Gregmal

I believe they mandatorily split so unlike most spac, there is no unit anymore. Its just the shares with no warrant attached(outside of post deal) and then the ws. I do agree the options are interesting. Would imagine there is some sort of real world advantage to a deteriorating market for Bill Ackman and his ability to find a target company.

Closed this out. 10% on shares and 6.50-8.xx on the warrants in a month not bad for a cash alternative. Will keep an eye on this but the risk/reward is significantly less attractive here now, IMO.

Its entertainment and not much more. Sanjeev already said its gone September 1. I assume thats been pushed back a little but should be happening soon. No need for people to get butthurt about it. I do see some get so sore they refuse to even engage on the investment side of things, but who cares. Its not like the ones Ive noticed doing that have much to offer anyway. To each their own. Learning to accept and be tolerant to differing viewpoints is a necessity in life. Nothing wrong with engaging them either. Echo chambers suck in both investing, and in politics.

More interesting narrative Headline: FLORIDA COACH WHO CALLED TO PACK STADIUM TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID footnote: Mullen, his family, and every UF player whom has tested positive is described as experiencing either "mild, or no symptoms"...carry on!

Yea as mundane as it sounds in the world of craft beers, Sam Adams Octoberfest is pretty reliably awesome. Like Spaten Oktoberfest as well.

https://therealdeal.com/miami/2020/10/16/seritage-sells-hialeah-shopping-center-for-21m/ Interesting transaction here. Noticed they've been doing a bunch with Four Corners as well. Perhaps interesting in the context of develop..sale/leaseback strategy. Typically you see these trade much differently. I would imagine they are probably getting better value being on the hook for a longer duration and a "guaranteed" clip. But the downside is obviously that you see Bed and Bath close, or another big tenant or two leave and you're bleeding out again. Time will tell I suppose. If I'm buying the asset from them, I like this. If I'm SRG, I guess its better than not sell it at all or selling it straight up(high cap/less cash). My understanding is that down the line they can buyout the lease as well...typical of developers looking for liquidity.

Apparently not all types of office, city or not is struggling. Pretty incredible gain(all things considered) on a 4 year investment given the backdrop of everything else. ARE continues to look pretty damn good. https://therealdeal.com/2020/10/16/blackstone-bets-big-on-life-science-buildings-with-14-6b-deal/

SharperDinegaan has to be in the running for Dos Equis next "most interesting man in the world". Great story as always.

Oh yea, the Fenway sale was egregious. I owned RBACU and couldn't sell it quick enough on Monday. I would sum that up as a classic SPAC deal, and hesitate to use it as a basis for other valuations. The warrants seem like a tempting short.

I looked. And there is almost no criticism of Trump in Feb/March. He is the President of the United States. He's going to get criticism (even if he did everything right). But blatant Trump-bashing was exceptionally rare on this thread. My guess is that you are recalling conversations from other threads. No need to bash Trump, the man is fully capable of speaking for himself this subject: “Just the other day, they came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wear masks catch it” “A lot of people say masks are not good, I’ll tell you who those people are, waiters.” "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any' When the overwhelming majority of people who test positive dont even know they have it or experience symptoms in line with seasonal allergies....then yea, it gets to a point where creating boogeymen isn't really productive. Especially when all those nothing burgers get translated into "OMG look at all the people testing positive!" across newsfeeds everywhere. A lot of people had breakfast this morning. Some didnt. Some might have choked on their food and experienced discomfort....But we dont attach negative superpowers to breakfast, nor do many people scream "AGH!" when they hear/see the word.

