Gregmal

rebought some PIC. EDIT: also snagged more PCYO under $9.

LG is a boss. I admire what he is trying to do. Its no minor feat taking on this industry and all that comes with it. His debt trading in March/April was epic.

Theres a couple things that I believe are important. 1) If saying "valuations dont matter" to a random investor, yea, thats dangerous and irresponsible. When saying it to a network of sophisticated(assumed, at least) investors, it should be understood that there are caveats, and ****'s, and that its largely case specific. Anyone who has focused on valuation, as their primary determinant of investing in Costco has missed out. Same for Amazon. Same for a number of companies. Everyone always says "I doubt they can keep growing at this rate", or "I doubt they'll get multiple expansion from here"...and yet, here we are. So its important to learn from past mistakes at some point. 2) Investing requires a flexible mindset. Sure, valuation always matter, except when they dont. Short term fluctuations dont matter, except when they do. Short term voting machine, long term weighing machine, except when for a 5, 10, 15 year stretch the assumed voting machine turns out to be the weighing machine. I recall maybe a year or two ago on this forum, there was spirited debate and unanimous conclusion that it is always wise to avoid spacs, except as we've been seeing the past 12 months or so, sometimes there are worthwhile opportunities. Staying flexible and resisting the urge to adhere to dogma and fixed principles is necessary. 3) If I had to wager, I'd imagine the aggregate total, assuming one invested equal amounts, of a presumed investment into every company an investor has passed on because of "valuation", would yield a positive return. Your perception doesnt not equal the outcome. History has shown us that simply being in the market, even without a brain, pays off. 4) Not all things are valued the same way. I do think it's fair to look at cash flow from a retailer. But while Costco's business is largely the same as 15 years ago....it is far more established and dominant and that deserves a better multiple and more weight. Why would any company be valued in the same basis it was as a much less mature and dominant market player? 5) Cash flow does not always matter. Its the same reason some people arent capable of understanding investments in things like sports teams/assets. The Mets are a habitual money loser, and NTM should lose $150M. $2.4B it is! I won't even get into stuff like Bitcoin, although its the same story there. Interesting enough often from people who invest in gold, which doesnt have a cash flow either. There are different and varying aspects of an investment that determine it's collective valuation. Its short sighted to just look at one. 6) You dont need to be married to an investment. Sure, I prefer and think buying and putting it away is the best approach for most companies and core investments. But if one needs a short, to mid duration alternative to cash, again, these type of companies fit the bill. Sitting on cash waiting for a 10% rate of return or whatever is greatly diminished with any inflation. But even more so when you incorporate what? You wait 5 years to get "your perceived" target valuation? Well once you factor into the 5 years of -2% you are already pretty significantly diluted. 7) Waiting for your perceived rate hurdle is fine, but also often unintentionally arrogant and setting one self up to be behind the ball. If Costco even gets to a valuation that is inconsistent with where it has historically been, what causes it? A short term trading glitch? Most people are too scared to pull the trigger when that happens. And if its not a short term technical glitch, do people really think you get to those targets without materially negative fundamental developments? I had an employee once make a remark about how "wouldn't it be great if (insert company name, I forget exactly who it was) traded down to $25 per share?(from like $100). I would load the boat"...and my response was basically...you probably wouldn't want to touch it because for that to happen you'd need substantial materially adverse developments which no longer make it attractive like it is today. You arent getting todays Costco at a substantial discount unless it isn't todays Costco. Which then, leads to... 8 ) When people get the discounts, they still always find excuses and reasons to scare themselves out of investing. I had a number of investors in March or April who couldn't be helped because of infatuations with "what if this" or "what if that"...and at some point if you wait around forever for a pullback, but the pullback level is still higher than when you first started "waiting" you've wasted your time. Or if the pullback does come, but you convince yourself not to act, well same thing. I couldn't help but respond to a small couple investors doing this, that "I'm sorry but I dont really have the time to address every one of your hypothetical concerns. If you dont want to invest, there's nothing I can do to help you"...and thats all there is too it. Too often people treat investing their dollars like a teenage girls treats losing virginity. Then you get used to it and realize its not a big deal and if you do it responsibly, you will be fine. The market can and does change, plan for it and be prepared, but dont let that distract you from acting today. I mean, if you are super worried about the valuation, but otherwise really want to own Costco, or Amazon, or whatever....just buy a damn put lol.

