Gregmal

Never a fan of dilutive offerings... have to imagine they've got a target lined up. $20M+ cash on hand now

Why have cities always been desired? When travel and communication was more difficult and time consuming cities brought people and ideas together in one spot. Population density was a necessity for ideas to spread and serendipitous meetings to take place. Also it allowed an economy of scale for businesses. All of that still happens in cities, but, I don't know if that is still entirely necessary. People now meet and talk online just as easily as off, and with modern shipping the whole country is your marketplace. Cities offer lifestyles. For young, single people, having tons of other young, single people, and no shortage of things to do is quite a draw. You cant really match that anywhere else. City nightlife every night vs what? American Pie style house parties once a week? The big city offices are major draws for companies to recruit top talent. Its almost a suburban right of passage in the neighborhood I grew up in to move to Hoboken or NYC for a few years after graduating college. Typically then, once that is out of the system, its back to the suburbs to start a family.

Long positions can be hedged selling ITM calls at the strike in which you'd Strat buying again. Puts are almost always in the long run, a waste of money. A direct short sale with a long hedge is how I prefer to do it.

Ok but you stated: "From what I've seen generally the bunch that point that "ABC" has missed the opportunity just because the markets went up tend to correlate well with the bunch that claim that nobody could have seen "XYZ" event coming when asked why they don't have any money anymore." " So I was just wondering what examples the correlation was based off.

Buffet is probably waiting for Fed to pull the rug out so that he can go to work. Fine by me. And what leads him or anyone else to believe that they will? People having been saying these same things about the Fed, and the music stopping, and the "stock market doesnt match the economy" for the past decade. For a 90+ year old dude, Im not sure thats a great game to be playing. Or, as we've seen from time to time in the markets, the Fed may in fact do that, and the story doesnt play out the way the pundits think it will. Ive become more and more convinced that the rallying cry of "the markets are overvalued" is just a convenient and pride saving way of admitting "I missed the opportunity". From what I've seen generally the bunch that point that "ABC" has missed the opportunity just because the markets went up tend to correlate well with the bunch that claim that nobody could have seen "XYZ" event coming when asked why they don't have any money anymore. Also, pretty sure Buffett doesn't give a shit about "the game" or how he should play it. Like who? Can you name any? Because once again, we saw most of the guys on top of their game, even some of the more prominent bears buying stocks in March. We saw BX and BAM buying RE hand over fist. We saw the Saudi Wealth fund buying hotels and entertainment companies. And we saw the guy who invented "the game" who "doesnt give a shit" about it now, capitulate at the bottom....

Buffet is probably waiting for Fed to pull the rug out so that he can go to work. Fine by me. And what leads him or anyone else to believe that they will? People having been saying these same things about the Fed, and the music stopping, and the "stock market doesnt match the economy" for the past decade. For a 90+ year old dude, Im not sure thats a great game to be playing. Or, as we've seen from time to time in the markets, the Fed may in fact do that, and the story doesnt play out the way the pundits think it will. Ive become more and more convinced that the rallying cry of "the markets are overvalued" is just a convenient and pride saving way of admitting "I missed the opportunity".

Basically this. You can rationalize holding it for personal accounts or accounts with certain risk profiles. But as an active manager who charges fees it is very hard to justify holding this. Its amazing that folks would criticize Ackman here, when Buffett is the one who's approach and performance, is if anything, the thing to look at and question. I'm not critizising Ackman here. He played it well so far, obviously. I am just surprised he didn't sell Berkshire in March but apparently after the initial strong rally in the broader market if I read this right. Judging by the results it might have given him a better outcome, I just think the risk/reward is pretty unique now - more so than in March. I agree, and still own BRK. Its an interesting way to play a rebound in some of the hardest hit stuff, while having less risk than just outright buying banks and insurance stocks. I just think as a fund manager, you're getting paid to know how to navigate the rubbish and buy directly into those rebound names, which is exactly what Ackman did, almost perfectly, while Buffett was at first chasing his tail with the airlines, and then peeing in his pants. Buffett gets so many free passes though, its crazy. If you had the ability to trade back in time, you still couldn't have done a better job handling Feb/March/April than Bill Ackman.

For those interested, I suggest reading the AR and AGM agenda. All signs point toward an uplisting in the near future.

Basically this. You can rationalize holding it for personal accounts or accounts with certain risk profiles. But as an active manager who charges fees it is very hard to justify holding this. Its amazing that folks would criticize Ackman here, when Buffett is the one who's approach and performance, is if anything, the thing to look at and question.

