Gregmal

Yea I like this a lot and theyre exceptionally well run. I started a thread some years back on the old site and meant to bump it a few weeks ago but it seemed like it was gone. All these guys do is focus on per share value. Look at the shares outstanding vs the net income over the years. Beautiful.

Yea I think its an unstoppable event really. You hear the poor puppets from Joe's office being asked questions about all the inflation they are creating and the answers are dumbfounding. I was listening to Bloomberg radio the other week and his spokeswomen 1) refused to admit they were causing inflation, 2) refused to admit that inflation could be very bad, and 3) that this was anything more than a short term demand bump. This is fine and well and all, but with respect to the markets, you cant fight fate. You've established a system where hedge funds and traders have virtually an unlimited arsenal at their disposal in terms of firepower. Bill Hwang on steroids in its entirety. And once they start attacking something or see too much of a good thing can be had(let alone more) at an artificially absurd and manipulated price....you get some crazy things. Will be interesting for sure but the longer the politicians and Fed pretend like there's no smoke, the bigger the fire will get. Pendulums swing hard. I remember thinking during the covid crash how "shit, when we come back from this its going to be super extreme and to the upside(and fun!)" basically the opposite of what transpired going down...now my fear is what lies ahead once we swing back from a convergence of very dominant and both short and long term trends...IE stimulus, low rates, lack of consequences for extreme risk taking, etc.

So just from an observational standpoint, things are pretty interesting right now. Inflation is definitely here. Costs are soaring...but I am also not noticing anybody except financial people being bothered by it. Was with the kids and in laws out on the lake this weekend, and a few big observations.... First, WHOA, if you have a longer term approach, cycles are very easy to see happening. When I moved to the area I live, I bought my first boat in 2014 and no one wanted boats and the lake was crowded(most popular lake in NJ) but not crazy. Even now, we're still basically in early preseason, everyone has a boat, marinas are packed, midday on the lake on a weekend is a nightmare. In favor...Out of favor. I ve had the same thought over time in a lot of other areas. Sometimes on a short sighted basis, its hard to discern where we are in the grand scheme of things, but when you step back I think its really easy. Another point of caution as far as the markets go. Despite lumber costs soaring, building is booming. All over the lake and surrounding areas you have additions being done, new houses replacing old ones....if increases, and big freakin increases is hurting people...I just dont see it. Everyone is doing well. The "big truck douchebag index" is at a high I havent seen in maybe 15 years. Also soaring is the "moneyed up meathead with gold chain, barbed wire tattoo, LVMH/Gucci attire, leased Cadillac or Maserati index"....If whats going on right now isnt hurting people....what needs to change? While I agree stimulus is playing a role, its not buying boats or new cars(that I know of)...yes financing is key, but thats been there for a while. If the Fed budges things 1-2%, is that really hurting people? Frankly I'd rather have a 2.5% 10 yr than $10 for a pressure treated 2x4.

Pretty staggering. Who wants to deal with this mess? Answer....probably not many, and fewer and fewer. Come to Miami and Dallas people and business, they actually want you.

MSGS, JOE

Haha yea much of that is true. I would also point out that more often than not the people complaining about quality of posts often bring very little of anything, let alone quality, to the table themselves. For a while a few months ago I recall a few people who rarely posted anything, and when they did it was just politics, making this claim. Basically freeloaders wanting more free shit lol. I find the site a great collective resource much like Spek stated. Same goes for people who complain that they dont find it useful for new ideas or dont find anything actionable/worthwhile....HUH?!?! Just in the past bit I can recall, you have shit ranging from wabuffo's masterful walkthrough on Garret Motion bankruptcy, to 150 bagger Enphase, or even boring shit like pupil and I talk about on AIV or JBGS.... people really cant find anything useful??? They're either full of it, lazy, or intellectually challenged. Even lately where the market has been fickle and ideas sparse, theres multiple ways to skin a cat. Ive been shorting PSTH puts for Aug/Sept. Its not sexy or going to be huge money, but 1.5-2.5% against the $20 liquidation inside of a few months is an OK IRR, better than nothing and pretty risk free. Its likely free cash because a deal probably doesnt close by then even if you announce Monday, or worst case you owns Bill's grand idea at a discount to IPO....You just have to look and not be lazy/scared. Understand that the market and ideas dont just fall into your lap on a platter and if you need to be in your comfort zone all the time you're going to underperform. If people want to complain about quality while freeloading themselves...who cares about people like that? If they cant find useful ideas or anything actionable in a literal sea of money being made...again, why is that anyone else's problem? If they're lazy, well start putting in the work. If they're bad investors or simply too risk averse for the market....well there's Cds and savings accounts....dont know what else to say.

