Gregmal
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Everything posted by Gregmal
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It is because pressure on hospitals has eased: [/img] How dare you use science and data to make decisions. LOL the same "science and data" Cuomo used when NYC hospitals were overcapacity and needed 30,000 ventilators in April but then in August when launching his book, all of a sudden they had more ventilators than they needed and the hospitals were apparently never even close to capacity? Or the science where men can become women overnight due to a "change of mind"? You tell me bud...
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Exited DDS, FIZZ. Trimmed MSGN.
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AMC is interesting indeed. Puts have some juice too. I'll probably look at selling some puts @ 3/3.5/4s with expirations this and next week.
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Dickbag Newsome lifts covid restrictions in CA now. Even oh so dangerous indoor dinning! I wonder why? 5 days later than I expected and a week after Cuomo, but interesting timing nonetheless. Here's your booming recovery Joe! Primed and ready. Almost like we manipulated the figures for you!
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low $ starting share price. liquid and plentiful assortment of options(pun intended), tight float. Stuff Ive looked at like DDS, FIZZ, BIGC dont have the option chains GME or BB have. BBBY looks a lot more like GME than BB, IMO. They also have an active buyback. That said, I think today was the top for a lot of these names.
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LOL I occasionally see ads for "investing legend who bought NFLX at $3" or whatever featuring Tilson. And cant help but chuckle thinking, "isnt this the guy who blew up his hedge fund shorting stocks like NFLX and TSLA?"....
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Yea.....What did folks think was going to happen going into/over the weekend? Everyone reads their feeds and gets the impression these are dangerous and sells Monday morning? Of course not. I played it like a pussy and bought old reliable Dillards, but damn, some of these others are ripping nice too. BBBY, FIZZ, etc. There's a predictability to behavior of the masses.
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The force is strong on these. I've trimmed down a ton since the Feb/March buys. Will probably exit everything thats leftest today. $40-45 was as obvious a setup as you'll ever see.
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Took some of this off, also sold another 25% of GILT, swung proceeds of both into more BRK.
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91 pre market
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"Well what did the index do?" is one of the lamest talking points in the investing world. If you cant invest or dont know how to invest, the index/ETF method is the way to go. If you are picking specific companies, its stupid to care about such a trivial thing. In fact, if you are trying to "beat the index", the most likely way to do so is by not obsessing over "the index"...I dont think I've bothered to waste time charting my portfolio against the S&P in years. I just focus on the individual companies I am invested in and the trades I current have on and thats enough. And for all the "you'd have been better off just buying the index" folks out there, I have yet to encounter even one who can tell me the exact date they put their entire portfolio into an index fund and then never touched it again, and were thus "better off"...
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I tend to wonder this as well sometimes.
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Personally, Ive never quite understood how people make and then lose life changing fortunes to a degree that it significantly effects their life. There's few "essential" big ticket items in life. To me, house, car, boat....House you buy once and then need to keep reserves for the repairs/replacement...car figure 10 year life cycle, maybe 15. Boat, we'll leave that one alone. But how folks can make hundreds of thousands, let alone millions, and not check those boxes is astounding to me. How dont you cash out and solidify those? Because once those boxes are checked off, you could probably work at Chipotle and still maintain a pretty decent quality of life. Biggest other expense is probably healthcare, which you can now get even with a part time bs job at Starbucks or Home Depot. You dont need to be a genius to see that "no mortgage/manageable mortgage, no car payment, couple toys"....makes life 100x easier.
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Yea my 23 year old brother, super edjukated, UPenn grad student in biomedical engineering, told me over the weekend that all his friends(of similar backgrounds) are on the WSB forums chasing options and making small fortunes in their Think or Swim accounts. Its always amazed me how the markets can seduce people of all intelligence levels. I remember having an SMA client some time ago, guy worked for a similar type of company as Edward Snowden did, was a US Navy Seal with a Harvard education, must have ACAT-ed in a half dozen accounts with clean energy themed penny stocks....intelligence does not always equate to one's success in the markets. Sometimes the smarter you are, the more the market can play tricks on you. In the case of my brother and his friends, these are all kids who are going to be making 7 figures one day so getting a school of hard knocks education now is probably a worthwhile investment, but I'd imagine that isnt the case for everyone. Definitely a sign of the times though.
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Do you think Bitcoin is a safe store of value?
Gregmal replied to mikazo's topic in General Discussion
Most people confuse safety with volatility(or lack there of), so right off the bat, no. Anyone with any sort of vision or understanding of the productization of WS fads...sees(or saw) the setup. But its still just a speculation. Miller saw this before most, so he deserves some credit. -
I mean at some point there will be a market mechanism that resolves the imbalance. I'd pretty much guarantee GME has some folks working over the weekend on a potential offering. Much like VIX 40+, these situations tend to be short lived.
