Gregmal

Oh its even more than that. Its crazy. PWCC has an index and its destroyed even the S&P over a pretty significant time period. I remember discussing some of this a wee bit ago and Sanjeev mentioned he had bought his nephew a Gretzky OPC 9. If the kid still has it today he's worth a quarter mil. The thing is its a very particular market and even if you're intelligent it requires a lot of different understandings to really get. Which is kind of why the opportunity exists; because its so easy for so many to just write off. But its a hugely lucrative niche. It is probably a good separate thread but if one has little kids and wants to get them financially literate, hands down the best approach is to get them into trading cards. Doesnt even have to be expensive ones, but that will teach them everything they need to know about the financial markets. Things ranging from basic supply and demand, scarcity value, fads(rookies and new product), making a market/negotiating, transaction costs and dealing in illiquid assets, dilution(IE who signs everything put in front of them and who doesnt), all the way down to simply taking care of your stuff(condition is crucial) and processing information and pattern recognition/information sorting.

Yea IDK but if there's one thing we know about Bill Ackman its that he is deeply aware of his imagine and his reputation/ego are very important to him. he isnt going to screw anyone or do anything unfriendly. If you've followed him over the years its clear he kind of views himself as a benevolent, man of the people sorts. It is for that reason that this is a pretty safe SPAC and whatever company he finds will basically just be the equivalent of a real IPO. So I'd probably put a unit in the newco, on deal announcement, at something like $24-26 pretty confidently. Of course it depends if the right holders just get shares AND warrants if they participate, but thats probably were I'd put the right value. $3-5.

^ I'll have you know, the basis of the conversation was actually predominantly inspired by analysis of vintage sports cards. Something I also have a surprisingly large % of net worth in(not huge but like between 5-10% and mainly from appreciation rather than cost basis). Sports teams(MSG) just just so happened to fall into the general category and discussion. Its great operating in markets where the assets are one of a kind, rarely available, cant be replication and priceless to their admirers who's resources are virtually unlimited.

*Starting to come back. Thats the key. From there its still a long ways away from when all the debauchery can take place and cause things to melt up. I'm currently working on a 40 year fixed, stated income, IO first 10 years, sub 5% rate loan. Feel like a total dork getting excited about nontraditional or exotic financial products, but thats pretty awesome we're seeing these products again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/youre-californian-state-wants-cover-160016223.html 1st inning. Expect a long runway and plenty more crap like this...loosening of lending standards, homebuyer programs, etc.

I'd lazily presume something along the lines of 3. BRK would extend the loan and maybe even increase it, but take a pretty grizzly pound of flesh presumably in the form of warrants or convertibles. Since the press, and most normal people dont understand finance, this isnt likely to generate negative headlines..if anything it may even be viewed positively. This seems consistently with previous deals he's done.

In a way, a market like that is probably a pretty good play on the prosperity of the top 1%ers. I was having a chat with a friend last week about the misconceptions around things like sports teams, art, high end baseball cards, etc, and mainly how robust and resilient those markets are, and have been for a very long time, because its a market where participants are basically either not effected to a meaningful degree by recessions, or, like we saw with RE in 09, opportunistic.

Getting a little love. There's your 1%+ inside of a month, or 12%+ annualized, with zero risk. And people say they cant find anything to invest in........

Public + private RE easily north of 75%. You have so much optionality with RE. You can lever it in the safest manner possible. When times are good you can sell and 1031 or just do a cash out refi. You can get a HELOC. When times are bad, assuming you took advantage of the good times, you can then put that money to work or worst case just sit tight with a fixed carry. You are currently in win/win situation. Rates stay low and it has ways to appreciate, rates go higher, the types I am invested in track inflation + some. Cash is trash, bonds are a stupid risk/reward, and equities while somewhat attractive are pricy and outside of that, there's few other options...maybe buying private businesses..but thats a tough game to play.

