Gregmal

Was at the mall today, and my God! What happened to Victoria Secret models? All the posters and store signage were of fat chicks in revealing clothing. Was disgusting. What happened to the ones Leo would date?

Been shorting Jan 22 puts ~30-50% OTM on CLF, SLB, RIG and buying Jan 23 calls ~50-100% OTM. Also small adds to ALCO, JOE, MSGS

Why'd you leave Fidelity? I would probably have everything there if they had better margin rates. IBKR is low quality IMO but serves a purpose. Although they've seemingly gone from being the lowest cost option to now a more expensive than peers, nickel and dime operation with abysmal customer service.

In addition to my comments in the other thread, I'd concur its "dirt" cheap. I'd like to see more land sales. If you sell land people will focus on land(and subsequently a high $55-$65 NAV. If you just sell oranges then people will focus on oranges and thats less cheap but still quite attractive at basically 7-10x conservative assumptions. They have moat in that scale here matters. They've got a long standing relationship and contract with Trop. They've also ventured into the management side of things. Basically, with all the issues facing orange groves, it sucks to be a little guy. And its good to be the top dog. Otherwise, Im looking to add today and tomorrow. After the extended drama with Trefelet, the price action, volume change, etc...would not be shocked to see a form 4 filed tomorrow after the close. In one of the strange behavioral aspects of the "smart money", when there's a forced/desperate big seller, they scatter like cockroaches even though Ive always found it to be opportunistic to buy.

Holding a complex and convoluted enterprise in an out of favor sector is tough sledding.

Wow this of the surface seems pretty cool. I'll have to look into it but is there any real info on the beta? IE how kind of allocation would be suitable per lets say $100k? An ETF I'd imagine is fairly low, but it the fund holds options it could be pretty gnarly. Thanks in advance if anyone has answers or just wants to throw shit against a wall and guess.

I have not really, but its on the list. I generally dont like this area of the market and its certainly not within my circle of competence. CLF Ive followed since Ive long been in and around MSB. Was kind of a case of pattern recognition and a jockey bet. Although not really hugely successful as I didnt really like the AKS deal and sold down a bunch. Yea...what kind of retard makes a jockey bet and then sells because he disagrees with the jockey? Thats me! Poor execution and lack of ability to stick to the original thesis, at least with respect to a portion of the position and its sizing....forget the fact that LG was 1,000% right. But things look great with the well run commodity names and those with newer facilities and low debt to EBITDA are WAYYYY too cheap, IMO, even without a super cycle.

Guiding to $5B FY adj EBITDA which basically means they're trading at less than 3x FCF and can likely eliminate all debt within a year. Crazy what LG has done here.

While thats one take, the other side is that basically all of their other investments required a batshit crazy market/event in order to work. If we give them the benefit of the doubt for being "prudent" here, they deserve quite a bit of the other side of the coin for all the other stuff thats been done over the years. Ultimately, it seems like this was exited for what is ultimately a rather insignificant sum for FFH...which begs the question, why was it necessary at all? Meanwhile they have very meaningful, long held, turdco positions that they refuse to monetize. Which I cant help but think is another "look how smart I think I am" move by Prem....aka more of the same behaviors of the past.

As far as personal finance is concerned...marginable securities, lines of credit, cash substitutes like SPACs, even something like a put which increases in size generally with a market decline will then because a source of funds to make investments with during distress. Home equity can be as well, although typically it takes a few weeks to tap into and markets can theoretically freeze up during periods of chaos, although this notion was somewhat disproven last March when I had zero trouble doing a refi. Not for everyone, but works for me.

