Gregmal

Been spending some time on this tonight as it seems others have as well. But I'm beginning to look at this really as a very interesting way to play the covid recovery/trends in a very diversified/risk semi-mitigated kind of way through a special situation type of scenario holding a lot of levered options. I know that statement is a clusterfuck of contradictions, but you've got some NY/SF, Miami which is hot, and then Boston which I dont really think has been effected the same way as others and has a very healthy and growing tech/life sci scene in addition to being another finance hub. Like others, even scrubbing this down to a ridiculous degree, you kind of get a $4-ish floor using some really draconian scenarios which maybe would have been valid on 10/30 along with the likes of ESRT/PGRE trading at 5 handles....but now? I took a bit off around 5.20 after getting in for a quick trade but after digging in a bit tonight I honestly think I'm leaning towards shifting gears and kicking this over to investment position rather than trading sardine and honestly I'm probably a buyer tomorrow if we get a sub 5 open. Like others mentioned, some aggravation in terms of digging in is it seems management put quite a bit of effort into the IR work for AIRC and didnt make even a half assed effort with this.

^^^I think theyre looking for Jill Biden....

What's the duration of the puts? March and a few in July. Ive still got some intention of building into more of the Julys. My general thesis is that the market is largely complacent right now for a variety of reasons and between a good number of events taking place over the next couple months and perhaps the covid boost here beginning to wane that a correction/maybe full blown bubble pop type of event is feasible with valuations on some of these things where they are. If something like this survives the next 6 months of "return to normal" then I wouldn't really want to be shorting it.

I agree for sure there is a huge TAM and many options to expand the brand. I have a few puts(instead of outright short) for this reason. Shorting something with that type of dynamic is much more dangerous than some one dimensional, commoditized crap like BYND or ZM. Where I think there is an unseen opportunity is using the frailty of the current physical gym market to potentially expand the brand via licensing/franchise partnerships and/or increasing the network effect. I can see quite a few gyms, especially smaller scale ones utilizing a "Peloton Partner" model to drive traffic and enthusiasm. In fact, you've already seen it with many of the Ironman, Crossfit, F45 type stuff popping up. My interest as a short play is really just a bubble burst/covid reverse hedge. If the music stops this is getting crushed. But there are definitely long term avenues which can be pursued beyond simply selling Nordic Tracks with iPads on them.

Added a small bit to DKS. Picked up AIV under $5 for a trade. Will probably sell it within 24 hours. EDIT: also shorted a small bit of CVNA

Must be the gift of capitalism...Those Tesla traders are so rich they've got spare money to give to us poor value guys...

Was anyone, including Pupil watching pre market? From some trade data I saw, looked like this was trading even higher than $12, like $14-$20 right out of the gate. Can anyone confirm? I do know, almost every time I can think of, on big corporate actions like this, shares typically start off trading higher than they finish trading, especially pre market. But perhaps thats just my individual observation. I hate these guys but decided to pick up a swing position at $4.95

As a wise, famous investor, guy they made a movie about once said...."The way I looked at it, their money was better off in my pocket. I knew how to spend it better."

Yea kind of the read through I got with the ESRT announcement. Granted here they stopped buybacks a while ago. But ESRT suspending dividend but announcing repurchase increase, when: Still had over $350M left on existing Repurchase pace had slowed to a grind recently(prior to vaccine announcement) Gross YTD buyback number was roughly the same since last announcement Due to repurchase variances there is likely no 105b but rather discretion...which means No more buybacks period starting Dec 15 until they next report- likely in February Div suspended Q1+Q2 Much caution still, despite the attempt to wrap a bow around the announcement presentation. Figured the same would be the case elsewhere such as with PGRE. Although it looks like the market is cool with it for now.

My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) I oppose the theft of the Net Worth Sweep AND I oppose the acts of a career criminal fascist. This is only hard to comprehend if you support the career criminal fascist. The question he asked is a simple yes or no....

https://twitter.com/HJudeBoudreaux/status/1338210121881694217/photo/1

Sorry to hear that. I guess I will rephrase the gist of my post and summarize by stating that often times folks dont really know the nuances and it is very much important to. A regular brokerage account is very different from a managed account and even with those there are very different levels of responsibility. In this case, I dont know what happened. I can only infer from the stuff Ive seen guys go through and experienced myself over the years. There s a big difference between somebody screwing a client and aggressively churning an account to generate fees(Ive seen that), and a guy simply getting one wrong in a big way. I mean Bill Ackmans blown up SPVs. So have many others. I'm fairly certain their intentions were in the right place and their investors knew the risks. The other side of risk management is that most people dont give you their full assets. So you can say "diversify"...but I know and have seen guys lose clients out of pure boredom because theyre trying to do the right thing. I remember personally seeing a client transfer out his account to a different firm one time. Guy had maybe a half mil in a brokerage account. Had a diversified mix of Google, Home Depot, etc. Basically S&P components, some cash too....Well his net worth was $5M+ and he was clearing $700k a year and a month later the broker who managed him reach out to follow up. His new guy sold everything to buy $750k of Exco Resources and $300K of Sandridge...So now his diversified $500k portfolio was margined 2:1 in 2 highly levered names; the same type of stuff Dennis was buying and I'm fairly certain it turned out the same way cuz this was probably sometime in 2014. The broker who did the right thing lost the client. The guy who had the sexy sales pitch and cool story stocks probably made $20K+ in fees and at the time the client was excited about it.....I have a few guys that I work with who are extremely high net worth that basically have punch card relationships with me. A couple times a year when I find something really interesting I give them a ring and if they like it they'll fund an account with a big chunk of money with the entirety of it being for one investment and thats how they want it. To an outsider, they'd see the entire account in one position and think WTF. Every client is different. Its definitely not a simple biz. IMO folks are really just better off indexing if they dont want to follow things closely and if they do want to be active, engage places like this where you can get the help and feedback for free or at minimal cost.

