Gregmal

Bought some BKEP premarket on the big announcement. Swapping this in for the preferred shares I own and will sell during the day. Transformation is taking shape! Whoa, whoa, whoa....buying the preferred at a big discount to par, selling at a premium to par and then swapping it into the much de-risked common before it makes a 50% move inside 4 months? Gregmal, how do you do it? Timing stocks is apparently impossible! Jokes aside, I bought some more of this yesterday. New management is kicking ass and taking names. Now pureplay infrastructure terminaling co with growth outlook. This along with AP stand to be massive winners from Joseph R. Biden's(hopefully the usual suspects arent offended by my mentioning of that name) eventual infrastructure push.

What?!?! Mark doing the Sidoti Conference? (term of endearment from Training Day edited out so the offense takers arent offended) We've come a long way!

Not totally unexpected. Makes sense too. I sold out of this around $18 about a month ago when all the pros(hopefully not any of Read The Audiobooks friends!) where getting margin calls on all the squeeze stuff. Interestingly many of the Liberty entities as well as the other MSG entities where getting blasted(basically all the classic "value" stuff that everyone who runs a NYC based shop is long); figured the only upside left here at $18 was predicated on a sale, whereas buying another big slug of MSGE in the mid-high $80's was a gimme. So thats what I did. Will be interesting to see if anything materializes and how it shakes out.

The universe where GameStop changes its name to Mashy and becomes the premiere online retailer of video games and accessories. A lot of ifs in there. Not too mention that EPIC / Roblox and every other gaming platform is dominating the space with a barrier to entry that Gamestop has a ridiculous hill to climb. I want to short but don't because I am not comfortable that I can handle the swings. Having said that, if it does hit anywhere near $500 again, I will be there trying to find a way. I bought and made money with puts the first go around but the premiums ate into so much of the move. Right now $300 3/19 put is $71.70 of premium...3/26 is $98.65...4/1 $107.70... Crazy. Fidelity 1.5% borrow rate. Shortable shares dropped to 0 today from over 200,000 yesterday. I think if you're looking at the fundamentals you are predicating your thesis on the wrong stuff. Everyone knows this is not worth $300 a share. Focus on the second half on what you wrote. Looks to me like a lot of the smarter, fundamental type investors are honing in on the same stuff....which could create a bit of a trap for shorts. Earnings in 2 weeks or whatever is a bit of a wrench potentially into either side of the trade, but I think the safest bet here is still selling some of the options. Structured in of course a conservative way. With this type of IV going like puts or calls just seems like a sucker bet. Just my 2c Only other thing Id add is that they touched on why they didnt do a share offering the first time, which probably means fair warning has been given and they will likely do one here, which could be a downside catalyst. Imagine they've got blackout til earnings though,

Camath basically got famous, as least in the capacity of being a money manger/finance guy, within the past 12-18 months and did almost all of it harnessing his branding power and hyping his "deals" to the moon. Not only has it already been shown to be unsustainable, but within its context, he's basically just the equivalent of a banking dude who got the hottest IPO's and claims he's the greatest but really is just tied to them popping a lot right out of the gate. Yea, he didnt even get through lockup expiration on many of these. He's the definition of a fad. At least ARK has consistently bought and held small companies, for many years, that turned into multi baggers or real world relevant names.....

Thanks for mentioning this. I found, maybe 3-4 months ago that the Canadian real estate co's/REITs were by and large, stupid cheap. This is one of the higher quality for sure. Dont really have a whole lot else to add other than the observation that the market is unnecessarily pessimistic, and in many instances overly simple in its application of a "dont touch retail" narrative. Spreads are still way too wide and discounts to private market remain enormous in some places. In terms of valuing it, that IMO depends on what your investment is predicated on. Are you investing based on a catalyst? Or is this just a perpetual buy and hold? Myself, I own a bunch of Canadian REITs/RE companies. 25-30% of book works for me when there's safely covered dividends and buybacks taking place.

