Gregmal

Flipped this again, 85-93 in two days. Nothing special, its just what these stocks do.

Election? And here I thought it was just because we are in a massive bubble! I do think overall its quite bullish and a major relief to pretty much everyone who has been deranged(on both sides) to ultimately see a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate, if thats how it shakes out.

Great news. NJ also passed legalization, which green lights AYRs operations there as well.

After a little debating also took Trump to win NH at +275. Anecdotally Ive found NH be unique and the folks there less stupid and liberal than those in MA and CT. Matched it on a payout basis to more or less wash my Biden -170 bet. If Joe wins I win money and if Trump wins NH(regardless) I come out slightly ahead as well. Hedge trade!

+1 I think your best values exist somewhere in between. Where is that place that's been low-priced for a while but maybe new infrastructure or new investment is driving green shoots of development? Maybe you'll be able to buy at a price where there is little to no upside built into the price but there is a reasonable argument that additional redevelopment hits your neighborhood in the next 5 years. I would also make another comparison to the stock market in that its not a housing market as much as it is a market of houses. Everyone has different motivations for selling their home/property so if you can identify a seller who prizes liquidity over the best price, you can get a deal. Maybe not at this exact moment in time with the way the market is, but in general things don't move so fast that you can't find people who need liquidity. I recently advised my friends to buy a house in a certain part of Charlotte where 2,000+ sq ft homes were selling for less than $250,000. The area recently had some new infrastructure (a transit rail) put in, there has been some early momentum in prices in the area, and you can see some evidence of people renovating or flipping homes. It also is an area that has historically been considered a bad part of town, and I wouldn't be surprised if you see suspicious characters walking the main roads sometimes and maybe the shopping in that immediate area isn't that great but you're 15 minutes from downtown Charlotte. My buddy instead chose to buy a $400,000 home that had been renovated somewhat in a part of town that is not that great in my opinion, is farther from downtown, but is closer to other areas that have recently developed. It's too early to tell who is "right" but I think many people are uncomfortable being uncomfortable. In real estate, your friends might joke around and call you a slumlord, and no one is going to look at the homes you buy and say "Wow" but these areas that are on the fringe of development have been very successful for me. What part of town are you talking about? Where the gold line extension is going in? What you are talking about might be sitting in St. Joe territory! Ive long owned shares, but no more. Ive flirted with buying some land out there, but haven't. That said, if you're looking for an inflection story, the Panhandle in FL is probably one of your best bets.

I will totally be the guy jumping in that thing when they finally hold another investor day again, something they did annually up until covid...

Yes sir. So this is part of why this can screen like shit. You had phase 1 for example showing roughly a mid single digit margin on the lot sales but the unaccounted for figure is the reimbursement which has a kicker in that it accrues interest at 6.5% IIRC. Add in the tap fee, currently a hair under $32k a home but subject to increases and theres a lot more profit than first glance. Ballpark on the recurring revenue from water fee is $1500 per home. As a landlord, I can tell you this fluctuates quite a bit. I have units that are the same where a water bill may be $300 per quarter, and another may be $600. Mark's estimates have typically been on the conservative side, which is why I would expect the phase to be completed sooner than the mentioned 4 years. G&A as Ive mentioned, is about $3.5m, which is great with me given some of the other companies of similar size/market cap Ive been involved with.

Yield or growth? Not much different than the stock market. Like the stock market, there are in betweens as well.

I love Dillards, but I wouldn't dare waste time trying to justify it as a true investment. Appreciate it for what it currently is, one of the best trading/event driven stocks in the market.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18069932-pure-cycle-corporation-announces-contracts-for-sale-of-lots-in-2nd-development-filing-sky Christmas comes early. All around excellent.

Its a curious development for sure, but a temporarily headwind most likely. I picked up a few more shares pre market.

It just depends on your risk/speculation tolerance but when I started it I had the basket a hair below 10%. I reduced along the way as I always try to recoup my original investment as fast as possible(at least when I am pretty blatantly speculating) while maintaining a respectable exposure for myself. I cut the basket down to about 2% towards end of 2019 and early 2020. Kicked it back up to about 5% during the Gift of Covid Firesale and have basically just been trading around a core since. The thing I'd focus on is really just staying up to date with the people involved and the progress being made to market as well as the institutional partners. CRSP is a clear leader. But the science/application end is evolving so something like RPTX could be interesting. If you are a normal dude and not filthy rich I think I'd probably just say chuck $5-$10k per name at a select few and let it ride while peeling off your original capital hoping to eventually trade your way into some free shares or maybe check out some ARKG although with that its got the exposure but I hate their concentration and conviction in NVTA, despite having made a lot of money both long and short in that name, I think fundamentally it's a Ponzi scheme and its one of ARKs largest holdings. EDIT: I'd clarify on the allocation amount, depending on where you are in your earnings life cycle, maybe take a couple months worth of salary as your benchmark. Its different for everyone so 2% of portfolio if you're 60 is different than if you're 40 or 20. So is 5-10K per name. So I'd say the lesser of 2% as a basket or a few months of salary...although just be warned I hate giving uniform investment advice and its really just individual preference to which my preference can and sometimes are very different than that of others....