Cut 1/3 of BEAM

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March. Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die. Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up. I'll go ahead and agree that this is the perception of a sizable proportion of people and decision makers. There may be little to change that perception apart from there being so many cases that mortalities go up above spring highs and/or hospitals are overwhelmed. The question I'd ask you is what data or events will it take to change that opinion, if any? For me, if there are lower mortalities and serious hospitalizations through the winter, no matter how it happens, I'll be happy to change my opinion. My take on it is that is part of what is enabling the virus to continue to spread leaving the US in a precarious position going into winter, along with lack of a national strategy. And once enough seeds of "spreaders" are sown it is too late to stop the wave from becoming overwhelming. What worked in the summer isn't working in a lot of countries despite all the precautions being taken by so many. There is an overwhelming force of the virus transmitting successfully under certain conditions (indoors, colder weather, close gatherings, etc). In the spring, the playbook was set by China by wide shutdowns, with Europe and some US states following. This time it may be Europe and some predominantly Democrat-run states scripting how we will respond. Time will tell. I think, like with any illness, it needs to be taken seriously, but the primary driver IMO is making sure the hospitals/health care universe is not overwhelmed and beyond not just its operating capacity, but its capacity with regard to functioning at a high level. Having extra beds but understaffed chaos does no good either. This was the primary point of lockdowns early on...although it is now perplexing, and indicative of a high level, coordinated lie, somewhere, that Cuomo is claiming hospitals where never near capacity. If true this is a major lie and further indicative of a hand waving power grab. The other point, is that part of not overwhelming hospitals, ERs, and urgent cares, is not scaring people into thinking they need to run there at the first sign of seasonal allergies...or, that if you test positive its a death sentence. The more that comes out, the more clear it becomes that the majority of people should just go on living their lives, with a mask. Thats it. And if you get it, not to panic. I said before, the majority of the people I know who have had it, 1) didnt even bother to get tested, 2) have had worse cases of the common cold, 3) got over it on their own. This seems to be whats playing out at many universities...which then begs the questions, if universities can open, why are schools an issue? If schools arent an issue, why cant people go to work? No one ever avoided a restaurant because of the flu. Michael Jordan had one of the most memorable games of his career, supposedly with the flu. Now we're outright cancelling games and banning fans...its insane.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/15/why-the-biggest-us-mall-owner-simon-could-be-a-buy-during-the-pandemic.html Nothing groundbreaking here, but sums up Simon's desperation.

Added a little bit to V.

Interesting. Lets go back and read Feb/March/April again...when people where trying to have investment related discussions and the covid experts drowned everything out crying about Trump....

The September asset sales closing is still under appreciated IMO. This is now a pureplay on OLED, should be generating reasonable FCF for a growth tech co, balance sheet now pristine, and a focused management. I like tech overall, but think the big boys will have headwinds because beating them up is a bipartisan issue, and some of the other stuff is insanely priced...MX has huge growth ahead of it and the valuation is reasonable.

Who cares? At this point the virus isn't at all what everyone made it out to be and that is clear. If I read another story about "event cancelled because of covid" or "2nd wave, lets shut down" I think Ill just go "all cash" like many of "the experts" here did in March. Its preposterous what MSM and hysterics can do. This entire thing is summed up nicely by the ESPN article on FL and AL situations. Florida game delayed because of covid! is the headline. Bottom of the paragraph...all 15 who tested positive are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Then "Nick Saban positive for COVID"...bottom of the article, Saban is asymptomatic and while quarantining, basically running practice from Zoom! Yea, another 68 year old who's gonna die. Everything about this, at this point, is "the flu". Perhaps MSM can start a "flu tracker" this year to give people something to do when they arent obsessing over covid. Everyone says" oh but 200k deaths!"...well, we shouldn't have been seeing 8% death rates, but you know.... Just the other day Cuomo was at his podium now claiming hospitals "were nowhere near capacity and had plenty of room back in April"...you cant make this stuff up.

There are two very distinct groups in the big urban based workforce. The younger folks, work to play. They want to be in the city. Not half an hour away. Then theres the older crowd. They work to support families and lifestyles. The latter is flexible. But the former? Dont think so. 25 year old tech/finance bros dont want to live anywhere but where the action is. There was a piece recently posted somewhere(might have been here, I forget) about how the current 30-40 age group, the one that largely drove rental rates across the country through the ceiling the past 10 years, are shifting significantly towards home ownership. The most preferred areas are about 15-25 miles from urban centers.

