Gregmal

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? Of course, “this time is different”, we should not worry about mortality going up because covid is not a real threat, right? Yes please tell me what happened in late May/early June in AZ, FL, TX... Well, if you want to ignore the protests, then the answer is nothing. Nothing different happened. The increase in social interaction has been continuously increasing since the middle of April. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ebb02WuUEAIUcmb?format=png&name=medium Lol! The huge protests in AZ, TX, and FL? Why you leave out NYC, DC, MN, cities in the EU which had by far much larger protests tho? Contradicts the narrative? The cult is strong with this one. Note how cultists can’t even bring themselves to name their Daddy anymore...a sign of shame It's at this point, when someone starts using epithets and insults, that I stop engaging. You're dealing with somebody who is the literal definition of the pot calling the kettle black when it comes to partisanship. His post frequency has a 100% correlation to case outbreaks, media fear mongering, and political narratives. He refuses to bring up or address counterpoints that do not fit his narrative, instead mostly ignoring them or simply branding anyone who raises the question something derogatory. He has also, on this thread: -been caught lying by multiple people -caught retroactively modifying content of his previous posts(worried about appearance/being right, little narcissist?" -refused to make any sort of commitment to a position or stance but rather spew innuendo and narratives -disappears as soon as the political narrative dies down(end April-June) It really is evident the irony of somebody "calling out Trump" for behaviors he embodies himself. Worried about appearance, refuses to commit to anything, deliberately misleading and divisive, regularly misrepresents issues or leaves out pertinent data, craves attention, claims "Im right, you're wrong" incessantly and without regard for the actual results... These type of folks bring nothing to the table. The type of person that comes to an investment forum and promotes retail investor favorites but then gets overwhelmed and folds like a cheap chair when pressed with a simple question like "do you even own PTON?". You arent bringing anything to the table posting basic charts that anyone with eyes can find on the internet, or quoting someone from Twitter who has the same opinion as you... Its amusing when you have clowns calling out clowns for being clowns. He wants to ramble repeatedly about failures of leadership but either ignore, or claim "his guy" did a great job when the facts are that even NYT is now stating the his state, the NYers, are likely responsible for more than half the entire cases in the country! And then his state, will still likely hold all records for cases, deaths, hospitalizations, etc. Classic example of dissonance. Like a guy driving a 2006 Hyundai mocking that old, shitty, beat up 2011 BMW....maybe he's just mad because he lost his red nose and is nervous about being called a racist for wearing face paint....who knows. This is an investment forum, and everybody over time will be right and wrong plenty(if you're honest and dont go back and modify your posts) and the purpose is ultimately to gain some sort of benefit, from an investment perspective. So identifying and discarding people who berate anyone who disagrees with them over absolutely petty and insignificant things, is a good idea. Sure, people are wrong to say, new Covid cases but no increase in deaths....getting Covid does not equal instant death. It does lag. But being a piece of shit in how you respond to anyone who suggests that perhaps deaths totals have lagged more than normal, is unnecessary. One should be open to everything, but also challenge everything. Its interesting there has been zero efforts to tackle the "cycle threshold" issue. But again, not surprising because it disbands a good chunk of the political benefits inherent when ignoring it. I think somebody who has done an excellent job of bringing their interpretation of the data forward and laying out "this is how I see things playing out, and this is how im expressing it through the market" is alwaysdrawing. Rather than "FIRE", "FIRE", "LOOK TESLA IS GREAT"---do you own TSLA? "NO COMMENT", "OH PTON IS THE NEXT AAPL", do you own it?- "I'M NOT ANSWERING".... On cycle threshold https://www.infectiousdiseaseadvisor.com/home/topics/covid19/ct-value-may-inform-when-patients-with-covid-19-can-be-safely-discharged/ Why is a positive case in one country not a positive case in another? And this is what we want to base our "data" interpretations on? Just like with some folks here, when a country wants to change the results, the easiest way to do that is to move around the goal posts. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202006250010

