Gregmal

Good article on the accounting https://seekingalpha.com/article/4368458-q2-retail-reit-apocalypse-headline-numbers-dont-mean-squat "As shown above in my prior table, accounts receivable balances at Simon Property Group are low compared to peers. Management commentary matches what is seen in the financials. Meanwhile, the tone from other teams is decidedly a bit more aggressive. That might be due to management style, it might be due to more stress because they themselves have going concern worries, or some combination of the two."

Ive always thought using replacement cost was misleading and just a sales tactic for some RE assets. There's a big difference between buying a big box type ATT and WFC campus(or for instance see Toy R Us headquarters as shining example) at a fraction of replacement, and say, buying a SF or a small retail shop well below replacement. The big office campus can sell for half of replacement, but if you dont pin down the area, and you lose the single tenant, well...you've got a lot of space no one wants and not a lot to do with it but pay taxes or eat substantial renovation/demo costs. Whereas a moderate sized retail space can be released with ease, converted to a different use, etc...theres value there. SF, if someone can live there it works, and if the building + land cost is greater than what you can acquire the existing for, its kind of a no brainer.

Taleb was sooo last week. He/she/they have apparently learned about "false equivalency" recently and now EVERYTHING is apparently an example of false equivalency.

Theres "good people on both sides" lol. Viking and some others have been reasonable and valuable here. I dont think Canadians in general have it out for America. There is again, cultural differences, and there is also Trump. He's very divisive and I dont think its a Canadians hate America thing as much as it is the fact that Trump has basically gone after every country we associate with in an attempt to squeeze out a few schekels in favor of the USA. Its bound to piss people off. There is also probably a little bit of little brother syndrome as well. I'm still waiting for all the lockdown countries who now supposedly "think less of the US" bc of covid to keep having flare ups...while we get on with our business because we let the thing run its course. Of course theres also the folks who continue to shift narrative. Dalal is always right about everything! He predicted more COVID cases and death will come tomorrow and by golly, I think he may be right. Of course when he's wrong, the evidence quickly disappears or gets modified. I definitely doubt the doctor claim. At best, psychiatrist. I wouldn't even give him dentist. At worst he's an academic with a PHD who demands the title...we all know about those..

I thought the interesting part on Penney was that they received a few higher offers...but BPY and SPG holding the leases gave them an angle to play that others couldn't. Will be interesting here for sure.

I utilize brokers often as a way to learn about different markets. You have to do proper DD otherwise you'll waste time talking with pikers. But theres ways to learn who the big guns are and these people have immense value and connections. And, as is true with any broker, they are almost always willing to talk to you because its their job. For instance, in April, I was talking to a guy here about some Newark/Jersey City area CRE, and he goes "no one is buying anything right now. Why would they when you can get Vornado where its trading?" Funny, but also partially accurate with a lot of the private market feedback I got. Public markets are a much better all around investment right now.

Stifling competition could also be a good thing. High barriers to entry for a low barrier to entry biz is definitely part of the secret sauce here. Especially in MA. I am not an expert on the licenses, but there could also simply be a market for sitting on them. Where I live, liquor licenses are impossible to get. There's 19 total issued. Theres maybe a fraction of that number of actual stores. A select group of people own a handful. The going rate is about 3x what it costs to buy one from the town; IF the town chooses to issue you one...which is, as I said, a non starter.

Yup. I was just gonna keep my mouth shut, as I always jinx it. But Sandelman is a bit of a bossman. Either that or selling pot is a great business. I probably think its the later more than the former. But as a shareholder....no complaints here.

Aaaaaand, at the same time, out of the other corner of the mouth, Trump is responsible for 160k+ deaths! If Trump is responsible, so are governors, no? Probably even moreso. Or...there's other factors at play, such as density, etc.... LOL you guys cant even be consistent. Yup, entertainment.

Totally off topic but Lightning-Jackets just confirmed, even without fans...theres nothing like playoff hockey.

Bought a few Oct VIX $35 calls as my August ones roll off worthless. Also bought a small bit of BTI.

