Gregmal

If your thesis was that it wasnt a pandemic enhanced fad, well, there certainly hasn't been any sort of long term fundamental development that has either proven or disproven that at this point. Especially given that we are just beginning to enter the final phases of that event. The entire pandemic has spanned less than 3 quarters. But I do see how something fundamental like an index inclusion can change that... The pandemic enhanced order boost, as mentioned earlier in the thread, probably carries on for another 2 quarters worth of results due to order/delivery/fulfillment + holiday season lag. Got one of these things coming tomorrow for the wife. 5 week delivery window isn't all that bad all things considered. Execution has been solid so far.

Ayr Strategies Files Preliminary Base Shelf Prospectus Toronto, Ontario, December 14, 2020 – Ayr Strategies Inc. (CSE: AYR.A, OTCQX: AYRWF) (“Ayr” or the “Company”), a leading vertically integrated cannabis multi-state operator, is pleased to announce that it has filed a preliminary short form base shelf prospectus (the “Prospectus”) to provide the Company with the flexibility to take advantage of financing opportunities and favourable market conditions, if and when needed, during the 25-month period that the Prospectus, once made final, remains effective (the “Effective Period”). The Prospectus has been filed in each of the provinces and territories in Canada. The Prospectus, when final and effective, will enable the Company to offer, issue and sell, from time to time: subordinate voting shares; restricted voting shares; limited voting shares; warrants; subscription receipts; debt securities; convertible securities; units; or any combination of such securities (collectively, the “Securities”) for up to an aggregate offering price of C$500,000,000 (or its equivalent), in one or more transactions during the Effective Period. The Company may also use the Prospectus in connection with an “at-the-market distribution” in accordance with applicable securities laws, which would permit securities to be sold on behalf of the Company through the Canadian Securities Exchange (or other existing trading markets) as further described in the applicable prospectus supplement. To date, no agreement has been entered into with respect to such a distribution. The Company may use the net proceeds from the sale of Securities for general corporate purposes, capital projects, internal expansion, or for the acquisition of other businesses, assets or securities by the Company or one of its subsidiaries. Weren't they just "fully funded"? Why start considering share issuance now? Seems a little contradictory.

Indeed. Seems like a solid fundamental development. This company has definitely proven itself to have long term staying power over the past....month or two.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18121208-empire-state-realty-trust-announces-new-repurchase-authorization-and-continued-dividend Interesting, and frankly, a lot of different ways one can go with this depending upon how you read the tea leaves.

The courts are just icing on the cake in terms of a resounding conclusion. The real confidence killer was that we just had every ally we could have asked for with the current administration and after 4 years have absolutely zero to show for it other than wasted time and some pipe dream that it's going to get done in the next 40 days when reality is, they just had 4 years and dicked around with everything but the one thing we needed them to. I'm not selling, I feel I owe myself that much after not selling for the past 7/8 years outside of repositioning some common into preferreds, but I aint holding my breathe either. I haven't obsessed over the investment the way many have. Its always kind of been a "total write-off or huge homerun" investment in my book. I'm glad I didnt make it a huge position or spend time reading the tea leaves any time anyone even remotely associated with this did so much as fart...but you are right that the absolute corruption of the system really seems to work against this fundamentally. At the same time, selling here feels like leaving the movie with 15 minutes left.

Bout to get a special Covid Christmas edition of MeToo! https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/13/ex-cuomo-staffer-accuses-governor-of-sexually-harassing-her-for-years-he-denies-it.html Will we believe all women? I heard one of the allegations may have been that he tried performing cunnilingus without a mask on! The only thing that remains to be seen is whether the moral crusaders and voices of anti corruption who stand up to men who abuse their powers show up. The ones that made it their sworn duty to cry enough tears to drown Trump; will they show up for Cuomo?

