Gregmal

More AAPL puts/short positions. If one gives any credibility to charts representing a psychological leaning of market participants, this is going down...short term at least. Every rally has gotten faded and the event was just a dud.

Go big or go home, I guess. Not promotional or nuffin. Just 50% of an optimistic TAM...

Personally I think its crazy the amount of focus being given to this when you look at the size of the investment vs Berkshire's total capital... Additionally, whats wrong with doing this? I do similar things with the capital I have at my disposal...granted, not a few hundred million but still, speculating on small amounts is perfectly fine. Heres a newsflash for folks...over the past decade, investments like SNOW have worked wonderfully, whereas a good many of the ones put on by Berkshire under the "old formula" and many value investors, have not. Are people averse to making money? I would wager a good amount that this trade makes BRK some money.

The outlook may be bad, but on any reasonable basis, these companies are priced for that, and much worse. Yet, at pretty much any valuation, there will always be the "state the obvious" folks. Cuz you know, "NYC is looking pretty bad". VNO could trade to a 15 cap and there'd still be folks talking about "I wouldn't want to be in NYC" and "brick and mortar retail is dying, and office aint far behind!". I guess thats what makes a market. Embrace the hate.

GM spokesman Jim Cain declined to elaborate on the type of diligence the automaker conducted other than to say it was a “thorough review of business, legal and technical matters.”

The lowly Mets go to Cohen for $2.4ish. New record for a sports franchise.

I guess it just depends what you consider a "tech" company. EDIT: breaking news, Camping World just announced plans for a peer to peer RV rental platform! Techify it baby. Up more than 10x from the March lows, this baby now should have another 3-5x upside given the new RVAAS angle to it!

Few can find them quite like Connor Haley.

Yea I was pondering this over the weekend. I bought a few around $6.4 on Friday, but from a $23 strike, yea thats definitely on the expensive side. Granted, you have 5 years here.

Sold some more SPAQ and put proceeds into WFC and JBGS

Yea the profile is entirely different. Pershing Square the fund is going to behave like a stock/index. You have no way to attain NAV. The SPAC is anchored to NAV on the downside, and, if you observe the behavior of SPACs both leading up to a deal, and on announcement, the odds seem in your favor. Now add in a guy with a nose for this stuff and I think the deck becomes ever further stacked in your direction. If I was looking for a longer term home for my money, it would be with the fund. If you fancy a shorter term, cash alternative, with some giddy up potential, then it's PSTH. Warrants would be distributed after merger is consummated, typically not long after shareholder vote.

I would just add that from my reading of value investing literature, there is an emphasis on limiting the downside. growth investing looks with more emphasis on exposure to upside. now, how does a value investor limit the downside? you can look to all of the metrics discussed, such as low P/E, low P/B etc, look for a moat to limit competition, etc...all of these metrics can be debated as to how effective they are, but they simply are filters that value investors use to try to achieve some modicum of safety. probably the best filter is to invest in a great business, but this is in the eye of the beholder. Buffett once said that he thought Sees Candies was a great business since whenever some guy bought the product, he got a kiss from his wife/GF etc. so I suppose there are many paths.... Personally, I've noticed that it seems the way in which most people apply "value investing" philosophies, encourages continuing to stick with things that dont work. If you've held something for 3+ years and haven't made money, in a crazy blow out bull market like we've seen where almost everything under the sun is making money, you are just flat out wrong and should move on. Sure, it may "eventually" come around, but why wait for a perpetual disappointment to change its behavior, when pretty much everything else is going to reward you today? Blackberry is one that comes to mind in this category. You could have literally held anything else in that space and done well instead of sitting around, hoping and waiting for the tide to turn on a reclamation project..... Don’t all your REIT holdings fit this bill perfectly? Comparing this after a major reset is silly. SPG and ESRT I just started buying this year; ESRT I am still buying. If in 3 years or so I haven't made money, then yea, I'd probably consider my investments a failure and a waste of time. I have a hard time doing so after a quarter or two. A better example, although not purely RE/REIT would be MSG(as in the CVC spinoff). Even with the COVID decline, thats printed money for shareholders over the past 3-5-10 yr or whatever timeframe. Same with ARE. Blackberry stuck out to me because it's a cultish value stock, in a sector where everything is going bonkers. Different than someone investing in real estate or energy right now...in those respects, you know what you're getting into as it's sector wide headwinds in classically cyclical business/asset classes. The post above probably came off as supportive of a "buy whats popular" strategy, which is not what I was trying to convey. Better said, dont go buying into problems you dont need to because you are a cheapskate. It would be like going after PEI or CBL instead of SPG. There is a quality component to things and often people look past quality in search of value. If something is working, the top notch companies will do well. When you get into reclamation projects, many of the ingredients for underperformance are glaring yet overlooked frequently. EDIT: I'd add that a better example in terms of what I own would probably be MSG Networks.