I just remembered Mike Milbury's tenure with the Islanders. LOL

Look at what Chicago/Boston/Tampa did with respect to trades and drafting and how it prolonged their peak years, as an example of the other side of management.

Simply having the number 1 overall is great for marketing, merchandise, and(not that they need it) ticket sales, if nothing else. The overall direction of the team is definitely, up. I think Edmonton is a mix. They did have some awful management issues. Buts its also not as though they didnt have some bad luck. Nugent Hopkins never bulked up and stayed healthy. Yakupov was a typical Russian bust. But they also were guilty of self inflicted injuries. The Hall trade. The Lucic signing. Talbot. If I am not mistaken, they also had the Barzal pick and traded it for an already established draft bust...

The China and Russia vaccines will probably be vilified by the left as an election interference serum....

OK, fair enough. I took "few weeks" and didnt include early July as thats over a month ago. But this still has what to do with my original point? How does this compare to what NY/NJ numbers looked like during the peak?

Do the demographics, land mass size, population, population density etc too. NYC has a population density of 38,424 per square kilometer NZ has a population density of 15 people per square kilometer. Why dont you post a twitter link on the data from Antarctica to really hammer the point home. This is all thats left at this point, for the boys who cried wolf.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/10/thousands-gather-for-wild-rave-at-prospect-park-in-brooklyn/ Social distancing in NY. But we still cant get an indoor restaurant reservation...

That's quite the claim. For something so obvious, I'm sure you'll have no trouble providing us with the evidence. Perhaps, but at what cost? Texans have been travelling to neighboring states over those weeks to escape such onerous requirements. Somewhere between 5-10k Texans died from COVID in the past few weeks. I guess these are necessary sacrifices to the COVID-god, so the rest of Texas can drink in air-conditioned bars without wearing a face mask. There have been 8K TOTAL covid related deaths in TX since this whole thing started. That is simply not true.

I mean I dont think anyone is going into the Q expecting dazzling, tailwind driven numbers. Certainly wasn't the expectation a few months ago, nor the expectation at a $6x.00 print. But the numbers being reporting arent different than whats reported across the board. Everyone was government mandated shut for April, most May as well, and many March. So Q1 you got a hint of the impairments coming as far as rent checks being received. Q2, at best half the Q was nil. What you and the analyst are referring to, correctly, is indeed "hot air", but its also industry standard for reporting. Why would they be reporting differently than everyone else has to date? You come to an agreement on deferrals, or lease extensions, or in some cases amendments that make the lease non rejectable, it gets thrown into the column of "received". So its accounted for in some cases upfront when yea, there is an extending risk that paying back 2 months in the back half of the year never happens...but this is much less a concern with a normal store than it likely is for a movie theatre, gym or bar. Is this bs accounting across the board? Probably, but its the same exact terms the banks/lenders use/have used, even pre COVID for most covenant related issues. A LOC with a XX day delinquency trigger is not tripped despite non cash payment if there are renegotiations, abatements, or modifications related to a lease extension. The same type of stuff we're talking about here. So "good"? OK, sure whatever. Same way VNO, SLG, BAM, every single other company didnt report an aesthetically "good" quarter. If this is the "disaster"/kitchen sink/end of world Q....The sky isn't falling after all. Thats good.

Rangers just won the draft lottery. "Lafreniere, long-considered the consensus No. 1 pick and who has drawn comparisons to future Hall of Famer Sidney Crosby, had 35 goals and 77 assists for 112 points in 52 games last season with Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)." Probably won't be a huge impact next season, but the Rags will almost certainly be a premier team 2-5 years from now with the rebuild they've now put together. Good for hockey, good for MSG. (Hate it as a Devils fan)

Call was decent. Muted on the Amazon stuff but indicated worst was seemingly behind it(duh), although still will be issues with certain tenants. See Gap... but thats a case of scumCo trying to milk the situation rather than inability to pay. Frankly if I was DS I would just lock all the doors at Gap, Old Navy and Banana. Take a hike chumps. Otherwise seemed pretty honest about the challenges ahead and also the opportunities. Expecting to have the original capital outlay from JV's returned within a year. Only malls not open are predictably in CA. Deferrals and abatements are largely par for the course/industry standard, and at least at face value, came in better than most peers. If this was the doomsday quarter....yea. Sign me up.

