Gregmal

Nicely done here. Congrats.

I typically look for 3-6 month windows, 20%+ OTM. But you need to have some kind of catalyst. Otherwise puts are just a waste, IMO and you are better off just sizing an outright short properly, or doing something around an ETF/index. They're great because if you go out of the money and time it right you can easily get 3-5x out of it, and then just roll it down the chain until it stops working.

Good find. That makes sense then I suppose we're looking at the cash out plus current market adjusted price, which roughly gets us a ballpark of $2 and change. These spacs are definitely getting more and more creative. I've seen language on the warrants that effectively allows them to be cancelled if not given instruction to exercise after the typical thresholds are crossed/met. Thanks. Looks like this is a waste of time then lol. Unless you're keen on the biz, which I have no opinion on.

Wouldn't it just be easier for Prem to poach the ARK team/buy the franchise and claim they are running the equity portfolio? j/k

Yea I am not entirely focused on the biz....there is that angle to always analyze. I'm just talking about warrant pricing. For instance, TLMD is a pos and closed some time ago, shares trade at $7 and the warrants due to having 4+ year trade well over $1. FSR did a deal close nose dive identical to LSEA, warrants bottomed around $1.8. The warrant pricing a few weeks ago, ~$2 seemed within reason. Here you're looking at 30c warrants with an 11.50 strike and 5 years of time. $0.30 seems outrageously mispriced and is perhaps entirely the result of ~9M warrants trading inside of a week, or if there is something more specific I am missing. This caught my eye cuz I look at a lot of the spacs, but was hoping someone closer to this was able to confirm or deny any sort of buried in the document specific reason for this, or if indeed this is just total lopsidedness in the short term supply/demand equation. If this is a $8-9 share, the warrants should be at least $1.

So this is a quick writeup as at best its timely and at worst a waste of time. LFAC(spac) bought Landsea. What not to like is obvious. Full time allotment plus extension spac deal...historically this is an ominous sign. Background...Landsea is a homebuilder, predominantly single family, semi upscale, and homebuilding is a typically mediocre business. https://landseahomes.com Post close entity has a bit over 100M in debt. Just closed on some parcels in AZ, has solid revenue backlog. Concerns would relate to material/lumber costs increasing, but par for the industry. Obviously, one can find reasons to get optimistic about housing. Yada, yada. Who cares about all that. Trading volume on warrants has been gargantuan and typical of many spac deals post merger. Selling pressure has taken these from as high as ~$2 to 30c or so. Expiration date 1/7/2026(or around there, dont quote me). I wouldn't say free money bc post spac is still post spac IMO, even in bubble mania. But 11.50 strike on a sector with some bright prospects and .30 for 5 years is pretty wild, no? Someone tell me what I'm missing.

Well, in the worst case scenario? People like us buy homes!

If you can't tell the difference between making a contrarian call against a market and believing in pedophile cannibals or whatever evidence-free conspiracy theories and supporting narcissist sociopaths that are anti-conservative-ideals in almost every way (politics shouldn't be defined by "sides", it should be defined by the ideas and values that you support, right?), maybe you need to think longer about it. There's plenty of wealthy investors out there, I'd rather try to learn from those that aren't otherwise nuts, because madness is never that compartmentalized and in the long-term it is rationality and detachement that is rewarded in the market, not fiery inflexible ideologues. For all I know, Burry was quite sane back in 2006-2007 and his brain rotted out later.. I don't know, don't really care to find out ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Oh, and if you want an example of contrarian thinking, I think that speaking up negatively against one of the anointed "investing gods" with a strong brand created by a book and a movie qualifies. I guess you only like contrarians when they agree with you... Not really. Thinking patterns and framework can be applied in one way and be brilliant and applied in another and be stupid. Everyone can and should be able to think for themselves. And be open to learning. Whether its learning information, or simply new applications of a system, whether such system works or doesnt, you can still learn; there's no harm in simply observing. As to the bold, theres few better examples of such than.......er, dudes who run around screaming "lalalala I CANT HEAR YOU", "MODERATOR HALP!", or "WHERE'S THE IGNORE BUTTON!"....

