Gregmal

They probably got their employees all excited by calling them back in...creating this big production, only to tell them to go home since it was only a one off gig for a "do as I say not as I do" politician and that normal people arent allowed to get haircuts yet....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-footage-shows-pelosi-san-201038226.html Nancy following the science! I'm sure they all still dine eloquently, while everyday citizens are told this type of stuff is "too dangerous"...

I'm not really buying as much as shifting or repositioning/recycling capital. Ive probably been a net seller/cash builder the past month.

Ackman is one to cautiously admire, but also respect for what he is.

Also swapped some RBACU into CFIIU. Big moves!

I dont have much experience with cosginers but from doing a few JVs(if you will call them that) they typically either look at everyone equally, or focus on the primary borrower. Not sure that changes with a cosigner. Everyone on the total with have equal responsibility to make sure the mortgage is paid. If anything, just put your dad as an applicant as well, so everything is equally weighted. Working freelance or 1099 is shitty. You can have a w2 job for a week and they take your income figure at face value for the debt to income ratio, but you can be self employed for 10 years and they still want 2-3 years of returns and average them out. Its gotten better, but putting your own food on the table still sucks when you apply for a mortgage. It was a nightmare when I applied. My numbers were like 15k, 60k, and 160k and I bitched the the lender "I managed a liquor store part time my last year of college, took a year off, and then started working 18 months ago...how the F is this reflective of future earnings?" but to no avail. They dont care. If you know any family or friends who own businesses, taking a w2 "job" as a "favor" for a couple months may be worth exploring.

The global warming rabbit hole I think is much simpler. There is sufficient evidence that it is occurring. But there is zero credibility amongst the "experts"(again, primarily pure academics with zero real world or business experience) in terms of implementing an effective and efficient solution. Nor have they demonstrated the ability to ever determine accurate figures that correlate well to reducing the issue. Every "global warming" initiative to date, has more or less been a financial black hole and a get rich quick scheme for many friends and associates of the policy makers. So, at some point, its fair to ask them to put up or shut up, because nothing they've proposed to date has really been worth listening to. With COVID, its basically just scream loud from the mountain tops, cite scary charts and scream "200,000 DEATHS!"(I am guessing that milestone will be a major celebration point for some), but as was consistent with a lot of the financial work done as far back as March(IIRC Brooklyn Investor did a nice piece on this) it just doesnt translate to economic disaster or long term stock market disarray. So being bearish since March, and then wailing at people who didnt buy into the "extinction level event" narrative because of "bbbbut covid cases went up" and then saying things like "stonks" with sarcasm, may make one feel better about reading it totally wrong, but it totally misses the bigger financial picture; the financial picture is ultimately what I'd imagine most on these type of forums are interested in.

Small adds to TWTR and ARE

Depends a bit on what you are trying to accomplish...for instance; Do you want to buy as much house as possible, or are you looking for a starter home? Why is this relevant? Because having credit card debt scattered(ie 10 different accounts) vs consolidating it can effect your buying power. Also the type of debt. A car payment is cancer if you want to max out the amount of house you can buy. If you have a $600 car payment with $15k remaining, you are better off temporarily paying it off with a balance transfer where your minimum monthly payment will only be $200 or so. Stuff like that. Basically you want the monthly figure to be as low as possible, even if it means having to move things around. I was two years out of college and self employed, so for a number of reasons(add in trying to do this in 2012) my $900 a month car payment basically wiped out $150k of home. I had to buyout the lease, then buy a $5k clunker(they will still use your old car lease number unless you can show you own another vehicle) only to then go buy another Lexus two days after closing. Pain in the rear. Generally though, credit card debt doesnt mean much, only the monthly minimum payment, but fixed installment payments, cars, student loans, etc. are toxic. I am unsure if they still have first time homebuyer programs, but if you are looking at a starter home, keep in mind that eventually you'll want to buy a bigger home and it may not be a bad idea to find something with a vibrant future as a rental. If you can get in using a 3% down type of thing(with rates this low, ignore the PMI as its not really a big deal) you have your name on the title of an awesome asset several years down the line and some optionality. Otherwise, an investment property will cost you 20% down. Maaaaybe, someone will underwrite one for 15%, but to get in to one young, and at 3%...a huge opportunity if you can pull it off. Also challenge the fees. Application fee, origination fee, etc...all total bullshit. My guy told me that they have them on there because people pay them without asking. If you ask they almost always remove them. The application fee especially is really just collateral in the event you dont close. Anything above a 740 FICO doesnt really matter. DO NOT pile a bunch of money into an account as they'll want a paper trail of any large deposits for the prior 6 months. If you are buying the home you hope to live in and raise a family in for 20+ years...spare nothing, be sensible, but dont be a cheap wad or cut corners. Its going to be your home, not a primary investment. Buy what will fit you and the vision of what you want for your future life and family. Assuming its not going to be a rental, transaction fees for real estate suck and its a time consuming process, so make it a one and done.