After looking at the chain, I sold some more of these and then shorted some slightly OTM puts expiring 6/18. Real fat premiums on those.

LOL on the Portnoy stuff. Very true.

Guess someone figured out the warrants lol.

Took 150% of basis off the table. Letting the rest ride. Go make it a MEME now Reddit.

Haha yea I have basically been watching SLG in slow-mo, both in awe and also dismay. I want to own it but the whole time their strategy, especially with the buybacks has been a little too aggressive, only because of the NYC centric nature. I thought part of the allure of ESRT was the balance sheet strength. SLG if it were focused anywhere else I'd probably have pulled the trigger. It was really just a subjective assessment that while ESRT was lower quality on the asset and fundamentals side, the balance sheet strength would be a difference maker. Ultimately though, maybe for good reason, or no reason, its interesting to see the guys running buybacks, ESRT, SLG, significantly outperformed the guys who didnt. My only other NYC type investment outside of the MSG entities is CLPR. And I despite thinking NYC is a problem area, its just so cheap I cant ignore it. However even there....its simple. Headwind vs tailwind. Theres money in both, but why bother moving against friction?

@RichardGibbons, earlier you had mentioned that people who talked about the lab leak back in February of 2020 were rightfully outcast as conspiracy theorists? May I ask why you concluded that? There is and was a lot of circumstantial evidence supporting this. Whereas, can you tell me what facts there were at the time to support the notion that it came from bats at a wet market? Because I am not sure there were ANY at all, and the only things we relied on were sources who have turned out to be liars. I believe @hasilp89post was spot on. It was commendable in that he owned up and basically admitted, "yea I got fooled because I took some of these people and government folks at face value"....he also IMO hit the nail on the head in stating that basically the ONLY reason the lab leak theory was immediately dismissed, is because Trump said it, and everyone as a result immediately had to take the other side and became invested in discrediting it. Do you feel otherwise? While I can understand why someone like @jurgis is averse to these types of conversations, you've always come off as center left but intuitive and capable of seeing and applying fact and deducing what is likely. Why the knee jerk reaction to just label and dismiss such as in your post earlier today? What is the point in that? Is that not basically the root cause of what lead to this entire mess? People just slamming a label onto things they have an interest in manipulating and then the masses fall for it? If you just say "conspiracy theory", "far right/left", "Russian asset", you immediately and successfully condition people to ignore the content? Is that not dangerous? Do you not think there would have been significantly less confusion here if in February or March of 2020 there was a coordinated effect by these same folks to basically admit that hey, it is most likely this is a lab manipulated virus? All this same thought process and deductive reasoning skills are helpful in life as well as with investing. Should people just immediately write off investments because an analyst says its a sell? Its purported to be a pump and dump? Its a Portnoy REIT! or conversely just buy because so and so said its good? Of course not. So I dont understand why we wouldnt apply the same critical thinking lens to other areas of life as well.

No longer own this, but I continue to amazed by the strength and incredible outperformance here vs NYC peers.

Quick idea I thought I'd throw out there....I know Ive already discussed over the past few weeks with many here, but might be worth a thread to brainstorm names or whatever. SPAC warrants are IMO a really simple way to be a contrarian, a speculator, and a value investor all at once. You can size the positions modestly creating a bit of a barbell approach. More or less SPACs are currently toxic. Thus you can now take your pick of the best quality managers at the same prices as the worst ones. Regulation and SEC inquiries should make deals going forward much more conservative Business combinations will likely be on better terms. Companies seeking a spac will prefer a quality sponsor. You can buy warrants which give you a 5 year call at 15% premium to deal price on pretty much whatever you desire for a fraction of what they were trading at months ago and just in general, what I consider a very attractive price. Some examples, Softbank SPAC warrants can be had for $1.50 vs a $6 high earlier. Boston Omaha's Yellowstone can be had for $0.65 vs $2.30 earlier. I think there's definitely bargains and multi baggers to be found as the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater. Cheers