^ Didnt Burry own a lot of GME? Or was that TLRD? I know he has a thing for the highly levered retailers with high short interest.

I bought a few shares but finally gave in and picked up some leaps as well. 2022 175s.

This is laughable. If anything you could make the case that a lot of the same traits that let one connect the dots or go against the grain of public perception is what allows one to find tremendous investments. I mean I know everyone and their mother is a genius who shorted the housing bubble, just like everyone now claims to have bought the covid dip in March and April and done 50% last year....but at one point in time, you were considered a crazy conspiracy theorist for thinking the housing market was going to implode, just like Burry did, and we all know how that turned out. It boggles my mind how people can be so scared or shut off to simply hearing differing opinions or information.

added more BRK.

^ Well there is also the fact that it is unlikely very much fundamentally changed in 5 weeks. After years of calling this a go no short, I shorted too in December, around 630s and added the other day in 870s. For sure the last few days paint a chart picture that points to $1,000, but whatever. If you're playing the guessing game of where it trade tomorrow you should only be long as there's ample evidence from the past decade that this is where the easy money is. Burry is indisputably a brilliant investor. But hey, we can't all be bread winners.

Yup. The new definition of "liberty"....

If you think Deere is bad, check out WD40.

Thats definitely an interesting and creative idea. I feel like its also an idea inspired by being in a bubble! Whats a man got to do to buy some reasonable priced growth stocks! But yea, that does kind of get to the core of where shorting out quality discrepancies within the valuations would make sense.

Thats a good component of my short/hedge basket. I'd add ZM and BYND although BYND Ive covered a little bit as Impossible is garnering a $4B valuation in private rounds, which if you translate that to a public valuation, doesnt make BYND seem as egregious. Although I still think its egregious, I'd just be mindful of what that could imply as far as short/intermediate downside may be. Others, NVAX, FCEL, TLMD, JKS, FEYE and maybe..although I have some hesitations, CVNA and PTON. And, no, you never lose all your money if you came prepared. If you cant take a short going against you 5-10x you shouldn't be shorting or are doing it wrong. I also think outright shorting to make money isnt ideal 95% of the time. It's more an attractive way to offset some risks being long if you pair/size it properly. 10 up, 3 down is still +7. The attractiveness is that if you are somewhat in the same ballpark from a timing perspective, both sides can work out. But up 3, up 6 for example, shouldn't be the expectation bc you'll leave disappointed more often than not.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651297-space-sector-on-watch-ark-invest-said-to-be-starting-etf LOL, good for them.

The reality is that they need to kickstart the rebound so Biden can not only get credit for curing covid and cancer, but also saving the economy. Especially those of deep blue states. Notice how the news outlets are already declaring it "Biden's $2,000 stimulus checks"? Odd, because unless I am mistaken, one guy called for $2,000 checks, and it wasnt Joe, it wasnt Nancy, and it definitely wasnt Mitch.

Im just wondering where the rest of the market is? BRK is a no brainer here. Its basically a cash alternative at these levels, especially with the financials having gone ballistic. Nothing is priced in.

BRKB, CLPR, FRG starter

Yea they "dont need it" but want it anyway....odd. Dont get me wrong, I'm all for raising $100M just like that. But it just goes to show what a waste of time the 12% note is. The purpose of that was not to dilute! Now they dilute, just cuz. If they are excited about what the election brought, wouldn't that also likely include financing at reasonable rates? I think the widespread legalization also speeds up a lot of the risks too. I still like this a lot, but have swung some shares to Liberty which is just a cheaper conversion. Notwithstanding, valuation is also quite different than it was a year or even 6 months ago.

Oh they definitely have some skills. Skills that half the population would certainly appreciate. Watch the video!

Watch out. The COO was just whining about people being negative about the stock on Seeking Alpha. He was literally wrong about everything he said. It revealed quite a bit though.

I don't think there is anything on the REIT disclosures. Ive previously gone as high as about 4.5% and currently have 2 that are between 1-3%. Never filed anything or been told Ive had to. My understanding for REITs is they need to have the 5/50 thing down, but that would be an obligation of the company and its agent in order to validate the tax status, should they get audited.