Gregmal

I think the gist of what he is trying to communicate is accurate. I posted in another thread something similar regarding trading, and how its viewed by some. Supply and demand is probably the single most important variable in an otherwise large equation. Thats why some shareholders throw temper tantrums with respect to dilution. There's so many "value" investors who are downright stupid or willfully ignorant when it comes to this. They "dont believe" in trading, and think trading is a "losers game" in the long run. Theyre idiots though. If I dump 3% of a companies shares inside of a day, no duh! it will create a short term imbalance. Now play with this example over different time periods. Its the magic sauce to why something like Dillards is repeatedly such an easy trade to make money on. This can occur on every level of the market from a single stock trade over a 10 second span to multi year(even decade) spans. Of course the fundamentals of the business matter as does your ability to get your money back. They too have a big place in the equation. But its more of a backstop and place of support that will eventually create a supply/demand imbalance. Its why buybacks are a huge beneficiary to long term shareholders. The fundamental idea of a buyback is that at a certain price, the company can exhaust the shares outstanding before it exhausts its assets/runs out of cash.

To that regard on the CRE, one of the things I found respectable is that Mark straight up admitted he doesnt know as much as he'd like about that type of CRE and because of this they expanded the board and brought in Jeffrey Sheets; a guy with 3 decades of CRE experience. Theyre taking their time with it despite already having great interest and offers on the commercial parcels...there is a huge difference in terms of ultimate value creation if you unload today at 20 cents on the dollar just for the sake of monetizing the thing, or hold out 3-5 years and get 100%+. Edit: williams406 beat me to it, but yea. I'm very pleased with how theyre going about everything. Better to take time than rush it.

So apparently just another American media made hoax that Ma is "missing"...not surprising. Like anywhere else, understand the rules of engagement in the game and on the playing field with which you play. Rather simple.

https://spactrack.net/activespacs/

First Id say there is next to no chance they fill the 60k SFE in the next decade. Doing that alone would value the water utility end at close to $2B. You should have the Sky Ranch in its entirety completely within the next decade and realistically probably much sooner. My best guesstimate is ~7 years. By then you'll have the 5,000 SFE which just using residential rates(commercial is much higher) yields a $150M valuation or so plus whatever remaining is ascribed to the optionality on the remaining capacity. They have plenty of ability to add capacity and will likely do small bolt ons like Wild Point. This is independent of O&G revenue and not including tap fees which should produce one time revenue(on the taps) over another $125M. The facilities are all rather new and in very good order. Theres rather minimal maintenance once the infrastructure is in place and typically they've structured it in a way that only requires spending once they have contracts in place for the future revenue. They touch on how most of the spend was already completed in phase 1 which is why(in addition to greater demand) you'll see margins increase. They are a monopoly in the sense that once the home is tapped, whoever lives their pays. Marks touched on this before in that its not regulated in a bad way, but you need to be sensitive to this from a cost perspective. Within continued build out of the area, probably future lot/MPC purchases, and perhaps additions of neighboring rights, you have a lot of optionality. The presentation breaks out your revenue/profit that should be expected in terms of whats directly and individually tied to Sky Ranch. The mineral/O&G is a free call. You also have the $20M+ reimbursable. My back of the envelope estimate is that if the company wanted to, there's probably $130M in available liquidity/spending capacity if the right opportunity came up. However Mark has and continues to be very shrewd and disciplined with allocation. This also doesnt even touch on the CRE avenue which will include mixed use office/retail and large box anchored shopping centers. A simple ground lease with HD for instance is a $25M asset pulled from thin air.

Well I agree I like it when companies put the numbers out fast but also Pure Cycle's year ends on November 30th right? Yea they have a different Q end/fiscal year, but as far as reporting quarterly results, I am fairly certain they are one of the first to report for this "earning season". Something they do often. Would like to see a more formal structure/process. They are getting there. This is a company that 2 years ago didnt even really hold conference calls. It is definitely evolving.

Yea the permitting has been explained and Im sure it will come up on the call tomorrow. Good to see some uptick in fracking revenue too.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18138539-pure-cycle-reports-first-quarter-results One of my favorite things about Pure Cycle is the no nonsense approach to releasing numbers. Quarter over, boom, here's the numbers.

Any of you fine Canadian fellas familiar with the Morguard complex? Been doing some work and started MRG today, but many similarities to BAM. Its funny, but for all the Indian Canadian fund manager love on this site, arguably the most successful, Mr Sahi, never comes up.

Also shorted some RICK $17.5 puts with May expiration.

High level people in the US arent held accountable at all(not that Im saying Ma needed to be held accountable, I dont know). I'd almost prefer a China level system in some cases, if we're going to make the comparison. I'm all against lockdowns and especially the way its been done. But if you are going to do it, do it hard for 4-6 weeks and put a bullet in whoever doesnt listen like China did. Problem solved. The lockdown is the US is comparable to so many other things that we do wrong, and its because of this half assed, appearance only type approach we have. Theres no excuse to be on what? Week 40 of lockdowns in California? IMO China has its flaws as we do, but they get results. Theres an unbelievable American arrogance to the "we do it right cuz DEMOCRACY, and everyone else is wrong" approach. Democracy isnt always the answer. Same as Ive said about todays surveillance and technology. If the government wants to read my emails and text...go ahead. But they better keep me safe.

Started some MRG.UN, also added a few LHSIF. Trimmed about 10% of my VIX call position as well.

Exciting news with the name change. Up there with MagnaChip announcing it changed its name to Magnachip as part of its rebranding effort!