oh god, maybe is time to sell.... The time to sell was in Nov 2016. This has been by far one of my worst investments/biggest wastes of time. I made the mistake of buying this in 2013/4 and adhering to the "real investors dont trade" narrative. That Mnuchin would take care of the hedge fund guys. I switched all common to preferreds a few years back. But the truth is that unless you're simply trading this like muscleman, its been a total dud. But whatever. Cant win em all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/tony-hsieh-mental-health-help-covid-pandemic-isolation.html But dont worry. "They" believe in science! It is funny but for all the whining about Trump, when its all said and done, when folks ask themselves what's more deadly than a once in a 100 year virus...the answer will clearly be...Liberals. They take your freedom. Your friends. Your family. Your business. Your restaurants. Your schools. And worst of all, your peace of mind....

This is a straight forward, asymmetric wager/investment. Nothing more, nothing less. I own some of the preferreds.

This does look interesting, however I'd need to take a more thorough glance(hopefully tomorrow) because you always need to with these type of things. But my quick 30 minutes of looking around today raised a couple questions perhaps you could address. 1) The crux of this is basically that its a Shopify x Yelp x Craigslist for pot companies, no? IE the online presence/all in one internet setup/connect buyer and seller? 2) Do we have any info on their actual customers at this point? 3) Is there moat within their IP or are they simply hoping first mover type of thing holds? I think its neat. Potentially even a great product offering in a fast growing niche. Bigger picture on pot though I do think eventually the state to state variance and regulatory issues coverage and dissipate as Federal restrictions wane. That is where AYR will make or break. Your head start is establishing brand power, customer relationships/loyalty and simply being recognizable on the largest scale possible. Once the things that make it very attractive right now, ie licensing restraints, state to state variances...once these go away, there is a potential for massive disruption and commoditization of the space. A big head start will be needed to hold advantages. For AYR for instance, wholesale advantage go away the second a dispensary can order a million pounds at $300 per pound from Mexico. That said, simply getting a license, opening a shop, growing the dope, harvesting it and wholesaling....thats a really easy business to clean up in right now. Thats why I liked/like AYR. You can see a clear path, growth drivers, and moats, very clearly. To me, at least without diving in significantly deeper, its much less clear here how the cash cow runs wild and unchallenged for a long time here. Although that is not to say it cant. I'm hardly a Saas/tech guru, but selling flower and selling software are very different propositions. Will follow up tomorrow with more thought but wanted to get something out there and maybe get the discussion flowing.

Come on Paul. I agree with you on this topic, sometimes. However I do think you get carried away at other times. You bash the heck out of everyone who underperforms, and then the few guys who outperform are "lucky"? Because he stopped? Or had a "few" years individually where he didnt beat the index? Come on! There's no winning I guess. Granted, I dont lose sleep feeling bad for guys who've made 7 and 8 figures trading paper, but still.

Greg: Re ARKG....the July 2021 puts offer 10/1 if ARKG retraces to March re-Covid levels ($34). I own some July 21 $65's. Pretty good risk / reward for some gambling money. Thanks for the heads up. Yea I planned to take a look at the options and some of the similar loony tune ETFs over the weekend. At quick glance the options did seem quite reasonably priced. I also was surprised to see near 0 borrow cost on ARKG, which, while exciting, is currently holding an extraordinary number of stocks that have done 100%+ in a couple of weeks. This is also smack in the middle of what is seasonally a very strong stretch for biotech. Nov-Jan typically. So theres many ways this can shed 15-50% over the next quarter or two, on scenarios ranging from just a simple correction, to a full blown bubble pop...or at least I think/hope.

I very badly want/wanted to grab some AH at 39 and maybe below, but I've been dabbling with MAA recently, and compared to AIV, MAA just looks so much sexier. FL, GA, TX, AZ NC, Nashville, etc...thats exactly where I want to be. Dont have the retards running the ship issue either. I wish Litt luck here. The more I looked at it, the more appalling their behavior became. But entrenched management and REITs is a dangerous game.

