Gregmal

Theres few moments in ones life where you get a chance to showcase your skillset as the world watches. These are the kind of things they make movies about. Weirdo with an arcane talent gets opportunity of a lifetime and not only is the girl of his dreams captivated by his talent, but the entire universe gets drawn in, and usually it ends with said person being a hero and getting the girl. These scientists just had that moment, and not only made total fools of themselves, but did a great disservice to the credibility of science in the eyes of every day people. What a disaster this whole thing was for them. Scientists are very much like analysts. An analyst is good for compiling data and doing research, but should not be trusted to make and form final conclusions and take action. Because any analyst who is any good at it, would be managing money and not writing book reports if that were actually true.

I actually noticed VSAT in the Baupost 13F the other day. Another turd for Seth. I remember thinking he was clever for having such a big position in the name in like 2013...at like $65 a share. Dont think he's ever sold any of it either.

Oh yea, there is definitely some truth to the above. People that are incredibly cheap are also typically very demanding and just a hassle to deal with. A friend of mine worked as a stockbroker right out of college for awhile, and told me one of the first things they are taught is that if a potential customer asks more questions about cost/commission/fees than the actual product, just tell him to go to Scwhab and move on. Not worth the headache. Much like the people who ask their waiter a million questions, end up ordering minimally, and then tip 15% on the pre tax amount, while asking for a to-go box for the leftovers...

Nothing to explain yourself about. One would assume your position is also much larger than when you initiated it/started the thread. If your highest basis lot is up 13% then you're sitting pretty cuz we just spent a whole lotta time well below that. The main takeaway I had from the offer is that it was made PRE VACCINE. That is a big deal. Which I think easily gets missed when you look at yesterdays share price and say "Oh they offered a 15% premium, whats the big deal". I wasnt playing for a couple dividends on my first ESRT lot. I was prepared for, but not counting on seeing $5.50...so all in all a 2.5% position at $8 turns into a 6-7% position over the ensuing month's decline and then rockets to ~10% position on the vaccine news...I'm happy to have so much stock to eventually unload. Very good problem to have. Its silly not to rebalance and play the volatility.

Yea I really want to get some of this and regret having passed on private shares a couple years ago. Hopefully $30B is near where its trades, but I'd probably wager opening trades are $50-60B valuation, maybe more.

I guess they didnt want the $10 per share COST special dividend....

shit, and here I thought all this stuff was dead or on its way to zero... In other news...

Back to lockdown losers! Except of course for Gavin and Nancy...Parties and hair salons are only essential businesses if you think you are better than everyone else....

Anecdotally, I do know a few folks who utilize these types of services. Its basically where the stupid homeowners meet the lazy contractors....I like the idea behind this and recently repurchased a little trading position around here($10). There's certainly potential here, but its not where you are going to find the cream of the crop so to speak...

Yea Ive been surprised to see the enthusiasm around this one. Its a pretty classic SPAC and what else I noticed that I dont like is yea, the acquisition and the multiple on that...but they also promotionally announced a buyback maybe a couple months ago...have from the quick glance I took this AM, didnt repurchase a share. In other words, they are exhibiting classic behavior of a typical post deal spac. I wouldn't hold my breath on them executing their way into turning 16x to 9...

That's surprising considering we are probably still in the early innings of the recovery for office REITs. Why now? Do you have higher margin than you like? No other income coming in? Lottaaaa margin on these. Leveraging underlevered public RE companies was something I thought compelling the past 6 months. Some of the stuff, like ESRT, MSGE/S, PCYO, JBGS, FRPH....you have literally zero risk of 0's or bankruptcies wiping you out because of the balance sheet strength. So I modeled out some extreme worst case scenarios and used that as the basis for my assumptions and then gradually bought the daylights out of them because at 1-2% margin rates it just kind of seemed stupid not to. But in some cases we're up like 40-50%+ in a week and change and I'd rather remain flexible and not ignore the possibility that we could retrace some of this. I'd rather add/subtract the noncore(maybe 20% or so) part of the position than be that guy who goes "Its worth $12 and I won't sell a single share for a penny less than that!"...The piece of ESRT I took off for instance, I added on Monday(of the announcement) at $6.40 and sold a few days later at $7.85...no need to be super greedy. Just greedy. With borrowed money its not yours to begin with so the gains are risk gravy.

I would think the AZN Oxford will be equally as potent. I remember readying earlier on, like in February/March, quite a few scientists who were confident and thought this would be easy. They were sure they already had the vaccine, the challenge, as it always is, with this stuff, is rolling out the trials because time is time and theres no way to speed it up.