There's definitely truth to that logic....but what if you dont want to have to be that active? In that case you should just buy a 30%+ position in Berkshire Hathaway, short some ARK stuff and then go on vacation for 6 weeks and not worry about anything! Trust me, I did it!

I would just urge caution around stuff like this...partly for reasons others have already stated, and partly because people can end up getting dragged into something just because of the "Twitter boys"....who I describe as basically a myriad of small time fund managers who consistently tout and promote their sub $1B, semi illiquid holdings and constantly bounce these things back and forth amongst one another and also run this sort of thing through other blog and message board outlets. Theres nothing wrong with this per say, but there also "may" be something wrong with it, depending of course of what "could" possibly, be really going on. Always be cautious whenever you see a lot of noise around a name on the internet, and especially on Twitter/similar outlets. That said, MBI is a pretty interesting situation. Definitely event driven. I think its an OK speculation.

Chamath is a grade A tool. People rip on ARK/Wood, but they've been doing it the old fashioned way, for a good many years now. Buy public company stocks, make their money as those holdings go up(or wayyyy up!). Chamath is a glorified stock promoter/pump and dump artist. Barry Honig 2.0 IMO

Inflation hurting RE is one of the biggest widespread, false narratives I consistently see people peddling. It is my belief, especially in certain areas(Sunbelt) that we're entering a phase not unsimilar in parallels to the mid 2000's. It will also mirror the tech bubble part one(late 90s) and tech bubble part 2(2015-now) in terms of how it plays out. First go around was warranted excitement but also ahead of itself, second go around is all that but with fundamentals to support it, and let it run longer and larger. And during housing bubble part 1.....mortgages where 5-8%...... EDIT: to clarify, I wouldn't exactly want to be a highly levered owner of certain RE assets, especially with a lot of short/mid term maturities. But otherwise, most of the higher rates = RE is fucked narrative, is crap.

Contrarily, is she any more full of shit than the value investor investment manager quoting Buffett and using DCF/excel sheet analysis talking up how their strategy will outperform in the long run....most of which have sucked wind the past decade? Those are often the biggest Cathy haters, at least from what Ive seen. Are her "models" questionable? Probably-definitely lol. But everyone in the biz knows much of this is just sales rhetoric. Not everyone has grapefruits like Kuppy and just says "shits probably going higher just cuz".....I actually just had a talk about a week ago with an investor asking me about SaaS stuff. Told him straight up that it wasnt my circle of competence but if he wanted I could give him a learned, industry inspired 2 minute spiel that sounds really good....but honestly I'd only touch it if it was some sort of non fundamentally driven sort of trade....I dont know much more about that stuff than he does. I dont think Cathy or her team know everything about everything they invest in....but at the same time...her detractors clearly dont either because they've been wrong about them probably longer than she's been right about them.

Ive mentioned before but the answer is simple....people hate on her because they are jealous. Same type of shit goes on at VIC with Son, so that is indeed a good comp. Dont fall into the trap some of these bums set trying to turn everything into a social justice/"identity" issue. No one I am aware of hates Cathy cuz she s a chick. They hate her cuz she makes what theyre selling look like shit so the only way to rationalize it is to slander/demean it. Again, see Son's detractors...same thing. Personally, I think she's great and its awesome seeing a chick dominate the old boys club. End of the day, every financial professional...at least those not working back office...is selling a product. She is very good at it. Thats said...#timesup Cathy!

While I began covering some of my ARK and covid bubble shorts late this week, something I think worth following is the ARK daily buy/sell reports. Devil is in the details but a step back and its plainly clear what is going on. Some of the ARK funds are more vulnerable than others...so pick wisely, but they are doing something potentially catastrophic. Happy hunting.