I would just add that from my reading of value investing literature, there is an emphasis on limiting the downside. growth investing looks with more emphasis on exposure to upside. now, how does a value investor limit the downside? you can look to all of the metrics discussed, such as low P/E, low P/B etc, look for a moat to limit competition, etc...all of these metrics can be debated as to how effective they are, but they simply are filters that value investors use to try to achieve some modicum of safety. probably the best filter is to invest in a great business, but this is in the eye of the beholder. Buffett once said that he thought Sees Candies was a great business since whenever some guy bought the product, he got a kiss from his wife/GF etc. so I suppose there are many paths.... Personally, I've noticed that it seems the way in which most people apply "value investing" philosophies, encourages continuing to stick with things that dont work. If you've held something for 3+ years and haven't made money, in a crazy blow out bull market like we've seen where almost everything under the sun is making money, you are just flat out wrong and should move on. Sure, it may "eventually" come around, but why wait for a perpetual disappointment to change its behavior, when pretty much everything else is going to reward you today? Blackberry is one that comes to mind in this category. You could have literally held anything else in that space and done well instead of sitting around, hoping and waiting for the tide to turn on a reclamation project.....

There was some talk of this in the other Pershing Square thread, but I think it deserves its own thread. The pitch here is fairly simple. For those who dont know what a SPAC is, first look it up. You are buying cash, and investing in Bill Ackman's ability to identify a target company. Currently trades 21.60, so 8% above the offering price. For the value investor out there, your IV is static and you can ascribe the 8% premium to whatever you'd like. I would point out that most SPACs tend to trade at a low single digit premium to NAV, so I essentially view this as a situation where you're paying an extra 5% for Bill Ackman...which I do in a situation like this, all day long. Why does this make sense? Bill Ackman is controversial to some, and has brought on a lot of hate himself...but he is also an excellent investor and has an eye for special situations. He also has connections and access to bankers that most of us will never have. What shareholders also have going for them, is that this vehicle is very much going to be a piece of Bill Ackman's legacy, and if anyone knows how much Bill loves Bill, you have think of this as a positive influence on what ultimately ends up getting done here. I think there is an extremely high likelihood that Ackman ends up merging with a very well know, established, and profitable private company in a moderately distressed, or COVID impacted position. AirBNB has been rumored recently, so I think this gives one a good idea of where Bill's head is at. If you want to put a bow around the investment thesis, you are basically paying 5% to be a pre-IPO investor, with no lockup, in a private market darling. I am not anticipating a 50% bump on a deal announcement, nor would I expect to see him buying a hype train story stock like an electric car maker. Regardless of what it is, your downside is negligible here. The bonus kicker is that if you participate in the deal, you are also going to be the recipient of 2/9 of a warrant as well...further reducing your present day cost of acquiring a PSTH share. Disclosure...I own PSTH and PSTH/ws