MSM has pulled the wool over the eyes of the naive liberal...but this highlights who and what the issue is....one man? Nope. hundreds and thousands of bureaucrats and academics. lazy, moving to the beat of their drum. feet dragging. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/11/white-house-threatens-to-fire-fda-chief-unless-covid-vaccine-oked-friday-report.html Thankfully theres a few more weeks of DJT. Joe would have been angry to get woken from his nap and then told one of his aids to tell another aid to schedule something for next week.

I criticize hypocrisy, but theres a fine fine and often a distinction. And I also continued to be amazed the number of people who seem to be oblivious to the fact that money managers run a business, and sell a product......if he could charge 5/50 and market himself as the wizard of oz, that would be within his rights. As with Prem, my tendency to be critical is simply due to blatant failures to adapt as an investor and the continued arrogance of doubling down on losing.

At Costco earlier, I saw an irresistible offer that as a value guy, I wanted to take advantage of. 2 AMC movie passes for $6! As much of a no brainer as this seemed, I took a second to think. I haven't been to the movies in half a decade, maybe somewhat longer. I 100% won't be going there for the next 12-18 months simply because nothing even halfway decent is going to be released. Even beyond that timeline, with kids, streaming, and all that...I still wasnt even confident the "never expires" offer would hold value for me if we're talking 2+ years out and the good chance that I'd just lose the ticket/pass like I do anything I put away for more than a month or two. So I passed. This coming from someone who looks incredibly fondly on the whole movie experience. From seeing Beauty and the Beast with my mother and siblings, to going with my father to an 8pm screening of Jurassic Park as a child...as a teenager, the movies were the best place to get a bj when the parents were occupying "my" house, to using the movies as a place to kill 2 hours with a date before dinner once I was off on my own....its always been fun and enjoyable. But reality is, this isn't like an amusement park. Where everything is there and once the gates open people come back. Its a multi layered scheme where if the studios dont see a slam dunk ROI, they aint spending $100M+. They dont spend money, people dont go. And all this is predicated on people even being allowed to go...something that still hasn't even been resolved. Even down the line, the only way I see myself, a young mid 30s father, going to the movies is to take my kids to something crazy, which would likely be at an IMAX. As an investment/business, I really dont see how a theatre is going to do anything but lose insane amounts of money for the next 24-36 months. Hope I'm wrong though. No position.

Bought a starter in AMT, rolled a few VIX calls, and shorted some ARKG.

Since liberals now consider Indians, Asians, and Florida Hispanics "white", I can definitively answer your question with a resounding, NO!

I don't know why we'd be comparing Walmart, a company/business to an asset class. I dont hear anyone talking about how Berkshire Hathaway is nice and shiny and can be tucked into their pocket and turned into jewelry, but I do for gold...LOL WTF

I'm hardly an expert here either but after watching for a while think this is in a decent quality company at reasonable valuation/GARP-y zone. Picked up a starter here this morning.

Funny seeing the GEOS filings today. At $8.28 you have the entrenched asshat who's overseen all the value destruction selling some shares, and at $8.4 you've got the newly brought in director buying shares....LOL

Yes, they'll have to bring in a new CEO, which means several months searching, a new(sorry no refunds from the last guy) compensation package loaded with more freebie shares, and worst part for shareholders, another 2-3 years of honeymoon where the CEO can rightfully or not, make excuses and talk about the bigger picture/long term without consequences.

As soon as spring arrives and along with it, the 20-something year old chicks in short skirts w/ their tits out....people will remember what made NYC great!

I try to be as transparent as possible but sometimes for liquidity purposes need to be a little bit discreet, especially with stuff with big spreads and limited liquidity like these. But generally speaking, I'm in the March-June timeframe and in various strikes from $125 down to $80, a few kamikazes below that but mainly 80-125. Ive also put on some minor exposure via a straight short of the common. Every day I wake up I become more and more convinced we are currently in the later stages of a bubble in several prominent market places, and it seems most people are in an Enya video. Perhaps I'm losing it though.

Starter in ALCO and MAA, shorted some ZM. Added to BYND puts.