Liberty

CHTR Q1: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9Mzc2MjU5fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1&cb=636293131780142848

I agree merkhet. But I don't think many of the company's critics are looking at it like that.

Agreed. I've explained earlier why I think it's a terrible short, and so far that has certainly been the case. People have been calling this a slam dunk short since before IPO. So much for that.

I think the issue is that because he is moving fast and aiming big that it's risky. It's possible to believe that Musk is doing great things and yet also believe that the big hairy audacious goals make this a poor investment choice. I haven't recommended it as an investment. But I think it's bad thinking to just say "they're not making profits, they're raising money, hence they're destroying value and are assured to fail". I'm fine with people not liking the stock, but I think many are using flawed thinking to get there, regardless of wether the shorts or longs end up making the most on this one.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/entertainment/los-angeles-celeb-homes-compare-toronto-1.4082052

Serious question: Would Tesla be losing money if it wasn't building the largest factory in the world at the same time as investing in a new EV that will be produced in an order of magnitude larger volume as their current ones (Model 3) at the same time as developing the Model Y (small electric SUV), an electric semi truck (unveiling next fall, probably), at the same time as doubling the number of supercharging stations worldwide this year (which went from zero to thousands in a few years), at the same time as developing an electric pickup truck, at the same time as developing self-driving software, at the same time as planning development for 2 to 4 new gigafactories, at the same time a continuously improving Model S and X rather than milking them for 4-6 years like other automakers do with their cars, at the same time as running a stationary battery storage energy firm, at the same time as developing modern glass solar roofs that look normal from street level, etc? I'm kind of amazed they're not burning more cash than they are with everything that they're working on. Google is spending a lot on its moonshots projects with a lot less to show for it.. Tesla will never be as good a business as Amazon (Musk's primary goal is to accelerate the production and consumption of clean energy, not to make the most money or reduce his risk -- it'd have been easier and safer to make money for him in other industries), but the principle of massive investments for the future hiding current economics is similar. It's blind to think that Amazon couldn't make more money if it decided to target 10% growth rather than 20-30%, and likewise for Tesla, that they couldn't earn a reasonable profit margins on their very nice cars that customers love and are ready to pay a premium for. It could still all blow up because Musk has a gigantic capacity for risk and is moving super fast. They could do everything much slower and get where they're going in 25 years rather than 10 and that'd be a much more conservative approach, but that wouldn't be coherent with the goal of moving the whole EV field along as fast as possible. Personally, I don't give a crap about his financials, I just hope he doesn't blow so he can keep making cool tech and hold the old company's feet to the fire, making them do things with a lot more urgency than they would otherwise.

Greg Maffei talked a bit about CHTR this morning: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000614682&play=1

Mentions the Tesla semi truck (among other things), says it'll be for long-range, heavy loads, and that it can out-torque any diesel. Says in a tug-of-war, it could pull a diesel... uphill. And will have autonomous driving features too, of course.

Here's just the landing from a good angle: And check the stages separating and the lower stage turning around, from the ground camera! Some really nice photos here:

SpaceX just landed a falcon 9 this morning after launching a spy sat. This time the landing was on the ground, which I saw live on my phone (what a time to be alive!). Musk also recently did a TED talk where he talks about his Boring Company:

Indeed. Thanks for bumping this up, I think too often we never get to learn how things turn out. I wish all the pundits making predictions were somehow tracked and their past predictions were periodically revisited to see how they turned out.

Don't read into his disappointment or any falling out that he's had with Schroeder that it's a bad book. I think she dug deep into some of the issues that Buffett had with his mother, and that might not have been to his pleasing, but it doesn't mean that it isn't true and worthwhile information to help better understand where Buffett comes form.

It's great. It's not just a business biography, but also a personal biography, so as long as you're fine with that and aren't just expecting an updated version of the Lowenstein book, I think you'll like it.