Best deal I had with a gym was a membership with 24h fitness, that was prepaid for 3 years and cost $800 (this deal was available in the slow time of the year in June/July typically) about 15 years ago. That was cheap, but the great thing about this was an extension option where after 3 years you could extend the deal for another year for $60. I extended mine for about 10 years Until I sadly moved in an area without 24h fitness. 24h fitness is not a high end gym, but the instructors were actually really good and classes were included in above. Even towel service was free. After that, paying $30/ month for NY Sports club (a much worse fitness studio) felt like a big ripoff. Now, I have a small home fitness studio, but I miss the motivational aspect of instructors. Perhaps there is a Peloton bike In my future... Eh, you only have your 20's once. No responsibilities and too much money is a fun problem to have. For $170, it was certainly overpriced, but not as much as it seems. Had an olympic sized swimming pool, basketball court, two floors of exercise machinery, spa, and a good bit more. Atmosphere was incredible. I grew out of it and now have a personal trainer which runs $225 a month but is definitely worth it. I cant get the same work out on my own so the cost is what it is. As for PTON, my wife is due in about 6 weeks, so she's already asked and will receive one for Xmas...I will try to keep updated on the anecdotal bs, but I just dont see $30B here, unless $30B is the new $1B. My local athletic club runs $50 a month and of course there are the 24 Hour types doing $25 a month deals. For the workout nuts, sure, any price works. But for average folks, this stuff comes and goes like New Years resolutions. $30 a month or whatever aint $10 like Netflix. People will grow out of it and cancel. Although it took me 3 months of not attending once before I got off my ass at Lifetime and their $170 hitting my card, so maybe there will be a 6-12 month lag.

Lazily right now, without checking, IIRC they bought back maybe $50M in Q2 and $120M YTD as of July are the buybacks. Of most curiosity to me is whether they continue. They cut the payment of dividends til year end, but made no mention of the buyback which I believe has a $500M authorization. Given the outlook most folks have for NYC, IE, the worst is yet to come...I am of the opinion the safest bet here is just to buyback your own shares. Will certainly be interesting to see what they do. Re: compensation. I was not a holder pre COVID and have a loosely estimated 3 year -ish expectation for investment here. Either way, if I am right, what they are getting paid, over the period of time I intend to be a shareholder....should not matter. If I am wrong, well I get what I deserve anyway. Oh the markets are beautiful in that sense.

Anyone know how Kraven is doing? I was just thinking about him earlier today. I was re-reading some quant stuff which led me to some antitrust legal canon concerning how Porter's Five Forces is basically bunk. I had a similar personal realization with M. Gladwell's stuff. I think my journey toward quant-esque investing has been probably kind of similar to his. I dont think I was here while he was an active poster, but we exchanged messages a little bit ago. He can chime in if he's still following but the gist was similar to what a lot of us have acknowledged the past few years. There is not a ton of unique investment related discussion here, and the investment related discussion that does take place, is often in the same trite names and largely an echo chamber...BRK, FFH, etc.

Your imaginations suck big time This is a Fitness As a Service or FaaS company. It deserves to trade at 30x NTM Price to Sub Rev multiple. Fight me. You can get stretching, bodyweight, yoga, meditation, biking, treads, etc. I'll bet a 24 pack of Budlight that they will add kettlebell workouts in the next 12 months. For the price of $40 for the subscription and you get a suite of workouts and a random shoutout from Robin the instructor, this is a bargain. Health is wealth, sex appeals get free dinners, and you can post your before and after photos on social media for a ton of likes. What don't you guys get? This is true, and certainly a bargain compared to my $170 a month Lifetime Fitness membership I used to have. I am sure the tipping point for me would be when PTON rolls out the "work out with MILFs" version everyday from 10am-11:30am. I would also like to see the virtual swimming pool option added on.