Making the masks political was indeed very stupid. But otherwise, as I said probably back in February or March, there is a massive difference between being able to do a China style lockdown in China, and in America. Americans are different people. It shows with the obesity, focus on materialism, me first Twitter and Instagram stuff, etc. It doesnt help you when the high courts are also declaring it unconstitutional. Americans will do what they want. Even in NJ there were multiple cases of businesses just refusing to stay shut and people continuing to go to them. Same in Michigan and Texas. The difference hopefully between now and March is that the states have had time to prepare for the hospitalizations and come up with contingency plans, if they become out of hand. There really shouldn't be a need to shut the economy down, that was incredibly stupid. When looking strictly at the figures, its said that 10-20% of the total population get the flu every year and you've got 30 million hospital/ER/urgent care visits as a result of it. Worldometers currently has 15,816 serious/critical CV cases. Not looking to get back to a flu vs CV debate, but having plans and protocol in place will be a huge factor in how something unfolds. Given the time everyone has had to prepare, it would be an unforgivable mistake should any state not be ready.

If you have a true lockdown, eventually it is impossible for cases not to eventually go to 0. However, in America, this is simply not possible. Even in places where it is accepted, after 2-3 weeks people will just stop listening. Or the liberals will say protesting doesnt count.

Food for thought: Unfortunately, not once has CNN, MSNBC, or FOXNews published a single article containing the term "cycle threshold". The media is lying to the public about COVID-19 by making it seem as though the PCR "swab" testing used today has the ability to determine... yes you have COVID-19 or no you don't. The #1 question that the mainstream media should be asking today is... "Who determined that a cycle threshold of 40 should be used to determine whether or not you have COVID-19?" A cycle threshold of 40 means that a person tests positive for COVID-19 if there is a match for one of the genetic sequences associated with SARS-CoV-2 in less than 40 cycles of amplification. After 39 cycles of amplification, there are 550 BILLION copies of the DNA being tested. If the PCR test doesn't find a match until 39 cycles, it means that the test is only finding trace amounts of one of the genetic sequences associated with SARS-Cov-2 and the person being tested has a 0% chance of getting sick or infecting another person, but based on today's CDC standards that person will count as a new positive case of COVID-19! The truth is... it was already proven last month that a patient with a cycle threshold value of 35 or higher has a 0% chance of being contagious. Patients with a cycle threshold value of 33 or 34 also have an extremely low chance of being contagious. Most foreign countries appear to be using cycle threshold values of between 25 and 35 to determine if a person is positive for COVID-19, which explains why they have lower amounts of COVID-19 cases.

Isn't the underline a function how things are perceive in a given snapshot in the timeline. The bet that BX made on industrial warehouse seems to be right on the money now, but if we go back to the genesis of that bet, which was probably a decade ago in a much smaller magnitude would have had folks scratching their heads. The obvious bet 15 years ago was to be long office building & malls. Meaning that the malls that BAM is making a bet today, could be perceived differently another 10-15 years from now. After all they are in business of re-purposing them and as long as BAM has enough imagination to see the real estate can be far more than just a mall or can be completely different, than I think we can call that a contrarian bet in the making, which you can participate by using a 10-feet pole, through BAM itself as oppose to BYP. I dont disagree necessarily. I think one of the most misunderstood aspects of the mall hate is that well placed dirt is well placed dirt. Todays mall doesnt have to be tomorrows. Worst case scenario it costs maybe $15M to demolish a mall and start from scratch. Then you can be whatever you want to be, even a warehouse. Malls in tier 1 cities, especially right off major highways will do just fine IMO. The future will obviously look different, but look at what the inside of a major casino looks like. Shopping, entertainment, rooms/housing, and often office space. Simon and BAM are already doing this.

He also went bonkers with HHC, something that at least if last time is a precursor, would get annihilated. While I think there is pain in the RE and names that previously got whacked if the economic recovery takes a step back, I am also wondering if this is where some of the clouds circling the more popular stuff start tempering investor enthusiasm for them. Every pop stock but maybe NFLX and MSFT currently have big clouds hanging over them, especially politically.