At least from my observations, there is an inherent flaw involved in assuming certain types(again, high quality, big moat) of businesses are "priced for perfection" and need to "execute superbly" in order to "grow into" their valuation. The past decade+ we've heard that about....Amazon, Tesla, Intuitive Surgical, and yes, Costco, just to name a few...and at the end of the day the real returns have far exceeded the "if they do this its possible to get a 7-10% IRR but its more likely than not that investors will be disappointed" projections. Which in many cases, we've been hearing forever now. Great businesses generally do execute superbly. They capitalize on market opportunities, and they kind of run themselves to a certain degree. Thats the advantage to buying companies like this. Ive literally been hearing for a decade+ that Costco is "expensive"...If something is "always expensive" than more likely than not, IMO, its not really expensive, thats just the price you have to pay for it. Otherwise you will never own it. The stock market, to a degree, gives an investor a big advantage. You can go try to buy the highest quality private business in your neighborhood. If you pay $100M for $250k in earnings, it is very likely you will do poorly because you have no exit but to a greater fool and the cash flow is poor. But in the public markets, over the long haul, there market seems pretty efficient and when you have a multi billion dollar company doing hundreds of millions in ADV over a multi year period, with many ultra educated and sophisticated investors participating in the market, I find it hard to rationalize the claim that you're just buying hot air. I also think even 5%-7% annually is hardly anything to scoff at...Bonds offer nothing, Treasuries are a waste, and the other alternatives are slim. Probably a reasonable separate topic but I find it bizarre how despite record cheap money sloshing around, everyone thinks everything out there is either expensive, or investable. Stock, Bonds, commodities, real estate, currencies....Everyone has more cash than they no what to do with but no one wants to buy anything? In lockstep with the MSFT example, a lot fo times even the best companies do tend to trade with a big anchor to the indexes. I mean for the 20 year stretch MSFT didnt do much(only 4x), but what did the SPY do? Even less...The best in breed companies are basically just more insulated ways to capture returns without the risk if you are able to avoid secular declines and bad management.

Valuation always matters no matter what you buy. Investing is about getting more than you pay for. MSFT and CSCO and many other companies were great business in 2000, but their multiples were unsustainable. MSFT was trading at 70+ PE‘ and went to < 10x PE‘s 10 years later. Their fundamentals weren’t even bad 10 years later, although the narrative followed the stock price down of course. Mr Market had been very generous with multiple expansion for some business lately and of course there is a narrative to go along with it. We will find out if this time is different. If you use the most extreme scenarios to make a point one will always find a way to be deterred, but even here, its kind of startling how much had to go wrong or be done poorly in order to not do "ok", and even still, the case is weak. In the worst case scenario you bought everything you were capable of allocating at MSFT's dot.com peak and at CSCO's; whatever. You never buy another share(for whatever reason) and to be simple lets say Joe Schmuck put $10k in each. 20 years later MSFT has quadrupled and CSCO is down about 50% with neither reflecting any dividends paid....surely over the course of the past 20 years, theres a whole lot worse things that could've and have happened to folks. The $20k total is $45k...without accounting for a whole lot of dividends... Now...imagine you didnt buy at the one point in the past 3 decades where it might have been poor timing or averaged in over time and allocated capital somewhat sensibly? One of my favorite aphorisms about investing is that more money has been lost preparing for the crash than has been lost in crashes. Along with this I would add that more money has been forfeited by people being picky about valuations when the investment case otherwise, is obvious. If you think about it, the idea of missing 100s or even 1000's of percentage gains over the long haul because you were a cheapskate and were waiting for a 5-10% discount...is pretty stupid. I have an investor who was reminiscing about how he could've bought, and was very close to buying, BRK.A shares for $1,200 each in the early 80s but just couldn't bring himself to do it because earlier in the year it was in the $600s or something like that.... So if you stick with quality companies....valuation really doesnt matter over the long haul. Markets are always adjusted and quality will always be acknowledged. The examples above, assumes everything that can go wrong does go wrong, capital is allocated as stupidly as possible, as you still have $45k plus dividends from an initial $20K investment two decades ago. Thats not really a boogeyman I'd recommend being scared of.

When it comes to special companies like COST, valuation DOES NOT MATTER! I was long in the camp of "bbbbbbut the valuation". In March I threw in the towel and decided to just buy a position around 290 and appreciate it for what it is; a great company. The people who have worried about Costco's valuation, have consistently missed out on the opportunity to own it...much to their dismay.

Finished building a bit of a position in GEOS. Liquidity is a bitch in this one but its an incredible setup. Trades at half of an understated book. No debt. cash + conservative estimate on RE currently equates to about $5 per share. Yea I know O&G suck. I agree. But this is basically a free call option on anything happening at these prices. Including the two new activists forcing a sale/liquidation.

