Gregmal

What? Here in Texas the property taxes are insane because they are used to fund the school districts. I don't have kids but many of the public schools in local middle class neighborhoods seem very modern and well funded. During the recent pandemic friends with children have mentioned their transition to remote learning was smooth because all of the students already had standard issue: laptops, iPads, and hot spots from their public schools. I'm sure there are areas where they are high and schools are good. I'm speaking as a presumptuous Yankee. There's areas in the NorthEast where property taxes are lowish as well, but generally, if you're a tri-state area/New Englander, lets say you have modest HH income of $250k and a modest house, maybe $500k..you're at like 7% state income tax and 2.5-3.5%ish annual taxes on the value of your home...thats $30-40k in taxes; then you go take a peak at Florida or Texas and the same house carries 1-2.5% property taxes(or lower in some places) and state income is 0 and there's an epiphany of sorts. Now imagine if your income/house are more than "modest"...its a total money grab.

Good insight! My wife went to a all girl school and said the same LOL Mine too, and yea, has nothing to do with the education either. The stuff that goes on at all girls schools makes locker room talk at the all boys schools look timid.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/24/the-baseball-card-market-is-thriving-thanks-to-covid-19/ PSA has a virtual monopoly here and is integral to the vintage sports card market.

Education wise, even disregarding all the crazy indoctrination stuff, private school is head and shoulders above public. Ive attended both, and my public school was considered one of the best in the state/country. And even still, you're looking at differences as big as Earth Sciences vs Chemistry for 9th grade and Calc/Advances Stats vs no math/maybe trig in grades 11/12. The teachers in private school tend to be more rigid, and will push religion but IMO at least thats well intentioned but just misguided, vs some of the shit you're going to be getting in public school, as you've already mentioned. The opinion will largely also weigh on how committed you are to your area and its profile; if you live in a high property tax area. If you're paying $15k+ in property taxes and looking at another $15k or so for private school, its hard to swallow that you're effectively paying for school twice. Then multiply if you have more than one kid, although most private give discounts on 2/3 kids so maybe $15k+$12K, etc. However if you dont have to deal with high taxes, its definitely worth considering, and if you are not tied to the area, you'll see why a lot of northerners are heading to FL and TX and then just paying up for private with all the money they save on taxes. Public schools in the south are just as bad as the inner city NY/CA dumpster fires . The testing stuff is standard. Average intelligence or better and theres no problem getting in. Not sure what the equivalents around the country are but its similar to/easier than the NY Regents exams. If money is of no concern, then dont even think twice and just do private. This isn't even getting into how much easier it is to get into the really good colleges. My public high school might have had a handful of kids getting into schools that were respectable but not elite like Michigan, Miami, GW, Vanderbilt, etc. At private school maybe 1/3 of the kids got into Ivy/1A and everyone got into schools like Michigan, Miami, GW, Vanderbilt, etc. Networking as well, you'll meet a lot of really interesting and well connected folks at private which may be helpful for your kid later in life. A lot of wise folks have said similar to Buffett, particularly that kids really learn to think during their teenage years and that high school is arguably more important than college. College is just for partying anyway and ultimately just putting a "brand" on your first resume submission.

Yea I agree with much of that. Shorting is immensely time consuming and the payoff is mediocre over the long haul. I do screw around and make a lot of hyperbolic statements regarding covid but I do think caution was/is warranted which kind of led me back to shorting and hedging much more aggressively. I just dont like selling longs(core positions at least) really ever. Selling quality companies over the long haul IMO is a losers game. So giving up some of the upside in unique scenarios is how I try to balance that. On the investment(as opposed to trading/hedging side), I try to stick to only shorting frauds or failures as Jim Chanos put it. Fads are too hard to predict and a fad is a fad until its not and by then its ripped your face off if you are short. With SAM, there was no other way to put it than a valuation short, which is always dumb. The post mortem would simply be a self inflicted selection which wasted much of the long leg of my FIZZ investment. At the end of the day is it a wasted gain on FIZZ, a good trade and a bad one, or simply the cost of doing business? Same with the long CWH short YETI I had for a while, but the only difference was it became clearer to me anything outdoor related would have a tailwind and was able to cover at only modest losses...nevertheless if I am not short/hedged than I am definitely not as aggressively long so there's a case to be made that without the short/hedges I dont have some of the longs that did ok. If the netted out difference is, say +3%(just making up a figure) over a year...as you alluded to, was it even worth the brainwork? Even in the most dire times, it seems to continue to be evident betting against stocks is not wise.

If Biden doesnt win I'll start a GoFundMe for Dalal's Rainy Day. Dont you worry. I also wanted to acknowledge your success as well. At one point you tried a cute little "self tout" and claimed to be a doctor but then went back and deleted your post. I will assume this was a mistake and different from the many other times you delete or retroactively edited the content of your posts.

