Gregmal

Bought some CASH for a quick swing trade. Looks primed for a breakout. Also bought some NKLA puts.

I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.

Yea I was wondering what if any % of things was related party transactions or shit getting settled in stock or distributed from the fund, but still....why not cheer for the home team? I ve been pretty clear on what I think their chances of succeeding are, but still.

I kind of agree with Xerxes. Getting it "right" after 5-10 years of sitting on big losses isnt getting it right in my book. A good friend once said to me(this is a high level exec at a small cap company, not a market wizard) "everyones right in the stock market if you hold long enough"...The goal is to maximize IRR. Given they got a mulligan here, take it and run and hope to move on to something else that maybe they do a better job with. I mean they already had a huge whiff on BB. Dont make the same mistake twice.

Those are some balls.

It also, if you want to take a bit of a leap in terms of logic, explains why they were able to come up with a vaccine so quickly, and also probably is marginally positive in terms of deducing that the vaccine is safe. There's also probably something to be said of the rumor that China had a vaccine going out in March of last year. And mysteriously their cases all but stopped. There's so much to this that deserves exploration, but they've all moved on cuz they used it to get what they wanted and now that they have its in their interest to change the subject.

I don't disagree, but I think that there's just so much to learn form this whole thing, and it doesnt seem like the majority of people learned anything. In fact I'd say they proved themselves to be dumber or more gullible than I could have imagined. There's always known and unknown variables out there that need to be underwritten into ones projections/models. Willfully ignoring them is dangerous. We cant spend the entire summer and fall fear mongering about the safety of the vaccine, and then all of a sudden turn around and tell everyone "oh its safe"...and then ridicule people for being skeptical. We cant allow people to purposely peddle a false narrative, refuse to investigate other theories, and then when they're wrong, just move on to the next story. The biggest expose in all of this was the unreliability of government officials, experts, and media. Their willingness to lie, harness something like this for personal gain/attention, and then just change the story and tell everyone to move on. Its horrendous.

Added some Z, BIDU, VIX calls, PTON puts, SPCE puts

Eh there was more than enough there to at least investigate, even from the onset. Instead, it was actively covered up and purposely not pursued. Even worse, it was deliberately emphasized that people should be discouraged from pursuing the Wuhan lab leak theory by many. And now it looks like the cover has been blown off and they're being exposed...but we won't even get a mea culpa or apology from these scumbags...they'll just move on to the next narrative they want to push and the only hope is that there's enough people out there who arent brainless enough to fall for it again. I mean event tangentially, I know Asian hate crimes are now a hot topic(finally), did it help or hurt that the media spent the first 12 months of this thing peddling the narrative that this originated because a bunch of Chinese people were eating bats or some shit at a dirty flea market? When in reality it was likely something that escaped from a lab that the US was funding....imagine that?

I added a few puts going out to Dec/Jan. Seems the fanboys are getting desperate. The majority of the run up was fueled by things like today's JMP upgrade and story telling. Similar to when this did 15% on an index inclusion and some saw it as a major fundamental achievement. If tech stabilizes this probably will too. But in terms of a hedge with event driven features to it, this fits the bill.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/26/fauci-facing-gop-calls-for-resignation-amid-wuhan-lab-controversy/ This is actually quite breathtaking. No, not another Fauci flip flop, but the fact that once again we have a scenario where some folks said it was likely lab leaked early on. What happened? They were disparaged, ridiculed, called conspiracy theory nuts, and even censored and silenced by the elitist scumbags. Now...turns out they were probably right, again. What do we know though? Follow the science right?

Come on man, you want to/might have put on some kind of short on SPG but you're neutral on SRG? Never short best of breed, even within a crappy sector. Short the junk. Not saying SRG is junk...not saying it isnt either!

Its funny but I always think of 3 things when I see LearningMachine post. Interest rates, stock compensation, management shenanigans. 3 super important things and it often seems like 95% of the posts on this site concerning those subjects, are his. Keep it up. Also reminds me of the Big Short scene where the rabbi is freaking out because "he's trying to find inconsistencies in the word of God!"...

I'd imagine thats the same pupil, aka Seritage Slayer, slicing and dicing up the dudes Twitter thesis...LOL Otherwise, its just perplexing how once again, "I used Mohnish's calculation as a guide"...is the guiding factor for all these people. Can anyone do their own work? This continues to have all the hallmarks of a bad investment. I mean even using that poorly put together Twitter thesis, your bull case is what? SRG is worth what it was trading at a couple years ago?? When all the same characters owned it and pounding the table and were banking on more or less than same thesis? Can anyone honestly answer why you wouldnt just buy HHC? Deep down, if you truly understand the investment and mechanics necessary for this to work, its almost impossible not to conclude HHC covers all the same bases but gives you a much more favorable risk/reward profile.

