Gregmal

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/feds-investigating-deadly-friday-tesla-crash-in-florida/ And this kind of stuff is why autonomous driving won't get adopted nearly as fast as people think. Imagine seeing this? Elon's death machine drives straight through the under belly of an 18 wheeler, most likely decapitating its passengers, and then STILL driving another quarter mile before stopping?? Although I'm sure the company will try to spin this. Maybe its part of a newly featured, auto-convertible mode?

Yea I don't go to Target often, however the one I do visit anchors a Washington Prime owned strip, along with a Dicks. It is very well maintained, was recently renovated. If anything, it looks more like an Apple store than a Sears or JCP. I've always thought Target would make a nice acquisition for Amazon.

That Wilbur Ross thing is disgusting. I know a few people like that. It is a sickness. A mental disorder being that petty and unaware of general context.

Good question, but . . . 1. I think you are expressing a personal bias. 2. I have the same bias. 3. If this board is full of value investors, the board is probably full of people with the same bias. 4. If you're NOT trying to be logical and cheap with your investments, go somewhere else. COB&F is probably the wrong board for you. :D Not everyone thinks or behaves like we do. Whether any of this is relevant to the company's future is a different question. I agree, but... This board is probably more concentrated in terms of people who have the means to just grab the big yellow box of Cheerios without thinking twice, without noticing the impact on their bank accounts. Where does one draw the line? It depends on income. Maybe a $499 product people here wouldn't touch if the same thing was available at $339 elsewhere. But are there really people making six figures who deprive themselves something over $1? If you look at the macro environment, I think the convergence of many headline social issues has squeezed these types of businesses. Wage growth hasn't been tremendous. Cost of living has crept up. So I dont think its a crazy assumption to make, that the consumer today is more price conscious, not to mention, has more options than ever before, and this directly impacts businesses like KHC. The every day, normal person, living on the average wage, is not going to become an incrementally larger buyer here, ever again, unless prices fall significantly. Rather, it will be the opposite. In fact I'd even argue one of the biggest selling points here, much like with Sears back in the day, was influenced by your parents, or friends, or colleagues behavior. How many people shopped at Sears in the 80's and 90's because every time Dad needed something he ran to Sears? In 2010, no one shopped at Sears because, no one shops at Sears. I remember in the 90's, every restaurant had Heinz Ketchup. So did every refrigerator. I dont know, but I'd gander that isn't the case anymore, and these trends, at least from what I've seen, are nearly impossible to reverse. Frankly these businesses, same goes for Campbells and Coca Cola, remind me of old school retailers like JCP, Macy's, and SHLD. The underlying issues that plagued those businesses, have been, and continue to, plague these businesses. Melting ice cube, secular decline, whatever you want to call it; bad investment idea is what I tend to lean towards right now.

I've personally never seen the appeal to these type of companies. Yes, they have iconic brands. Yes, they have some products that every American uses. But the bottom line is that over the past couple decades the gap between no label brands and these type of brands has all but disappeared. One could literally retire on the money saved from switching from Kraft/Heinz type products to generic. The only way to combat the price discrepancy, is to lower prices. Not good for shareholders. I love Kraft BBQ sauce. But I only buy it when its on sale and at the same prices or even cheaper than the generic. Normal price is about $2.39. Sale is 4 for 5. Generic is between $1.25-$1.49. I see the same shit going on with pretty much everything in the grocery store, especially cereal. Who is paying $4.49 for a box of Cheerios anymore when the store brand is twice the size and $2.79? The times are changing.

Could be a few regulatory hurdles to that. At a certain point, anti-combines becomes an issue. I would think the better way to do that would be to get in the ear of a portfolio company and play activist. Get them to make a bid or try to acquire another airline you like. Then give it a little and see how they integrate. Then make a bid for the combined entity.

He owns just under 10% of DAL, AAL, LUV. If I recall during the CNBC interview this week, part of his answer to why he wasn't buying in Q4 was that in the (unnamed) stocks he was interested in adding, he didn't want to trigger 10% I dont think I believe the rumor on LUV, but yes, I'd prefer he just stick with owning those than do something drastic.

Yea I definitely wouldn't be thrilled if he blew half the cash hoard on an airline. A business he once deemed uninvestable he is now going to foray into, making one of BRK's largest investments ever? Sounds like an unnecessary risk. I mean as it stands, airlines are currently so cheap that I dont see how buying one outright is a better choice than simply investing across the board in a few different ones. If his new found bullishness is correct, there will be tons of money to be made going forward given the single digit pe multiples these trade at. And if not, being in the public markets gives you the liquidity to get out if things go sour. Not the case with owning an entire company...

He probably just needs more money. Deposits=Free loans...

Elon Tusk! https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-tusk-tesla-ceo-changes-twitter-handle-says-there-will-be-news-on-thursday-2019-02-27

Yup, another pro who froze up when it mattered most.

I only have a tracker position here so I dont forget about it, but have dug into the storage space previously and think that on the surface these guys get "it", but also have certain alignment of interests that make this a difficult investment for most people. It is absolutely a low maintenance, buy and put away type of investment. With regard to buy vs build, I've been told by people at other companies that target acquisitions you look at 5.50-6% cap rates with room to either build out or bump occupancy rates. Anything over 6% and you really have to be careful and start looking for red flags. There are actually decent barriers to entry here depending upon where you look. Certain markets it can be very difficult to get proper approvals to build. Often(as Johnny pointed out) it's about a 5 year process so if you can get a good feel for certain markets you have windows to move. Often the most value is in secondary markets or fringe markets just outside larger msas. Building just seems quite capital intensive and also, thinking about it logically, if you're there and able to build, generally so is the next guy. You want to be in areas where it's hard to get in and a nuisance to build. I have always been under the impression(and the statistics I've seen quoted indicate it too) that the self storage business is predominantly fragmented mom and pop stuff. Maybe 25-30% are institutionally owned. So again, I'd think buying would be more optimal. Goal would be to find something mom and pop owned, somewhat, but not entirely neglected, and then just pump some money into fixing up the appearance and advertising and in 12-18 months you can take 60-70% occupancies and get them in the mid to high 80's. IMO a superior option to taking 5 years trying to turn dirt into cash.