can you be more specific? I read Third Avenue's old thesis to get an idea of the crown jewels. They pointed to Honolulu (complete and included in the numbers), Santa Monica (JV'd and unleased at the moment but the JV was at $1000/foot and will be a hiqh quality asset, San Diego (already covered) and Aventura (already covered). I then looked at the locations in every state in which i have some knowledge (ie I live in Maryland, where do they have maryland locations? I ) and couldn't find too much that inspired me. Looked in a few other states. I know the Boca location, etc. Where are the jewels? and how much are they worth? I have no doubt that over the long term many of SRG's locations will be and are worth more than the EV/foot or EV/eventual foot, but I struggle to see why SRG's equity holders will benefit. Berkshire's loan is in violation of covenants. Its simultaneously high enough rate to take all of SRG's economics, but too low to be attractive to PE/opportunistic capital. help me out. What are the multiple levers? thus far these are the levers I see: 1) deferring cash interest with Berkshire so that it accrues at 9% instead of 7% 2) not paying their suppliers / (note the $25mm in increase in payables making operating cash flow look $25mm better than it would in 1H2020) 3) selling their income producing properties for a 6% cap (pretty good!) at the pace they can, but selling something at 6% to pay off something at 7% isn't super exciting 4) doing more JV's, but doubt their JV partners are looking for more, given the state of things at MAC/Brookfield (to a much lesser extent Simon) Have you read the covenants and the related penalty against SRG if breached? Depends how you define crown jewels, in my mind, those are turning non=income producing assets into high quality assets. Just look for examples, like here: https://chicago.curbed.com/2018/5/16/17362108/sears-redevelopment-mixed-use-six-corners and what SRG discloses its plans for residential living across 14 sites. If you look at something that looks uninspiring, that's fine, move on. Do you think this example of turning parking lot acres into sq ft can't be replicated? https://www.seritage.com/retail/property/2300-tyrone-blvd-n/3312513/landing As an side, who cares who agrees with whom - if you listened to Gregmal and bought SPG instead of SRG you would have missed 70+ percentage points of gains in a couple of months. Regardless, there's a lease rate of high-30s. Why are folks still worried about liquidity traps, as rent collection and store openings resume? Future tenants will be of solid prospects and looking to grow. Redevelopment opportunities will take place in a post-covid world. At this point, if you don't see it, then it's too hard. LOL, SPG even from pre covid has vastly outperformed Seritage. 140 to 65(plus real distributions) and no question regarding an equity wipeout(actually raising capital at 3%)>>>>40 to 13 on the way to 0. Its funny, but on the GM thread you run in circles quoting value investors snippets about patience and stock prices meaning nothing, and now you're talking up a trading bounce? But hey, $6 more dollars and you're back to the IPO level on GM!

$2+ FFO during Q2, US mall occupancy 93%, Base minimum rent per square foot was $56.02 at June 30, 2020, an increase of 2.8% year-over-year(certainly not driven by JCP or SHLD) The Company has collected from its U.S. retail portfolio, including some level of rent deferrals, approximately 51% of its contractual rent billed for April and May combined, approximately 69% for June and approximately 73% for July with only de minimis deferrals. These percentages have not been adjusted for any rent abatements granted. Massive contrast to BPY #retailislikesuperdead

Not in the past few weeks! Otherwise, you'll get no argument from me about how bad New Jersey is. In fact as a New Yorker, I'd be happy to contribute a few lines if you'd like...shall we start with the smell? ;D Sure, not in the past few weeks. As has been said, they "ate their vegetables"... assuming you consider remdesivir a vegetable. Record vegetables eaten in March/April. 8-10% death rates...hardly the model. And now those that didnt die, are at the mercy of "I'll let you know when you can get on with your lives, but not anytime soon"....from Murphy and Cuomo...