Well, first, I'll say, its not all genius, just being in the market(as always) is important. Tangentially I was super disappointed because during my absence there was apparently oh so much hope that all of readthecliffnotes super duper highly important financial industry superstar professional friends would finally find their way back to COBF since apparently people like myself turned them off so much! Dont know what happened but was at the least hoping they could teach us how to make oodles of money like the big boys. Perhaps show us how to short highly levered retailers using an Excel sheet inspired declining same store sales thesis? I dunno. But for little old me....I generally just go with that dirty little thing called gut feeling. Spacs are all about 2 things. Price and Marketability. So if someone gives me a unit at $10, its free money. Because the warrant itself is worth something. You want a little bit of marketability in theme or even name. Meme-y shit is a check in the positive column. Also important and overlooked is warrant cut. Not all $10 units are equal. So as an example....BIOTU at $10. You have a hot sector theme...check. Meme-y name...doesnt get better then "Biotech acquisition", and then you've got a 1/2 warrant so at $10 thats money in the bank and from there you just have to decide for yourself whats the comfort level as the price moves up. But be careful as a unit at $10.05 with 1/3 of a warrant is not equal to a unit at 10.05 with 1/2 warrant. Unless it comps for it elsewhere. Like a superstar manager for instance. So I wouldn't necessarily buy the cheapest first but it weighs into the equation. As does big ticket manager or even shit as stupidly simple as a marketable name with a good underwriter, etc. Hope this helps everyone interested.

Thank you. Was good to hear about all the love.

As requested! The updated list. ACEVU- +43% sold on announcement 2/19 ACICU- +68% sold on announcement 2/10 CGROU- +38% sold on announcement 12/07 CFACU- +46% sold on announcement 2/12 CFIIU- +12% sold on announcement 12/1 ETACU- still hold FUSEU- +31% sold on announcement 2/12 SRACU- +88% sold after announcement FSRVU- +64% sold on announcement 1/12 FTIVU- +31% sold on announcement 1/25 LATNU- still hold FRXU- +22% sold on announcement 2/10 LSAQ- still hold SPNVU- +19% sold, broke 12 no news CAPAU- +137% sold on announcement 2/18 IGACU- sold most around 12 on speculation pop, but still hold some PTICU- still hold SRSAU- still hold OACBU- still hold new adds: FLACU, LWACU, FOXWU, BIOTU, SPGSU, IIIIU I think if anything based on dates and pops one can figure out where the top was, but the same could be said for many stocks if you use the recent chart as a marker. You could raise the issue on timing the trade as a risk, but I generally just keep it simple; sell on the day of the announcement, sell if it trades at too much of a premium to cash, sell if a real investment comes along and you need the capital. I view cash as garbage and with the money printers on full blast and showing now signs of stopping, I view these, especially now around $10 as a much better placeholder....even in some cases they are purely margined so add a 1% annual carry to the underwritten capital at risk. Then again Id also point out that Ive been doing this for years and not just something I started when it became popular 10 months ago so my mentality is different. But the idea of $10(floor), $9.50(doomsday), upside-multiples of the downside, has always sounded pretty good to me. It isnt/wasnt uncommon for these to trade high 10s or low 11s 8-12 months after IPO, even pre mania. I'm also OK just flip flop trading for 2-3%. To each their own though.

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble. Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69! In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50 Long live spac alpha.

You buy into select spacs right now because you have negligible(1-10%) downside and can quickly pivot out of them when better opportunities in the equity world arrive. I'd happily take a 5% haircut on a spac to buy into a great equity on a large-scale panic selloff. Heck, there was a point in time when 5% was a transaction cost. Its negligible in the right situation and in other situations its just temporary. I will try at a later point to update the list I posted some months ago but Ive only bought a couple the during calendar 2021. But theres very much a point to owning these here because you get certainty in a market thats shitting itself. You get a quick few % on a market rebound. You get a potential deal announcement. Some you get warrant separation. And most excitingly, around $10 you can T these motherfuckers up like nothing else. Underwrite whatever you want but take BIOTU at $10.04. I made this a ~10% position today. If a assume a worst case scenario downside of $9 for the UNITS(yea right), my capital at risk is 1%. Who cares about 1%? Whereas in these sort of scenarios, the upside takes care of itself.