Would love to hear your thesis on CRSP? I wrote up the theme a few years ago, I believe it was here. But basically you've got a massive TAM, very long duration runway before anything(positive or negative) will come to fruition, and just continuous positive news flow. CRSP has the best combination of reputable partners and respected scientists on board and is way ahead of the pack in terms of advancing a product(CTX001) to market. Dig around a little in the field(I have a lot of family and friends who work in the space) and you'll repeatedly hear about how CRISPR is basically a once in a generation breakthrough and that the majority of future work being done in a lot of areas utilizes a CRISPR platform. There's non guarantee which company holds the monetization key to all of this, or even if the existing court rulings stand; you've also got an evolving platform as the targeting techniques evolve...but again, your runway is long and there should be quite a bit of money to be made trading these things along the way. I think when I first wrote up as few of these CRSP was around $30 or something. EDIT 20s and NTLA lows teens. Since then you've gotten BEAM and also RPTX come public. Ive got a few shares in nonpublic companies as well. If there was ever a sector/theme where you just want to sprinkle money and then wait for the 10+ bagger, its here IMO.

I do like his style. The "Looting Basket" lol.

Glutton for punishment, eh? Welcome to the club.

Added back a smidge of CRSP. Guessing its down because Biden again vowed to cure cancer....

Sold my small over the weekend OTM call position on SPY. Added a bit of the proceeds into Nov 20 puts, paid down some margin, and wired out a small amount to buy some Biden -170 at the sports book.

Perhaps Im just being obtuse again, but despite the fanfare for these I think its a do you like cheeseburgers, filet mignon or otoro sushi type of question. These each have vastly different profiles. Berkshire is clearly the filet. Its good, everyone likes it, and you cant really go wrong. I think it will perform accordingly. BAM is much more exotic and probably not for everyone, but IMO would do best of the bunch. Fairfax I think is the cheeseburger; likable and affordable, but the verdict is out on whether its from the dollar menu or Bobby Flay's...

I think something in the entertainment area works. LiveNation is probably the closest pure play in an absolute sense. Probably a little too scary for many at this point, but Ive always done ok in my career/investments seeking out the best of breed in a space that is hated but carrying a flawed narrative. Many LiveNation events are also outdoor, so that should occur regardless next spring. If you write-off this fall/winter and assume its priced in, I would think you are good to go by next season. Young people arent scared of the virus the way old people and science nerds are. If you let them do concerts they'd be back tomorrow. So demand is definitely there.

Yea I was loosely referring to many of the transactions discussed in the VNO, PGRE threads. The sales data has been limited but what has been there has been no where near the implied public market valuations. And outside of the sales you can look at refi rates and the valuations posted to those and its a very similar story. Ive followed much more closely some of the retail stuff and a strong lease in a good area will net a cap rate in the ballpark of what you'd have expected pre covid. Some have even eclipsed those prices. The non premium stuff, yes, there is a huge spread. So on something like a Chipotle ground lease in a good MSA you're getting a 4 cap, you might see a Wendys in a lesser area at 7. But the public markets currently seem to be pricing everything as low quality junk. As I made a Tesla comparison earlier, I started to think about BPY in that context as well. Not with a negative connotation or anything, but simply on the basis of what TSLA did with SCTY. If that can be pulled off, it really wouldn't be an issue for BAM to pull something similar with BPY. If BPY goes away and then just becomes muddled in there with everything else for the accountants to play with....that probably changes things a little bit.

I think PCYO is unique and to itself sort of an insulated special situation. Denver area is special and in addition to having unique and key assets they have very understated local influence and relationships that could eventually be beneficial. It hasn't really been impacted by the stuff plaguing most reits and residential is in a great place. You also have big call option with the 1M sq/ft potential commercial development here. Favorably expected to come into light in several years, rather than right now. In regards to JBGS, I think its hard to compare to PCYO, but on a larger scale on the safer and higher quality end of the REIT/RE recovery play. Just using ones that stick out to me, I'll create the spectrum. Its ARE/JBS/VNO. So at the top, you have something(ARE) insulated by an in favor theme, geographically diverse, and something that will subsequently provide an adequate result for your capital, consistently. Then you have JBGS which is dealing will short term "issues" but otherwise favorable conditions and regionally favorable tailwinds that just need to be shaken out and time will cure this. Lastly, you have VNO which is hated, in a terrible short term place, and has every narrative going against it. But it also has the greatest room for recovery and if you believe the "when not if" theory for NYC you cant really go wrong here but you also have to give up the expectation that you are going to be seeing green(or green shoots for that matter) anytime soon. Most people, are simply too short sighted and incapable of buying something mentally if there is a high likelihood it will be lower tomorrow; let alone a month of few from now. Its one of the harder things to do but a massive advantage to real investors. It also helps if you are capable of viewing you shares as ownership in a business and subsequent addition of shares as great if they come cheaper than the last. Buffett often talks about getting excited when stocks go down. The average person shits their pants. Even the above average, as we saw here in March, shits their pants at the thought of 30-60 days of pain(let alone more). I generally ask myself, "do you need the capital tomorrow?" and if not, then "why does it matter?". So all of this really just comes down to you mindset and tolerance for dealing with businesses/assets vs paper valuations and short term losses. Summarily, JBGS is kind of the pussy way to capture the real estate recovery. Significantly higher quality and better located than the NYC/SF stuff but also better positioned for upside than the stuff that has held up well. I would refer to pupils work on JBGS for the nitty gritty, but its hard to argue against here, or hopefully, a bit lower. Great assets. Great area. Huge spread to 10yr vs the historical norms.

