Liberty

Good talk by Juliaf Galef about applied rationality. Useful stuff for all investors, obviously: (11 minutes long, but you can listen to it at 1.5x on youtube (settings gear)) If you like this, there's also a good podcast she was on here: http://theknowledgeproject.libsyn.com/julia-galef-on-becoming-more-rational-changing-minds-and-filtering-information

Amazon as a starting point for product searches is definitely a growing threat. There was a graph floating around recently (anyone has it?) showing how the % of people who start at Amazon rather than Google has been going up pretty rapidly over the years. Amazon also has a growing advertising business, selling some spots on their homepage (ie. competing products paying to have a display ad on a competitor's page).

This reminds me of this interesting post that I read recently about the impact of indexes/passive investing on how markets price equity risk premiums and the impact on the perceived riskiness of these assets: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/04/diversification-adaptation-and-stock-market-valuation/ It's long, but worth the read, like everything on that site.

So 95%+ of the US will never retire, right? btw, you subtly imply that I'm advocating retiring on not enough money. I don't. I just say that there's such a thing as bad tradeoffs possible between time and money, and in the real world, a lot of people find out that they don't spend nearly as much as they expected in retirement because there's a difference between making up numbers on paper and listening to what the financial industry tells you you need and actually living life, and so it's useful to learn from people's real experiences (f.ex. people in their 30s and 40s forget that housing and kids don't cost the same a few decades later). If you think the point of money is buying stuff, and that more stuff is better, then you'll never have enough. But if you think the point of money is buying freedom/independence, then you can realize that this is pretty cheap and that there's such a thing as "enough". By all means save up 3m or 5m or 10m before you retire just to be extra safe while you take big risks daily investing in individual equities, it's your life. But it is about being bed ridden: If you wait until you are old and sick to retire, you might regret all these 9 to 5 decades that'll end up just ensuring that you die very rich with lots of toys...

It's very possible in such situations to run the company for the founders and not the other shareholders, since their interests can be different. They're multi-billionaires and more dividends or buybacks or more focus on ROIC won't materially change their lives, but it could make a difference to other shareholders. Not saying they are or aren't, just pointing out that this can be the dynamic with large controlling shareholders.

I'm not telling people to do anything. I'm telling them to take into account BOTH sides, because there are risks on both. One side is very visible and people like you constantly tell them about it, but the other side is mostly invisible and almost nobody ever talks about it. So take into account both sides when you calibrate your life plans, but do your own thinking.

So every retiree in the US is a multi-millionaire? I hadn't realized that.

http://www.680news.com/2017/04/24/buyers-remorse-millennial-homeowners-house-poor-want-sell/ "Buyer's remorse: Most millennial homeowners are house poor and want to sell"

It's interesting how people who are willing to handle a lot of risk by investing in individual stocks that they hand-pick are so risk-averse in other aspects of their lives. ie. It's fine putting your net worth in a dozen companies' stocks, but dog forbid you might have to cut back a bit on your three luxury vacations per year when you're old and wrinkly. So in the meantime you'll work a couple decades longer - years' you'll never get back - to make sure to avoid even the possibility of even having to cut back later on, sacrificing the present for some unknown future. Expenses are not fixed. You can have as much fun taking a vacation close to home as on the other side of the planet. A normal car will get you around just as well as a luxury vehicle. Happiness doesn't come from spending money past a pretty low level, which might be counter-intuitive because so many have a vested interest in selling that idea, but it's the truth; happiness comes from having meaningful things to do, good relationships with friends, kids, and romantic partners, health, challenges, art, helping others, control over your time, low stress environments, learning new things, etc. This video explains it well: That's how I view things, anyway. Each had to find out for themselves, but I feel too many just follow the path well travelled without ever questioning if it's actually a good one.

The financial industry has a big incentive in convincing people that they need a lot more than they actually do. Just more fees for them.

It's looking like they're having to pretty rapidly increase their GIC rates to attract capital, which has to compress their net interest margin: Via:

I'm not saying that it's not risky or is risky. I'm saying: Look at the risk on the other side. Sins of commission always get more attention than sins of omission, but they can be just as meaningful to someone's life. Sometimes more.

Just don't forget to put a negative value on saving too much for retirement, spending years of your life that you'll never get back piling on money that won't make you happier than the opportunity cost. To invert, if you're not putting a value on your time and a risk on waiting too long to retire, then why not wait to have $50m or whatever? And why not only spend 1% a year to be really really certain. %1 of $50m is still $500k/year, that should be enough to buy the basics of life, I think.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/home-capital-founder-soloway-to-step-down-after-osc-allegations Soloway out at HCG. Still looking for a CEO and a CFO...

Plan on doubling Supercharger network in 2017, larger charging points to accommodate "several dozen" EVs charging at the same time: https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/charging-our-priority

Home Capital Founder Soloway to Step Down After OSC Allegations https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/home-capital-founder-soloway-to-step-down-after-osc-allegations

Cranking GICs rates sign of financing crunch? https://twitter.com/Keubiko/status/856244698075234304

This is my preferred approach: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/

I'm reading that CIBC has also stopped offering their GICs, but haven't confirmed yet.

Same. I have an earlier edition and it's gigantic.

Interesting piece by James Hamilton, Amazon’s AWS Architect, on how many data-centers are needed worldwide (with a dig at ORCL in the intro): http://perspectives.mvdirona.com/2017/04/how-many-data-centers-needed-world-wide/

An interesting take on how to separate bubbles from mere overvaluation (h/t @ac_eco): http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/how-to-identify-bubbles#

Further discussion of Facebook on the latest episode of Exponent: http://exponent.fm/episode-111-lamentation-not-condemnation/

You can typically find that pretty easily by just checking the Wikipedia page for a vehicle. LG Chem does a lot of the cells for GM, Panasonic works with Tesla. One thing that many people misunderstand, though, is the difference between the battery cells and the battery pack. How the cells are packaged (density, how thermals are managed, the software that manages charging and discharging, etc) is one way to add value. As Samsung has discovered with the Note 7, what you do with the cells matters a lot.