Gregmal

To the extent that the virus is not out of control where I live, I will likely not get the vaccine for a while. In total, my county has less than 2000 cases, with the bulk being in nursing homes. The places I regularly travel are not bad either. However, should there be a noted uptick, or should I need to travel somewhere with a different profile, I would likely consider getting the vaccine. I only started getting the flu shot after having kids, and never really had a problem with the flu either. Just use common sense precautions.

I posted this at the time in the AAPL thread, but talk about prescient! https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/6460311-unemon1/5255152-long-aapl-5-owner-warren-buffet-knows-apple-is-easy-5minus-10-bagger-145 This one I also thought was not just well done, but ballsy given how outrageous some of the stuff that was occurring around this company and some of the "participants" was. Definition of contrarian, definition of a pair of grapefruits. https://www.presciencepoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Prescience_Point-MiMedx_MDXG-Long.pdf EDIT: Add these two as well. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/STRAIGHT_PATH_COMMUNICATIONS/2721907799 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/STRAIGHT_PATH_COMMUNICATIONS/1546820512

You are perhaps mistaking my comments as a general disdain for Left/Citron. Quite the contrary. I follow him closely and admire some of his style. He is a unique investor.

The timing was fortunate and given how things have played out, I wouldn't be shocked to see things keep heading lower but with the very quick and outsized move I've always found it prudent to rebalance so that when things do settle you arent giving back your gains. For instance the QQQ puts went from 5 to about 12 in a couple days. VIX calls from $3.xx to 9. So take off excess, chuck it into "core" non speculative portion of portfolio, and work the rest to maximize leverage. VIX especially can cause profits to vaporize quickly. 35+ has historically not lasted long. The AAPL as well as most momo has shown a crack. So I think it makes sense that the sell off would play out sooner than later, if indeed its going to be one of those bottom falls out moments.

It was the only thing I had on my list of things to do today. Sadly a day late. Congrats on the timing. Thanks. Sold most of these today and rolled a portion down the chain, same November expiration. Also added to AAPL puts. Sold the AAPL puts and rolled a portion into closer dated Sept 25s, lightened up on the index puts as well. Bought some BIDU

Cant you buy it and then sell it to an LLC owned by your parents? A lot depends on how you are financing it.

Hmmm....maybe the COBF doctor psychiatrist can weigh in?

It is bizarre but I noticed this with some of the vintage I follow. As a lazy example, the Gretzky OPC/Topps RC, and its subsequent PSA grades saw price increases between 70-200% right around May/June. That Trout that made news was pure insanity IMO. The first real "modern" card to jump out like that...shortly after a Lebron RC sold for 1.8M or so. The POP reports PSA produces are certainly helpful in terms of gauging scarcity, but its odd seeing modern cards with 18 different version and 17 different parallels(such as the Trout) garner these prices. Give me a '52 Mantle any day...Like the stock market I guess, you can have bubbles and value at the same time, just hidden in different pockets.

+1 on this. This got me thinking a bit and I put on a similar but slightly different trade in AAPL and a few other names. Thanks for the unique idea.

Ha! No one is upset. Its quite hilariously amusing. The "oh so serious" extinction level virus that we MUST! take every precaution against until we have a vaccine, EXCEPT! unless we want to protest/destroy property/shoot people/assault cops, now potentially has a vaccine and the tune changes as it always does. It can not be trusted! But if Biden wins it will be "the right thing to do"! and Joe will have "solved" the crisis.....Nobody wonders why the usual suspects always have the same stances when it comes to certain topics. I mean, hey, if you now all of a sudden dont trust Fauci, "the expert" everyone loved and claimed in the preceding months was a godsend, because you believe its "advantageous" to Trump....well, ok, dont get the vaccine... Keep doing whatever you've been doing since you have all the answers anyway.....you just might get dizzy and pass out as you chase your tail in circles. And dont walk into any goal posts...they might not be where you remembered them. You seem to move them a lot without knowing it.

