Gregmal

We can only hope. But there is still risk that the companies then take the hint, much like Apple and others did in March. I dont think too many CEOs want to get on a new administration's bad side 2 months into the term. The flip side, is we will see stimulus on steroids if Biden wins.

Yea I actually just exchanged messages and emails with a few folks over the weekend and this morning on this rising risk. We are entering flu season. Everyone has their minds made up about a second wave. The EU countries are already chomping at the bit to lock everyone down again(MOAR POWER!) Lockdowns kill businesses. So that will have some adverse and material effect. Now what if Biden wins? One of his first actions upon entering the office would be shutting down the country from January til June....I wouldn't "go all cash". But I'd put some trades on that compensate you for this risk. Does the US federal government actually have the authority to lock-down businesses and recreational sites within the 50 states? SJ Per the constitution, I do not believe they do. But they doesnt really matter to most of these people. Executive orders and work arounds will allow them to accomplish this, if they wish to, which they have already hinted at.

Yea I actually just exchanged messages and emails with a few folks over the weekend and this morning on this rising risk. We are entering flu season. Everyone has their minds made up about a second wave. The EU countries are already chomping at the bit to lock everyone down again(MOAR POWER!) Lockdowns kill businesses. So that will have some adverse and material effect. Now what if Biden wins? One of his first actions upon entering the office would be shutting down the country from January til June....I wouldn't "go all cash". But I'd put some trades on that compensate you for this risk.

Not sure how I feel about this, and yes, overlooking certain algorithm produced results are necessary. But really? Ad campaigns for flex space? https://www.esrtturnkeysuites.com/info?utm_source=Nypost.com&utm_medium=Turnkey_Banner_Ads I've leased multiple NYC and NJ offices over the past decade so yea I'm probably the type they are targeting for this stuff...but I find it an interesting read through. Must be tough if you're using Seeking Alpha, IBD, NY Post, etc to run spam ads for office space.

Its funny because in respect to both your comment, and what Spek stated earlier, the pitch for Barra was that she was a GM lifer. A true engineer, who understood the company. Rather than a WS suit with an MBA...

I get the thesis with sports teams in general...they are trophy assets that keep going up in value because billionaires don't have anything better to do with their fortunes. Most of these teams don't generate much in the way of cash flow (probably except NFL due to non-guaranteed nature of contracts), so it's kind of like owning gold where you hope that there's a bigger fool who wants the team for glamour. There may be a more fundamental angle to this, but I guess I prefer assets that cash flow or have a reasonable expectation of cash flowing. In the case of MLB specifically , you're owning part of a sport that has an aging fan base and while I wouldn't bet anything on this, the long-term bear case would be that some of these sports become way less relevant and are displaced by alternatives (gaming/esports, soccer). The Braves specifically have a pretty decent chunk of associated RE which is being developed and that makes them a little more unique here. Especially in Atlanta, which is one of the great growth beds in the US.

This is just part of the dance when things go south. They almost always get settled. Dow/Rohm while not exactly the same, is probably a reasonable situation worth getting familiar with. The GFC actually caused real damage, and it still got done. Thats what the market is saying he with TIF and also TCO.

Closed out some AAPL puts, rolled down the chain and out a few weeks. Moved some to cash. Bought a little PIC, JBGS. EDIT: sold most of the PIC after hours. Too easy with these.

I am sure the pussies will find those jokes offensive.

While its never a good idea to ignore things outright, I would simply ask folks if they know who is behind Empire Financial research? No, it is not "the guy who called AAPL at $1.60" like the spam adds disingenuously say. It is the guy who blew up his hedge fund while basically mimicking Bill Ackman's trades(back when Ackman was killing it, pre VRX) and now sells newsletters. A shameless self promoter and attention seeker.

Bought some more JBGS and also a trading position in SBE after the charging station announcement. This will probably be the next hot potato SPAC.

On market crashes and "calling them"...anyone have any data on the average amount of time the "crash caller" ends up waiting for the collapse? And also the gains forfeited by doing so? Versus the tiny number of people who happen to be going all in at exactly the wrong moment and how long on average it takes to get back to even?

Form 4 City over here lately. Been buying a good bit of this and will continue to recycle capital/add into it. Thanks for bringing this one up. It is a gem.

interesting. what was pre-announcement stock price? $40s. But the above deals have faded quickly. It was more or less free money. No deal is getting nixed the same week it is announced. Next week's expiry has diminished as well.

There was even quite a few threads started right after COVID basically screaming about the housing market being fucked. Well located suburban RE, is more or less teflon.

