Gregmal

Just in at Costco...

I dont know much at all about LSPD. MELI I was a dork with a calculator for too long and missed it. Its a gem though.

Its reasonable to expect some lockdowns. But it will be regional. Its unconstitutional for a President to shut down a state. The FL, GA, TX, AZs likely are safe. Id be more careful on the coasts, but outside of trading around a bit with some of these, I just dont care to try to trade pennies hoping to avoid temporary drawdowns at the risk of missing generational opportunities. If you dont care where it trades over the next 3-6 months, these are some of the easiest investments we've seen since the financials post GFC.

Yea, agree on the above. Grossly expensive but in the sweet spot in an area I love the outlook of and rather than be another dork with a calculator griping about the euphoria, I'll take a small flyer here, ~$170, and if were get a 50% drawdown I'll play ball. Wouldn't be the first time. If it keeps ripping, I like that too. These are the types of companies you either have to buy at horrible valuations or come to terms with never owning.

LOL no high yield index swaps for us little guys, eh? I do like the kamikaze puts.

I dont know if I would suggest trying to predict what markets would do with another lockdown, but rather plan for how you will react in the event of various scenarios. For instance if we get another lockdown, and the market collapses, its a no brainer the buy the most covid impacted names, provided the balance sheets are in good shape and assets are solid. The next lockdown, if it happens, will be the last lockdown. If I was long WFH tech trading at 100x and it soared on lockdown news...I'd probably book some profits. I think many office and retail landlords are now derisked with the vaccine news. The next lockdown may effect tenants, but a landlord with a robust balance sheet and easy access to cheap capital will be fine, and then its pretty simple...you'll find replacement tenants as we recover. I would be concerned though about owning something like Macys...who's year hinges big time on Q4. Of course, theres caveats to everything and these are just examples, but Ive found it much easier to plan(and/or hedge) for either scenario rather than try to outright predict one vs the other, at least in cases like this.

OMG lol. I literally chuckled when opening that. Not in a bad or mocking way...but nearly a 100 page slide? I dont think Ive ever seen anything like that from a company of this size. Impressive.

I get the allure to this and do agree, even as someone who hates gold and the arrogance of your typical gold bug...my question would be...does anyone have any really exotic trade or way to express something like this. I really dont want to waste a whole lot of capital on these things because I'd rather just play it safe and buy things that can do well under this scenario as well as a few others...but if the trade really takes off it would be nice to have a few lottery tickets. Any ideas? I personally think theres probably a few similar metals or commodities you could apply the same thesis to, while also maintaining a few more ways to win...but maybe I am missing something. Is there a specific reason for gold?

I am a little dense, please explain Greg? See you on the GRIF in half an hour? With many money managers, if they find a real cant miss trade they tend to be hush hush about it, exactly as Bill was the first time. Then there's the other type of trades where guys tend to make a lot of noise, hoping to perhaps create a bit of their own alpha. See you on GRIF!

There's a third option, which I think may be more likely....some of these folks, are real weirdos.

Ive been adding a few VIX calls the past few days, but expect it to be money written off. The biggest difference to me, is that last time Ackman kept his mouth shut. This time he's being promotional about it. If think we can infer what he's trying to do.

I wonder if Fauci and the CDC will recommend people hold Thanksgiving and eat with their masks on? This will help with the pandemic. If masks prevents virus transmission they should also certainly prevent turkey legs and pumpkin pie from getting through, which will help in the fight against obesity and diabetes and solve covid since for everyone currently in reasonable health this is basically a non issue.

YE call today with Harding was excellent and definitely worth a listen if you are interested in this. Few key highlights Very conscious about how capital is deployed, now up to $22M or 10% of MC. Also have another $18M of reimbursements from phase 1. Almost certainly going to pull the trigger on another land acquisition IMO. Made a tremendous point about the instant value add that happens here when you buy land that is not already in a municipality with a water servicing contract, which is much of the area they are operating in. Instantly, the land + water combination creates value. Commercial planning should start towards end of 2021. Expect about $140M from phase 2 and conservatively ball parking $300M+ for phase 3 which should start getting some legs in about 2 years. Been getting a lot of interest and offers for the commercial space, but mainly its developers looking to be the middle man and snag much of the value. Mark is not having it and seems to prefer doing direct deals in the form of ground leases with companies like Home Depot, Walmart, Kroger, etc. Lot of different value levers and avenues here.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4387421-simon-property-groups-spg-ceo-david-simon-on-q3-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript 85% collections for Q3 and 600 leases representing over 2M sq ft signed. Only short term risk that represents a real long term problem on my radar is widespread lockdowns/government shutting down businesses destroying much of holiday shopping traffic. Would probably wipe out a few more retailers if that occurred since many are very heavily dependent on Q4.

Yea...I'm looking forward to the peaceful transition of power from growth stocks to value stocks.

Kind of a little granular but was curious if you knew anyway....typically on a REIT conversion/existing structure there are concentration limits and lazily off the top of my head its something like 5 shareholders cant own more than 50%...is this an issue here?

Even in the northeast, you still have both older and new homes being encouraged to come online with nat gas. Its been an active buildout for at least the past decade maybe longer. Solar provides a little bit of a get around as an ambitious homeowner can take the initiative, but anything relying on infrastructure will take forever to transition to, or transition from. I still have heating oil and my neighborhood is "targeting" nat gas options and hoping it happens in the next few years. And yes, all of this shit is expensive. HVAC units cost $10k-$30k typically and last 15-20 years. So once every two decade people may have new options to choose from, and a lot of that still relies on whats regionally or locally in place.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3633845-stanley-druckenmiller-buys-bitcoin

I think he meant he sold those, and that if history is a guide, his sell decisions are typically buy signals. At least thats now I interpreted it.

There s a good saying, "if it drives, flies, floats, or fucks, rent it"... That said, I totally agree with rkbabang as a boat owner. Expensive, but totally worth it.

I actually really like BRK here. Between the buybacks and the expertise wrt to financial and energy, that's probably one of the safest ways to play those spaces, albeit in a big vagina kind of way. There's definitely cheap financials and energy names out there, but I'd rather be a greedy pig in RE.

Real Estate and entertainment is basically in the clear now. I couldn't understand the appeal of financials/energy(outside of being cheap) vs the aforementioned for the simple reason that once covid went away, so did all their problems, now, just one less. Energy and financials have been lousy investments for the past half decade for good reason. They have tons of problems. With real estate, avoid B/C or worse quality retail and otherwise from here, even after todays rally, IMO, theres still massive rerating going to occur. Its one of the rare instances Ive seen in a while where there is more upside in the safer asset. People will be back in the offices in a couples quarters, retail will then firm up(even ignoring high quality retail assets already trading at sub 5 caps) and the spread to treasuries will be too big to ignore. I actually added a bit more JBGS and ESRT at the open.

Bought some SE. Hat tip to valueinvestor. You've definitely got a very unique approach and respectable track record with these sort of names.

Let's focus on making money here Greg. There are still lots of undervalued names. Just look at the whole Office REIT and Multi-Fam REIT thread Personally, I'd like to have a lot of those and some of the MSG E/S's right now...shucks. Too much time in politics and covid thread...maybe we get another shot when the mink virus gets here...one can hope.

I guess this kind of pisses all over Joe's big Covid Task Force agenda......was supposed to be a very big deal for him today.