You're doing it adequately IMO. Cash is trash but that isnt really applicable here. You're just adding leverage and in a way derisking your asset. If the market keeps cranking you'll be able to run another cash out refi at a $700k appraised value in a few years anyway. If the market drops...well, you'll be thankful you monetized it at a higher price. In my case I have ample liquidity at the moment so I have no interest in pulling the trigger on a refi right now. But if you dont then its a wise move. Always have liquidity on hand. That doesnt necessarily have to be cash, just access to it.

shorted a few CLF 6/25 $20 puts

Hi Ray, Thanks for mentioning the VIC writeup, I cant believe I hadn't seen it before but was a good read. I dont really think there's a specific writeup I can point to. I've followed the company for years and one of the beauties of a company like this is that its pretty static. Once you familiarize yourself with the assets there's not a whole lot of upkeep you need to do on your thesis outside of fairly simple stuff like listening/reading transcripts. What lead me to conclude this is now a good IRR type investment this winter and especially this spring was several things. 1) Its failed to participate in any sort of appreciation seen by most assets/companies despite the fact that there hasn't been any value destruction here. 2) Management now has a multi year track record of solid decision making and is now starting to do IR work. 3) FL and Sun Belt RE, especially land, has gotten so hot its inevitable that it starts bleeding into this valuation. Because of 2) you can get confident that it will be capitalized on. 4) All else fails you have such a margin of safety(even still at $34 IMO) that its unlikely you lose anything but opportunity cost..which in a fickle market isnt too much of a concern to me.

Yea if you arent with the movement, your civil rights are free to be violated. Its a real shame.

Yea I think theres two reasons for that. 1) the company has been left for dead and 2) often with land sales, putting them under contract and closing them are not necessarily the same thing. You definitely dont get 100% credit in the public markets until the checks are cashed. Either way, glad to see people making money. If you think a 5% dividend yield, and ~70% of NAV is fairish value for a company in a stable/boring business, thats expected to grow earnings, continue paying down debt, and increasing dividends while basking in the Sun Belt growth story....well you've still got about 20% upside til that happens. The volume of late has been good, they've been doing IR work. Remy has stopped selling. And they've shown theyre willing to sell the land. All good stuff.

They're two totally different investments. For growth, I think its best imbedded in an observation of the 1/3/5 year performance. VZ has largely been a turd bond alternative only recently made popular because Buffett bought it. BABA has been growing like a weed and now popular because Munger bought it. But the investment case really comes down to one thing...and that is, does the Chinese or US government impair the company's ability to operate? If yes, this is probably a mediocre investment, if no, its going to be a home run.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3706008-alico-announces-178-increase-in-dividend-additional-ranch-land-sales-and-update-on-esg-initiative Well, there's most people's annual returns...inside a month, on a highly asymmetric investment. Not selling yet, still favorable outlook here and shares are cheap.

I think there's value in both approaches. I bought my house in my mid 20s with 10% down. I dont ever want to have it fully paid off. Chillin around +/-15% of 50 LTV is ideal for me. I was able to do a cash out refi in March 2020 when cash was very handy. But thats the thing, it was timely. Due to appreciation since then, I could probably do another one now....but why? There's nothing major brewing right now so just keep paying it down. You mortgage is almost like a savings account. There's two things to keep in mind, 1) liquidity and investable cash is much more valuable the younger you are. So having access to as much of it as possible, as young as possible, is a big deal. Let the compounding start as early as possible. 2) Its unique financing that isnt really replicable anywhere else. Use it. A HELOC still generally has a somewhat higher rate. Personal loans are way higher. And credit cards are absurd.

Few names come to mind. Peloton. Seems to be the definition of a top 10%-er brand. LULU as well. Basically cater to affluent stay at home moms and super busy high earners in urban/suburban areas. I'll also tout MSG again. Cost for a family of 4 to go to a game is probably between $800-1,000. And the best part, is due to location and corporate customer base...they can be abusive and dont need to retain customers. In fact, they've typically had a waitlist despite a generally poor reputation with respect to how they treat their fans. With the VZ vs AAPL topic, I think they're different. If everyone needs a phone plan, you'd naturally have limited options with respect to choice. Poor people and frugal folks will pick cheapest, wealthier folks will go with best service. I think its simple as that. I dont know how much retention power they truly have. But I do think its a relationship void of loyalty. I hear of people switching phone plans and providers all the time. Whereas it seems folks within the AAPL or Android ecosystem are insanely loyal and even if they want to switch, have reasonably large hurdles because of the stored data and content. I dont often watch TV, but even there, when I do....I like the Firestick way better. But then I remember all my shit is on the AAPL TV and despite hating the interface I use that more often than not.