These results were Q2 though, which ended in June. And even in places that were open, capacity was reduced, and as you alluded to, there was apprehension to go out, period. Even if it was "allowed". So it's definitely something that helped. Does it have traction? I am sure it does. I'm sure there are dedicated users. But its the same type of effect we saw on grocery store numbers and boat sales. Things things got juiced by the ultimate catalyst, but simply pulled sales from the future. Of course this is a net positive, but if you are projecting high growth rates, for extended periods of time, off the back of these numbers, I think you will be disappointed. I am fine being wrong on this, but what growth do you expect for this Q, next year? What about the year after? At the current multiple, you need pretty robust growth, which I would probably wager, wanes as things return to normal over the next 12-18 months.

I recall when Tepper bought the SNAP IPO. He was asked why, and he said "because I thought it would go up"...these guys arent stupid and are aware of the boost their influence can give an investment...so there is always that. Or maybe now Berkshire just became overnight savvy with tech stuff. I dont know.

Everything always seems the most legitimate/obvious during the peak of the craze.....It is sometimes important not to let price action(often determined by patsies) allow one to convince oneself that the fundamentals and thesis is confirmed. As mentioned prior, ZM....The headlines around Zoom's earnings were outrageous. What exactly did folks expect given what occurred in Q2? Bad numbers? Same sort of thing applies here. Shut gyms. Lock people in their homes. Start imposing regional bans. Shut everything else there is to do as well. And we are shocked sales went gangbusters? This Q, as well as the next one or two Qs will IMO be hard to ever replicate and the window to really capture and monetize a user base will be now. If you triple the active users, and assume at maturity they can improve margins significantly, whats that number and the multiple for that? GoPro not too long at, again at the height of the insanity, was a "lifestyle", "status", "media/interactive" company too....

OK, at least one bull responded with actual "I'm long". /respect The community aspect is a two edged sword. It's great and positively reinforcing if/when it is growing. But community can collapse too if people move on to something different. With that being said, I'm not expecting PTON sales/subs to collapse for ~2 years at least. There is still lockdown and scarcity factor. So we have until ~2021 end for increasing sales/participation. If it goes down (in sales/subs), it will go down in 2022-2023 timeframe. JMO. (Note that I don't predict how/where stock price will go) Fair enough. I do believe this is a big platform in making that will have some stickiness with the existing consumer base. The management team here is solid too. I also think if Tim Cook had to do a marquee acquisition, this would be it but that guy has been sitting on his ass for a long time. I dont know about you, but I think many shareholders, would be quite happy if the majority of CEOs just boringly sat on their ass and returned capital to shareholders the way Cook has, rather than go on acquisition driven, kingdom building sprees. Based on the results, its hard to say Cook's approach hasn't worked either.

Bought some PSTH warrants

Eh, my tax dollars I am told go to supporting failures, and so to do my investment dollars!

In my humble opinion you don't fail if you stick to your personal investment approach. Why would you enter into a Keynesian beauty contest where you buy a stock because you think other people will like it more once they "understand the investment thesis"? I saw a Twitter post by a "value investor" stating "the day SpaceX IPO's I will definitely buy the stock because there will be a ton of fans that is also eagerly waiting to buy the stock". Buying in a stock because you like the underlying business without looking at the valuation is just speculation based on (1) the greater fool theory or (2) hope that the investment thesis will work out eventually and the company will grow into its current valuation. imo you can throw > 90% of the SAAS space in the second bucket. To be fair, playing "pass the hot potato" has now worked wonders for nearly a decade, and fully gone into overdrive TTM. If all the RobinHoods can do it, surely a reasonably well versed financial professional/sophisticated investor can find a way to make a few beans off the same strategy... End of the day, everyones just trying to make money. The question of strategy really just comes down to sustainability. Its been kind of easy to see certain things have long runways for the "story". You've got an awesome story, reasonably large TAM, and no real chicken come home to roost/show me the profits expectation for the time being...the animal spirits will run wild=bad short. NVTA is another one that fits this bill.