Agreed. They were close to a deal in January apparently, so we shall see. They have balance sheet options. I'd love to see maybe something like a $10M repurchase authorization and then $20-30M of land acquisitions.

Yea Ive spoken with a good % of the shareholder base over the years and I am yet aware really of anyone who weighs the O&G/fracking as anything but a free option. I did see one writeup a while ago with a super bull case in which it could account for $1 per share of NAV. Its just kind of there, but not material IMO. They are not a homebuilder. They prep the lots but have contracts currently with 3 national builders and profit arrangements with all. There's currently 7 national builders looking to get involved in phase 2, which a couple years out should include over 1M sq/ft of commercial. The main asset is the water rights/servicing. This is a very conservatively managed company that basically has a whole lot of optionality, great inflation protected assets, and a pristine balance sheet. My only guess on the underperformance is really just a few of the larger legacy holders still lightening up and perhaps a bit of an unwind from the October - March rally where the stock literally never had a down day. But IDK. I'm good all day with this one here at $9.

So a bit of anecdotal color. I put on the big boy pants this week and ventured out into the great unknown hoping not to catch covid but instead check out what a few local malls look like in todays day and age. I stopped by Rockaway Mall, which is a Simon property. IMO this is property one of their worst locations, with maybe only the Toms River or Tippecanoe being worse. This is probably a classic example of what will be happening to most malls...but the location featured a Sears that several years ago shut half their store and repurposed it with half remaining and half becoming a Raymour and Flanigan. Well, now that half Sears is closing. So is the Lord & Taylor. There is also a JCP which is still open but likely facing the same fate. Inside, I noticed that probably 30% of the stores are empty. Whats left? A good chunk are things like GNC, Men's Wearhouse, a number of cell phone providers, and things of that nature. So indeed pretty gloomy. Traffic for a Tuesday was poor, which I suppose is to be expected. I also stopped by Short Hills, which is a Taubman Mall, and probably the exact opposite of Rockaway. Its probably a top 5 mall in the US. And it was vibrant, remarkably packed for a Wednesday, and had next to no vacancies. New stores from the last time I was there were noticeable, including Hermes and yup, Peloton. So all in all, out of the limited sample size, what I saw was largely consistent with what seems to be out there. The top tier malls will do well. The ones that lack luster will no longer likely function as traditional malls.

Bought some of this too last couple days. Also added to WM and V today. On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is. They are monetizing their land effectively and growing recurring revenue at a very high rate for the foreseeable future. Dan Kozlowski has been adding like a madman to an already significant stake which is encouraging as well. Given the balance sheet strength, I'd like to see a buyback put in place, as do a number of shareholders...many of which have passed this along to Mark. Either way, phase 2 should be announced next quarter which will provide another tailwind in terms of tap fees and lot sales. This is currently my 2nd largest position at a bit under 20%.

This is pretty cool. Great value too, compared to a certain someone's Short Seller Skool courses for a few thousands bucks...

Re bought some NOV IWM puts. Also added some more AAPL puts. Added some JBGS yesterday.

Trimmed INFO, CRM, FB, GOOG, DPZ Basically the heavily margined, too stubborn to index, quality stuff to raise some liquidity for the coming 6 week home stretch.

Yup, same. Probably the most substantial increase Ive seen since being there.

Why would GM walk? Supposedly they didnt give up anything!

Greg, it cracks me up. Much of my family thinks i am a right wing lunatic :-) In terms of Trump i simply cannot understand the logic people use. You ask for proof that he lies at a historic rate. Below is one link. It is irrefutable that Trump lies at a historic rate. Many web sites have documented this (are they perfect? Do they sketch an accurate picture of his behaviour? Yes). Many people have looked in to this. If someone wants to answer this question it is very easy. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracity_of_statements_by_Donald_Trump Anyways, i am just trying to understand the logic of Trump supporters. And until someone provides some i will continue to shake my head in disbelief. But i will try and remain inquisitive and open minded :-) ‘When the student is ready the teacher appears.‘ I am trying to be the student when it comes to understanding Trump supporters. But i guess i am not ready yet. PS: do i think Biden has the onset of dementia? Perhaps. Is Trudeau a poor leader? Yes. Leaders are not perfect. But please, be rational. Call a spade a spade. Yea look, Ive said it before and have no problem saying it again. Trump is POS human being, from what I can ascertain. But the character of a politician has never effected my life. Their policies do. The laws that parties impose upon people do. Taxes do. If nothing else, this is one pretty huge lesson to be learned from COVID. NYC will be learning it the hard way for the next decade most likely. Ive never personally given any weight to what a president/senator/governor has said or thought. I dont care. I live my life and try to drown out the noise. When it comes to supporting a position, the options in America are democrat or republican. If there was an instance where an independent or third party has a chance, I would heavily consider that. Until then, its ham sandwich or boca burger....Neither my favorite but make do with what we have.

