Gregmal

Now it all makes sense! Both you fine fellas. Hahah cheers.

^ In that regard I think you just have to manage it. I set a hard accumulate limit under $10K and just stuck to that. Had a good long while to get the position. I thought there was ultra high probability that we retest and then break the old highs. Once enough air gets between you and then ground, you just want to constantly derisk. I have no intention to buy any dips. Just trim small and regularly as this flies. Who knows how wild or crazy the crash landing will be. SD is on point with his implied message that this is purely a traders vehicle. There is no intrinsic value, which is not to be confused with saying it has no utility. But its not like you have fundamental markers such as price to book or whatever with which you can implement a buy/sell strategy.

SD trading or Wabuffo talking about monetary policy....both are kind of like grad level university course poetry. You can see its beauty. You are captivated by its effortless luster, and ultimately leave appreciating it, but not really understanding it anyway.

I think HTB is just a designation for an elevated fee, currently I think ~2-3% although that floats. More important to keep an eye on available shares. Theres over 1M shares of ARKG at Fidelity and a couple mil at RBC. Haven't checked IBKR. Dont underestimate the brokerage industry's cleverness with disclosing fees. That HTB warning is often just the way they tell you they're hitting up your account for something.

Took another roughly 10% or so off CRSP, EDIT, BEAM, RPTX and paid down some margin plus added to ARKG short. Also tacked on a few more shares to TSLA short.

I dont really get whats so controversial. If people are bullish, which obviously a lot of them are, be long. If its so obvious that its a bubble, make a play on that. People are far too often terrified of paper losses or dealing with "what if it goes up"...if it does, so what? I dont think its an ideal short for everyone. I think a more efficient way to short it is through some of the ETFs that also have other junk. But I mean at 700B you're getting into law of large number territory. On top of all the other crap. Best bet IMO is just pair it proportionally to something valuey and ride it out. Short 5 shares TSLA for every 100 shares BRK or something late that. Better than being in cash.

Theres your IPOE for the win. Next up from Chamath is F or something. Sold out of a few recently and the LSAQ train left the station, as far as pre announcement spacs go. CAPAU too did its couple % march towards warrant separation move too.

This is just the tip. Simon is doing similar things, check out their NHL Seattle mixed use development at Northgate. Although I know, malls suck and retail is dead apparently. You could make the argument part of the lasting effect of work from home would be all in one setups that mimic cities. It'll be easy enough to convert mall space to office, but you also have flexibility to create outparcels while vertically adding office/residential. If this location is solid, this will be a hit.

I think all opinions and offerings should be welcome but also all of them should be subject to ridicule and getting shit on. That keeps things honest. My 2c hasn't changed really. But taking a step back this investment was started in the early party of the decade under the Obama administration and there were a couple avenues, but it was largely a legal battle. Trump came in and it was OMG he/Mnuchin is gonna fix it, but the under appreciated aspect today vs 4 years ago is you have 4 years worth of legal time value now on your side. Theres good likelihood the journey on the legal front is nearing an end, and this ascribes no value to an executive order type of move. Its similar to the SPAC warrant which does have an expiration date, and if things dont roll your way its worth zero, but in any event, contrary to conventional wisdom, it should and usually is worth more the closer it gets to expiration.

Ive added about 20% across the board to FNMAS, FMCCL, FNMAH today. Albeit small allocation. But market neutral/event driven and both sentiment and expectations are pretty rotten right now. Yea, sometimes I just like to take the other side of a trade.

Anytime you buy or sell anything its risky. Size the position accordingly so that you can both manage it, and sleep at night.

Im probably on a net basis, moderately below fully invested once you account for puts and shorts. More liquidity and powder than I've had in ages. Essentially long recovery/REITs and short the bubble stuff.

Swapped DD into BRK, added to ARKG short, bought more ARKK puts, sold LHSIF. Picked up a few more CLPR and MRG-UN. Shorted a bit more BYND as well.

Always on.

I swapped this into BRK today. Its probably still good, but when you get 50% inside a year on a stock like Dupont, and then see Berkshire just sitting there like the fat girl at the end of the bar......

Yup. we are entering our 2000-2005 moment, fellow value investors. Enjoy.

With all the people who apparently crushed the market in 2020, COBF should have no problem raising a few million.....

I do recall SharperDingaan's timely exit at $18k on the first run up. Been managing the position and already have several times the cost basis removed, so the dice continue to get rolled. Where it lands, no one(except maybe SharperDingaan) knows!

That 12% note should likely get refinanced soon. Strong showing from AYR at the polls yesterday.

Guess who won GA? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3649177-bitcoin-declared-winner-in-georgia-election

Unless they(Tetragon) act desperately(which the current action seems like thats a possibility), I dont think their investment will be even close to 0 or even impaired significantly. The combination of Ripple being both a private company, and a crypto related company, leads to lots of ignorance and assumption. If this was public(and with that, had a bit more concrete info) I'd probably be a dip buyer. The issue in part seemed political, and everything I've seen says its been going on and debated for years. See: https://fortune.com/2020/12/21/ripple-to-be-sued-by-sec-cryptocurrency-xrp/ So even in terms of recouping the entire $200M Series C, we're talking about a company that per the valuation of its Series C, is 10x bigger than Tetragon. Before the company announced that the SEC was pulling this, it would have easily IPO'd at $20-30B. So raising a few hundred million to redeem, or an 8 figure sum to settle with a new administration, is chump change. If I had to predict the exact outcome, I'd wager on a 7 or low 8 figure "Settlement" and then a few compromises and this then continuing to exist as it has, with a following IPO, which occurs with a valuation much greater than $10B. Of course I could also be entirely wrong and it could be permanently impaired like no company before it, and it goes out of business because of the SEC...IDK. Ive never actually seen the later happen even in instances where I was certain it should have. Here, the entirety of EVERYTHING, comes down to the "interpretation" of something that is 1) ambiguous, and 2) a guideline put in place many years AFTER Ripple starting doing its thing. In order for Tetragon to get 0, Ripple would likely have to be wiped out. In such a case we are assuming this is a BILLION dollar problem, which significantly exceeds some of the big bank, mortgage fraud settlements from the GFC. That sounds utterly preposterous to me.

Thanks. I will put it on the list. The benefit of the ETF is muting out the occasional outlier that could be Clarivate or and AYR type. The PE exits also sometimes can be catalysts. I remember watching all the shorts on VIC get excited because Roark Capital blew out of Wingstop between $25-30, and we all know what happened after that. Also for those interested, SPCX just debuted, and is IMO a much safer pre spac deal ETF that could be interesting.

Gotcha, thanks. Dont follow TFG really. I took a flyer on small bits of Bitcoin and Ripple(labs) some years back. Before the money left my account I realized it was the definition of high risk and speculative and that all the risks associated with the millions of disclosures about "loss of investment" definitely applied. The "its not a currency" issue has been around forever as well. So one would have to wonder what exactly the underwriting process at Tetragon is if this catches them so far off guard that it changes the entire outlook of their investment that they made barely a year ago. Will be interesting to watch for sure.

Didnt they only invest like $30M? The series C was Dec 2019, no? Or were they there prior as well?

Poo poo. The truth is that the holdup on vaccine rollout is that all the wealthy and connected folks are still on vacation and we're waiting for them to get back and get their shots. Once they do, then the normal folks can start getting it!