BIDU

If rates go to 6 and all else remains equal, probably, yea that causes some hiccups. But thats generally not the case and rates move up as other variables follow. You'd probably have significant wage increases for one which negates much of the 1-4 scenarios. A bigger interest payment is not really that big of a deal. Two, you have so many people still currently on the sidelines, that FOMO and BTFD will come into effect. Next leg of things is decreased regulation/lending requirements, which is the only way to make housing attainable for more people.

I stumbled upon the key piece of the puzzle. Master plan revealed. No Capex required. Lease all properties, as is, as covid centers. Sell for 3 caps. $50 per share incoming.

100%. I think you only want to be concentrated if you have a great deal of certainty/conviction and can basically get to a point where your thesis cant be killed. For all investors, but especially new ones, concentration is great, but it can also be deadly. Risk management and position sizing are way more important than probably even fundamentals. Lets get real, you can buy the biggest piece of shit fraud or whatever, and if its a 1% position, you're going to be fine. It may even be valuable "tuition". 10%+...you can probably recoup, especially if you are younger...but thats where it starts getting hard. The secret to winning life is simple, just dont fuck up. Or as Buffett says, rule number 1.

As I said in the OP, this should be 10-15 bags over the next decade. Book it.

Insiders certainly dont seem to share the same enthusiasm.

100%. The deception is staggering and makes the mortgage docs that led up to GFC look tame. Why is whats in the paperwork they force you to sign(on the spot, very little time to read) so much different in narrative than what they're shouting from the rooftops, blasting on the radio waves, and holding celebrity endorsed concerts for? If they are this certain, why won't they let you hold them accountable if anything goes wrong?

I would actually discourage any new investor from worrying about accounting in the beginning. For one, its boring as shit. And more importantly, I know wayyy too many people who thinking investing is 100% based upon "the numbers" when the truth is that the numbers are merely a % of the pie/equation that ultimately drive everything. Best example is the company YOU thought was overvalued based upon "the numbers" when in reality it was cheap and YOU made the analytic mistake because YOU were focused on the wrong components. Most obvious examples, GOOG and AMZN for two decades...Worry about the accounting later on. Most accounting is stupid easy to learn/understand anyway. If you dont know it you can look it up/figure it out later generally with little more than a google search or asking a friend who does it. Books like Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, the Market Wizards series(especially the early ones), and even a favorite of mine that is underrated, Bull! A history of Boom and Bust by Maggie Mahar, are great and exciting books on investing.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-governor-apologizes-apparent-social-074341180.html Rules for thee, but not for me. To quote scumbag, "Yesterday, I went with friends to a local restaurant. As more people arrived, the tables were pushed together. Because we were all vaccinated, we didn't stop to think about it", the governor said. Perhaps its time to stop "thinking about it" and just use common sense. Even sheeple can do it.

Ive seen similar around me but it just leads to massive price increases. Same as all the concern with sporting events, concerts, theme parks, etc...covid and the restrictions plus follow on effects of all that just created a very easy path to returning and having huge pricing power due to demand characteristics. If people will put in new floors or do additions to their homes when lumber is up 4x from a year ago, they'll pay 50% more for a concert ticket or 30% more for Tex-Mex or Italian food. What triggers people to become price sensitive again is what I am looking at. Even as people re-enter the workforce, many of these people are low intellect/skill types. Otherwise they're not collecting benefits. It may create a downward pressure on certain job associated wages, but it most likely won't lead to price decreases to the consumer. Its supply and demand to a degree but once businesses get you willing to pay something they never really relinquish it, especially in todays day and age where industry dominance is very much consolidated. Where I lean right now is that you're going to have fast inflation/low rates for a bit, then rates will have to kick up, but again, not crazy high...so maybe 3-5%...and then modest inflation. Some stuff will do better than others obviously. And no, I dont think 6% mortgages kill housing demand, at all.

Yea I dont think we get a melt down of any grand proportion. For one thing, theres just too much liquidity in the system. Its why ARKK and non FANG tech crap is just kind of slowly deflating rather than crashing. But this also feels different. Not in the sense of "this time its different" but in the sense that while there is definitely speculative excess and exuberance in some places...it seems more isolated. Crypto can go to hell(interestingly I think crypto has minted more poor and middle class wealth than anyone wants to admit), tech euphoria can burst....but in terms of every day life and all that...I think people are doing "well" finally. I dont see many people with multiple spec houses or 500 FICOs taking out SI IO mortgages...In a strange way it almost kind of seems like things are in a good spot. There's always hand to mouth types and of course when housing is hot there's dipshit mortgage guys/agents/contractors flaunting wealth. But I think we currently have a very high standard of living here in the states. And I kind of think its sustainable in the sense that labor market's supply/demand imbalance are going to start really rewarding people. Housing will continue rewarding people. Infrastructure spending will help people. There will be ups and down and like I mentioned the post before, we clearly arent at the bottom of the cycle anymore....so be cautious as always...but it also seems like there's some pretty good tailwinds in certain places.