Hows this looking? Maybe a week's notice for everyone to get their last crack in at the politics section?

As I said, it doesnt matter what you have to say, as you have demonstrated over and over that you are a habitual liar. The strategy of never committing but always insinuating gives the worm wiggle room to say "see I was right" when it goes his way, but also, favorably to say "dont put words in my mouth, I never said that"...when it doesnt. Keep your head up Doc. Hopefully the skools reopen soon and you can get back to your pulpit with that PHD!

You can and you do! The last sentence says it all—easy to disprove just like everything else you post. Apparently in Feb I was “rooting for things to go lower” (which they kinda did in March) but then I also “don’t commit to anything”! Lol! Which is it? Having two contradictory beliefs in one’s head! My trades have ripped my face off apparently ! Apparently you can indeed make stuff up!! Often wrong, never in doubt! So it is not possible to "root for things to go lower", insinuate doom, and still avoid publicly committing to pretty much anything? Even such basic questions as "do you own this?"...well, Dr. Dalal, you are living proof that doing the above is certainly possible. What a poor attempt to wiggle and weasel your way out of that! Its all back in the posts, assuming they didnt magically get edited or deleted.

LOL it wasn't even my trade. The world doesnt revolve around me doctor. I'm happy to debate and bear the proxy positions for everyone in the world whom you disagree with or hold a grudge against, but most of these big issues for you just arent really that big of a deal to me. I just got a kick out of people who took the other side of muscleman's trade, or gave him a hard time, or did a little bit of both but in all likelihood didnt actually have the fortitude to put skin in the game despite such surefire conviction in him being wrong....still running their mouths and claiming they were right and he was wrong even after he's wrapped up a profitable trade...but go ahead, rewrite his investment thesis..."if USA doesnt have below 20,000 covid cases a day and there isn't indisputable, countrywide herd immunity, I will lose my money!".....or something like that right? Its funny, again being the total hypocrite you are...In February-March you were the cheerleader for "we're going lower because the numbers are going to be a lot worse in 30 days!"(unfortunately you got too emotionally attached and seemed to get caught up basking in the attention and now that same trade has ripped your face off)...now? HA! Oh yea, you "dont engage in short term speculating" and are condescending and petty when someone else basically puts on the same type of trade you felt special foreseeing in March! As I said earlier, you cant make this shit up.

Ahh, it's raining personal attacks! Nooooooo! Skool was good. Spent most of my time lying about being a doctor.

LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, Personal attacks like this must be defended on this forum or he’ll get upset that you are infringing on his conservatism! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend my time bragging about how cool i was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you! It wasn't a personal attack, I was trying to comfort you! Whats your address? I'll Fedex you some tissues and a care package, Dr. Dalal. MODS!!! HALP!

poster (jokingly): Tsla is back to $400, is it a buying opportunity? Mr. I always have to be right: actually, its at $500 LOL, yea. Thats who we're dealing with. Although "happy to have them as follow investors" implies he/she/they are investing again! What changed? Actually, who cares. You'll never get an honest or a straight answer from he/she/they anyway. Its a shame bud, but you really do have quite the chip on your shoulder. I know it was devastating not being named captain of the debate team back in high school. And not losing one's virginity until your mid 20s definitely must have been tough. The lack of Esports right now must also be a tough pill to swallow... but it's ok. Let go of the animosity. Breathe a little bit. Stop being so bitter. Keep your head up! I promise it will get better....well, maybe not anytime soon in NY(....actually! I mean NYC, so as not to be "corrected" later)

There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. If you are investing with a thesis that we will reach herd immunity(which is what the guy laid out as his thesis), then you are free to wait til that date to start investing. I'd prefer to front run the trend. Which is what muscleman did. He was ambitious in predicting an exact date, so if one wants to nitpick, there is that. Same as if you are anticipating blowout earnings....invest ahead of it, or after? I mean get real dude. But otherwise, its just bizarre seeing him criticized by those who took the other side of the trade, or in most likely a case, didnt have the conviction to do anything.

Yes its common sense but for a long time, and still continuing, there seems to be this belief by some, that cases popping up signal the end of humanity. University of Alabama just saw 1200 cases from young college kids partying. Life will go on I am sure. All of this hinges upon a great deal of Trump hatred acting as fuel and a love of "look at me, im sooo smart!", but the truth is that things are gradually getting back to normal and should continue to do so, despite outbreaks popping up here and there. Well, back to normal except for NY...even NJ today just set in motion indoor dining. But its important not to associate "MOAR CASES" with the end of civilization or economic ruin in perpetuity. Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. You can make the same applications to other areas. And also really shouldn't be shocked about universities opening and having outbreaks, given the variety of factors converging, with people from all over the country settling into one location and likely doing a bit of socializing....the kids will be fine.

Sold half of FIZZ position.

Ive been looking a little bit into this, and the general bull case as well. Not much to add other than maybe to add lumber to the list. Agree on copper. There's probably a few scenarios where you can do well even without major inflation...homebuilding will likely continue to see major tailwinds.