I think the repricing lower is really just indicative of the fact that the public market comps dictate it. So essentially what you are describing, IMO, had already occurred everywhere but possibly with TCO because of the merger agreement. Overall, though, I think what you've seen play out everywhere else also plays out in the malls/shopping centers. First reaction is sell them all. Then you kind of get a broad scale rebound. But the real fundamental change over the longer haul is that the best companies/locations get stronger as the weaker fail. This has already played out within the pricing you see on a lot of the net lease retail assets. The narrative shouted from the roof tops is that of "Retail is dead". But top locations and good tenants have been trading hands at all time high valuations. 4 cap rates arent uncommon which is pretty astounding given the narrative. But run of the mill stuff is still also basically trading at pre covid. The garbage is priced as such. So buyer beware and an extended level of due diligence is obviously necessary, but as always good tenants/good location will be ok. SPG and BPY have tremendous leverage within their own universes....If you are Louis Vuitton or Hermes....I mean you have 1) long standing relationships with these landlords, and 2) a need to stay within a certain universe to protect your brand. As the premium retail space becomes more pronounced from run of the mill, I think if anything this increases demand and value of the network effect. With a 10 year treasury where it is, the spread is just way to large with many of these income producing assets. If they are insulated as many of them are, they will either give you back your cash quite quickly, or rerate accordingly. One of the most important takeaways from the past Q here, was that they signed over 600 leases representing 2M sq/ft...

Yup. Covid was an opportunity for some, and a distraction for others. But generally speaking, the entire RE universe was one of the fattest pitches down the middle Ive ever seen. I mean did people think we'd never get a vaccine? That peoples behaviors had been long term impacted when most folks have already returned to behaving as normal even during the height of the case number hysteria? Last Memorial Day and then July 4 was really the thesis clincher for me. Most people just didnt let the media narrative effect them. This was a huge positive read through for RE/travel/entertainment names and made the investment very binary. All you had to do was be willing to wait 12-18 months. The opportunity is not gone, but it won't last forever.

Strong armed almost $10 a share out of TCO. Deal getting done at $43.

Some funny tweets https://twitter.com/hkuppy/status/1326960220740972550/photo/1

I once heard a saying that you'll know its time to stop trading once you stop making money. The Pabrais, Chous, Eihnhorns, Watsas should have probably quit about a decade ago. Or at least went the way of David Winters. Have some decency and return outside money and then just do your own thing. Prem is a little different cuz he owns a real company, but for the others its pretty embarrassing at this point.

Trimmed a smidge of ESRT on the spike to $8. Fought every instinct to continue being a total pig but ultimately settled on taking a mid single digit % of the position off to pay down some margin and free up some funds. Also sold rest of FSR as well as a few of the warrants.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30308543/golden-state-warriors-submit-plan-home-game-testing-allow-50-percent-fan-capacity Pretty interesting. Lets see if the bureaucrats listen to the "science" or continue to find excuses for their power grab. Joe Lacob is infinitely more credible and qualified than any of them, and probably even moreso than the purely academic scientists like Fauci, who have never been forced to make a living in the real world.

I'm lazy so find your own official link, but they just pulled a $180M 10 yr I/O mortgage for 2.8% on one of the shitty B buildings...

Yea, my experience has taught me that while you can save some ammo for "timing", your better approach is simply to take a measured approach to purchasing in small increments over the window of time in which you expect things to take course. You can weight purchases within that window and also circle certain valuation levels where greater enthusiasm is warranted. But Ive rarely had luck trying to nail the exact turning point. In your head, pull up a theoretical 10 year chart and just try to make sure your purchases look good on that lol, if that makes sense. You'll drive yourself nuts worrying about the 3/6/12 month.

And before the whole "hospital capacity" thing comes up, China built a mega hospital in 8 days. The fools and politicians have had 6 months to make plans and prepare....but now they want their ineptitude to be everyone else's problem.

All I can say is that I hope people take measures to let politicians know how they feel. Folks have demonstrated that they are fine living with the virus. We dont need government and MSM drumming up stories and sensationalizing this thing for the sake of power grabs. I certainly hope that people hold these politicians accountable. It is nice when there are consequences. Cuomo for instance has spent months blaming Trump. When Trump is gone, what is he to do? Face the people hopefully.

Media is ecstatic. Corey Lewandowski will be dead in T+3 days....

Yup. Being conservative is fine and dandy. But there's a fine line. Sometimes you have to take risk and when the info starts flowing in the direction of your thesis, like a baserunner taking a lead, you take another step, then another, and at the sound of the crack of the bat, you're off and running. Too many of the conservative minded investors operator from a positive of fear, and they're basically wrong for 95% of the time, costing themselves opportunities. The only times they are really right, are very short term...maybe 2008-early 2009(12-18 months)...March 2020(for a literal 3 week period)....they still miss the opportunities or when weighted out, ultimately still fail to compensate for the years of missed opportunities. Of course there are exceptions. Like the guy in Omaha, although he too has at times fallen victim to the above. But for the average investor, it pays to be an educated risk taker. Your window of uncertainty regarding covid is winding down. When its gone and we have certainty the majority of the opportunity will be gone. Of course, with this said, I am referring to specific names. When I look outside those names/sectors....value is pretty remarkably hard to see in the remainder of the market.