Gregmal

I love Kyle Bass. Listening to him is quite enjoyable and he is excellent at bringing forth unique logical framework and outside the box ideas. At the same time, yeah, you're better off just listening.

I don't know the underlying approach of the person's trades but it's not as if he was George Soros who took extremely speculative positions, but the his downside was capped. At that moment, there was no verifiable information that could lead the person to think that it would be good trades. The odds in my humble opinion were 60/40 at best, but then again, the person may have a different perspective or thought process that I may not be able to wrap my head around. Secondly, if the person really titled his contribution "Suck It Value Investors!" That kind of says it all for me because people never typically never get criticized by people doing more than them. I admit this is an overly simplified look on this - either way, I rather read this than someone who lost their life savings. What I mean is that he obviously found very early on that some stuff would be more effected by COVID news that others, and rode that trend to the bank. There is definitely rhyme and reason to many of the trades. The timing definitely seems lucky, but I think there's a fair amount of skill involved in what was executed here. Whether its repeatable or not....IDK.

Well, I wouldn't totally overlook the underlying fact that, while this guy took an extremely speculative approach, there is a certain power to momentum and trend following, one in which he very obviously exploited here. Theres a common thread to what he goes long and what he goes short. I think more credit is deserved here than maybe first glance would indicate.

Personally, I am infuriated Trump didnt put all the young people in America in cages. Would have definitely stopped the massive spreads occurring at bars and restaurants everywhere....

Pre deal SPAC(especially if you can get IPO, which Bill certainly can) are probably the most underrated cash alternatives an investor can buy.

I heard he also had an investment that went down 10% once.

I dont think anything has really changed. Or see how you cant argue that Ackman is quite an investor. Of the merry band of Harvard buddies, Ive always said, Tilson is the idiot, Einhorn is incredibly book smart but continually misses the forest for the trees, and that Ackman is something special. Ackman's problem is overconfidence. His list of successful investments, not to mention pure home runs of the caliber most investments cant even dream of, is quite long. People are obviously entitle to their opinions, but acting like the guy is a moron because of a few bad investments its plainly stupid. He both succeeds and fails on a large stage, but given where he is and his overall performance numbers, not to mention coming back from a few horrible years, is impressive, if not admirable. And yea, closed end funds or captive vehicles always trade at discounts to NAV. So Im not sure there is much to make of that with PSH.

Great success with Covid. Economy? Not so much if you're shutting down every few dozen cases...

yup. x2 (joke intended)

Dope-O in California, now after months after already imposing lockdowns on people and business, today taking it a step further. This kind of stuff is what the market fears, not the actual virus or number of cases. Poor and indecisive governing and continuous restriction of businesses.

Numbers continue to improve, Observatory expected to reopen 7/20.

Situations similar to this may be quite close to occurring if there is a radical regime change come November.

What they are really saying is that they don’t want new customers right now, unless they are really worth it. Invert this and ask yourself, why a high net worth customer does not refinance with his existing banking relationship. A strange about face from wanting them sooo bad that their employees, on a systematic basis, felt the pressure to fraudulently open accounts for fear of their jobs.

Sounds like Joe MacMillan from Halt and Catch Fire. Great in one role, disaster in another.

FL Gov...If Walmart is open, school should be open. 100% agree. One of the greatest scams of the government shut down, one that certainly many lobbying dollars supported, was the fortification of big business. It dawned on me a couple months ago while NJ was shut down. My son and I every Friday(pre Covid) used to go to the local toy store and he'd see, and play with, and pick out a toy car or truck. So a few weeks into lockdown, he noticed this hadn't happened and asked why we hadnt gone in a while. I loosely explained the world to him and he asks "where can we get toys". I thought, holy shit. Walmart and Amazon. While the little mom and pop store, with great, quality Bruder trucks and imported toys, was forced shut despite, "maybe" seeing foot traffic of 2-3 people AN HOUR. How in the world is it that in the name of public health and safety, and keeping large crowds from gathering, forcing everyone to go to a high traffic super center box store is deemed safer than simply letting a business that sees a dozen customers a day stay open? Oh, lets say only "essential" businesses. Great, but then why are the "essential" businesses allowed to sell "non essential" items? Its a total load of shit and more evidence of a crooked system. This is also, not to be confused with bars and shit like that, which is entirely different. Similarly, I saw a taxidermist who had similar thought. "I work out of my shop, and sit by myself working on mounts all say. I might get 4-5 customers stop by, PER WEEK! Why cant I work? I have to pay my bills." Welcome to America.