Well, that was fun. I ended up meeting about 15 people who either are on Twitter or on this forum that I had never met before. The AGM was very instructive, IMO. Great chance to hear all of the division heads answer questions for a couple hours, get a feel for the depth of the bench and how they're thinking about things and what they're focused on. I was a bit early to see if I could meet people before the AGM, so I ended up sitting in the front row in the center. The whole trip ended up costing me: C$100 train C$100 AirBNB C$11 Chipotle Mexican Grill (had never tried it before. I liked it) C$13 for a scotch at the pub (Highland Park 12, for those curious -- I ended up spilling most of it on myself because I'm used to Glencairn Glasses, so when I brought it up distractedly the angle was all wrong... the barman had pity on me and gave me a refill) So C$226 isn't bad. Most people probably spend more on a hotel room, and my AirBNB was 2 blocks from the AGM (and right next to the CN Tower downtown). Quite a view: Here's the view from the conference room at McCarthy Tetrault (CSU's law firm) where the AGM took place:

Q1 results: http://www.csisoftware.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/SR_Q1_2017.pdf

By my count 9 or 10 people showed up, which is more than I expected. Thanks for coming! I had a great time. (we had people who flew in all the way from Scandinavia, Europe, and two New York hedge fund gentlemen who joined us later in the evening). Who knows, maybe I'll try to come to toronto again next year and try to make this into a yearly thing... :D

Just got to my airbnb room. Leaving soon for the C'est What. Hopefully someone shows up :D

Mindblowing:

Also says the loan is from HOOPP pension fund.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-27/home-capital-secures-loan-and-hires-rbc-bmo-for-strategic-plan

I wonder how many indices might be forced sellers of HCG for various technical reasons. For example, some can't hold a stock under $5, some only have dividend stocks (so if they cut it..), so have market cap limitations like this: https://twitter.com/Keubiko/status/857400696806678529

When I want to buy something online, I start at Amazon, not Google. How about others here?

If some of you CSU ppl want to say "hi" tomorrow or at the AGM, I posted some details here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/i'll-be-in-toronto-tomorrow-night-(april-27)/

Today I'll be in Toronto (for CSU AGM...). Planning to have drinks with fintwit and CoBF people who want to join me at the C'est What pub (exact time tbd, prob around ~7-8PM until maybe 11-12). I'll try to post on my Twitter and here when I have the exact time (I'm walking from the train station to my AirBNB, then getting something to eat, and then I'll go to the pub). Details: If you want to drop by and say "hi", feel free. It's totally ad hoc. It's just so rare that I go to toronto that I figured I'd try to meet some online people. I'll also be at the CSU AGM the next day. I'll be the only guy not wearing a suit (I don't own a suit ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ). Cheers!

Not after I looked at the components of that organic growth. Kind of the whole point of Constellation is that they buy companies that have sticky revenues and high returns on capital, but with limited growth prospects, and then reinvest the cash flows into similar acquisitions. No one should ever expect much organic growth here. They're also often dropping lots of low-margin revenue from new acquisitions (services revenues, or trading off license revenue for maintenance revenue) to focus on the high-margin, sticky stuff. So at first it can seem like growth is slowing, but they're just dropping the low-ROIC stuff. They've also said that recently they bought some large businesses in real estate and healthcare that are shrinking. They still do these deals if they meet their hurdles, so they get good IRRs, but it impacts organic growth. Also, FX has been a headwind recently, reducing growth by 6% last year, making things look worse than they seem. It's useful to look at maintenance revenue organic growth too, not just overall organic, since they optimize for maintenance revenue since that's the valuable stuff (high-margin, sticky) and aren't shy about dropping some of the other revenue if it doesn't meet their ROIC targets.

Google seems to be underinvesting in that area... not sure why. If I find a product on Google Shopping why can't I buy it easily with Google Checkout? They do a lot of cool things but it doesn't always feel like they have a unified strategy... ideas are launched and if they don't catch quick traction they just get forgotten. Seems like they'd be able to get small online retailers to sign up for Google Checkout (or just partner with Paypal) in an effort to hold (or gain) market share for those retailers vs Amazon. I bought something yesterday through Google Shopping and it's such a pain to order through a new store. Google doesn't have a retailer's DNA, and they don't have the frugal culture of Amazon and Costco and Walmart, so it's hard for them to effectively compete there, IMO. They've been at it forever (I remember the first "Froogle") and don't seem to be making nearly as much progress as other more focused players.