We MUST listen to Fauci! He's the only expert we have! If Fauci promotes getting the vaccine prior to November......Dont do it! Trump must be up to something.... Same "stuff" as always from the usual suspects.

It was the only thing I had on my list of things to do today. Sadly a day late. Congrats on the timing. Thanks. Sold most of these today and rolled a portion down the chain, same November expiration. Also added to AAPL puts.

Urgency is always integral to a great sales pitch. If you are trading your own commotion, it is important to be as sensational as possible.

First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps.

Something like this, loose and lazily thinking, such as higher tax rates for larger $ volumes of capital gains, would make sense to me. First $25k 0%, next $75k 10%, $100k-500k at 20%, etc.

To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100% Looks like the market starts to crack today. Is this the top? Is it going to resume higher? ::) I've been full cash since earlier this week. I haven't figured out if the market is going to puke-it-all-out or do a sector rotation at this moment. But I do think the COVID situation is improving too fast and the market is too optimistic that we'll at least get a severe pull back if not a bigger correction. I dont place too much weigh on the technical stuff, but also try to not completely ignore it. The opening reversal in momo names yesterday morning was as textbook an exhaustion puke as Ive ever seen. (example CRWD, although there were many, many others)

Yea come on. Bill Ackman doesnt make mistakes. Just ask him!

Left(I know for a fact) trades his own noise. Many of those guys do. He targets weakly held Robinhood type stocks for a reason and is usually transacting around releases. He put a short call on one of the COVID vaccine hype stocks at 20 and it's at 150 now, but likely covered when his release knocked it to 15. Theres lot of folks like this out there. EDIT: to clarify NVAX was the stock and its at $100 now, and traded as high as $190. https://citronresearch.com/citron-updates-peloton/

I suppose everything just goes over your head. You personally having been in an auto/aviation related accident has zero bearing on whether your thoughts prior where that it was dangerous or not dangerous. The numbers are the numbers. 200k deaths and 94% have underlying issues. For most people, it isn't a big deal. For certain groups it is. If you are 25 and get it, there isn't much to worry about. If you are 25 and happen to be one of the rare ones to die, that still doesnt change the fact that for that age group, most people will be fine. Older folks are super high risk, and Cain was in his mind 70's. But because he had downplayed it, the left "got him"....Nice! Maybe my perception of risk is skewed, or maybe I'm just not chicken little. Remember, there's many here still claiming the sky is falling. Its been falling since February and frankly, I'm shocked it hasn't hit the ground yet. Whatever are we going to do? Will it ever stop falling?

November IWM and QQQ puts

I am scared of flying. I go on an airplane and it does not have an incident. Whew, I got lucky! I am not scared of flying, I go on an airplane and it has an incident. Damn it, I should have listened to the people who were afraid of flying!

Posted in another thread but relevant here, Ackman supposedly was going after AirBNB with the SPAC. Again, if nothing else, what a wily and opportunistic fellow.

Speaking of AirBNB, word is that this was Ackman's SPAC target. Take it for what you will.

You have inadvertently clarified the major fault lines in this thread. If you downplay the risks of driving, it absolutely changes the risk level of driving. You drive a little faster, run yellow lights, text, drive after a beer. And risk doesn't rise linearly, so small behaviour changes dramatically increase your risk. And it doesn't just change your risk, you increase the risk for everyone else on the road. the estimated risk of a pedestrian being killed is approximately 9% if they are hit at a speed of 30 mph. The risk at an impact speed of 40 mph is much higher, at approximately 50%. The same thing happens when you downplay the risk of a pandemic. These are just faulty assumptions. I dont think driving is risky at all, and I dont do any of those things. I also dont think the pandemic is an extinction level event, but I wear a mask and keep my distance... What basis do you have to form the conclusion that someone who doesnt think driving is super dangerous has to be someone who is reckless/careless?

Ah yes, the "he downplayed the virus and died from it" subject. If I downplay the risks of driving my car, and then die in an auto accident, it doesnt change the reality of how safe/unsafe driving is. But it may be a "gotcha" point for people who dont like me or something. Anyway, Cain was what? 75?