Interestingly enough, my $20 June puts that I bought when stock was at $250 still have about half their value

I think you're on the money. Only additional thought is that basically this is the definition of a textbook recession/cycle swing. Unless you are of the belief that Covid will never go away and there won't be herd immunity either, which I dont know of anyone who believes that. So if you can accept that, then it is indisputably a temporary headwind. In which case its just a matter of time. Theres already more than enough evidence to debunk the "life will never be the same" argument. People lived the way they did because they liked it. When they are able to, they will happily go back to that. The hiccup with office, is that its not the "people" that choose, as they do when say, going to a restaurant or hotel. Its the powers that be whom control leases and office locations. But here you are talking NYC and SF, which will always be desirable locations.

Rarely. I just find reading much more efficient.

Bought some SPAQ warrants. No reason other than I felt like gambling. Come on now RobinHooders, do your thing!

This is one of the main reasons I wouldn't touch WFC. Business is getting squeezed everywhere, the government is up their ass, and then on top of it they are doing stuff like this. Absolutely no reason for eliminating huge portions of your potential customer base. I know a lot of reasonably wealthy folks. Almost all have assets tied up, many in real estate. The idea of parking $1M+, even for wealthy folks, can be highly restrictive. Especially for something as simple, and likely collateralized, like a refi. Totally asinine.

Yes, exactly. Further, I think folks are greatly overestimating their focus and concerns with respect to buying these retailers. You're talking about a $50B EV juggernaut who can raise capital at 3% spending 8 to low 9 figures, almost always with a JV partner(s), through an SPE. Even if Simon was taking these companies down themselves, the figures are rounding errors. I can also see this eventually resulting in "Simon exclusive" brands, either only available at Simon locations, possibly driving traffic growth, or giving optionality on the licensing. And to a degree, yes, if they kick the can down the road, while, mind you, continuing to make money, for 10 years, this is a home run because thats more than enough time to continue to gradually reposition and redevelop a good chunk of their locations. And another point, the "death of brick and mortar" is just the latest infatuation. PCs were supposed to be goners following the GFC; Dell and HP were going bust. Heck even Eastman Kodak is still around. People just like stories and narratives. But the businesses hang around quite a long time, and the top performing locations(heck even Blockbuster) will stay around even longer. In fact they rely more and more on their best locations to stay afloat. If all or most of those locations happen to be at Simon locations, well, the "death of retail" doesnt really matter very much.

So I saw large outside gatherings in NYC were cancelled til September. But not protests. The politics continue to drive this.

Yup... $5M adjusted EBITDA for the MONTH and records for the Q despite shutdown. These guys are good, and the business is great. Unfortunately, since I am involved, this continues to be the only SPAC not up 600% of late.

They are not playing offense, they kick the cans down the road. A lot this retailers like Brooks won’t exist 10 years from now, but SPG can’t afford to have vacant spaces in their malls so they have to keep zombies alive. The whole thesis that malls can become office spaces, experience Locations and Restaurant rows get covitzt. They are screwed, imo. I think I will see the Roosevelt mall in LI getting gutted out in the next 20 years, just to name one example. How arent they operating from a position of strength? Name one other landlord currently making acquisitions? Name another landlord currently raising capital, at will, at 2-4% rates going out to 2050? What should they be doing, buying companies pre-bankruptcy or propping shit up like BAM is doing? While the narrative you mention is popular, and currently whats driving the share price, its already been debunked, not only by the above, but by the clear and unmistakable fact that we've already seen what happened once they government gets out of the way. Restaurants and experience oriented operations and not dead, or "covitzed". Not even close, once people are allowed to go back they flock there in droves. Which is why you are seeing, even still now, post Covid, quality restaurants trading hands at sub 5 cap rates. The biggest short term risk is the government forcing shutdowns. The largest mistake in fact was shutting things down, because it gave everyone from Joe Schmoe to Gap a semi legitimate excuse to stop paying their bills. But Simon, as they've shown, can weather that. Q2 payout was $1.30, with that being the minimum for 3&4.

LOL now going after Brooks Brothers. A personal favorite brand. Say what you will about the sector, but these guys definitely seem to be playing offense. I'd also add, that while there are plenty of Pier 1's out there, the issue with a lot of these retailers isn't sales or profitability, its waayyyy tooo much debt, usually the result of being private equitied a few too many times.