Gregmal

Off topic & especially for Greg: Is it time to post a huge congratulations to you? [ ; - D] Haha. I continue to be impressed by you, John. But to answer your question, not yet. September/October the "third wave" arrives.

Of course it needs to be minimized....everybody with a voice just spent 3 months maximizing it! Yes, sadly this is a virus we dont have a cure for or from the get go, knew little about. So yes, older people and those with underlying conditions are going to die. However, at the same time, we just saw governments destroy their economies, murder peoples small businesses, and talk about sensational bullshit including "extinction level" events. The reckless kids on spring break were supposed to spread this everywhere...didnt happen. Georgia was supposed to be the new Italy, no wait, Florida was, you know, with all the old people. All for what? People who had knowledge, like orthopa, from day one had this pegged correctly. Yet arrogantly, and driven by political motives, know nothings just screamed louder and here, disparaged those who suggested things different than their narratives told them. The only "new Italy" turns out to be NYC. Pretty much ALL of the major hotspots turn out to be liberal hubs. Yet still, you want to blame this on "the Trump administration"... its pathetic. The only silver lining, is that because of all this bullshit, propaganda, and zombie apocalypse porn, some got to buy stocks at obscene valuations and make vast sums is relatively short order. But geez, for folks who claimed "millions" would die, it is quite the rearranging of goal posts to now claim "oh 100k died because the administration did such a poor job"(again, when most of the deaths occurred in liberal cesspool cities).... well, except for Dalal, who implied all this disaster but refused to ever make projection or commit to anything.

I mean did everyone forget about the crisis that was unfolding because of all the horribly irresponsible spring breakers partying? Or the humanitarian crisis in NOLA because of Mardi Gras. So much of this "crisis" has been media fueled nonsense that it unfortunately takes away from the seriousness of it in other respects; such as protecting senior citizens and at risk...an area that has been horribly handled, but mysteriously gets very little coverage.

I mean if you go back to January and February, even early March, it was here, and people were fine, economy was strong.....This has largely been a man made circus heavily influenced by political biases. For most of the population, this is no worse than the flu. Yet you have people now with PTSD. I was out on the boat the other day and saw a couple, sunbathing on their personal property dock, wearing facemasks to go with bathing suits, even though nobody was within 500 ft! Pure insanity. Testing helps, sure. But when people get too scrupulous with creating stories from the numbers...thats the problem and what I'd imagine was Trumps point. I mean we're again seeing "SOARING CASES IN FLORIDA" blasted everywhere. I then go look at the data and its two freakin thousand people and most are in Miami-Dade Broward.... big whoop. "TEXAS ON THE BRINK OF DISASTER"... 1100 cases. Georgia was supposed to go to hell in a hand basket because they bucked all the advice of the pundits and "irresponsibly" opened way too early. Despite this, 52k total cases, 800 a day. Get a slight uptick? The fear-mongering starts in again. Its clear what the agenda is.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3583068-simon-brookfield-authentic-consider-j-c-penney-bid-bloomberg The future of retail.... BAM and SPG will own everything. Book it.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd17811-3205-454e-89e4-953dce6b4dfe So their "employee only" fund does 60% a year...but their "rest of the people" fund, does this... https://www.ft.com/content/6bd17811-3205-454e-89e4-953dce6b4dfe

With several vaccine candidates stating it could be ready by September, I think these instances are less concerning than the ones a couple months ago. Passing time here is the important thing. Slowing the pace of spread. The areas will likely fluctuate, but the key thing is that A LOT of the US is naturally distanced. Many of the suburbs. Honing in on specific areas and activities for another 3-4 months is a lot easier and more defined a course of action than whatever the fuck it was everyone was guessing we do back in February and March. This is partially why I think the coastal states have purposely dragged their feet opening. Killing another week or two before roll out buys you a lot more than another week or two of time, if that makes sense.

Accidentally posted this in the cesspool thread, but its basically my thoughts here. I think some of you guys are on the money with your onbsrvations/analysis. It will be curious to see how these play out. I dont think any of these red states will go full shutdown over a few thousand cases a day or whatever. But I would imagine this would effect people mentally and as we ve seen the corporations who probably are acting out of 1) genuine concern and 2) not wanting the liability/blood on their hands; so they err on the side of caution such as SBUX did with many of its drive through location and what most corporate offices are currently doing. As with most socially responsible acts, this will obviously have a cost, which will be bore by shareholders as their allocation of the profits dwindles and in some cases, their per share ownership gets diluted. I'm also eagerly anticipating seeing everyone who missed the massive rally get excited and say "see! I was right to be in cash", after a 10-20% retreat. Which I will buy again. And others will probably completely miss. Maybe Buffett gets a mulligan. I agree about the psychology of the trading range as others have said. I dont see the recent highs being eclipsed for a while. So play the ranges.