Wow, you sound like you know exactly wut you are doing--as always! Can you also calculate Black Scholes in your head? Maybe you can start LTCM 2. There is zero probability this could go wrong. You're on top of it Jersey Boy--Send Warren the memo and let him know he should margin up Berkshire! Well, everyone should do what works for them. Different ways to go about it. Buffett has his approach, I have mine. If you're good at shooting the basketball you want to take as many shots as possible and when you miss, who cares, just look for the next opportunity to shoot. If you miss enough you get pulled from the game. I'm financially independent in my mid 30s and you're padding the rainy day fund and hoping for a Biden bailout. Good luck. Being scared of everything always going wrong to the worst degree possible is a great investment strategy and surely you should be able to pay off the student loans and retire by 65 or so!

Interesting, but the more interesting tweet I found was a couple below posting a link to this. https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf Guess what happened next in the 20's? But again, I can see how it is human and market nature to always assume the worst and then work backwards. As a historian myself, my application of understanding in situations like this, has always been to bet against the worst case scenario. If nothing else, you have the entire populations of politicians and bankers and experts working on your side. Similarly, how many people, even in a scenario like 2008, bet on failure and ended up losing? Getting squeezed out of shorts. Having insolvent counter parties? Seeing the Fed take actions that wiped out their bets? People like Peter Schiff who "called it" and still lost 80% that year. People who bought at the highs in 2007 and held tight in fact, did better than most of the doomsdayers. The other arm of analysis, is, how far should this drag things down. People have mentioned a liquidity crisis, but as long as the Fed is where it is, I dont see that. Further, company profitability is not being zapped to 0, so couple this with the insanely low rates, and that debt markets certainly arent "closing". Demand in fact, should increase for issues from qualified borrowers, especially if the bond guys deem an economic seize up to be temporary. Basically just a bridge loan. If you are a shitty E&P or mining company, sure, but I'd gander 95% of S&P companies would have zero problem issuing debt. So if we can eliminate liquidity induced plummet, then we have what? Just a recession to worry about. Is it possible we see Great Depression type stuff. I suppose, but probably not. Quantify what a temporary recession should do to the broader market... maybe comparable to something in the 70's or early 90s... but, most of those were greatly enhanced by energy/oil related issues and inflation, neither of which are really on the horizon here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets Which one prior haven't we recovered from? Most were really just temporary shocks, similar to this, and exacerbated by program trading. Further, at least here, plenty of investors prior to February, were cautious or paring down their exposure because of "valuation" concerns... in November, December, January, etc. We can call the recent rise a "blow off top", but I think thats silly considering that a 10% rise over a half year stretch isn't really a blow off top, nor did it take us anywhere that extreme compared to market levels back in 2018 or 2019. From late 2017 S&P ~2650. So from that point to today that "market" has blown off a whopping 5% annually? An 8% return would take us back to roughly were we were in January. Just because people have been crying about valuation for a long time doesnt mean it was true. Generally speaking, the "broader markets" are relatively efficient. I myself have had plenty of stocks where Ive pounded the table and said the valuation didn't make sense, but was ultimately just WRONG. Same can be said here. The biggest issue I see right now is that the smart guys cant really calculate/model the impacts here so they're just throwing everything away. Still yet, I haven't really seen any of the fear driven people say where exactly the market should crash to or what levels it should now trade at. In fact, dare I say the value guys now just sound like momentum investors because "the trend is down". Again indicative of the above, and that fear is blinding. LOL Dr. Dalal Rainy days! Also, just a pointer. You can utilize margin for risk management purposes too. You're never "selling to early" because its money you're making that other people arent and you can hedge out your risk and if you're wrong its already offset anyway. Dont teach that at University of Phoenix med skool do they? Hopefully things pick up for you so that you can earn your way out of needing a rainy day fund!

Yea, stopped out on this one. Nothing really to learn. Already knew valuation alone was a poor reason to short. Thought the VIC writeup was on point. Really just lack of discipline/looking for hedges a little too aggressively. Byproduct of generally being greater than 100% long. Risk management is simply done via sizing the trade and sticking to your entry/exit. Here it was 2.5% at risk in the worst case.

Sheeeeet man, people really think bad news will lead to stimulus? Wish I had known that in March, April, May, June....Bbbbbut Buffett is bearish, I know. What to do, what to do.

Are they attempting to make an "Asians are bad drivers" joke or something? This seems preposterous.

Ive said it plenty of times before, but some of the "best" short sellers, ie Chanos, Left, Block....very often trade their own noise and juice the noise by deliberately misrepresenting information. Its the art of lying without lying. NOI is down 24%!

