Gregmal

LMFAO +1 Ive really just stopped caring about this. Its become such a laughable shitshow all around. When from day 1 even the experts(not COBF experts) but scientists, government agencies, etc are all chasing their tails and flying blind, dont wear masks!, oh wait no wear them! type shit, etc....IDK. Its a waste of time and energy. I only continue to be a monitor for the purpose of its investment ramifications. Otherwise, theres a news source and outlet for covid, for everyone. Just choose what you want to hear! Otherwise, I was at a hospital earlier and quite impressed by a little hallway gadget. Maybe the size of a kindle. Or a larger Samsung phone. Mounted on the wall discreetly. I walk by, maybe 5 ft away without even noticing it. Motherfuckin things says to me, "temperature is 97.6, you are fine"...pretty cool.

I think this is pretty spot on. As we've otherwise previously discussed, I just dont have the conviction necessary to make a macro type directional bet like I did in early September, at the moment. But I think your read is on point. For one, tech is priced pretty richly. Two, covid now, is pressing again and forcing repeated behavior similar to the first go around which will increase enthusiasm about these names. However at the same time, its always darkest before the dawn and while covid seems to be "spiraling out of control" according to some, we are also closer than ever to a vaccine and by any stretch, likely this time next year it will be a non story. So with tech co's trading at obscene valuations, the first sight signals indicate further robust demand, but the mid duration outlooks much of this dissipating or reverting somewhat, bleeding out the enthusiasm seems likely. I own but am underweight MSFT. I really want to add. The numbers were excellent, but Im holding off for now.

Third Quarter and Recent Highlights Net loss attributable to the Company was $0.05 per fully diluted share. After a $0.02 per share reserve against tenant receivables and non-cash reduction in straight-line rent balances, Core Funds From Operations (“Core FFO”) was $0.12 per fully diluted share. Same-Store Property Cash NOI excluding lease termination fees was up 9.3% from the third quarter of 2019 primarily driven by lower property operating expenses and free rent burn-off, partially offset by lower revenue. Strong liquidity position of $1.5 billion as of September 30, 2020, which consists of $373.0 million of cash plus an additional $1.1 billion available under the Company’s revolving credit facility. Moreover, the Company has no debt maturity until 2024. In the third quarter and through October 27, 2020, the Company repurchased $18.4 million of its common stock at a weighted average price of $6.36 per share, which brings the year-to-date total to $132.9 million at a weighted average price of $8.33 per share. For the total portfolio in the third quarter, we signed 18 new, renewal, and expansion leases, representing 247,449 rentable square feet. Collected 94% of third quarter 2020 total billings with 96% for office tenants and 84% for retail tenants. Through October 23, 2020, collected 92% of October total billings, with 93% for office tenants and 84% for retail tenants. On-track with previously communicated 2020 G&A run rate of $60 million, excluding one-time severance charges, which reflects an $8 million reduction year-to-date. Year-to-date through September 30th, the Company reduced property operating expenses by $26 million compared to the prior year period, driven by reduced tenant utilization and the Company’s cost reduction initiatives. The Company also expects $4 million on an annualized basis of permanent cost reductions from 2021 onwards. On July 13, 2020, the Company announced the appointment of R. Paige Hood to its Board of Directors, effective August 1, 2020, and the departure of William H. Berkman, effective July 31, 2020. Not too many are repurchasing stock right now. These guys are, granted a slower pace than previous quarters but down here, money well spent.

Yea that was pretty awesome to see the team rally around him. Great to see fans as well. We will see how many of them die. Folks need to stop living in fear and buying into the sensationalism. Seems every place in Europe is on their way towards some form or another of shutdowns...a darn shame. Thats the bureaucrat way. Which is possibly what we're looking at here if Biden gets in...granted it would likely be February by the time anything happens, but still. Its gotten absurd. Similarly and on a personal level, my father and his sister have kind of butted heads recently over this. Their mother, 97 years old, lives with my Aunt in Reno. Twice a year she flies to Florida to stay with my father. My father and his sister are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. My Aunt is also married to a typical New England finance guy. So 97 year old Grandma wants to come see everyone, but her daughter and husband are vehemently objecting on the ground of how unsafe it is. Granda's take? I'm 97, my life expectancy is probably what? 1-3 years regardless. Ive lived through Hitler and WW2(in Austria), and a whole bunch else that came after. I'll be damned if I spend my remaining years hiding in a bedroom in my daughters house. She takes every precaution imaginable, but otherwise tries to live as normal as possible. Meanwhile theres people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s behaving like scared children after watching a horror movie....Sensibility is needed.