It will be curious to see how these play out. I dont think any of these red states will go full shutdown over a few thousand cases a day or whatever. But I would imagine this would effect people mentally and as we ve seen the corporations who probably are acting out of 1) genuine concern and 2) not wanting the liability/blood on their hands; so they err on the side of caution such as SBUX did with many of its drive through location and what most corporate offices are currently doing. As with most socially responsible acts, this will obviously have a cost, which will be bore by shareholders as their allocation of the profits dwindles and in some cases, their per share ownership gets diluted. I'm also eagerly anticipating seeing everyone who missed the massive rally get excited and say "see! I was right to be in cash", after a 10-20% retreat. Which I will buy again. And others will probably completely miss. Maybe Buffett gets a mulligan. I agree about the psychology of the trading range as others have said. I dont see the recent highs being eclipsed for a while. So play the ranges.

Whats going on with respect to office, especially in lockdown areas, in the CRE space, is akin to forcing your significant other to sleep with other people. Theres absolutely zero good that can come of it. And the longer it goes on, the more normalized it gets for both parties. The problems that initially you deal with, hoping to eventually just go back to normal, the longer this goes on, you start figuring out how to solve. If it goes on long enough, it gets more comfortable and eventually you may even prefer it. For sure, a ticking time bomb. I think the market is pricing public assets insanely opportunistically, so I agree with and like BAM's approach. But I think its hard to spin this as "a good thing". For instance, you would think some areas are more resilient than others; my sister works for Lockheed and is based out of Orlando. Defense company, w/ high security clearance, southern red-ish state(no real lockdowns like on the coasts), at EARLIEST, they will be WFH until late August, but probably until end of year.

shorted some AAL, and added to PINE, F shorts

9% a month to short. Rule of thumb, whenever you have a triple digit borrow cost, lower prices are almost a guarantee. Expressing a short here is tough though. Selling ITM calls maybe.

I continue to be amazed by their balls. Yes, of course some of it is talking their book; but they also continue to put their money where their mouth is....in office and retail. Personally owning select office and a mix of retail RE, I kind of agree, but it will be interesting nonetheless to see how this plays out. These are two of the most hated areas of the market, and have been for some time even prior to COVID.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3581908-simon-property-pulls-plug-on-taubman-deal Dodging a bullet. The acquisition itself, in a vacuum, was probably a good move. However you dont often get a mulligan like this, so I'll take it, even though I dont like companies that typically do shit like this. Interesting though that TCO apparently took no precautions or made efforts to stem financial bleeding. Now that will cost them.

This is a great example of what happens when the forces of true small/micro cap value play out. Unstoppable. Everything is working for this one.

I think one thing the market has going for it is the fact that the politicians and the Fed both seem 100% committed to bridging Main Street. And fortunately for the market, the measures they choose to take to help Main Street disproportionately benefit Wall Street/HNW folks/big corporations. That could be a factor.

And it took even less to get to the "Great Depression" phase. I forget what his handle is, but he was running around gleefully saying he was right and calling anyone with a bank stock a 'bagholder'. Holy shit! An investment related(kind of) post from ERICOPOLY! Up there with Big Foot and Lock Ness Monster in terms of rarity or proof it exists!

Curious if anyone here has looked at SWK Holdings? Seems as if there'd be some overlap with this type of business. Trades well below book. Making some optical improvements that benefits shareholders, and could possibly get a Russell inclusion bump.

Was the dividend in doubt? I dont think so, but as we've seen with a number of companies, there was/is always the risk that "preserving cash" becomes the "safe" option. Part of the reason I like this is because these guys have been notoriously cautious over the past several years with an emphasis on building a fortress like balance sheet and allocating capital in a highly disciplined manner.

You should add an option for "hid under a table in your basement with 6 feet of space separating each member of your family" so that maybe some of your friends can answer.

Well, we can start by looking at all the folks who have been sitting on huge hoards of cash and crying about valuations for a damn near eternity and compare that to the people who just regularly invest.... or we can get a little more granular and realize that valuation only matters IF you have an expected rate of return requirement AND your metrics are right. Just because YOU do not agree with the valuation metric YOU choose to evaluate a company on, doesnt mean that EVERYONE ELSE, is wrong. Being flexible and openminded is probably the best approach.

Full dividend announced. No cut here....yet.

Make trading free Manufacture a massive market crash Lock people in their homes Give people free money Seems like a market manipulation scheme...

I was literally in the middle of replying to you when Sanjeev went on a power trip... but.. here's what I'd say. I have definitely gotten the impression that this last couple month stretch has really hammered home to these guys how important it is to have a major listing given the degree to which their stock price and multiple will impact the companies finances. VITR for instance trades at 30x EBITDA or something like that. I firmly believe they have a deal lined up which is why they just did an ill timed private placement when otherwise they have more than a sufficient cash pile to get by the next few months. But definitely read the documents regarding the AGM you should be receiving in the mail(or probably already have). They expand on the measures being taken which are only relevant if you intend to uplist. This will occur next week. You would figure the uplisting happens Q3 or Q4 assuming the timeline is typical of such events.

I'm taking my ball and I'm going home because you won't play the game I want to play. One of those sentences is a factual unbiased statement, the other is an opinion with a partisan narrative behind it. Yay news!