If true, this is more than just a trade going bad, it would be unresponsible gambling with other people’s money. https://frankowskifirm.com/stockbroker-dennis-phillip-ayre-named-as-respondent-in-1-4-million-arbitration-claim/ https://frankowskifirm.com/dennis-ayre-continues-to-rack-up-customer-complaints/ On the law firms, the second a FINRA complaint is filed, many of the ambulance chaser firms have automated programs that shoot out boilerplate press releases advising "anyone who worked with XXXXX XXXXXXX to contact us regarding your options".... On the first part, depending upon how the account was setup, its very possible to do the above without doing anything wrong. If he is not operating as a 65 but simply a 7/63, he has no fiduciary duty. All he has to do is make sure what he's recommending is suitable. And suitability is simply determined by what boxes are checked on account opening forms. The good old trick back in the day was to only deal with HNW investors who check "speculation" for objective and "max aggressive" for risk tolerance. You could literally put their entire investment in one name and then double it over on margin. Effectively 200% long in one stock. And its entirely kosher. For a stock broker, the UT claim is also probably one of the most common. Guy all of a sudden say "I never agreed to buy that". Always well after the trade has gone down....But you still have to ask, why if you didnt want it, did you wait until 2019/20 to file a complaint for a transaction that took place 5+ years ago? During which you've gotten 50+ monthly statements? The biggest complaint I see here that will stick is using the non-firm email to essentially guarantee clients against losses. Both are big No-Nos. Guys probably getting a lifetime ban.

I actually find this kind of sad. Picasso I know was viewed as a very high quality poster who was involved in a lot of GFC value stuff that ended up working out quite nicely. FELP, even from his initial writeup, was a 5 bagger or something. That said, I also know that sometimes when a manager writes up a name, his basis may actually be much higher; he may even have some ulterior motives... I have no knowledge of the guy personally, and will refrain from making judgments about character. But I do think its a worthwhile cautionary tale for anyone in the business. CYA. I think you can make inferences regarding his style....aggressive. But also, dudes been in the biz since mid 2000s and never had a complaint. Now gets a bunch of complaints. Centered around one name blowing up. During a major O&G bear market.....If I had to guess I know where I'd lean in terms of wagering on what really happened. The business has evolved in quite crazy ways. I actually know of a firm who went out of business because their client list got stolen. Ended up being bought by a scumbag law firm. The law firm then called all the clients and solicited them for complaints/arbitrations/lawsuits for any investment they lost money in. Shit like this is a big part of the reason why I didnt want to spend too much of my life dealing with this crap.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/14/nj-gym-that-defied-covid-19-lockdown-fined-more-than-1-2m/ $1.2M for trying to work and run a business. You know who didnt get fined $1.2M? People who stayed home and did nothing. In fact, they wrote most of those people checks. Welcome to America.

Got an ABNB tracker too. Also added to ARKG short. Beautiful fade action there. Had a field day with ALCO. Upped a 20 bps position up to about 3% on the opportunity with the peculiar volume.

Is that Picasso? Not totally familiar with the investment and those involved other than occasionally looking at the thread. But the Brokercheck I dont think always tells the full story. Yea Im saying that as someone in the biz. But I can also tell you how many times an investment goes sour and the client gets amnesia or starts the Monday morning QB routine. Almost always happens when there are big blow ups. The "industry", being "self regulating" requires the broker/advisor to report ANY complaints, even, as they detail in the training programs, something as simple as "I dont like the way you talk"...At quick glance, all of the complaints seem to stem from the same investment. Dude was probably running a concentrated book. And LOL @ Sears getting a shoutout too.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3644173-crispr-therapeutics-secures-grant-for-gene-therapies-for-hiv

Gotcha. Think that's probably the most reasonable and accurate interpretation. The timing is just coincidental. Perhaps they're just running through the entire playbook now that phase 1 of this "project" is largely behind them, and opening every possible door in terms of options for tapping capital.

With the benefit of hind site I take the buyback as largely "confidence inspiring" rather than a planned and intended course of action. They had a lot of time to implement it and this even before the covid crash and the numbers really weren't anything material, IMO. They hadn't been buying for a while now. I would prefer to issue shares vs expensive debt, but they just took down as much 12.5 coupon debt as they could. And in concert with this, stated one of the justifications was that it was non dilutive. They got an additional $30M I believe from warrant exercise. This in addition to supposedly producing robust FCF and having set in motion an integration strategy that should produce even more. So why the filing to basically run an ATM? My only guess is that should shares continue to rise they may look at start going that route. But if nothing else, the timing seems poor and contradicts a lot of what they've said and done the last couple quarters.

Added a few MX

Fair enough. Best of luck.

To expand, and maybe play a bit of devils advocate here, is there a counter argument to there beginning to be a very feint smell of BS/inconsistency here? I'm not at the "sell down dramatically" point yet, but it is rearing its head a little bit.

In terms of the investment, thats really all that matters. I haven't encountered anyone yet who is saying anything other than "this is a pretty special/unique brand"..

Trimmed a little more ESRT and a bit of AYR