Been shorting a few PSTH Aug and Sept $20 puts.

Yea the same shit regarding a crypto bear case basically gets regurgitated every time there's a pullback. Nothing new. Its what makes a market.

Eh, personally I am pretty against seeking/being compensated for participation or content. I also agree with you and chuckle on the "10 year old book report" stuff. Sometimes thats all thats necessary. WS/finance people love sophisticated and complicated, detail oriented presentations, spreadsheets, and all that useless junk. Personally Ive found that quite often a 1-ft hurdle or really good investment is simple and easy to see. If you look at a lot of different stuff, you need to be able to filter it and take short cuts. So even then, you dont have to be precise...if something is trading at 65 and the focus is whether its worth 88, 96, 99, or 107, does it really matter the exact value or is "roughly 30-50% upside" all you need to know? Getting information out there and prompting conversation is what gets things moving and why places like this are great. If people want to get super granular, they can, thats fine too. If others dont have the time, that fine as well. If people think their thoughts are "too valuable" to waste here, who cares, fuck em. And if you really need the money, get a better full time job lol.

A loose theory of mine is that the covid fueed tech boom was the final blow off top phase of that bull market and not only will it unwind, it will lead to a new bull market on the back of rising rates, infrastructure spending, and inflation. So far its playing out. Unfortunately for me, this means Im going to have to start getting comfortable with energy and commodity names; both of which I absolutely abhor.

Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash.

I want to like companies and situations like this and by itself the business isnt a bad one; but the problem with stuff like this is the culture thats embedded. Its very hard to eliminate that, and it just gradually erodes shareholder value. Everyones got their hands in the cookie jar and then one day you turn around and have a GE/IBM situation.

I would think in theory the Grayscales should all trade at discounts. And that the discount should increase as more products or similar nature become available to investors.

Thats definitely accurate if this plays out, however I personally dont have what I'd call a high conviction opinion on the probability of that. This run up was highly predictable. Where it ends, or if it ends, I dont know so the process really is about allocation wisely and managing the risk. Even something like XRP....I bought a tiny spec position the weeks and days leading into the delisting(or whatever its called for this crap) at the major exchanges. The thesis was simple. 1) The SEC case was either nonsense or would get settled favorably. The SEC doesnt kill companies. 2) I think XRP is worthless crap 3) I could be wrong about #2 4) 2 or 3 won't matter in terms of the timeline for the trade Ultimately it was easy for me to have higher conviction in 1,3, and 4 than I did in 2. Even after the big crash XRP has gone from 30c to 1.25 in a few months on favorable developments in the case and we have yet to see a verdict in the case and reinstatement of widely accessible trading. But the process was easy and the same was the setup just with different variables for the BTC run following 2017. Easy. Which is why I just think people who sit around devoting tons of time to bashing this or criticizing something without putting any skin in the game are fools. Theyre almost intentionally passing up free money. I am not a huge believer in crypto and Ive managed to cash out nearly 2x my initial investment and still have about 4x times the initial investment freely riding. You've managed to pay off what? Like 3 mortgages lol? Where it ends, who know? But it'll be fun nonetheless. As always, managing risk and position sizing is probably the most important element when putting money to work. But that won't stop plenty of people from sitting around whining and harping on the wrong stuff.

If you are into biotech, the Baker Brothers are probably as solid a starting point as you'll get.