I think the biggest thing to take from this is the premium to a preCOVID Forbes valuation. Utah is a total no name team, 20th in terms of valuation. I dont know if the Forum's $400M proceeds are comparable simply because the Forum isn't a basketball venue and Balmer only bought it because Dolan was using it to prevent him from building the Clippers a new stadium in that area. As for MSG, there is an added layer to this as the arena is in the (E) entity, which was just written up on VIC, whereas the teams are in the (S). But nonetheless, Precovid, Jazz were at $1.55B so this is in excess of that and further validation that there is zero reason to think MSGS has been effected by any of this, on a private market valuation basis.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30210088/utah-jazz-sold-ryan-smith-ending-millers-three-decade-run-majority-owners $1.66B for Utah! Makes Balmer's 2.2B for LAC seem like a steal.

i feel like i am really in the running for "most COBF dollars destroyed with ideas in 2020" award. Dont worry, the more you do it the more used to it you get. Seriously though, you can say theres always risk, but given where these have already fallen to and whats kind of being priced in, I think we've just(today) kind of gotten to a place where there is exhaustion(even many diehards have stopped buying) but on an absolute value basis, you're in a kill zone so to speak. Your initial JBGS write up for instance, in a roundabout way stated "its not the cheapest relative to NAV, but much better positioned". Well, how about 20% lower? That is todays prices. How about another 10-15% off? Same with ESRT and perhaps PGRE...there was talk of "$200 a square foot" or something...how about now? It's plain stupid territory and I can be quite stubborn but at the end of the day I dont care when you look at the profile of some of these. Its not like they're garbage. You're buying world class assets, cashflow, superb balance sheets(maybe not PGRE but I dont think they'll have liquidity issues) and well, in terms of in favor or out of favor....hmmm. I wonder where in the "cycle" we are on that? It often takes extraordinary circumstances to get extraordinary opportunities....well, thats this...The thesis has IMO been confirmed as companies like FB+AMZN still want to be in NYC, SF, DC, etc....this covid thing will pass, at worst over a short-mid duration time period and then from there everything will fall back into order, behaviors and pricing will normalize, and supply and demand will take effect. Long winded way of saying fuck it. Just obviously proceed with caution and realize this could go on a bit longer so make sure you have the capital to "rope a dope" the volatility.

Doubled my position in JBGS

David is disqualified from being taken seriously. Been wrong for too long. Although perhaps finally, finally, he may be on to something. I noticed the same thing on 9/2.

No idea. It seems anyone protesting these days is an extremist. Ive never understood it, or flying a flag, or bumper stickers, or any of that stuff but thats just me. I hope lessons were learned with the lockdowns and how destructive they are. Especially now that theres better understanding and significantly lower death rates. If China can build a massive hospital in 8 days you'd hope these idiots could figure shit out for a hospital setting in 6 months. Targeting hotspots makes sense to a degree. However even there, Florida for instance basically just shut indoor dining at bars and otherwise let the thing run its course....theyre fine. Despite record cases in aggregate it seems the pattern hasn't changed. You had your first states get walloped in March/April, then the next regions in June/July, and now a separate set of regions is taking it on the chin. Those that have re-opened, have seen the predicted bumps, but no massive reversions to previous levels, which one can hold their breathe, is a positive. Of course this can always change.

Riots in Italy over lockdowns....good for them. The political power grabs need to stop. You had 6 months to prepare "the system"...if you didnt do your job, you dont just get to rob citizens of their freedoms.

Just as much conviction as ever. For the 77th quarter in a row. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/david-einhorn-sees-enormous-tech-bubble-adds-a-few-stocks-to-portfolio.html

modest adds to ESRT, JBGS, DPZ EDIT: also bought a starter in SPNVU

Well done here. Great read.

Good question. I'd like her to be nurtured around nice people, but they need to have common sense. There’s two kind of private schools. The catholic ones. And the none catholic ones. The none catholic ones can be a lot more liberal than the public ones. The catholic ones have their problems too, like half of the kids don’t have immunizations. I noticed some schools are called Catholic and some schools are called Christian. I wonder if they are different? Generally speaking a "Catholic" school is operated by Catholics, and a "Christian" school is operated by Protestants. If you have a religious preference between the two presumably you'd go that way. If you don't, I doubt the differences would be meaningful. You also have to get a certificate/sign off from your church to attend these schools. Your kids have to be baptized. This isn't true for any of the ones I am aware of. Plenty of Jews, Muslim, even atheist, etc go/went to the ones I am familiar with. Most of the parents, provided they have the money to get it, care about academics and/or athletics, that is it. And the schools, while having a religion class and for the holidays, mandatory mass during school hours, generally milk the athletics and academics as well. I remember having off of school after beating the rival Catholic school in football, and off again for the state championships. Further, there were boosters and even under the table scholarships/grants if your kids happened to be really good at football or basketball. The schools do have alignments, but also are run by intelligent and well connected folks who know where their bread and butter is. As a parent, if you know where it is too, use that to your advantage. Raising a student-athlete? That might be your cup of tea. Raising a rocket scientist? Dont pay up for athletics, if that makes sense.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/26/tampax-under-fire-after-tweeting-not-all-people-with-periods-are-women/ I did actually LOL here. Its a jungle out there. I think folks just want their children to be raised with a good head on their shoulders and I agree, sex, regardless of what the narrative and slant, doesnt belong in the classroom until middle school.

Added some more V and WM.