Yea they should have ate their vegetables or whatever....

You are wrong. I have 182k lol

US at 33k with TX, CA and a few others still unreported for many counties. Good chance at 50k+ today. Perhaps 100k+ days coming soon given what you know will be rowdiness for 4th of July as well. Oh yea, and OK still hasn't reported the 6000 Trump attendees who undoubtedly have it. Should make for some trading opportunities. I added big time to my general market short into the close. There is almost no way the market opens green Monday, if past patterns are any indication and news flow is as expected.

Blackstone seems to go to where the puck will eventually be. They've also seemed to do a pretty good job managing their reputation. In the PE world, IMO, BX is in a league of its own. Visa and MasterCard style. Brookfield is no doubt impressive in its own right, but much like Discover, again IMO, it has its limitations, does a poor job managing its reputation(or doesnt care) and probably extends itself at times, in terms of taking on unnecessary risks.

Blackstone is like Visa, "everywhere you want to be". BAM is like Discover, pretty darn useful in certain areas, but sometimes sleezy and not exactly in the right places all the time.

Does this count? https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/sex-addict-claims-hot-female-gamers-caused-him-to-injure-penis/ Estavillo alleges in the transcript he even once ejaculated on his PC monitor, which caused his gaming system to short-circuit and resulted in a fire that temporarily caused his apartment to black out.

Just buy a marginal amount and then watch it. Same goes for fear driven selling. Sell a little and see how it sits with you a short while later.

I think the spinning out of RE is obviously operating from weakness. On the other end, the beauty of owning real estate, especially high quality dirt like Simon does, is the optionality of its usages. These guys, mainly SPG and BAM will now likely just do the PE thing and buy out the business operations for peanuts, squeeze every dime they can out of them, and in doing so, buy themselves much needed time to repurpose a lot of the locations. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

I think if nothing else, you just have to simplify the heck out of the general ballpark we may or may not be in. Ask yourself, as a value investor, you look to buy things that are 1) undervalued, and 2) out of favor. You would naturally look to sell when they become in favor. I am not advocating buying or selling this, but where on the spectrum of "out of favor to in favor" has this gone?

$60B in the war chest, but they simultaneously arent paying some of their mortgages and begging lenders for forbearance, while showing no mercy and demanding their tenants pay their rents..... I really dont like these guys as people, but I guess its about making money, eh?

So I dont follow that closely, but WTF is going on in Los Angeles. Haven't they been on lockdown forever? Weren't they the ones who said theyre staying locked down til like late July? Why are they still reporting the type of numbers they are?

My sense is that the market doesnt fear the virus...it fears the government responses. You can look at charts about death rates and total cases all you want, but I'm waiting for one charting the economic consequences of "shut everything down and lock people in their homes"... It is also evident a lot of people do not fear the virus(for better or for worse) and have only been held back by government shutdowns. To the extent they focus on what should have been done from the get go, worry about older and at risk and tell the rest to be careful, I doubt things turn out as morbid as some are predicting. Which would be fine for stocks....if they were already obscenely expensive.

Incorporating the assumption of a 28% tax rate under Biden I think is important. I also have been looking at trying to find companies that will obviously have large NOLs from Covid that should help them over the next few years. Something like the sports teams or entertainment companies who literally have 0 revenue.

This "engineer" missed basic math apparently. End of lockdown + Memorial Day + Protests + Reopening of the economy + (just for you libtards) Trump campaign rally = Increase in positive cases, especially amongst younger people, especially in Red states who implemented these things first(despite again, the cases being largely in blue neighborhoods).... go figure. Not farfetched either. No joke, I saw a headline today stating "COVID cases go up after Trump rally"... they were expecting 0 I guess.