I dont think you want to be a dip buyer. 1) It could be a bubble or whatever...who knows? If it is, this very well could have been the peak, there were a lot of markers that point to it. My theory was that 2017 retail was retail driven, then next boom would be corporate/institutional. Who is left? 2) Wait at least until there is stabilization and its not on the front page everywhere. Buy tiny amounts over a stretched period of time. 3) Since there is no real value here, only way to trade it on a price basis is probably irrelevantly significant numbers/technicals..IE Its YTD starting point ~$28k, previously breakout point ~$20k. Other than that no number means anything really. This moves hard in both directions.

Man's weakness has always been pussy. Dudes with money just have an easier time getting it. I dont know that this makes Gates a bad person.

Why would it be concerning? If you have done the work and decided this was a long, it shouldn't really matter. I'm not trying to be a dick here, but a lot of you guys just seem to be following here(cough BABA too). I always advise people to avoid stocks where the elevator pitch involves name dropping someone else. If you've run the numbers and likely outcomes and see significant upside, fuck Lampert. He's been bag holder numero uno here for like nearly two decades.

Interesting to see Tepper cut this substantially, and then loaded up on energy stuff. Some people just know how to make money, for everyone else, there's value investing...

added a bit more JOE

Here's another interesting story. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/eric-clapton-blames-propaganda-disastrous-212342775.html And I totally agree. Its almost sickening turning on anything from Bloomberg radio, to z100, and constantly being bombarded with pro vaccine propaganda. Seeing places like Facebook literally ban anyone from questioning the vaccine or removing people who post things like "my body, my rights" in relation to the shot, after having no problem with the phrase for ages. Force fed only one side of things...definitely not the democratic or respectful way to go about it. I have gotten the vaccine myself, but constantly hearing this sort of crap makes me completely understand and even sympathetic to people who are skeptical. Forcing views or jamming things down peoples throats just creates the opposite reaction. A classic, stupid government move. Better plan for vaccinations would be to encourage companies/employers to peddle them. Seeing the government targeting, big tech censoring, and campaigning like this is almost Orwellian.

So the CDC greenlights no masks outside...something everyone with a brain knew a year ago...but the worst offenders, ie NY, NJ, CA still require masks. What I want to know, is who's following the science, and who needs a new campaign slogan? Because both cant be correct.

How long does an ACH take? Why do trades still take multiple days to settle? Why do banks still take in some cases DAYS! to clear a check? Ever dug into the uselessness of the margins dept at financial institution? Why do wires take hours to even days? What, now? because they've finally bothered to provide us with the "instant transfer" and charge us 1% for it shit is solved? Chosing to look at the issue like you are above is being deliberately ignorant. I'm not really a huge believer in crypto. As I detailed here, in real time, I saw a trade I thought was outrageously easy and did really well with it. Bought everything with the highest basis being about $11k and have been steadily selling little bits ever since. I still own some, but in no way do I consider this stuff buy the dip material. If you didnt already have a position before it broke $20k I think you're better off waiting til things cool down. But applying some sort of narrow minded and silly ethical application to an investment case is just locking yourself into never making money. People rooting against crypto act is if theyre making money when it goes down(they call it "crashing" but if I had to guess, BTC has crashed its way to better performance than most of its haters have mustered up)...but most I would assume arent making money shorting it...and if you arent trying to understand it, its probably best to just move on rather than wasting time rooting against it for hobby.

Anyone else looking forward to this? May touch on a lot of hot topic subjects from the past year or so. Particularly, why experts often dont know what theyre talking about.

There's not much left on deal announcements it seems...at least right now. LSAQ I had for a while was able to get out of on a deal announcement the other day at 10.70 which was somewhat underwhelming. But even that was snuffed out and now its barely above $10. But its still just placeholder stuff and if replacing cash, a better alternative and if margined at an optimal borrow rate a free call basically. Check out the Baupost and Third Point portfolios. Spac'd to the gills. Those guys are definitely getting IPOs, but now everyone can get them at $10 or less. If you can leverage it or dont have a better use/need for the cash, why not?