You can find Dan's background through the firm site and other places like LinkedIn(or doing more extensive work calling around and seeking out those that know him) but I think what I find most impressive was the well roundedness if you will, of his abilities. The quick loop is that he was a part of several very successful funds at Janus, left, had them beg him to come back, and then after knocking the cover off the ball, started back off on his own, with Janus then becoming a Plaisance investor. When people talk "track records" or "resume" in this line of work, the first level thought is always "whats the 1/3/5 yr performance". But if you've developed a deeper understanding of what makes things work, you will look at a multitude of factors, well before the 1/3/5 etc. Especially important is the understanding required to navigate a long/short fund. One of my favorite VIC posters is Bluewater12. There is an inherent beauty to the fluidity and ability to pivot as information comes ones way. Most investors get way too hung up on stale narratives. Successful long/short guys get this. As an example I'd look at something like BAM as its the easiest example. A few years ago it had gimmicky accounting, and aggressive exposure to some troubled areas but otherwise a great and undervalued business. A year ago it had the same, but the valuation was much greater with few opportunities in a richly valued market. Today, its cheaper than a year ago, with more capital than ever, and many current and future opportunities in areas they possess expertise. Meanwhile there are still many people and funds/institutions sharing the same trite narrative they have for years. Their narrative hasn't changed but the real time situation is always evolving. This was one of the main allures to Pure Cycle was the narrative shift from a turd to a very high quality growth business. I'd also again point to Mark Harding...a stud of a CEO who has taken on every role imaginable here from IR to CFO in order to keep the company lean. One of the more amazing facets here is G&A and how low its managed to be over the years.

The Plaisance Pure Cycle stake is largely held in a single asset SPV which has defined terms and a clearly outlined purpose for the capital. It will likely sell at some point, but not anytime soon given the fund was established barely a year ago, was purchasing stock earlier in the quarter, and at minimum, has a multi year lockup.

Good thing you removed him from the ignore list again! Haha. Its weird but I do kind of agree with him, cant argue too much against any of that, but also own a position in the shares because I see the other side as well. People talk about reputation, and they often think "integrity" or some sort of moral compass based definition. In the financial world, reputation can take on different things. Tesla has become what it is off the reputation, otherwise known as pixy dust for the people who need to quantify everything, of Elon Musk. Flatt and BAM have this is spades and maximize its utilization which is very powerful and goes a long way. They also have become big enough to bully around lenders and smaller players which is another advantage. I like that so I put a little money on this continuing and if it does, they should have no problem operating as they have, which has been very lucrative for everyone involved.

No problem. Even if talking to myself at times, its helpful putting things out there to get conversation going, especially on off the radar names. On the large holder(s), as I touched on earlier, many have been in here for almost a decade from $3 or share or so. Different funds have different strategies and timelines but at the end of the day the truthful answer is "who knows". My personal touch would be "who cares". Having spent a few minutes in the biz, I can tell you, that with the exception of perhaps someone like Berkshire, people sell(and you'd be surprised to hear, buy too) all the time for many reasons and most of the time its not really all that important to get too caught up dissecting. I know Par firsthand and they are very detailed and value oriented. They've been a long time holder who has pared down significantly. The best guess probably relates to the transformation that has occurred during that timeframe. Pure Cycle in 2010-2014 was basically a perpetual money loser, with debt, who needed to raise expensive capital to make a measly $7M acquisition. Pretty yucky. Someone buying into that, and seeing it through to what it is today, is likely writing up a very different risk/reward/investment profile. Today you are buying much more certainty. To boot, as some exit, you have Plaisance, who has been an aggressive buyer, backing up the truck. Their track record is nothing to sneeze at either. But overall, I'd say, its Wall Street. People pass around shit all the time for many reasons, and for few. Shares prices can be all over. Just focus on what you own and if you properly allocate with a bit of patience, things usually work themselves out. Earnings are soon as well. I would think we get updates on phase two and also FY guidance perhaps for taps and lots. The biggest issue of late has been the 4-6 week backlog at muni wrt permits.