Solid report. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3437429-palo-alto-plus-3_8-percent-q2-beats-1b-buyback I get that SBC is how things get done is that world, but why in the heck are the authorizing a share repurchase here? Insanity. Probably the last thing a company of this profile should be doing is buying its own shares.

Lol now he’s on tv saying he s not a buyer of AAPL here, but would be if it got cheaper!!! First, it was cheaper, much cheaper not too long ago, and he did nothing. Second, wasn’t he buying like a drunken sailor a couple quarters ago? At much higher prices? WTF happened to Warren Buffett?

I am hardly a BRK expert, but these where also kind of my feelings as well. IMO the Buffett we've seen the last half decade is hardly the man we all admire. We've seen a lot of high profile investors get eaten alive by what's occurred with the markets since the GFC, so maybe WEB is no different. It's just odd seeing it from him. Especially since he more or less shot the lights out and was vintage Buffett during the GFC. IDK, the dude is nearly 90, beat cancer, and probably has others areas of his life he neglected over the decades that maybe he feels deserve more of his time now. But to me, despite all of his wisdom, he is no longer a must follow investor and he is making obvious mistakes, not to mention, as you stated, doing things he never used to.

I think if this is the case its even more troubling. Translated, this essentially means he is putting his legacy and the "exclamation mark" on his career ahead of easy and obvious, not to mention more traditional method of creating per share value. On one hand he thinks valuations are excessive(which could also just be an excuse for making some mistakes), yet if this is the case what is the need for all the cash if you think your own equity is cheap? Further, I saw a comment here or maybe in the annual letter thread about "he's shouldn't just buy the dip on every 15% correction". Well, first off, if you know the value of what you are buying, this is irrelevant, and second, how many 15% corrections have we had in the past two decades? And where would one be had they bought BRK or any other number of market proxies during those drawdowns? Just seems like an awful lot of excuse making. Are shareholders really comfortable with this guy, and his track record of late, spending $50B-$75B on an acquisition???

Yea I initiated a small position in BRK in early January but the more closely I follow, the less impressed I am, within the context of ignoring that it's Warren F**** Buffett's company. Not only has the equity performance been suspect, but many, with KHC being the most recent example, fall victim to the same type of mistakes. Now, to me, the lack of real buybacks is kind of icing on top. The only justification people seemed to have for Warren's lack of a spending spree in December was that maybe he was binging on buybacks... Now it's confirmed he basically just froze up and did nothing, moreso resembling an inexperienced retail investor rather than the old school Oracle of Omaha.

I disagree. Wasn’t the point a few years ago for Brk to bring in 3G and do exactly what you are suggesting? It failed then and it will fail again- because the majority of their brands are relics. brk seems to like brands and moats, which khc has. also likes buying on discount. I think it would be easy enough to tweak all of these brands to make them more "relevant" or "cool". except ketchup, leave that alone. just as KO is buying up new competitive products, seems to me so can khc. I agree. I have high hopes for the new Kraft canned avocado toast product launch. Dump the toast and you got a winner. Do you know how many avocadoes I have to dispose of each year because I can never get the timing right? Canned avocado is the future. LOL so true.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3436152-autonation-ceo-unloads-tesla AN down 4% on disappointing EARNINGS. TSLA up 1% because it finally started selling cars... LOL. Pretty much sums it up. Tesla is irrelevant as a comp here, imo. They missed the revenue number for new car sales by a mile. I think it was obvious that something was wrong with AN’s business execution based on to the massive management changes. SAH in the same business had issues as well while PAG did relatively well. In a different sector, it seems that we are seeing similar things (significant leadership changes, lack of execution in a tougher environment) with FDX. My comment was somewhat tongue in cheek. AN and Tesla dont really have anything in common but it does more so highlight how low the bar is for Tesla bulls. "Oh they're making deliveries!!! Bid up the stock some more". In regards to the narrative though, I do agree with your observations and think it's awesome. The current market, sans Tesla, seems to be rewarding companies who execute, and punishing those that dont. Not coincidentally this starts occurring as the free money dries up with changes in Fed policy.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3436152-autonation-ceo-unloads-tesla AN down 4% on disappointing EARNINGS. TSLA up 1% because it finally started selling cars... LOL. Pretty much sums it up.

This is an attractive business. I remember quite a while ago, being part of a wedding and being amazed by the economics of the rental game. A standard tux setup runs $200-250. To the shop it cost $350-450 to buy said outfit. There's a million little add ons that can easily take that higher. You generally have to put down cash deposits as well. You typically get at least 7-8 rentals out of a suit. If the client damages or ruins it, you charge them. So the above got me interested in the two dominant companies(who are now one) but the debt levels IMO were concerning. At the end of the day I am a pass on this because high debt levels and retail are a cocktail I'm not fond of.

Further evidence that Warren isn't a .400 hitter anymore.

Monster https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17420514-trade-desk-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-year-2018-financial-results

The above is pretty much what the founding fathers had envisioned. Federal government has gotten WAYYY too powerful. States should be able to control their own "stuff". At the end of the day we'd probably have more harmony because people would move to regions and areas that suite their interests.

LOL I wish. Sold at open after it became evident my breakout gamble had to wait for another day. Numbers didn't look terrible, but for me this was strictly a follow the tape trade.