Did varying amounts of time in: Richmond, VA Hilton Head, SC Savanagh, GA St. Augustine, FL Jacksonville, FL Daytona Beach, FL Wellington, FL Palm Beach/Boca Raton area Orlando, FL Lakeland, FL Tampa, FL (including for the Bucs SB celebration...fun fun!) Miami/Coral Gables/South Beach Islamorada Didnt do JOE territory but I already know that deal there. Its still widely regarded as yuckville by local Floridians, but out of state folks see it much differently and yea, that area is going to be a Hamptons lite in time. I recently re-opened a small JOE position(today via small stock position and then some put sales) Just generally speaking, imagine life normal and vibrant a few years ago. Now amplify that by a few multiples. Thats how life is down there. Atlantic coast is basically NY/NJ folks and that type of vibe. A recent Post article summed it up well..."NYC is thriving, in Palm Beach"...100% true. You love retail brick and mortar right BG? I kid you not its booming and in good locations there no space and tons being developed. Vacancies are low/non existent in prime space. Whereas you and I could go through the wealthiest NY/NJ/NYC hubs and there's no shortage of vacancies and space available signs. Hospitality, restaurants down there? Bustling. In the Keys the restaurant parking lots looked like tailgate parties. 2000 people a day are(a figure someone down there mentioned to me so take it with a grain of salt) are moving to Florida. Engage in the exercise of tracking homes that go up for sale on Zillow. I inquired about 6 that listed within 24 hours and 5 were under contract already. My sister works at Lockheed in Orlando and said people are just signing out of work randomly to go see houses because if they wait to the end of the day they're gone. All the Northeast folks I ran into said they'd wished they'd moved sooner. Evaluate it from a business and financial perspective and I dont even need to elaborate on those benefits.....I really didnt even want to come back and I am a born and raised NJ guy who absolutely loves my current setup here. But boats going in the water in a few weeks and spring is around the corner so it'll get better. But the mentality down there is just so different from here where everyone lives in fear and is obsessed/consumed with covid all the time...and when you look at the justification for why things arent like that here? And then look at the overall figures and see that Sunbelt figures are the same, if not markedly BETTER than the comparable NE and coastal stuff you just wonder how badly things were bungled and there absolutely will be long term effects on the economy and for everyday folks it will become more and more apparent. When reopening, to a degree you are running a race and many of the Sunbelt states took off months ago and folks here probably won't be back to normal for a minimum of 6 more months and even then carry the psychological damage of whats transpired for the past year whereas down there its just business as usual and people are free and thriving. The craziest cherry on top was yesterday being back here and going to the supermarket and I observed someone walking with their head down toward a crowd of people and everyone just scattered like cockroaches. At first I laughed. Then I genuinely felt bad for them because the damage is so apparent. There's still signs up everywhere reminding everybody of everything and it'll prevent and stunt a return to normal. And like a little kid at Founders Park in Islamorada who was playing with my kids...he was SO SERIOUS, digging hard, determined, to find dinosaur bones in the sandbox. And like the people in the supermarket...I chuckled a little. But I also realized that this issue was fundamentally SO IMPORTANT to him that I would just let him keep doing his thing even though he was wasting his time and just unapologetically misinformed in the purpose of his endeavor. Same thing with the folks in the supermarket...chuckled, maybe smile and encourage them; "go along now....you keep fighting to flatten that curve!".....People are psychologically driven. I dont think this area is doomed per say....theres still probably money and opportunity here....but the Sunbelt is a no brainer and the runway is long. Like many other trends, specifically in tech, the train was already moving in that general direction, but slowly prior to covid...now its full steam ahead. And its impossible to stop. I prioritized my trip because all my friends down there were raving about it. The same will continue as more and more people up North see their friends and family enjoying quality of life that is simply impossible up here. Its sad, but its true and its opportunity.