Yeah, you pretty much nailed it and a lot of folks are of the same opinion. Been hearing the same from Orthopa for weeks. Theres no narrative or agenda though. For instance, its totally coincidental that when Florida cases go from 3800 to 4200, the headlines of "cases soar to another record", but when cases drop to 3400 theres nothing of the same aggressiveness like "Florida cases plummet!". Then theres other folks who during the height of the panic were posting many times a day, and then mysteriously disappeared. Only to come roaring right back at the first sign of "another wave"... No agenda either from any of these fellas. They deserve oh so much credit for predicting that, wait for it, cases are trending up! Orthopa was on the money months ago. For a while the message board DR's thought they knew better, but he turned out to be spot on. Remember, the was NO coronavirus anywhere prior to late February! Its was impossible that it was around before then! Impossible. No way more testing equals more confirmed positives! Then there was the time someone said, I hope you are invested in the market...trying arrogantly to be condescending, and then the entire market proceeded to go up 20%+. Brilliance all around for sure.

Yes, Florida(specifically, Republican stronghold Miami-Dade) will continue to see increasing cases, as will many of the other states. This really shouldn't shock anyone, although it will certainly continue to be reported on as "breaking news" and given greater coverage than it probably deserves because fear sells and certain people wake up every day hoping for "MOAR!". But, we've already seen how this works, as other parts of the country went through the same thing in March/April. Provided it isn't bungled terribly like NYC was, the hospitalizations(depending upon how they are classified) and death rates should be much lower. Certainly nothing to stop the world for. Hopefully everyone learned from that mistake.

This is an excellent idea. While maybe annoying, is there any reason at all it doesnt make sense to mandate an individual with limited investing experience take a brief online tutorial/course prior to being permitted to open a trading account? Doesnt even have to be pass/fail, just a basic intro of "hey this is what you're getting in to".

We're not really going to know whether a second wave materializes until late 2020 - even if things quiet down, the threat will be looming over us with the return of cold weather and flu season. So it's hard to justify a runup in the market on that basis. We've got 6 months to kill until then. But every day that ticks by we are one step closer to effective treatments and/or vaccine discovery. And we've already learned a lot about how to treat people and keep them out of ICU's, all of which is positive. At this point I'm seeing businesses closing every day, jobs being lost that will not come back any time soon, and investors that don't seem to care. I'm pretty certain we're seeing the numbers bear out the start of the second wave as we speak. We hit a low point in daily cases at end of May with ~18k/day. Since then, multiple places have reopened and some semblance of normalization has occurred and we're back to ~25k+/cases per day for the last 4-days in a row (30k today!) - the last time this happened was early May when we were still coming down from the major spike. Also, keep in mind NYC just reopened and is not yet contributing meaningfully to the spike despite being the absolute largest contributor the first time around. Anecdotal evidence from friends who live in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas, and California paired with my own observations here in Missouri suggests that most people still aren't wearing masks and still aren't really taking this seriously. A second wave is all but a foregone conclusion and I think we're seeing that play out in the data today. We're damn near close to doubling the daily case load nationwide, from the lows, without NYC contributing yet and having only been re-open for ~3 weeks. Yup. I did a bit of lightening up this week. Am actually now holding a smidge of cash and have a number of shorts on reducing exposure further. Probably most bearish Ive been since I can remember. Take all of the above, and add in that we have a 4 week void with regards to earnings. As the case load builds up, fewer and fewer companies will maker an effort to commit to any sort of guidance, now, for Q3. This on top of numbers that we already knew would be bad but expected to ramp back up. On top of this, I think there is high probability you see re-interruptions with some of the sports seasons as cases again flare up. You probably will see a number of college football teams cancel their seasons in the name of safety. Then just take what our eyes are seeing; every rally this week was aggressively faded...never a good omen. I even took a speculative gamble at the close on a reasonable sized index short. You tell me, more likely open Monday? +5% or -5%...could of course be up green but I think the skew towards some kind of massive moves definitely favors the downside. That said I do think some spots have promise. I think there will be an effort to make the coastal reopening very positive. This while "episode" has been entirely news driven, so I dont think it would be unreasonable to expect that to continue.

I would add that most of the volume occurred in the last 30/60 minutes of trading and typically seems consistent with previous volume action around the double/triple/quadruple witching. Same thing happened and was covered on page 6 of this thread, on 9/20/19.