For one, I dont think he is an idiot. Second, generally speaking I do agree with the bulk of what he is saying. That said, 20 years is between 30-50% of ones useful investing life assuming ages 20/25-60/70 or some variance of that. If you want to look at bonds, who is to say bonds are not in a massive multi decade bubble? Why is it widely assumed that the bond market is accurate but the stock market subject to "valuation" concerns? IMO 0-1% long term interest rates is infinitesimally more egregious that a 20-25x multiple on stocks. My main point, perhaps missing the forest for the trees in an otherwise reasonable article, is the sheer absurdity to anyone making some kind of self aggrandizing, wanton claim about "the market" over a period of time THAT long!

This guy is gloriously arrogant, even for a finance guy. "markets have been wildly overvalued for 20 years"...LOL. No. Just because YOU disagree with the valuation, doesnt make that true. A year? Maybe... Two decades? GTFO

You will NEED stimulus to keep the economy afloat with everything shut down. So sure, its common sense and bipartisan. But when you have a rabid media controlling the narrative and big city governors mandating lockdowns/stay at home orders and refusing to let businesses open...thats where the game is being played. Theres still people apparently out there, shocked, and mentally scarred by headlines like "worst "insert data" since the Depression". Well, no shit. Thats what happens when you more or less make it illegal for businesses to operate and people to go out. While you're at it, shut the power line to your house. Then try to turn the light on. Then go be all exasperated and devastated because, "OMG we've never not had ALL the light switches in the house not working like this!". The solution is pretty straight forward and to the degree its not being implemented one can only deduce its deliberate. Its actually quite funny, these are the same folks who were whining about locking people in cages....now we're basically doing the same to law abiding citizens.

Its all intentional. As I said in the other thread, the left has gotten so mad and full of TDS that they are full throttle trying to destroy the economy just to get rid of Trump. Of course, most of them are in cash and bonds...preserving "their" interests while doing everything they can to destroy those of the American people, and further, making a full wave of new generations likely dependent upon the government. Its disgusting

Did ticket prices in China go up after reopening? that might be a clue. If they significantly raise ticket prices, I think there is going to be a lot of backlash and brand damage. My sense, and what seems too be the thought process is that the demand is the feeler. If demand is sky high as it was when China reopened you have a runway to get there. Of course they will be sensitive about how they go about it, but it's most likely going to be a bidding war for rich folks as long as capacity is limited. Same for concerts and other high demand events. Imagine a Yankee ticket right now? The businesses will be sneaky about how they get to higher prices, but the ones Ive looked into all seem to be aware of the supply/demand imbalance. And oh yea, the millions/billions they've just lost while shut down. https://www.businessinsider.com/disneyland-reopening-shanghai-china-pictures-2020-5 Shanghai sold out on less than a half hour.

Was speaking to an analyst the other day and while talking about other names the subject of Disney came up. It seems all but certain that Disney ticket prices upon re-opening(or shortly thereafter) will be astronomical given the pent up demand seen in other places where they've re-opened. Same applies to most likely any other event/experience oriented ticket. I'd imagine this definitely helps short term, but it may also have lasting long term benefits.

Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You haven't seen the "she s a pump and dump artist" bs? Im sure you can guess from who...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/ark-invest-ceo-why-weve-sold-tesla-despite-our-long-term-bull-case.html This lady continues to make the "other pros" look terrible. As she continues to cash out, eventually the wins pile up and the critics have nothing to do outside of woefully excuse their busted shorts, or make excuses for why they missed it. Girl knows how to trade too. “We had an up year, and I think one of the important reasons is we trade around the volatility,” Wood said. “If Tesla is going down because some hedge fund or negative analyst is saying something that seems really awful, we have a pretty good handle given our research on that stock that we’ll be buying into it unless it’s a big surprise to us.” “On the contrary, when we feel like analysts are hyperventilating about a stock — and including Tesla, when there were takeover rumors of it helped by Elon Musk himself — we naturally just take profits because we know we’re going to get another opportunity associated with controversy to buy the stock lower,” she said.

High end doesnt really matter if you dont differentiate your brand. Whereas a handbag maker can have a following, being a seller of generally expensive stuff isn't unique. Is there any real difference between Neiman Marcus, Lord & Taylor, Nordstrom, etc? They sell the same things as everyone else in their competitive peer group(and often competitors within the same damn mall) so what reason to people have to go there? I'd probably even think it worth exploring how Barnes & Noble was able to transition some of its stores into cafe style libraries, hold social events, host clubs, etc, with reasonable success. Again, improving the customer experience.