Appreciate the kind words. BG on SPG I would lean towards agreeing. I exited the position entirely not long ago. Not that I dont still like it, but the next 10-15% up or down doesnt really get me interested. I liked it better on a relative basis pre covid @140 or so and certainly post covid at 50/60. Here there's much easier money to pick from the money tree. I'd also add that the spac is pretty awesome because its a way for a lot of people who admire the Simon guys but are otherwise(like yourself) put off by the hair on SPG. Which leads me to what I will probably write up in a bit. Sun Belt. As many know I spent the past couple months traveling and on a much needed vacation with the family. What is going on in the Sun Belt, specifically Florida, is breathtaking. It was a Mark Baum/Big Short due diligence trip type of moment for me. And I say this as someone who's typically spent 3-10 weeks a year in Florida almost every year of my life. You might think you have an idea, but you really dont. I thought I did, as was totally blown away by it. The plandemic will have lingering effects and shoes to drop that will have varying effects depending upon where on the map you reside. The SunBelt is absolutely on fire and its just getting started. At best, as a real estate guy, investing in the NE or coastal states is like being a value investor. Investing in Sun Belt is like being a growth investor. I encourage anyone willing to explore, and ultimately have a blast, to take a road trip for due diligence purposes.

Spac idea for my homies who showed love the last month.... Cash alternative with virtually no downside. Simple and straight forward. Current price 10.14 Simon Property Group is the largest retail REIT in the world by equity market capitalization with a 27 year public company track record of industry-leading performance. Over the past half decade I have talked real estate with more folks than I can remember, many smarter than I, and all holding great admiration for the guys at Simon. To quote one of them "If David Simon cant make it work no one can". You've got premier spacs run by Malone, Softbank, Ackman, etc all trading at significant premiums to cash. All chasing businesses and unicorns that have appreciated significantly in value. Here you have the apex predator in RE land hunting legitimately impaired turf where oporuntities are clearly more likely to be found. From the S1 We intend to identify innovative businesses with the potential to disrupt various aspects of the retail, hospitality, entertainment and real estate industries and make a transformative impact on in-person and/or online experiences. Additionally this is a very recent IPO so its caught in the wind of bubble deflation and still has about 5-6 weeks until warrant separation. Warrants are also only 1/5 compared to 1/3-1/2 which is standard. Go get em boys. Discolure, very long SPGSU

Just for you since I love ya BG....I'm buying, all day at $57 here. I think $75 was pie in the sky(probably 30% premium to NAV) and I had a hard time getting a hard on for a bull case that was basically "I hope management issues a fuck ton of stock at these price"....but at $57 with a cash hoard similar to FRP...which I also really like...play ball again. Very limited downside here. Back to my silence now.

He might, but he might not. And even if he does, its hard to argue its done anyone any good. I recall being long Blackberry leading into the eventual "fake bid". It was appealing from a value perspective and it was obvious they were really going to put the company in play. But when the best that comes of a real process is a sham bid from Fairfax at what was maybe IIRC a 5-10% premium....that tells you everything you needed to know. RUN TF AWAY. I actually came to believe that the BB deal was possibly more of a good publicity thing; bailing out one of Canadas national treasures...than it was a sound investment. FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%.

TR looks like another good candidate to sell some puts on. 3 weeks out the Feb 30s net you a buck, which is ~3x the annual dividend and worst case your basis is basically the 52 week low. To lose money the stock needs to decline ~15% in a few weeks. Or you can go long the common and short the $40 June calls for ~$3.50 which if called results in ~60% IRR. Interesting setup here.

It is because pressure on hospitals has eased: [/img] How dare you use science and data to make decisions. LOL the same "science and data" Cuomo used when NYC hospitals were overcapacity and needed 30,000 ventilators in April but then in August when launching his book, all of a sudden they had more ventilators than they needed and the hospitals were apparently never even close to capacity? Or the science where men can become women overnight due to a "change of mind"? You tell me bud... Well, the only way the difference between April and August could be true is if....lockdowns worked? ::Audible gasps:: I think you misinterpreted it. Cuomo, in April, was talking about hospitals being maxed out. Then in August during his book tour, claimed he did a great job and that hospitals were never close to being over capacity(back in April). He either lied in April or lied in August. But thats the data and science they use so...