice to you; don't give them anything. Just ask them to make an offer, with the ability for you to turn it on them. Otherwise, just let them dig their own grave, and document everything through your lawyers.

I've seen Costco mentioned a few times and actually concur. I'm not positive about their wine, so I'll take others at their word here, but do know that Costco liquor is a sensational bargain. Their vodka is essentially Gray Goose for 1/3 the price, and I was shocked to find out that the Kirkland Scotch is Macallan 18 just private label. More or less Costco has a contract with Macallan where they buy the excess, and that is then sold as Kirkland 18. You can pay $160 for the Macallan, or $60 for Kirkland...

Thanks, is there a thread or write up on TDW that I can get up to speed? Anyway, TOO's market cap is almost at 1.1X EBITDA now. Companies do not trade at 1.1X EBITDA unless they are distressed or highly leveraged, neither of which is TOO's case (Well, their 5X leverage is not low by the absolute standard, but still reasonable by industry standard, a little bit high on the comfort zone of 4~5X). Is market worrying that they will have difficulty refinance their debt due in the next couple of years? I forget where so I'll have to look for it, but it's been covered a few places. I think Third Ave had written about it in one of their letters as well.

Just my 2c First, in order to get a fair offer, reject the 30K. That's terrible. Then, have your attorney ask them to make another offer, but with one condition, which will almost always ensure you are getting a fair offer... The condition is, whatever their offer is, if you don't like it, you can turn around and buy them out at that price. Second, in relation to the business... Did the owner work there as well, or was this passive? If the business was passive prior, depending upon where your gf is in life, there may be an even bigger opportunity to acquire the business and then focus on running it full time, which could significantly cut salary and wage expenses, plus probably fine tune other expenses...The gross profit gives you quite a bit to work with.

I've got a flier on some longer dated calls here, but ATM I think TDW warrants are a significantly more compelling way to play the space.

I do agree, and that is why overall I am favorable to this move, but please, you can't tell me that this company is not now handcuffed, at least temporarily. Can you imagine the headlines if they raise the dividend or do a buyback?

While generally speaking, I applaud this move by Barra, once again you can't help but wonder why they are so tone deaf to things that do have an impact on their shareholders. Would these layoffs not have been better perceived if they were spread out? You had to have imagined Trump would now put GM in his cross hairs. Collateral damage will now also be that any future capital allocation move, such as a dividend increase or buyback will be a huge PR disaster... This is a classic Barra move. Short term stupid, long term, justifiable. Unfortunately the long term never really gets realized because of all the short term noise.

My go to's are: Gnarly Head- especially the 1924 red mixes, but all are pretty decent Hermann Wiemer Riesling Federalist Cab All are $20 or less per bottle As for investing, check out futures or pre-arrivals.