It's OK Dalal. You're a habitual liar so nothing you say matters...except, on an investment forum...."I hope you are invested in the market!"

LOL. Muscleman was "directionally" right! We have "herd immunity" by the end of August in the USA just like he said...wait not the USA but only in select states NY, GA, FL, ...wait, cases are up in Buffalo? I mean herd immunity in NYC, not NY state! Dur how did Dalal screw that up! And not GA of course, I was kidding about that one! And the positivity was > 10% in FL in the past week? Oh, ignore that claim about herd immunity in FL too--see, Dalal was wrong! Dur I just change the original arguments to make sure it looks like Dalal was wrong! And of course I predicted all of this bc I am Nostradamus! LOL muscleman made money on his trade...good for him. He acknowledged market momentum and cases trending down and thought there was evidence of herd immunity. He actually committed to some sort of thesis! Imagine that? Then this guy, on the internet who habitually lies about everything, from being a doctor to predicting things, to actually not predicting things, to seeing great downside risk(as the market continues to rip his face off), comes in and goes "oh he was wrong about herd immunity bc of BUFFALO! I knew it"... strange behavior. I hope you made money on whatever trade you put on expressing "the other side" of what muscleman was betting on....but as usual I assume you didnt, and even if you claim you did, your dishonestly and lack of transparency would likely make it meaningless anyway. Thats your MO. Commit to nothing yourself but run around babbling and nitpicking anything and everything regarding people you disagree with. Then claim everyone else is wrong and you are right... Dalal Trump! indeed. A sorry narcissist with little hands!

And you keep doing your thing. Making things up. Crying wolf. Misrepresenting things. I mean we've seen plenty of people present herd immunity data for NYC, and here you come with Buffalo! LOL.... "For analytical eyes only!" All 33 of them! The stakes are high! And FYI. MGM MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates integrated casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts in the United States and Macau. The company operates through three segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its casino resorts offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. The company's casino operations include slots, table games, and race and sports book wagering. As of March 22, 2020, its portfolio consisted of 29 hotel and destination gaming offerings. The company also owns and operates Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Primm Valley Golf Club, and Fallen Oak golf course. Its customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts in Asia and the United States. It owns and operates The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, the Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao in Macao, the People's Republic of China; and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. The company also owns and operates The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino on the Las Vegas Strip; and the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Its integrated resorts feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants, and other amenities. Las Vegas Sands Corp. was founded in 1988 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited designs, develops, and operates integrated resorts. The company's Wynn Palace segment operates 424,000 square feet of casino space with 323 table games, 1,011 slot machines, private gaming salons, and sky casinos; a luxury hotel towers with 1,706 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including a health club, spa, salon, and pool; 14 food and beverage outlets; 106,000 square feet of retail space; 37,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and performance lake and floral art displays. Its Wynn Macau segment operates 252,000 square feet of casino space with 322 table games, 838 slot machines, private gaming salons, sky casinos, and a poker room; two luxury hotel with 1,010 guest rooms and suites that include two health clubs, two spas, a salon, and a pool; 12 food and beverage outlets; 59,000 square feet of retail space; 31,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling attractions. The company's Las Vegas Operations segment operates 192,000 square feet of casino space with 232 table games, 1,756 slot machines, private gaming salons, a sky casino, a poker room, and a race and sports book; two luxury hotel towers with a total of 4,748 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including swimming pools, private cabanas, two full service spas and salons, and a wedding chapel; 33 food and beverage outlets; 507,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; 160,000 square feet of retail space; and two theaters, three nightclubs and a beach club. Its Encore Boston Harbor segment operates 210,000 square feet of casino space with 161 table games, 2,833 slot machines, gaming areas, and a poker room; a hotel tower, including 671 guest rooms and suites; 16 food and beverage outlets and a nightclub; 8,000 square feet of retail space; 71,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and a waterfront park, floral displays, and water shuttle service. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. But Im sure you have some arcane, Taleb inspired, attention seeking answer as to what "gambling" really is.....a profession?

Shit, and here I thought, by NY, they meant Roscoe, NY....what a tool. Couple hundred college students get COVID, markets downs 8,000 points. Go to cash. Short everything. This is what happens with wide uncertainty! Large downside! Did I mention, we're going to get more covid cases! Cuomo, what do we do with the nursing home folks this time? Ahhhh!

Doubling down on broken analyses and mischaracterizing the opposing people's positions to make yourself feel better about repeatedly being wrong. A surefire recipe for a lifetime of investment success! Nothing in this forum surprises me anymore! "Often wrong, never in doubt!" I hope you and your kind are invested in the markets! -Dalal, April 2020 LOL Endless wisdom from the "analytical" one. Make a claim: If right...well, sound the alarm If wrong...delete/modify/edit posts, twist narrative, claim you said something else that can still tangentially be argued as having merit. Go get em champ. Oh yea, another one! Dalal in March: mock the politics section Dalal now: living there "rent free" After all, "the stakes are high!" ROFLMAO