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With that IV it looks like it will be tough to make any solid returns. I looked at puts on GME ( March) and they were barely down on a day when Gamestop rose 70%. At least buying puts doesn’t seem like the way to play this. Its not. People looking at it from a bet up/down perspective I dont think are going to be successful on a repeated or adjusted basis considering how expensive both sides of the market is. March is a little far out for puts, but Ive found selling very short dated out of the money puts on names like this is the best way to capture some easy money. Worst case is what? You get exercised a small position while its still a volatility shit show and you have to trade out of it? Going too far out you run the risk of getting put the stock after the circus has left down and you own a flatlined turdco. No position in GME but Ive loved doing shit like this over the years on stocks like RICK or DDS, FIZZ occasionally as well. Probably a few others that currently escape me. Monetizing volatility is easier than wagering whether or not Bama covers the spread. If you are selling OTM calls I'd want to be going as far out, time wise as possible. So yea, in summary, best way to go about these is to short near dated puts and short long dated calls, in each instance being pretty far OTM.
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Grabbed some DDS for a one night stand. After the GME fun, who wants to be short going into the weekend?
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DDS is always a short squeeze candidate.
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Agree. Seems like a stupid game that no one is forced to play. Do you want to make money, or do you want to be a value investor? :) I actually think it looks like a massive opportunity. Just follow the herd stampede. It's unprecedented what we're seeing, so there should be opportunities on both sides. The hive mind grows bigger and bolder and more flush in cash the more it succeeds, which will attract even more to the game. A lot of shorts must consider whether they should unwind their shorts in the most crowded names to avoid being next in line, adding to the buying. Over and over we see this sort of mentality. The herd is quite predictable. Even just shorting puts on these names has been highly profitable and easy. Especially if you have any experience behind the behavior aspects driving all of this. Check out the weekly options. Its like playing house at the casino.
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Politics is banned right? Supposedly. Which is why I found it odd Liberty posted a partisan opinion piece by a partisan clown...so I just wanted to make sure everyone was aware of the context. Thankfully, muscleman beat me to the fact check.
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Heather is an oaf. Typical academic liberal elite hack. Otherwise, good to see we are getting excuses on day 1.
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Luck is not entirely predicated on chance. There are reasons some consistently get lucky and others dont. To use a hockey analogy, David Clarkson was the luckiest 30 goal scorer Ive ever seen in my life. But the guy worked hard and went to the front of the net and as they say, good things happen when you go to the net. Too many folks, when it comes to investing, want credit for sitting in the film room and never, or rarely, getting on the field.
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I agree with the skepticism and am short some of their ETFs. However I would also caution denigrating this simply because of bitter laggard syndrome. Ive seen so many of the "my analysis" people rip these folks but the scoreboard is what counts. We arent talking 1 lucky year here anymore either. Just as ARK is very promotional, theres also a sect of very promotional traditional brick and mortar type finance firms and people who want you to believe "their analysis" is worth what they charge....when it isnt. These same people want you to believe that ARK returning 40% doesnt matter and that this is inferior to their 11% before fees which is really not much after fees. They sell you with similar financial speak, and even as folks see on Twitter and whatnot with stocks like Tesla, want you to believe their analysis is right(that Tesla was a great short at $200; before the split) and the person who called Tesla $4000 is wrong....As if one looks at their retirement fund and goes "time for the sunset, the analysis is great!"....bitter laggard syndrome I call it. "My analysis" is better than your real life 10 bagger....LOL ok... Invitae was an interesting one for me that gave me a bit of an appreciation for the stock picking abilities; again, not that I fully understanding what those abilities or their process is....but NVTA they honed in on at the bottom. Maybe $5 a share. It was a totally left for dead, broken IPO, piece of shit money burner with nothing going for it. And they built this big position in it and its another 8-10 bagger in a few years for them. It would be foolish to just write that off when its been repeatedly accomplished. What I think has changed is that they dont have the small size advantage anymore. ARKG is not going to retain assets if Roche or BMY is the top billing. The bull scenario for me(as a short) there is that indeed they rotate into those type of name, but fast money will flee if they do. There was an interesting dynamic with some of their holdings. These are smaller cap names where ARK was already a top shareholder. And these names started responding to the massive inflows which in a sense was probably ARK bidding up ARK stocks. I really dont have anything against them. If anything else, it shows how easy making a living in the financial/money management business is. You literally just need to be right big, once, and be promotional about it to be set for life. Its likely part of what pisses off so many people about ARK. But they definitely offer something unique and to this point have quite an enviable track record. I dont think it continues and like the market hedge aspect of being short this, so that is how I am setup. But I wish them luck. Also good to see the underdog drive the excel sheet/clipboard nerds crazy.
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IDK but if "the markets"(to use everyones favorite term) go up 85% this year, why wouldn't it be reasonable for folks who are bearish to still do 30%(which accounts for hedge related drag) and then use a portion of their profits to hedge out next year?