If there is anyone who probably doesnt need to wear a mask, its probably folks who have secret service/security teams guarding them 24/7 as it is practically impossible for social distancing not to occur, especially if there is an effort to avoid shaking hands, which I dont know if that is the case or not. Either way, if some in the WH are doing this, great thats their choice. But its not really political and only becomes political because people try to label it as such. I live in a moderately right leaning but generally even split town. Everyone wears masks. The other day I stopped at a fish and hunting store to pick up some slip bobber ties. Place was run by the most red neck die hard Republicans you'll ever meet. Pretty sure the business was open despite not being essential. Whatever. Both husky pickup driving dudes had masks on. Trump can do something, and it doesnt have to automatically become standard for lefties to brandish that behavior as political and representative of "his base". I mean, infidelity certainly isn't exclusive to Republicans... Although I do agree, must be extremely psychologically difficult for true narcissists to wear the mask.

I'm not really sure how masks are a political issue. Its common sense, and low risk to just wear one. Given whats going on, its stupid not to, at least right now. What part of this involves politics?

One angle to look at; if the economy doesnt start improving, and Trump loses the election, Republicans also probably lose the Senate, you're going to see A LOT. of money get sent to everyday people. You'll also probably see higher corporate taxes too. But the consumer will be fine.

My best guess at Wal Mart is its cheap as dirt, and basically a one stop shop for everything which is valuable from a time standpoint. Whole Foods is probably a good example of the anti Walmart. But they have all the other things mentioned above.

What's the difference between all of those? Whats the difference between a B/C mall and an A? Location would be a good guess, but thats not it. Its all about experience and offering a unique proposition to the customer. Its the same reason why Chic Fil a is thriving. How is it that the majority of QSR joints still haven't figured out that young, cheerful, exuberant employees drive customer satisfaction? One of the few that has sells crap burritos to a cult following...CMG, and is currently killing it. Put all those retailers side by side and the thriving all have unique offerings...great value, beautiful stores, vibrant and cheerful employees(who are well paid); then look at the have nots...disgruntled minimum wage workers, dark run down stores, overpriced junk stuffed in your face, and with regard to Abercrombie, douchebag teenagers with bad attitudes. Dont think so? Well why do mall based Apple stores continuously kill it? People just as easily can go buy their iPhones online? Experience. The idea that people are naturally social wasn't something I understood for a while. But when you look at things with that premise, you can see a way for a B&M retailer to take on Amazon. Some figured it out, others didn't. But Amazon cant compete with "its fun to go to the store"...unless of course, if they buy JC Penney. I dont know if you've ever been to Woodbury Commons, but little else, especially for a family, can compete with walking around a beautiful park like complex, where everyone from the kids to the wife can duck into a store that has something of interest to them, then dine at any number of excellent restaurants, while casually taking in a gorgeous 75 degree sunny day. Now compare this to your average Tanger Outlet.

That's not it, but you're about to reveal what your game is. And there it is, that's your game. You make personal attacks instead of debate points. Smear. A day later.... Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me. Trump is WAY WAY WAY more playing identity politics than Obama ever did, but somehow it doesn't seem to bother these guys. I wonder why? Gregmal repeatedly says that Obama created identity politics, but the Civil Rights movement and Feminists movements? Never heard of them. Remember Gregmal said he doesn't want a Trans person using the bathroom his daughter uses. Obama struck a nerve with GregMal, how dare Obama call him out for intolerance? That's what he is all about. LOL. Ideologically so hypocritical and warped, one day it s baselessly "your game is personal insults" and then the next its....wait for it... lob personal insults. This is the left. Like the previous poster said,

Balanced and pushbacks have nothing to do with it. Things are either true and supported by evidence, or false and not supported by evidence. They make logical sense, or they don't. Reality isn't up to a vote or a committee and not every side is automatically equally to blame for everything all the time, not all scandals are equally bad, etc. If Trump's a corrupt narcissistic sociopath who's not very sharp and way over his head, the "balanced" thing to do is point it out, not to go 'well, he's half good and half bad like everybody else". Whether we agree on this or not, this is an opinion. Making it your personal duty to gather every possible piece of information or some random jerk offs opinion which supports something that YOU believe, and scream it from the mountaintops is only indicative of a bias. Pretty easy exercise to determine a bias or agenda. Take a subject. Then find out how a company/person is covering it. Break down coverage into 2 categories. Opinion and Fact. Then 3 sub categories. Positive, Neutral, Negative. From there you will over time find a bias. Where do your Trump related postings fall?