Little more GEOS edit: also added some MX

Theres not many truly good books on the mechanics of short selling, but there are some with decent case studies. The most effective process Ive found, is actually engaging in short selling, which is truly a difficult, time consuming, and energy intensive exercise. But it really gives you the ability to understand everything from managing entries/exits, tracking down shares, hedging, avoiding unnecessary costs, and other important aspects that when long, you are able to identify. Such as what anyone who is short a stock like DDS is thinking and feeling over the weekend after seeing that filing. Which would lead you to have been leaning towards a short squeeze occurring very early in the day Monday. Or what's the standard operating procedure when borrow costs seem to be climbing 20% a day. Or what the first instinct is when you get that dreaded email from the broker saying "BUY-IN"...

Yea I'd imagine that is collected data from a sweep of the GTB reports from major brokers. The relationship is not always that simple, but largely the rate is supply/demand driven. But a rate going up doesnt necessarily mean more people want to short. It could simply mean that x amount of shares already being borrowed have been sold. Thus forcing existing short sellers to either find new locates or cover. It could also be gamesmanship. Eddy Lampert was rumored to regularly switch his shares from marginable to nonmarginable to squeeze shorts. This is the exact tactic that Martin Skreli used with whatever that bankrupt penny stock he pumped was, to cause a whole lot of carnage, including the dude who ended up having to do a GoFundMe account after getting squeezed into a massive margin debt. Yesterday with DDS, I did notice the borrow rate dropped. That, and the follow through today, along with the benefit of hind site, may indicate that at least for the near term, the 52-61 early morning spike was your big short squeeze.

To my knowledge there is not anything that tracks real time(like to the minute) figures. The above is an art more than a science, but a bit of both at the same time. Some helpful things to observe that facilitate the ability to wager with confidence when the deck is stacked so to speak... 1. Borrow rates. There is a very high correlation with rising borrow rates and short squeezes. The reason is common sense. If your cost to carry rises from 1% a month to 5% a month...the trade becomes more expensive and less desirable and the experienced short seller also becomes aware of the risk others beat you to the punch in terms of deciding to cover. 2. Borrow availability. This is not as useful because many times shares are just tightly held or held in type 1 accounts. But HTB stocks are almost always the more likely to get squeezed compared to a GC stock. 3. Margin calls. Many times, a 10-20% move is really just the catalyst itself as it triggers losses and house rules that propel others to change their bets. 4. Forced buy ins. This is a big one and usually combines 1-2. When the rates rise and there's no more borrow, short sellers typically have 24 hours notice to either find a new locate or be bought in. This, from the firms I follow, typically occurs between 2-3 in the afternoon. Sometimes an hour earlier but always second half of the day and never after 3. Even just the notice of a potential buy-in creates panic and many times people will just immediately cover. 5. Option activity. As was touched on a while ago with the AAPL rally, options, specifically calls, force the market makers to going into the market and hedge. 6. Less frequent and harder to follow but some of the biggest short squeezes Ive followed have resulted from an out of the blue announcement that indicates even less stock is available than previously thought. Keeping tabs on tightly held companies with high short interest in the easiest way to track these developments. So you'll never "know" exactly when someone is covering, but if you follow the signs, you can get pretty damn close to predicting when something is brewing.

Ive found the best way to trade this over the years has been to watch volume surges and just roll up the option chain while taking dollars off the table. I exited the majority today on the rocket fueled surge to 61. Forced buying created quick spikes, such as what occurred between 9:52 and 10. First Half hour, last half hour, and 2-3 are also usually most active squeeze periods. Theres a lot of pattern recognition necessary when it comes to trading these things, but once you get it down its fairly easy.

Exited RBACU and most of DDS

Yea, whats nuts is there was plenty of stock to buy between 43-45 AH on Friday.