^ But if you dont internally generate cash, your ability and terms with which you have access to capital are limited. Again, just as an example, SPG got like $5B from note sales, IN 2020 during peak covid, at like 2%. Why? Because they are obscenely profitable. With respect to SPG which is embarking on very similar redevelopment projects as SRG, the only question is really, is the IRR going to be worth it. With SRG sure some have already popped in expected IRRs, but the real issue is where do they get the money, or if they even get the money. If you have to get creative you generally end up sacrificing profit. Someone earlier here touched on that they could put the land to the developer in a JV....but this will not yield the type of return everyone is penciling in if they go at it alone.

Hi Rat Clown, If I may ask, what part of seeking the truth or seeking accountability is politics? Are you not recalling how many people hastily dismissed the lab leak theory for the past year? I specifically recall several folks here even trashing another member for posting a Hedgeye story about this last March. Otherwise, if you wish to revert to old habits of trying to get me banned or censored, please just be forthright. The lame attempt above to pressure and manipulate @Parsad is cowardly and in poor taste. I have told Sanjeev on several occasions that I am fine shutting the covid thread if its too controversial however the thread remains open and the lab leak, as well as the behavior and active cover up of many is disgraceful and worth discussing. Otherwise, I appreciate your contributions here as do many others. Your actionable investment ideas are second to none. Thx

My 2c is that the low hanging fruit here was the period where legalization looked imminent federally, but state operators thrived because of regulation and scale benefits. Opening state or even international borders to growers and deregulating is not a game I want to play here. My brief experience with pot co operators is that they'd make E&P guys look like great fiduciaries.

The answer to that is that it shouldn't be approved if this is the case. I have been told that these people "follow the science" but there's plenty of evidence that this isnt true.

Its amazed me how throughout this thing, the "science" guys seem so personally invested in this not being a lab leak. I know part of this is self interest...they love being celebrities and viewed as experts(rather than the nerdy putzes that most of them are), and they probably also fear the funding they rely on would be jeopardized....but its just another example of how many of the people who have played a pivotal role in how this thing has been handled, act out of self interest.

I would point to things like AIV, FRPH or ALCO as, at least what I try to look for. I can own these things and they can push out developments/repositioning of their assets as it makes sense; as its opportunistic, or they can sit on their asses and do nothing and not destroy value. All of the above if they do nothing with respect to the repositioning value thesis, they are still adding value. With SRG you are betting against the clock and something like COVID, or a recession, or any sort of disruption is devastating(hence an earlier comparison was made to SPG some months ago...SPG is back to pre covid levels and SRG is still halved). When you arent profitable, you eventually lose the ability to control your own destiny.

People bring it up because the difference is HUGE. If you are wagering on an asset repositioning play, you need some sort of cash flow. Having stabilized NOI(MAC/SPG, etc) or a business(Macy's for instance) you buy yourself time and during that period your assets can appreciate with the benefits going to the equity. When you lose money, this compounds itself in so many ways that are unfavorable to shareholders. We saw this with SHLD, we saw it to a degree with HHC, with JCP, and with SRG. You cant be running huge operating losses when your end game is repositioning/development. It effects everything from what your cost of capital is, all the way down to simply negating any appreciation in the asset value. I think DDS is a great case study on what can be done with proper capital allocation and a business that does breakeven or better. Its outperformed AMZN which I find incredible. Whereas there is no shortage of these hidden value plays where your operating expenses create a -5-10% annual headwind to your starting NAV.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704227-sen-wyden-calls-biogen-alzheimers-drug-price-unconscionable-in-tweet Its already starting. Let the company spend tons of time, and tons of money researching a breakthrough treatment for a condition we currently dont have much of anything for, and then jump in like a cocksucking leach and give your freeloading 2c about what it should cost.....Basically the government thinks it should let private companies foot the bill for these things and then once approved they just hijack them.