There is often a misperception that you are either a participant in the bubble and bound for doom, or you sit on the sidelines and wait to get rich after it implodes. The truth is there is very much in between, and there are many ways to dance and enjoy the party without blowing yourself up. There is also, often, quite a bit of time spent waiting/doing nothing while the party goes on. Why waste that time? As a BRK shareholder, moves like this one and RH, make my happy. If they were doing this with billions....yea that would change the profile for me. But taking shots on high probability trades is a good thing. Simply putting the Berkshire name behind something, has historically shown to be a valuation booster. I'd gander that is part of the reason this IPO is so hot. Monetize that more often!

Without any take on what the women is saying...all I would add is that it is ultra dangerous to simply write off people who are being silenced because the media is trying to discredit them. Twitter today blocked the women. What a shitshow that is becoming. If we dont like what you have to say, we censor you. Playing with fire with that.

God damn it. The obvious was obvious. One can talk about the lockup, but a 100% head start aint bad. Perhaps now that Berkshire is doing it, people will dare to think(and maybe even venture) a little outside of their comfort zone.

Keep being as asshole. Its informative. The phenomena is easily explained as the Ghosts of Sear's past. All the lunacy and delusional there just carried its way into this, probably because there is nothing left over there. Combining what you and pupil have said, why bother here? If you have something that may at best resemble some combo of UE or SPG or something in between, why not just go there? And if you want some high leverage bet, why not just go to those and buy slightly in the money LEAPs?

Cramer is generally a pretty good contrarian indicator. Not to say he isn't capable of valuable insight, but he tends to avoid ever taking unpopular positions with respect to what investments he recommends. "Dont buy C because it cant buyback stock for a year"? I mean thats the definition of short sighted. I'd probably add real estate to this list. Its quite bizarre when you see things like VNO or SPG, clear cream of the crop companies with best in class assets and you still have people finding excuses even at these valuations not to invest. On one end the top performing companies are "too expensive", on the other end, value stuff has "too many problems"...the stock market isn't for everyone I guess. The bull market has probably psychologically scarred a lot of people in ways they dont even realize. Its so common now to see even "investors", avoid things because "they might go down" next week or month. But this should be to the advantage of the patient and astute. Banks, while not my favorites, will continue to gush cash. I typically avoid any type of energy stuff but even there, its definitely appealing and if I was sitting on cash I'd certainly be looking in that space. So in summary, I think Cramer is just catering to the obvious...not many people know how to invest anymore, and even those that think they are, have 1-3 month time horizons...

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/empire-state-realty-trust-signs-63-000-square-feet-lease-in-stamford-ct-301131701.html Dead...

BBBBUT! They got something for nothing! Never a free lunch. Looks like they got had for publicity, resources, and labor....They'd be lucky, if even able, to unload their entire stake for 50c on the dollar tomorrow. The beauty of these SPAC deals for the smaller investor is the strategically placed shares/ownership structure. Creates a very tight float and thats why you see these crazy blastoffs on occasion(or recently, like every other day). But for GM, good luck unloading anywhere in the universe of current bid.

I mean 50% of the entire workout universe is a little bonkers. But hey, you never know. What I do know is that many people go to the gym with friends. Many go to get out of the house/office. Many go for the atmosphere. This can not be replicated online/at home. Additionally, how much of the TAM is compromised by the household subscription? In other words, how much of that TAM makes up people with similar interest/an active household? If the husband, wife, a one of the teenagers is a hardcore fitness enthusiast(excuse my use I the traditional family, dont be offended..) thats great value for them, but poor value for PTON relative to the single career focused female living by herself. Or the new mother determined to get back into shape with the fat husband who never gets off his ass. Sure, they have levers, but just assuming they'll take huge share of the entire gym goer universe is a little bit of a stretch. This is also the flaw in the Netflix comparison. America is a fat and lazy country. Sit on you ass and chill with a huge video catalogue is definitely not the same market or value proposition as ride a bike and sweat hard for 30 minutes at 3x the monthly cost. The biggest thing with working out/gym memberships is that a very large number of those people really do not enjoy going, at all, which eventually leads to fatigue with the product/service. Where I would focus, but hey its just me, is pushing hard for partnership subsidies for users much like AAPL has with the iPhone through carriers. Perhaps offer incentive for employers/health insurance providers to make this available to people in exchange for some sort of benefit. IE lower rates as it promotes a healthy lifestyle or whatever. Find someone to make $2k upfront affordable the same way AAPL found a way to make $1200 phones consumable every 24 months. Otherwise, the user base, at least in my eyes, is much smaller than people seem to believe right now, at a $25B valuation. Buying $100 leggings(LULU) or $7 lattes(SBUX) is much different than spending what for most folks is 1-2 months rent on a stationary bike...

Monday’s and Fridays less productive? I would like to know what’s the difference to being in the office then? Liquor supply 25 ft away vs down the block?

I did a few of these as well. Thanks guys. Keep the ideas coming here.