Maybe Ackman can come in and rescue Ripple with PSTH. Certainly knows his way around the SEC. Still by far the owner of the most egregious and blatant insider trade in history and it was settled for a slap on the wrist.

He's Bruce Flatt and they're fidgeting around on Twitter. Enough said. I too never bought BPY, just BAM. I looked at shorting it and in 2.8 seconds came to the conclusion you and others did. You can already see the wide range of ?s here. Perhaps this is a massive take under. Perhaps is done to conceal bigger issues. Perhaps its something else. Who cares? The outcome was reasonable and in a world where even an illegitimate scheme can be prolonged by cleverly shuffling assets around, a good scheme, like BAM, can keep powering on, especially now that the question mark asset goes into the black box.

So without touching on anything fundamental(bc you dont need to), BPY outperformed all its peers, never cut the dividend, and went out on top.... All those super smart, numbers filled short thesis's, were a waste of time. This unfolded exactly as most predicted. A good example of how sometimes the most predictable events are simple in nature and super duper crazy detailed hyper analysis is a waste of time.

This simple what do they do answer is its a modernized payment system/processor. From the site: https://ripple.com/company/ As to how its going to play out. We can deduce a few things. The government almost NEVER kills a company. Next, theres definitively a grey area simply because of the newness of the "asset class" here which means 100% it'll get settled. I mean the supposed function of XRP is to facilitate the use of the Ripple network. So its a bit of a product being sold, but its function is as a currency for its clients, should they be convinced to use it. As we've seen a million times even most recently with Luckin Coffee, settlements are usually a joke even when there is harm to investor. Here its hard to prove there was really any harm done by anyone invested in XRP by anyone other than the SEC. The IPO would definitely get shelved. Fortunately in relation to this, I believe they own the 2019 Preferred issue which does IIRC contain IPO ratchets. It will happen though. Half of Silicon Valley is backing this company. Disclosure: I took a flyer on some private Ripple company shares a few years ago but also think XRP the "currency/coin/thingamajig" is garbage.

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended. I haven’t read the book, but this seems great advice. One thing is sure they happiness doesn’t scale with the money spent. Yup. One of the biggest traps is when ones lifestyle scales up with their earnings. People, even of modest means would be retiring 10-20 years sooner if they just stuck with what they needed and maybe a few toys and were content. The biggest ceiling facing middle America, IMO, is needing to recycle into a new $600 a month car payment every 3 years. That $7200 a year over 25 years, even if you suck at investing and only did 5%, is nearly $400k...Same thing to a degree, albeit with other nuances, with housing.

Up to $17M. Keep it going. Cant understate the importance of small businesses and keeping them alive, they provide jobs and a livelihood to many vs just some stupid stimulus check to individuals that likely gets wasted on discretionary crap and iPhones/sneakers.

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds... Gary One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

On the institutional/product side, there's a lot of whats called a feedback loop. With early stage items, it can be very powerful. Recall how once the first couple institutions or funds finally disclosed being long Tesla, then fast forward a year from then, and everyone was doing it no problem. Imagine now having been one of the first movers in BTC this past fall, and having a +50% mark to market already? Or how about sitting on 20% ytd gains before the markets have even been open for one trading day? I continue to reduce 1-2% of the position after every 10-15% bump or so, but things should really start to get interesting.

Really? One year saving of travel and entertainment can change one's budget on a new home? That's hard to believe. Not at all. In the US the poor man(or hand to mouth fella) needs 3% plus closing costs to get into a home. If you save $20k by not dining out and vacationing, thats a down payment for some, or another half mil+ of home they can buy. I also think there should be entry taxes for states/jurisdictions. Its a big problem here in the US where you have people living in, and supporting the policies and fiscal irresponsibility of one state, and then not liking the bed they've made for themselves, and then collectively moving to, and starting to ruin new states by moving there and bringing their same philosophical issues and problems.

^ This "issue" with XRP, has largely been known and expected to a certain degree, for years. Ripple the company and Ripple coin/token/whatever TF one calls it are different things/issues. Perhaps there is a valuation hiccup at the next funding round, but 0 is farfetched. XRP was really just a mechanism through through which Ripple could print money but hardly XRP=Ripple; which is akin to concluding GS would go to 0 because it issued controversial mortgage bonds in the past.

This is kind of besides the point, but I believe that quote you always see from CNBC about "you gotta be in the market because the 10 best days account for all of the return in any given year". It's such a cherry-picked fact. When did those trading days occur? Probably during periods of heightened volatility where the market was swinging up and down wildly. So in order to get the best trading days you had to stomach the worst trading days too. I've never actually looked at this before, but it confirms my suspicion about the "best trading days" garbage CNBC feeds retail investors. The attachment shows the 2020 trading days ranked in order (by absolute value of returns) and shows you that the best and worst days were clustered around March and April with a few exceptions outside that time. If you state how much of the market return occurs in a few best days, you also need to state how much of a decline you could have avoided being out of the market for the few worst days to make this assessment more symmetrical., yea Im not totally sure and while I find it interesting, I dont totally think its something to read too much into. Just something perhaps to consider. I am almost always 100% or more long and I am almost always positioning my available cash/liquidity to capitalize(market timing I suppose some will call it) on short term opportunity. Can do both I guess. Being out of the market is stupid, as this year showed. In fact, every market downturn has ended up showing this. But its also showed that you need to have liquidity available to really T-up a fat pitch.

+1 of the curveball with kids and WFH. I literally was doing 9:30-4s from my car w/ WiFi for good chunks of the year. Always adapting lol.