Spekulatius

So in other words, they are just like the rest of us. I'm happy you posted it, Spekulatius, so I didn't have to. You are welcome, John. I cringe when people want to outsmart the BAM guys by investing in some of their satellite vehicles like TOO, BPY, GGP and think they got a better deal. If you really like what they are doing, there is absolutely no reason to invest in anything but BAM. Everything else is asking to get bend over and sooner or later....

I would have thought that recent events have impaired NYC status as a safe haven.

So in other words, they are just like the rest of us.

I was a bit surprised to learn that Jamie diamond doesn’t expect economic restart until June. I expect to see some action already in Mid/late May. It’s going to be a step by step process anyways and not a red ribbon cutting ceremony where the US is declare open for business. JPM CC reserve build is roughly 10% of the outstanding balance. I wonder how mi h some junkier CC lenders need to reserve. There is a lot riding on a successful restart and rapid recovery obviously. Quite frankly, I expect that most banks might cut their dividend for the 2nd quarter if the situation at that point is still unclear. JPM CC reserve will go up in the next quarter as their current reserve models 10% UE rate. They stated their best estimate is 20% UE rate Yeah, the old heuristic that CC loss rate ~ unemployment rate (for better credit) suggests so

Florida has been producing boom and busts in RE since the 1920’s. Main industries are tourism and especially the theme park and cruises will take a big hit. Plenty of land. I would take my chances elsewhere, like a Rocky Mountain state.

I was a bit surprised to learn that Jamie Dimon doesn’t expect economic restart until June. I expect to see some action already in Mid/late May. It’s going to be a step by step process anyways and not a red ribbon cutting ceremony where the US is declare open for business. JPM CC reserve build is roughly 10% of the outstanding balance. I wonder how much some junkier CC lenders need to reserve. There is a lot riding on a successful restart and rapid recovery obviously. Quite frankly, I expect that most banks might cut their dividend for the 2nd quarter if the situation at that point is still unclear.

I don’t have a position , but I would need to swallow crazy pills before pushing the buy button for $CVNA at $81.5

Do we actually still do trace and test here anymore? Seems like we have pretty much given up on tracing. I have a buddy in Germany who told me some of his relatives tested positive and they did trace down contacts during the last two weeks prior to the positive test results. So at least in Germany, they still attempt tracing.

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity. In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc... Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about? He is also wrong on hospitals not separating COVID from regular patients and likely many other details. Too many hobby doctors and epidemiologists now growing out of the woodwork. (Says the guy going down these rabbit holes himself.)

^ What the BOJ is doing is Nuts. It feels like a snake trying to eat it’s own tail. Other bugs are Italy, Greece(again) Spain, Brazil and perhaps other emerging markets, perhaps even Saudi Arabia (regime change ).

Ha ha ha. It burns me up when I see long write ups for WWE that don't grapple (pun intended) with the long and consistent history of poor capital allocation decisions. WWE was hugely popular in the late 90s and early 2000s. I don't think it's a coincidence that those are the same years that it most aggressively spent money on all sorts of hare brained schemes. If excess cash is available, Vince McMahon just can't help but to spend it on (1) things he is interested in (bodybuilding, football) and/or (2) things he views as being glamorous (movies, Times Square, Las Vegas casinos). Money isn’t everything. ;D

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks. I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days. We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait. Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment. In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest. The lead time that AMZN is now giving is vastly conservative. I ordered a item late last week where they gave me a May 4 delivery date and it arrived April 12 (Sunday!) actually. Similar for other items.

WHO declared a pandemic on March 11(pretty late). I would like to know more about the cash moved upstream (from this asset pool that BAM provided lending for) before reserving judgement about the merit of this lawsuit. Generally I agree that BAM just behaves like other private equity guys.

My theory for the reason for selling his airline stocks is that it makes it easier for the airlines to get good bailout conditions . Otherwise this would get politically charged as supporting a billionaire with $128B in dry powder taxpayers money. It looks better if you are poor and in clothed in a cheap suit rather than look like someone who has a rich uncle. WEB clearly doesn’t want to go all in with the airlines and I think the recent events have led his to change his view on the industry again.

“We don’t believe in loans we believe in grants”. It will be interesting to see what they come up for the airlines.

Perhaps more doctor visits, checkups?

SF has this guy playing. Marin county has “houling” at 8PM

I know you guys hate him, but this is satire you realize, right? The worst part is that it's becoming harder and harder to tell ;D Exactly. Should move this in the jokes section.

This gets better and better. Navarro who felt qualified to contradict Fauci, because has a PhD in “Social studies” has his degree from the defunct “Trump University”. https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/peter-navarros-phd-revealed-to-be-from-trump-university?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned To earn his Ph.D., Navarro wrote a doctoral dissertation entitled “Donald J. Trump: Genius or Savior?” LOL

He can’t open up the US because he never closed it in the first place. It’s funny how this works. I do think come May many states will gradually reopen.

Go get it, imo.

Sometimes the realty doesn’t match the advertisement. Or perhaps it was changed to: “ We live free, you may die”

LOL, the one of LC’s jokes sounds British.

Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them. Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts. Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.

Well said. I have little doubt that we are going back to normal , but the timeline and foremost the amount of effort to get there are pretty much in doubt and in general seem to be underestimated. Also, it won’t just happen by itself either, actions like you mentioned need to be started right now with great determination and they will need like any war a lot of resources..