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

So some 6 month accountability here. Since I posted this, BPY has returned 105% British Land as a proxy for London office is up 16% (other british RE REITs are down) Vornado and SL Green as a proxy for NYC office have returned 6% and 23% SPG and MAC as a proxy for malls/GGP hav returned 45-60%. BPY has substantially outperformed all of them on a stock return basis. And that's not just because it fell more. BPY is down 16% YTD whereas SPG is down 53% MAC is down 70% and the NYC office reits are down 50%, london office REITs are down 30-40%. BPY has managed to fall less and rebound more while carrying more leverage, losing more assets, etc. Brookfield magic at work. Credit where it is due. Do you have any idea why BPY has done so much better? Yea this is downright stunning.

Starter in TSCO.

Ill do my best here. They have water rights that would cover about 60,000 SFE so they are easily covering the entire Sky Ranch, as well as capable of tapping nearby developments which is something they hope to do. My understanding on the margins is that they will improve in time as much of the major infrastructure and buildout occurs up front. Much of the infrastructure costs for Sky Ranch have already been incurred. The number suggested a few times on the $1500 yearly fees was about 70% margin. The lot sales would more or less be equivalent to the 2500-3000 SFE number. They have yet to announce, but its been said that the economics of this phase will be greater, for obvious reasons. The land cost is exaggerated as it was an opportunistic purchase. They bought the plot in a bankruptcy auction in 2012 or so, from the original Australian based development company. This would be equivalent to about a $40M or so purchase now. But yes, otherwise its an attractive proposition and a low risk strategy as they are not actually developing or building but rather subbing out to national builders with the only real company responsibility being the infrastructure and grading.

Netflix vs The World was pretty good.

Cool article https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2020/09/23/visas-crypto-strategy-is-driving-its-next-stage-of-growth/#10d4f26a5c4c Yea, Visa has a crypto division. Widespread acceptance has begun. Its happened slowly, and gradually over the past several years. But the table seems set and its hard to see what if anything can stop this. There is essentially no fundamental or execution risk that would normally be an issue with a company. Its all about adding users so to speak.

Sold trading position in TWTR

I dont know if you can use it and a model, but there are similarities. TPL was basically a land bank that happened to be located in oil territory. Being able to bleed the land while collecting royalties is an incredible combination. You also didnt need employees, which is great. Pure Cycle does not really have material royalty/subsurface assets, at least that we know of. They do periodically make some money in that area but I dont think it will ever become a significant value driver. Its more or less a free call. The growth driver for Pure Cycle and eventual profit engine will be the tap fees/lot sales which then convert to recurring revenue, and then also probably a significant CRE asset that I am hoping is monetized through ground leases and triple net leases. The water rights will be monetized gradually as the buildout takes off. So its in more need of direction and execution than TPL, which kind of just ran itself. I started losing interest in TPL as the company(and others) started getting greedy and trying to convert it to a business.

I think from here its a hard value proposition. Mike aint giving away Bloomberg. Is a 20% pop on an IPO reasonable? Sure. Is a company potentially worth 20% more because they can benefit from being public...possibly. I dont even think that logic is great reason to stay put many times, but its at least feasible within the realm of what happens in the market regularly. So at $24, you're paying the buy that 20% value creation. From there value needs to be created. A deal of this size, with a guy like Bloomberg, will be shrewdly negotiated and its based on the NAV, not the public share/unit price. Its similar to the RBAC deal with John Henry. $8B for the Fenway Group is about a 15-20% overpayment. Then tack on the % above NAV the shares are at. Its going to be virtually impossible for RBAC shareholders to do well. I dont think things will be "that" daunting for PSTH, but you're currently trading at a level that starts to make it hard to justify the deal price. Either Bloomberg negotiated a bad deal...possible, or the market is too optimistic. Media isn't an asset class I like well enough to wager, although I did short a few puts prior to this rumor.

Only risk I have on the radar is a bad acquisition. Harding has a good track record with capital allocation, but acquisitions are always a risk and they seem active in terms of buying something, whether it be local infrastructure assets, or land. Personally I'd prefer land.

Yea you are correct. I remembered them talking about exercising last year but will have to check when I get a change. There are still some outstanding but I thought they had redeemed a portion earlier. EDIT: https://ir.ayrstrategies.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/13/ayr-strategies-updates-its-plans-regarding-the-early-expiry Thats what I was thinking of. Nevermind lol

Nothing other than a few funds still likely liquidating, which is what Ive been hearing for a while now. There was huge concentration amongst 3/4 funds who were investors back from the GFC-shortly thereafter periods. Many took part in the private placement that funded the Sky Ranch purchase and have very low basis. Not sure what the urgency would be here at $9 or why if you own it, and understand it, there'd be any reason to support selling it. But whatever. Wouldn't be shocked to see another Form 4 from Plaisance soon.

I am being lazy here, but I vaguely recall a warrant exercise already taking place last summer, no?