A lot of REITs are still quite cheap. There's still a ton of covid related spread that needs to compress. Whether its MF or triple net, if the 10 year is 1.5%, those should be priced at 150-250 bps over that(in terms of best of breed companies/quality assets). Which is basically where the private market is, but the public markets have a good ways to go. Obviously this refers to top notch stuff. Look at something like Realty Income(which I dont own but only because I see better returns elsewhere)...the fact this is trading with a 4% yield(~80% payout ratio pre VEREIT synergies) despite growing NOI and raising dividend during 2020 is stupid. Just because "things have gone up a lot" doesnt mean they're overvalued. One day the world will wake up to the fact that bonds are useless, S&P is at 45x, and yet, you can get 5-10% annual returns in real estate without trying. If they dont wake up, well I guess thats even better for some of us.

Agree with the above. I employ something similar. Buy a small starter, generally 10-25 bps. Then you start researching it. If it goes down, who cares. You can either find the lower price appealing, or let it go. A position that size going even to 0 is still almost meaningless to your bottom line. As Mike said, if it goes higher, you're still making money, whats the problem? 10% return on $10,000 is still better than the return you'd get of $250k if you are in cash. If I conclude from my DD I like it, I have several options. Generally recurring, repeated buys spread over the period of time I consider reasonable to average into an upcoming catalyst. IE earlier this year I saw the BRK Feb earnings as a catalyst. I started 2021 with an 8% position and every day up til the ER release bought some stock, more on down days, up until the ER, taking it to a ~40% position. Then I was done. If there's no catalyst I'll generally take a more sizable starter, 1-3% in a couple purchases and then just wait for more material dips to add. If something is controversial I will look to sell puts against it to collect premium and add lower. If its really boring and liquid and doesnt pay a meaningful dividend, I'll sometimes cut it with options. IE BRK at $225 I took some $175 calls for Jan 22. MSFT at $250 I'd just take a position in the $200 calls a few months out. If the stock declines toward that basis you can then sell puts at that strike to keep the position on and then sell OTM calls against it. The only thing I try not to do is buy OTM calls as they're generally a sucker bet. But thats not to say you cant ever do that. I'm looking at some energy stuff at the moment and if you expect a big move in a notoriously shitty biz, thats probably a good situation to limit your exposure/outlay/capital at risk via OTM LEAP calls. This is a good topic though. I find its easy picking winners and losers. The challenge is often how to maximize what you get out of the idea and doing so in the best risk adjusted fashion.

Wow so they were short...interesting and kind of makes sense given the way things played out. Should have just kept their mouths shut.

Its inevitable. People are massively under invested/exposed to RE. Just look at the what percentage of net worth is RE thread....In the how to allocate for dummies materials they give every jerk off in school and as intro to finance, you're suggested to have 1/3 in stocks, 1/3 in bonds, and 1/3 in RE. Granted that shit was largely written when you could get something out of a bond, so if anything thats shifted. But everyone should probably have at least 40-50% in RE in the current environment. Folks seem to have forgotten about cycles but they are real. There is and will continue to be a mass exodus from bonds. Stocks arent exactly cheap either and we've had a decade long run of folks justifying obscenity when it comes to justifying a stupid low hurdle for owning anything tech related. Last year was the final washout catalyst IMO. I am expecting and positioned for the upcoming super cycle.

Took some off at $26 on new buyout offer. Stock still cheap though.

There is almost limitless value in being able to do most of the stuff yourself. A good manager is worth their weight in gold, but 98% of them are worthless and none of them really do anything that requires any high level skills. The good ones are just meticulously organized and prompt. But they basically just relieve you of dealing with nuisance stuff which end of the day isnt that big of a deal anyway. The handyman and contractor stuff is also huge. Between the manager and handyman thats basically your margin if you use any sort of leverage. Which quickly disappears if you're too tight assed or lazy to answer basic tenant inquiries or need to pay someone $150 just to show up because a drain is clogged or dry wall needs to be patched.