LOL and then cwericb finds a way to say that isn't what was said or implied..... #irrefutablefact! #200K!

Viking, out of respect, as unlike many others you are a high quality poster who does contribute to this forum in a positive way.. I will attempt to address your question but kind of point out that I was mainly referring to cwericb's claim that the opinion(which you are entitled to) you stated, was an "irrefutable fact". As cubsfan sarcastically pointed out, it isn't really a yes/no question. No more so than "is chocolate ice cream better than vanilla, yes or no?". Or stating that "the new Haagen Dazs flavor has a historic amount of chocolate in it!"....Its subjective and laden with interpretations. Unless: 1. "historic rate", "far greater than other political figure in US history"...do you have data outlining the number and type of lies told by all 45 presidents? Is this just what they say in public, or also private? How was this data obtained and is it consistent in its application amongst all 45 presidents? 2. Ardent supporter of science....Honestly, I have no clue. Like I said, I dont know the dude and at best these are just interpretations we make based off the information that gets fed to us. I mean, I dont even know whether or not people I do know consider themselves staunch scientists or supporters of science. Its kind of an odd thing and not exactly relevant to most things unless you are a scientist by career or hobby. You know who is a scientist and ardent supporter of it? Anthony Fauci. Who for a long time was adamantly against wearing masks. Yet is a hero to the anti Trump crowd...except for when he speaks positively of Trump, then he is ignored. I could do the same for 3-7 but I think you get my point. Facts are indeed irrefutable and indisputable. The Yankees currently lead Toronto 7-1. Fact. Gerrit Cole is an overrated bum who benefited from playing for a cheating organization and now gets tons of run support playing for a team that buys all its championships and thats why he is currently the winning pitcher for the game.....see how one is clean and clear and the other is tainted by adjectives and subjective interpretation?

Of course there is all that. But on a much simpler, almost elementary level, it says a lot when we have people confusing adjective filled opinion and subjective observation, with fact. For instance, do you believe Trudeau, or Biden or Obama are compassionate people? If yes, do you know them personally? Have you ever met them? If not, then what? You are just putting your faith in their "presentation" to the public...which is surely well scripted, prepared, and practiced. But you fall for it anyway. And conclude they are "honest", "compassionate", etc despite knowing nothing about them on a personal level. Even the politician, ala Corey Booker, out on the streets on Thanksgiving, giving out food....turns out it was scripted, and leaked to the media and paparazzi...for publicity. But some people fall for it. "I know he is a great guy!"...LOL...and he "knows" you fell for it. At the end of the day, people's issues with Trump are about style. Some simply prefer their scumbag politicians put on lipstick, tell them what they want to hear, and metaphorically fine dine them before they fuck them. To each their own. Today was a big day for the liberals....ZOMG 200,000 DEATHS!!!!!!!! #Donnydidit!

LOL, we've reached a whole new level when things like "everything he says is a lie", "your leader does not believe in science", and most of the other 1-7 are now considered "irrefutable facts"....

I don't doubt your position, but I think you may be disappointed. The behavior that Nikola has engaged in pretty much standard behaviour now. The regulators didn't do anything about it. Why do you think they'll start now with Nikola? What I'm really surprised at is the lack of DD from GM on this. Don't they have an army of lawyers? This has serious egg on face potential for GM. Bara is probably looking to kill someone right about now. Na bro. They got something for nothing. Great deal! It is not surprising at all. GM is a company chasing its tail and controlled by the labor unions.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/apple-ceo-tim-cook-pressed-001912518.html Tim Cook “I think this virus caught the world by surprise” Who wants to criticize Tim? Come on! Who wants to be a homophobe? Also interesting on WFM While productivity is possible at a distance, Cook said, “it’s not like being together physically.” The company’s gleaming, circular Apple Park building was designed to foster creativity and serendipitous interaction between employees. “I can’t wait for everybody to be able to be able to come back to the office,” Cook said, though he added, “I don’t think we’ll be able to return to the way we were because we’ve found that there are some things that work really well virtually.”

Yup, yup. And then if they do make an appearance it will be to contort the arguments they were previous making. Much like the US vs Italy one.

The upside on some of these is huge, but it is definitely not happening, barring a buyout, anytime soon. As such, I am just buying often, in very small size, over and over. There is no urgency, especially as many flirt with dividend cuts. Expect dead money is right.