IDK...maybe US macro, maybe macro US+elsewhere. Whatever makes money right? To add more color, I think select areas of the market will do well given the environment, such as stuff in the EV related universe, marijuana, casino, residential RE, but as always you've got to be selective. States will get big bailouts but still others need to raise funds via new revenue...the by product of that IMO will be felt in the above sectors. As someone who has private RE holdings in New York City, I am starting to thinking that a Biden victory will probably be better for bailout for NYC and if doing away with the $10,000 deduction limit maybe better for the local RE market. SHHHHHHHH! You and I both brother.

IDK...maybe US macro, maybe macro US+elsewhere. Whatever makes money right? To add more color, I think select areas of the market will do well given the environment, such as stuff in the EV related universe, marijuana, casino, residential RE, but as always you've got to be selective. States will get big bailouts but still others need to raise funds via new revenue...the by product of that IMO will be felt in the above sectors.

I agree with the timeline and have been using various Nov 20 options. Fundamentally, the market was IMO somewhat exhausted in 2016, barring policy changes. Tax cuts and deregulation, etc. Now we've done that and the only thing left to add juice is stimulus. Otherwise, that fundamentals arent very attractive and then skew of positive and negatives(IE margin expansion, multiple expansion, profit growth, regulation, tax rates, etc) are not favorable.

Beckett has fallen off substantially over the past 10-20 years. IIRC, they ended up getting caught up in a bit of a pay for grades scandal and then ended up selling to a new owner. The brand is still relevant, but no serious collector or investor will use them for grading anything vintage or seek out a card graded by Beckett over PSA. A Beckett grade is 20-30% less valuable than a PSA, if not more. The Beckett brand is more like KSA...both not in the same league as PSA. PSA has a remarkable moat. Just an example from one set I follow. Same grade on same card, sold around same time. PSA sells for nearly double. https://www.ebay.com/itm/1979-80-Topps-Wayne-Gretzky-Rookie-Beckett-8-COMPLETE-set-BONUS-/303665897928?hash=item46b3e5e1c8%3Ag%3A8cEAAOSw-uVfIMx9&nma=true&si=DxHys7%252BZQwXD9MxOXIrK3becCTI%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557 https://www.ebay.com/itm/06132080-1979-Topps-18-Wayne-Gretzky-RC-Rookie-PSA-8-NM-MT-HOF-Hall-of-Famer-/154053561547?hash=item23de4ecccb%3Ag%3Aq5IAAOSwp91fP0N8&nma=true&si=DxHys7%252BZQwXD9MxOXIrK3becCTI%253D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

Good insight! My wife went to a all girl school and said the same LOL Mine too, and yea, has nothing to do with the education either. The stuff that goes on at all girls schools makes locker room talk at the all boys schools look timid. Could you elaborate on this? SD pretty much nailed it. For whatever reason, when you take a bunch of girls, many fitting the daddy's little princess title, and send them all to a school where there is no concern about impressing the boys, things can get very intense and viscous. Which is not to say its not a worthwhile life experience; for some it maybe, but its definitely not for everyone and probably not something every parent would be ok with, if they knew. Keeping boys and girls together has some benefits, as does separating them, but all in all, segregation, regardless of race or gender, can distort reality, which I dont think is good for development of teenagers.

Razer Blade is the best computer Ive ever used. Unfortunately any service issues require you to mail it in which takes 3-4 weeks. My backup is a MacBook. I travel locally a reasonable amount so both are tiny and lightweight and no problem to run off a hotspot from a car or at a restaurant/random meeting spot.

100%. I think its important not to promote the notion that one can not get a good public school education. This is entirely untrue. However, as muscleman originally mentioned, a lot of it comes down to seeking certain things and wanting to avoid others. When I told some family members that I planned to utilize public schools for K-8, and then do private school for high school, one of the funnier remarks I was met with, was "by high school they'll already have been taught about gender identity and all that rubbish!". And its valid. But having also seen the other side of the coin, its like "ok, but at Catholic schools they're taught gays and non Catholics are going to hell"?! So some of it is pick your poison. There will be pros and cons everywhere. My thinking is that by the time they reach high school they'll have enough common sense, and if common sense escapes them, they are capable of understanding biology enough to dispel the liberal nonsense, and at the same time, they're also capable of understanding that you may like chocolate ice cream, I may like vanilla, someone else may like both, and that the same applies to ones preferences for tacos or sausages and choice of readings when it comes to religious/holy books. No one is going to hell or less of a person for having different preferences or beliefs. The big difference, indisputably, is course content and discipline. If you are into athletics, its also a factor. If you are any good at (pick a sport) and play at Don Bosco, you're going D1. Hackensack High School? Possible, but definitely a lot harder. In a way, there is a pay to play element; a lot of the pros of private school is that resources make doors open. Its still up to the individual to execute and prove worthy. Good kids will do fine either way. But one path definitely makes things a little easier down the road.

There's some of those here too. We're likely not in too different of an environment. You have the Del Barton, Lawrenceville, Peck, Morristown-Beards of the world which are $40-60k a year but for mere mortals the Bergen Catholic, St. Joe, Don Bosco Preps are all reasonable at $15-20k a year, IMO.